The New American Politics thread

[ResAlien]

Maybe it showed them in an early tie? Both Democrats are easily trouncing him in all polls right now. His clown show plays to the poor fools who buy his schtick but his historically low favourability numbers look to doom him in the general.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by peter12

Ah, now it all comes out. Bit cynical, hey?

Nah. Bernie actually has been pretty busy racking up the FEC violations. Here's a nice 640 page report on it. Of note, neither the Donald or Hillary have racked up any violations at all.

http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/847/2016...0300045847.pdf

[peter12]

It's a compilation of longitudinal poll data. The latest poll shows the tie.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Nah. Bernie actually has been pretty busy racking up the FEC violations. Here's a nice 640 page report on it. Of note, neither the Donald or Hillary have racked up any violations at all.

http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/847/2016...0300045847.pdf

Well, I stand corrected.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Maybe it showed them in an early tie? Both Democrats are easily trouncing him in all polls right now. His clown show plays to the poor fools who buy his schtick but his historically low favourability numbers look to doom him in the general.

Eh? The sample of 1289 respondents clearly shows a dead tie as of May 10, 2016.

[2Stonedbirds]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Nah. Bernie actually has been pretty busy racking up the FEC violations. Here's a nice 640 page report on it. Of note, neither the Donald or Hillary have racked up any violations at all.

http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/847/2016...0300045847.pdf

Hasn't Bill been spending time visiting polling stations?

Or is that just violating state laws?

[Senator Clay Davis]

^If you were going to use a poll this one would have been better. Trump is close enough to either Bernie or Hillary he could win...but the usual disclaimer that polls this far out don't mean ####. Obama actually had virtually the same numbers against Romney in the same states that Hillary now has with Trump. Obama won them all comfortably. As amazing as it sounds given how preposterous the coverage of this trainwreck has been, most people still aren't paying attention.

Ohio

Trump 43, Hillary 39
Bernie 43, Trump 41

Pennsylvania

Hillary 43 Trump 42
Bernie 47 Trump 41

Florida

Hillary 43 Trump 42
Bernie 44 Trump 42

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps...16_Sw4b42d.pdf

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by 2Stonedbirds

Hasn't Bill been spending time visiting polling stations?

Or is that just violating state laws?

I'm not quite sure how electioneering laws work, I do believe though it's a state by state thing. Bernie is mostly violating campaign finance rules which is....pretty hilarious considering how much he's railing against campaign finance.

[CaptainCrunch]

I think that this campaign is already a bit embarrassing for Hillary.

She was supposed to be basically crowned at the start of this, there was no serious competition at all.

Sanders, and I disagree in terms of the zaniness of his policies and maybe his grip on reality, but aren't the states split 23-18 right now in favor of Hillary?

For someone that is the heir apparent with a super power political team behind her and a slightly oily former president. Her performance in this campaign to me is almost embarrassing and making the super delegates look like theyre bought and paid for.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I'm not quite sure how electioneering laws work, I do believe though it's a state by state thing. Bernie is mostly violating campaign finance rules which is....pretty hilarious considering how much he's railing against campaign finance.

Isn't this mostly a case of Bernie getting his contributions from individual supporters while Hillary gets hers from big companies. Bernie's contributors are limited to $2700? while corporations can contribute millions. Bernie is against the Super Pacs which are unlimited so he's already fighting with one hand tied and lets face it these corporations ability to buy candidates and elections is far more undemocratic than some small contribution snafus.

Notice Bernie isn't on any of these Million-Dollar Donors lists.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...oney.html?_r=0

[2Stonedbirds]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I'm not quite sure how electioneering laws work, I do believe though it's a state by state thing. Bernie is mostly violating campaign finance rules which is....pretty hilarious considering how much he's railing against campaign finance.

That's my understanding as well, that the rules governing polling stations are enacted and enforced by the states.

In Massachusetts for example, you cannot campaign within 150' of polling stations. Hillary had to be reminded of this after Bill was kissing hands and shaking babies in the lineup.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Isn't this mostly a case of Bernie getting his contributions from individual supporters while Hillary gets hers from big companies. Bernie's contributors are limited to $2700? while corporations can contribute millions. Bernie is against the Super Pacs which are unlimited so he's already fighting with one hand tied and lets face it these corporations ability to buy candidates and elections is far more undemocratic than some small contribution snafus.

