Russia invades Ukraine

[djsFlames]

Are those former boxers alive and well?

[FlameOn]

Early map update. Russians are advancing towards Kramatorsk via Izium, Severodonetsk, and Horlivka. Kharkiv also appears to be a target for forces from Izium.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1516208000050077700

[Firebot]

Multiple reports of some rather extreme Russian losses all over the front. Lots of new photos and videos on Twitter / Reddit. Morons. Absolute morons. Russians don't have the manpower or necessary equipment to do such an attack right now on heavily fortified trenched lines, they are clearly advancing based on an arbitrary deadline, not a tactical one.

Ukrainian paratroopers destroyed a Russian motor rifle brigade overnight.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...rom-tomsk.html

Of particular note, it appears that many of the Russian soldiers on the front and part of this current wave are clear minorities from poorer regions of Russia, it is very unlikely that there are many Muscovites on the front. Also reports of Libyan militant groups destroyed.

[Firebot]

It's also raining heavily most of the week in East Ukraine. It's raining in Donetsk right now and they are doing their assault in such conditions. Such a colossal disaster. They couldn't even wait a couple of days to have dry and less muddy conditions.

[CroFlames]

Does Ukraine have the equipment, manpower and intelligence to launch eventual counteroffensives and push the invaders back to the border? I have to think at some point the tactics change from defense to offense, and with the influx of western gear and money, are they ready to do so now?

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Multiple reports of some rather extreme Russian losses all over the front. Lots of new photos and videos on Twitter / Reddit. Morons. Absolute morons.

[burn_this_city]

Leaked preparations for the Victory Day Parade.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1515804103129063429

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Does Ukraine have the equipment, manpower and intelligence to launch eventual counteroffensives and push the invaders back to the border? I have to think at some point the tactics change from defense to offense, and with the influx of western gear and money, are they ready to do so now?

No they do not, without taking some heavy casualties on their own. Russians are trenched on the Donetsk side.

They could however take back Kherson and make things difficult close to Crimea.

Those American Howitzers are an absolute must, and should be on the battlefield soon. They have a range of over 20km, long range artillery is one of the weapons that Ukraine is most in need.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Does Ukraine have the equipment, manpower and intelligence to launch eventual counteroffensives and push the invaders back to the border? I have to think at some point the tactics change from defense to offense, and with the influx of western gear and money, are they ready to do so now?

I'd imagine not till late spring/summer when more of the heavy equipment arrives. Defensive ops can be done with just smart ops, and a lot of ambushes while offensives require lots of heavy weapons to take out entrenched positions. It might take up to a month refurb a hundred tanks from storage, and another month to move them all. We just had the promise of heavy weapons less than a month ago.

Luckily with lend/lease and US airlift the transport times should get cut down a lot.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Firebot

No they do not, without taking some heavy casualties on their own. Russians are trenched on the Donetsk side.

They could however take back Kherson and make things difficult close to Crimea.

Those American Howitzers are an absolute must, and should be on the battlefield soon.

What is the probable strategy for Ukraine and the west then?

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Sun Tzu

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Multiple reports of some rather extreme Russian losses all over the front. Lots of new photos and videos on Twitter / Reddit. Morons. Absolute morons. Russians don't have the manpower or necessary equipment to do such an attack right now on heavily fortified trenched lines, they are clearly advancing based on an arbitrary deadline, not a tactical one.

Ukrainian paratroopers destroyed a Russian motor rifle brigade overnight.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...rom-tomsk.html

Of particular note, it appears that many of the Russian soldiers on the front and part of this current wave are clear minorities from poorer regions of Russia, it is very unlikely that there are many Muscovites on the front. Also reports of Libyan militant groups destroyed.

Yes this is what China did with Tiananmen, they used rural redneck conscripts from faraway regions who were poor, uneducated, indoctrinated, and whom would not have any sympathies for the students of Beijing.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Leaked preparations for the Victory Day Parade.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1515804103129063429

ah, the spoils of war. May 9th, Ukrainian looting day

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

What is the probable strategy for Ukraine and the west then?

Many of the towns on the Ukrainian side of the border are very pro-Russian, and there'd already been a civil war going on there for a decade. When Ukrainian forces cross into that territory, they lose their main advantage, which is a fiercely anti-Russian civilian population ready to take to the hills for guerilla style warfare. If anything, they face the opposing problem in those areas.

Before all this conflict happened many of those areas were already under de facto Russian control anyways, with puppet governments declaring independence. IMO, it just illustrates what a colossal waste this whole invasion was. Russia will likely walk away with some territory in Eastern Ukraine, but it's all territory they already controlled anyways.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by blankall

Many of the towns on the Ukrainian side of the border are very pro-Russian, and there'd already been a civil war going on there for a decade. When Ukrainian forces cross into that territory, they lose their main advantage, which is a fiercely anti-Russian civilian population ready to take to the hills for guerilla style warfare. If anything, they face the opposing problem in those areas.

Before all this conflict happened many of those areas were already under de facto Russian control anyways, with puppet governments declaring independence. IMO, it just illustrates what a colossal waste this whole invasion was. Russia will likely walk away with some territory in Eastern Ukraine, but it's all territory they already controlled anyways.

Russians have been very good at destroying every advantage they have so far. If they manage to throw away enough of their military force in a poorly coordinated attack, it's totally possible that they will end up with less than they started with.

I would also strongly question how pro-Russian those territories are. After all, one of the surprises for the Russians in this war has been that they have had absolutely no support from the Russian speaking population in the areas they've entered. Despite previously having fairly positive view of Russia, the war has now unified them 100% against Russian rule, and it's very likely that some of this is also happening in Donetsk and Luhansk.

