Federal Election Polling Thread

[Drak]

Just heard on the news that Victoria and the municipalities had the largest early voter turnout in BC.

[MarchHare]

On Monday night, I expect we'll see Harper resign from politics immediately barring a miracle comeback win for the Conservatives. I doubt Mulcair will resign, but I definitely see him subjecting himself to a leadership review if the NDP vote fails to meet expectations (a scenario that is looking very likely).

[polak]

Don't know if I want a Liberal majority but that's not going to change my vote.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

One thing is for sure, If the NDP numbers are accurate, Mulcair is done, and the NDP might slip back to what they were

I disagree. The NDP is basically still what they were... they just also gobbled up a lot of the Soft-Nationalist francopone vote (and seats). They'll want to keep that vote and no one in their caucus has the Quebec heft that Mulcair has.

Mulcair is their guy until at least the next election. He'll get less slack and I'm sure some folk in the backroom will start sharpening the knives but but he'll survive this (unless the Quebec vote completely abandons them on Monday... then he's out... but I don't think that happens).

[starseed]

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives...015/index.html

Eric updated the tracker, but did not include the Innovative poll which has the Liberals at 38%.

Liberal Max is now in Majority territory as the Ontario numbers are becoming more efficient in his model.

LPC 140
CPC 110
NDP 86

Final weekend coming up!

[mrkajz44]

At this rate Liberals might actually have a shot at a majority come Monday night. They've been riding a good wave of momentum here and are showing no signs of plateauing.

I've always wondered if there is a segment of the population that doesn't decide until they see a "winner" emerge, and then jump on that wagon? I sort of feel that's what happened with Nenshi, where he came out of no where and suddenly had mass support. I wonder if the same thing is happening here - undecided or "soft" votes are now seeing the Liberals pull away and now are more likely to vote for them.

Just a theory!

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I've always wondered if there is a segment of the population that doesn't decide until they see a "winner" emerge, and then jump on that wagon? I sort of feel that's what happened with Nenshi, where he came out of no where and suddenly had mass support.

Couldn't happen quite the same way. I always thought that people saw that there was some unknown guy named Nenshi who had a little momentum, looked up who he was and realized "holy cow, this guy knows what he's talking about". No unknowns in the federal race.

[Patek23]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

At this rate Liberals might actually have a shot at a majority come Monday night. They've been riding a good wave of momentum here and are showing no signs of plateauing.

I've always wondered if there is a segment of the population that doesn't decide until they see a "winner" emerge, and then jump on that wagon? I sort of feel that's what happened with Nenshi, where he came out of no where and suddenly had mass support. I wonder if the same thing is happening here - undecided or "soft" votes are now seeing the Liberals pull away and now are more likely to vote for them.

Just a theory!

I think a lot of people like too see their vote matter. I don't treat the political parties like I do my sports teams. I pay attention during the campaigning see who's platform most aligns with my interests and make my choice from there. This year for me is a lot more of a anybody but Harper time so im glad that I agree a lot with what the Liberals are saying and they are looking too be the front runners. However had Harper come out with anything that really seemed to make a lot of sense too me I might of held my nose and voted for CPC. But I like the Liberals plans to invest in infrastructure and the direction in social policies for CPC are heading down too slippery of a slope for me.

[octothorp]

Ekos is still looking like an outlier compared to everyone else, showing the Liberals ahead by less than a point (well within MOE).

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-conte...er_15_2015.pdf

[MarchHare]

EKOS had the Liberals up by four points yesterday. Is today an outlier poll or actual movement toward the Conservatives? I guess we'll have to wait until tomorrow's poll to see if this continues.

Even still, EKOS has the Liberals up 10 points in Ontario. Definitely not good news if you're a Conservative supporter.

This poll also has the Liberals in third in Quebec (one point behind the CPC) which seems unlikely.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

New Day, New Poll

Lib - 37.1 (+ 1.0)
Con - 29.4 (+ 0.2)
NDP - 23.7 (- 0.8)
Bloc - 5.0 (- 0.2)
Green - 4.5 (NC)

Seems to be breaking towards the Liberals much like it did last time for the Conservatives. A majority is becoming more possible, where it looked like a pipe dream. If the NDP's support falls to 20 %, which could very well happen, then it may end up being a big day for the Liberals.

The resignation of that guy in the liberal party seems to be causing some damage.

Lib - 36.5 (- 0.6)
Con - 30.6 (+ 1.2)
NDP - 23.5 (- 0.2)
Green - 4.7 (+ 0.2)
Bloc - 4.3 (- 0.7)

The conservatives seem to have taken a lot of support away from the Bloc and whatever the Liberals lost, while the NDP lost some directly to the greens.

3 days remain. 140-150 seeming the most likely for the Liberals, but the damage from the resignation might cost them even more seats. We won't know for another day or two with how much damage this might cause.

