The New American Politics thread

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Jacks

They were saying on one of the politics shows (don't remember which site) that there is something like 10% or so of Sanders supporters that will jump over to Trump rather than Hillary. Most of those people are attracted to the idea of a political outsider and agree with Trump on trade and health care.

They said there was another 25% or so of them that wouldn't vote at all if Hillary is their choice. Meanwhile it has been established that Trump's core support is rock solid. I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers change around a bit once it becomes a 1 on 1 matchup.

Voting for trump in the primaries is like voting for John Scott in the All Star game, it's an entertaining way to register your general hornery disapproval of all things establishment in an utterly meaningless competition. Voting for trump in the general election is like voting for Scott as first line Center in game 7 of the Stanley Cup, it's just to important for a joke candidate and everyone knows it, there will be a vast amount of Trump supporters who won't want to admit it but will vote for Clinton once that curtain closes behind them.

Apart from anything else Trump is basically a left wing democrat policy wise, once you get beyond the racist rubbish.

[Fuzz]

I think you are really wrong on that. I'd think a lot more people would say they aren't voting for Trump, then do. Don't underestimate the hostility and vitriol in the States. Even what seam like moderate well reasoned people support Trump. I guess we will see in November.

[evman150]

It's going to be a fascinating general election campaign.

The old-guard centre-right neo-liberal warmonger vs the bigoted and fearmongering but otherwise centre-left businessman outsider.

Bush vs Gore this is not.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I think you are really wrong on that. I'd think a lot more people would say they aren't voting for Trump, then do. Don't underestimate the hostility and vitriol in the States. Even what seam like moderate well reasoned people support Trump. I guess we will see in November.

I think you're right. I think a lot of people aren't willing to publicly admit they support Trump for fear of being labelled a racist/sexist/whatever.

This guy has a ton of support. If anyone still believes it's only racist, uneducated hillbillies who support him, you're extremely naive. He's got support. Tons of it. I think a lot of people are in for quite the surprise.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by N-E-B

This guy has a ton of support. If anyone still believes it's only racist, uneducated hillbillies who support him, you're extremely naive. He's got support. Tons of it. I think a lot of people are in for quite the surprise.

Do you realize how much the above passage sounds like Trump? I'm reading it in his voice right now.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by N-E-B

I think you're right. I think a lot of people aren't willing to publicly admit they support Trump for fear of being labelled a racist/sexist/whatever.

This guy has a ton of support. If anyone still believes it's only racist, uneducated hillbillies who support him, you're extremely naive. He's got support. Tons of it. I think a lot of people are in for quite the surprise.

What makes you think so? Certainly not demographics

[Zarley]

I think we will see a Trump victory in the general election. The guy is not an idiot and knows exactly what he is doing.

[dino7c]

Some of you guys should put some money down...Trump is still certainly the underdog in a general election

[Senator Clay Davis]

I've said it a few times, but for Trump the issue with Hillary is he won't be able to control his misogyny. In controlled, scripted speeches where he can't actually read the prompter very well he'll be ok. But off the cuff, and especially at the rally's, you know he's going to dig his own grave time after time. Hillary is a bad candidate at campaigning, but she doesn't have to do much against Trump because he'll do a lot of the work for her by not being able to control himself.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I've said it a few times, but for Trump the issue with Hillary is he won't be able to control his misogyny. In controlled, scripted speeches where he can't actually read the prompter very well he'll be ok. But off the cuff, and especially at the rally's, you know he's going to dig his own grave time after time. Hillary is a bad candidate at campaigning, but she doesn't have to do much against Trump because he'll do a lot of the work for her by not being able to control himself.

That's why I'm hoping Elizabeth Warren is the VP. She's done a great job of attacking him on twitter and I don't think Trump could contain himself if she is attacking him 24/7 all over the country.

[old-fart]

If the wicked witch of the East can't beat Trump well... good lord... she can't beat anybody.

I'm happy Cruz is done, hopefully he takes a job at 7-11 and we never hear from him again (unlikely). Trump is horrible, but Cruz needs to be shot into the sun.

Trump as candidate should mean the death of the Republican party in the current form. He should lose to Hillary, in a landslide no less, and they may lose significant ground in both the Senate and the House. The scraps of what's left of the GOP will be the form of a new party, likely a far right crazy religious Tea Party where Cruz will fit right in. The Dems probably move a bit to the right to collect the more mainstream less crazy of the old Republicans, and potentially a new "Bernie Party" forms to the left of the Democrats.