Notice Bernie isn't on any of these Million-Dollar Donors lists.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...oney.html?_r=0

Is that because he can't be bought or because the doners don't believe he can win

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Isn't this mostly a case of Bernie getting his contributions from individual supporters while Hillary gets hers from big companies. Bernie's contributors are limited to $2700? while corporations can contribute millions. Bernie is against the Super Pacs which are unlimited so he's already fighting with one hand tied and lets face it these corporations ability to buy candidates and elections is far more undemocratic than some small contribution snafus.

Notice Bernie isn't on any of these Million-Dollar Donors lists.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...oney.html?_r=0

Either is Trump(except for paying himself), but Jeb Bush sure collected a lot of money for doing nothing.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

^If you were going to use a poll this one would have been better. Trump is close enough to either Bernie or Hillary he could win...but the usual disclaimer that polls this far out don't mean ####. Obama actually had virtually the same numbers against Romney in the same states that Hillary now has with Trump. Obama won them all comfortably. As amazing as it sounds given how preposterous the coverage of this trainwreck has been, most people still aren't paying attention.

Ohio

Trump 43, Hillary 39
Bernie 43, Trump 41

Pennsylvania

Hillary 43 Trump 42
Bernie 47 Trump 41

Florida

Hillary 43 Trump 42
Bernie 44 Trump 42

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps...16_Sw4b42d.pdf

It is way too early to put much stock in state by state polls, but if we are to look at this Quinnipiac poll showing Clinton up 1 in PA, we shouldn't forget there was also a recent Marist poll that showed her up by 15.

Either way this will be an interesting election cycle. Two candidates that are widely disliked by the electorate, one of whom is trailing the ruins of the Republican Party in his wake.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Isn't this mostly a case of Bernie getting his contributions from individual supporters while Hillary gets hers from big companies. Bernie's contributors are limited to $2700? while corporations can contribute millions. Bernie is against the Super Pacs which are unlimited so he's already fighting with one hand tied and lets face it these corporations ability to buy candidates and elections is far more undemocratic than some small contribution snafus.

Notice Bernie isn't on any of these Million-Dollar Donors lists.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...oney.html?_r=0

Well obviously SuperPACs are not the same as campaign contributions. That's kinda why I'm surprised some rich Democrat hasn't started up a "Nazis and White Supremacists For Trump SuperPAC", since he can't stop them from doing it. In terms of direct fundraising by the campaigns themselves, Bernie has raised more money, spent more money, and I suppose committed more FEC violations than anyone in this campaign. Bernie's supporters are essentially donating well past the $2,700 limit and his campaign should be refunding any donations past that, but are not doing so. Maybe that's why he's now broke because he's having to write a lot of checks back to donors to rectify this.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Well obviously SuperPACs are not the same as campaign contributions. That's kinda why I'm surprised some rich Democrat hasn't started up a "Nazis and White Supremacists For Trump SuperPAC", since he can't stop them from doing it. In terms of direct fundraising by the campaigns themselves, Bernie has raised more money, spent more money, and I suppose committed more FEC violations than anyone in this campaign. Bernie's supporters are essentially donating well past the $2,700 limit and his campaign should be refunding any donations past that, but are not doing so. Maybe that's why he's now broke because he's having to write a lot of checks back to donors to rectify this.

This would work massively in Trumps' favour.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

It is way too early to put much stock in state by state polls, but if we are to look at this Quinnipiac poll showing Clinton up 1 in PA, we shouldn't forget there was also a recent Marist poll that showed her up by 15.

Either way this will be an interesting election cycle. Two candidates that are widely disliked by the electorate, one of whom is trailing the ruins of the Republican Party in his wake.

And again fivethirtyeight provides some excellent water on the polls are tied hot take. Essentially state polls aren't indicative at this point. And electoral college math only matters when the national race is within 1/2% and then less than 50% of the time.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-college-math/

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by GGG

Is that because he can't be bought or because the doners don't believe he can win

I'm surprised some of you haven't been paying attention.

He can't be bought is a mainstay of his candidacy. Average contribution is $27.

http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/wat...t-604289091743

[Dan02]

Haha just downloaded the Trumps wall app, wish I had have thought of it.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

I'm surprised some of you haven't been paying attention.

He can't be bought is a mainstay of his candidacy. Average contribution is $27.

http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/wat...t-604289091743

He claims he can't be bought. So is that true or is no one trying to buy him. Has he turned down any big corporate donations? It's easy to have no big donations when the guys trying to buy favour don't believe you can win. Had he had any chance of winning post Super Tuesday I would suspect you would see a
Different profile of donations.

How much Gun lobby money does he turn down for his senate races?