Besides, those areas were never super pro-Russian to begin with. Pro-Russian militias failed to take full control of those areas despite an eight year campaign with heavy support from the Russian military, while the Ukrainian side was operating under fairly tight limitations to avoid civilian casualties and had fairly limited resources. If the area was actually as widely pro-Russian as Putins regime claims, that war would not have resulted in the stalemate that it did. It's much more likely that the population is at best split, which would be very different from the situation the Russian army was facing. (My guess is that pro-Russian segment in those areas was always a clear minority that could only keep the conflict going because it was so well armed and supported by Putin.)

I would also predict that if the Ukrainians managed to push Russian army out of those areas, the pro-Russian militias would mostly either flee to Russia with the Russian forces or give up arms and try to keep their heads down.

That of course is a very big if.

[burn_this_city]

They've already conscripted every fighting age man from those areas and used them as fodder. The entire separatist thing was astroturfed by Russians to destabilize Ukraine. They turned those regions into warlord ran ####holes and it's a major reason Russian speaking regions are fighting the occupiers. Donbas turned into an economy free nightmare for most of the inhabitants.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Itse

Russians have been very good at destroying every advantage they have so far. If they manage to throw away enough of their military force in a poorly coordinated attack, it's totally possible that they will end up with less than they started with.

I would also strongly question how pro-Russian those territories are. After all, one of the surprises for the Russians in this war has been that they have had absolutely no support from the Russian speaking population in the areas they've entered. Despite previously having fairly positive view of Russia, the war has now unified them 100% against Russian rule, and it's very likely that some of this is also happening in Donetsk and Luhansk.

I asked my UA wife this question yesterday, just to get her view of how the locals view the war and whose side they would be on. She's no army general, but has lived close to that region most of her life so she has a good pulse on the situation.

Since 2014 until now, it was probably a 60-70 UA / 40-30 RU split. Definitely lots of people who are 'pro-RU' in the sense that they speak Russian and shared much more in common than with Ukranians who live in the West. Russia took advantage of that mindset to get many people on their side.

Now, she is certain that number is much closer to a small single digit. It's one thing to buy into the pro-RU lifestyle that was preached there for 8 years. It's entirely another to massacre civilians, rape children and kidnap people who live in that region.

Whether people will take up arms and fight is entirely another story, as the civilians in that area aren't as well armed like they were in Kyiv. Truthfully we aren't sure if any kind of civilian arming took place. We didn't hear anything about it, while Kyiv seemed to get the bulk of attention and supplies.

Just a brutal situation in that region. Makes me sick to my stomach to know what lays ahead for Donbas.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Does Ukraine have the equipment, manpower and intelligence to launch eventual counteroffensives and push the invaders back to the border? I have to think at some point the tactics change from defense to offense, and with the influx of western gear and money, are they ready to do so now?

Doubtful, I mean even with the heavy equiptment Ukrainian casualties have to be high, and they have less men to give. Usually an offense against a defensive enemy means you need a advantage numerically in terms of me, equipment and artillery. Ukraine has been successful because they've been the defenders. They can sit back and bush wack the Russians, pull them into fire sacks and kill them in great numbers. A large part of the Russian casualties is because they are on offense.



While they're getting more equipment, they're struggling with manpower, they don't have a lot of troops rolling into the field. Even with volunteers, and I doubt they're getting a lot of training.

Originally Posted by CroFlames

What is the probable strategy for Ukraine and the west then?

Keep bleeding the Russians and hope the Russians give up since there isn't likely to be a regime change in Russia. Keep fighting a defensive war and force the Russian's to take large scale casualties.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Itse

Russians have been very good at destroying every advantage they have so far. If they manage to throw away enough of their military force in a poorly coordinated attack, it's totally possible that they will end up with less than they started with.

I would also strongly question how pro-Russian those territories are. After all, one of the surprises for the Russians in this war has been that they have had absolutely no support from the Russian speaking population in the areas they've entered. Despite previously having fairly positive view of Russia, the war has now unified them 100% against Russian rule, and it's very likely that some of this is also happening in Donetsk and Luhansk.

Besides, those areas were never super pro-Russian to begin with. Pro-Russian militias failed to take full control of those areas despite an eight year campaign with heavy support from the Russian military, while the Ukrainian side was operating under fairly tight limitations to avoid civilian casualties and had fairly limited resources. If the area was actually as widely pro-Russian as Putins regime claims, that war would not have resulted in the stalemate that it did. It's much more likely that the population is at best split, which would be very different from the situation the Russian army was facing. (My guess is that pro-Russian segment in those areas was always a clear minority that could only keep the conflict going because it was so well armed and supported by Putin.)

I would also predict that if the Ukrainians managed to push Russian army out of those areas, the pro-Russian militias would mostly either flee to Russia with the Russian forces or give up arms and try to keep their heads down.

That of course is a very big if.

I know it's a big piece of Russian propaganda that the Ukrainians are Nazis, and although generally compete BS, in the East its actually true. The Ukrainian government was full on supporting the Azov Battalion, who have been looting Eastern Ukraine for the last decade.

Prior to the latest war, the general population of Donetsk and Luhansk already supported the breakaway Russian puppet states.

Russian support in these two states is likely very strong. It's more than just Russian speakers, they are significant amounts of ethnic Russians in both states.

Once again, Ukraine had lost these states ten years ago. This is a pointless war that won't change anything. The Russians could have easily confined their activities to these two states and engaged Azov directly, without turning this into the bloody mess it is.

[FlameOn]

Trudeau says Canada sending artillery to Ukraine in NB press conference, details on type and how many will be released in the coming days. Maybe some of our M777s heading their way since Americans provided them with some M114 155mm howitzers already?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/can...ters-1.6423273