What a fun time to be an outside observer.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Do you realize how much the above passage sounds like Trump? I'm reading it in his voice right now.

He's got the best support.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Do you realize how much the above passage sounds like Trump? I'm reading it in his voice right now.

So his messaging is working?

[peter12]

Also, watch for more of this:

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/hillary-c...-i-can-recall/

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by peter12

Also, watch for more of this:

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/hillary-c...-i-can-recall/

Answering a question with "that I can recall" is newsworthy now? This is literally politics 101, could you also post a story about a hockey player saying they're taking the season one game at a time?

Unrelated I found the idea that Drumpf has received almost two billion dollars worth of free advertising quite amazing. I can't help but laugh when his supporters talk about the "lamestream" media and how they want Hillary to win.


http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/03/16....html?referer=

[VladtheImpaler]

Does anybody want to set a betting line? Let's put some money on this.

[2Stonedbirds]

The Drumpf nickname is kinda lame, there has to be something better.

Hillary has Hitlery, Billary, Shillary, and whatever Trump will come up with in coming months.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by peter12

So his messaging is working?

Just you watch. He has the best messaging. You're going to see a GREAT campaign this fall, maybe the GREATEST campaign, no definitely the GREATEST campaign ever. He has the best messages, and his ads... just you watch his ads will be huge. He will make the BIGGEST ad buys, because his supporters are the best. They are probably his favourite Americans, no they are. They are his favourite Amerocans. He loves America, and he is going to make it great again. The last 8 years have been so bad, he can hardly believe it how bad they've been and he is going to stop all that and make it GREAT, just you watch.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

That's why I'm hoping Elizabeth Warren is the VP. She's done a great job of attacking him on twitter and I don't think Trump could contain himself if she is attacking him 24/7 all over the country.

Picking someone as self-righteous as Warren would only increase Hillary's unfavourables. She basically needs another "Joe Biden ten years ago", but I'm expecting she'll go younger, maybe Julian Castro or Deval Patrick.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by old-fart

Trump as candidate should mean the death of the Republican party in the current form. He should lose to Hillary, in a landslide no less, and they may lose significant ground in both the Senate and the House. The scraps of what's left of the GOP will be the form of a new party, likely a far right crazy religious Tea Party where Cruz will fit right in. The Dems probably move a bit to the right to collect the more mainstream less crazy of the old Republicans, and potentially a new "Bernie Party" forms to the left of the Democrats.

I think you have the first half right... not so much the second half.

Trump will lose to Clinton
The Democrats will regain the Senate
The GOP will lose ground in the House (but maintain narrow control over it).

The biggest upside for the democrats is that they'll likely have the Supreme court for the next 20 years or more with likely three more vacancies opening up over the next 8 years (RBG, Kennedy, Breyer).

... but I don't think we're witnessing the death of the two party system in the US. I think we'll have a two term Clinton Presidency after which the Republicans (including many in the Tea Party) will be ready to make the required compromises retreating back to W. Bush's "Compassionate Conservative" from "Pure Conservative" (which I assume will be the GOP's next nominee after Trump's "Nativist Conservative" fails). As for the Democrats I assume that they'll move somewhat left after Clinton with Democrats seeing the appetite for liberalism inherent in the Sanders insurgency.

__________________________________________________ __________

Veep thoughts...

The more I think about it the two names that are jumping out at me for Clinton are Tim Kaine & Al Franken. Depending on whether she wants to pursue a Swing State or Party Unity ticket.

Kaine is the former governor (and current senator) from a Swing State, loads of credentials, the governor of his state is a Democrat, lots of mid-west appeal. Sadly he has little in the way of Charisma.

Franken doesn't have the resume that Kaine does but like Kaine he's from a state that has a democratic governor (Unlike Warren), he's a darling of the liberal wing of the Democratic party so even if Sanders people aren't enthused by a Clinton Presidency they'd love a Franken Veep. He's funny and has plenty of charisma. Plus, if you needed someone to go down in the gutter with Trump, Franken could put Trumps "insult comic" schtick to shame. He'd be a great surrogate on the hustings. Downside... at the presidential level Minnesota is not a swing state not as experienced as Kaine.