[bigtmac19]

It's only a two person race in my riding between NDP and Conservative. This is a huge Union area and the unions are backing NDP. I heard a Liberal radio spot this morning telling people to vote Liberal if you don't want a third party backbencher as your representation. Pretty smart, since the NDP nationally are falling so far down. I don't know how many votes it will change however. Union people around here tend to vote how they are told to vote.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

3 days remain. 140-150 seeming the most likely for the Liberals, but the damage from the resignation might cost them even more seats. We won't know for another day or two with how much damage this might cause.

I think the Liberals will fluctuate between the 38-35% over the next couple of days, but I really don't think the resignation of a campaign co-chair is really going to have that much impact on remaining days. Is it embarrassing yes, but I doubt it will change many people's votes right now, I honestly think a vast majority of the population has already locked in thier vote and won't be paying attention to the election over the weekend.

[Parallex]

Forum Poll (For whatever that's worth):

LPC: 37
CPC: 31
NDP: 24
Bloc: 6
GRN: 2

http://startouch.thestar.com/screens...8adf%7C_0.html

[Senator Clay Davis]

When the election started all the way back in August, the CPC was polling between 29-31%. Today the CPC is polling between....29-31%. They essentially have not been able to convince any additional people to vote for them in this campaign. Whatever their approach was in this campaign, it clearly didn't work at all.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

When the election started all the way back in August, the CPC was polling between 29-31%. Today the CPC is polling between....29-31%. They essentially have not been able to convince any additional people to vote for them in this campaign. Whatever their approach was in this campaign, it clearly didn't work at all.

Yeah, I think we'll here a lot in the coming months and years about what happened inside this campaign, but it certainly was an odd one. I think it was full of mistakes, but not big, mocking-Cretien's-face mistakes, but odd little decisions that achieved their primary goal, but had ripple effects that ended up creating much bigger problems than they solved. To me, the Liberal surge is largely the result of errors make by the Conservatives.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Yeah, I think we'll here a lot in the coming months and years about what happened inside this campaign, but it certainly was an odd one. I think it was full of mistakes, but not big, mocking-Cretien's-face mistakes, but odd little decisions that achieved their primary goal, but had ripple effects that ended up creating much bigger problems than they solved. To me, the Liberal surge is largely the result of errors make by the Conservatives.

I agree fully. Trudeau is not a great candidate by any stretch. Despite being a liberal supporter, I dislike him thoroughly and think he's not nearly intelligent enough to be a great long term leader. However, he has done a decent enough job to be able to show that he's competent enough to do the job and that he's a fresh face and has youthful energy, instead of being a fuddy duddy like Harper or strange like Mulclair.

The Conservatives' stick has gotten old and stale. Every time this happens, regardless of party is that they get turfed, struggle for a while and sort out their stuff before coming back a different group with a new message (unless you're republicans in the USA, who grind the same crap through the meat grinder without any attempt at even sugar coating it)

[flylock shox]

I think the polls pretty much show that the Conservatives have effectively polarized the country.

No matter what they do, 30% of Canadians will vote for them, and another 3-5% can be swayed to vote for them. But roughly 60% of voters just want them gone, and just needed to figure out which banner to unite under.

It now appears increasingly like that will be the "devil-you-think-you-know" flag of the Liberals rather than the "take-a-chance-on-me" NDP, which is unsurprising. But for most Canadians, so long as it's one or the other, it appears they'll be fairly happy.

[Bunk]

Many conservative supporters I know are either completely unenthusiastic or downright angry at Harper. If they lose, I think the sense is he'd have left the party in much worse shape, far more entrenched and narrow in its policy outlook appealing to a hardcore base that had no possibility of growing the appeal of the party to more Canadians. As a result they have a high floor but a low ceiling of possible support as well. It makes it very difficult to gain a majority under a circumstance like that.

Another mistake I think they've made is their message discipline has been extremely poor. They're all over the map. Most people that paid any attention in 2006 could name all five of their very clear campaign promises, this time it's a hodgepodge of ill thought out policies and announcements. There has also been too much emphasis on past record. As Bill Clinton points out, all elections are really about the future. That's what people care about. They should have focused more on what (and who) the future of the party is.

Lastly, with respect to Justin Trudeau - their main message of "not ready" was a mistake, especially in a long campaign. It's often that campaigns try and lower expectations of their own leader in order to make it easier for them to exceed them. The conservatives did that for the liberals! Over a long campaign, as long as Trudeau didn't start dribbling from his mouth on the debate stage and so on, he was going to exceed those expectations. And he did rather easily.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Bunk

Lastly, with respect to Justin Trudeau - their main message of "not ready" was a mistake, especially in a long campaign. It's often that campaigns try and lower expectations of their own leader in order to make it easier for them to exceed them. The conservatives did that for the liberals! Over a long campaign, as long as Trudeau didn't start dribbling from his mouth on the debate stage and so on, he was going to exceed those expectations. And he did rather easily.

They also tried to run on their economic record, which is like me trying to run on my sobriety record.