The New American Politics thread

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

If you think Bernie staying in the race is fool hardy how about Kasich. California here we come.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/03/politi...race-ted-cruz/

Honestly why shouldn't Rubio just jump back in now? Even after dropping out almost two months ago he still has more delegates than Kasich. But Kasich and Bernie can both say general election matchups show they're both able to beat everyone else, which is true right now. Maybe we should have a hypothetical side election between Kasich and Bernie.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Kasich staying in today is no more crazy than him staying in yesterday. He's still counting on the same thing: Trump doesn't make 1237 and they go to a convention. I'm not sure if that's actually any more or less likely now... maybe the lack of a vote split and the sense from Trump supporters that he has it in the bag mean he stays shy of that threshold. Unlikely, but Kasich's whole strategy was always unlikely.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by HockeyIlliterate

Where do you get that number?

This link: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762156.html shows that Blacks made up (in 2010) 12.2% of the population, and Latinos made up 16.3%. Combined, that's about 28-29%, and what is typically meant by the term "minority" in the voting context.



Because without that group, Hillary wouldn't have won the southern states. And that group would, by and large, vote for whomever the Democratic nominee is. So I don't give a lot of weight to their vote or to the winner thereof.

In short--if the Democrats want to grow their base, Hillary isn't their candidate.

62% of the American population is white non Latino. (US Census 2014 http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/00)

That makes the rest minority, 38%. Sure some arent voting age but even if you want to dispute that you're saying we should discount 30% of the population because it doesn't suit your purposes?

Let's rephrase your statement properly: if you don't count all the people who voted for Hillary then yes, Bernie would be doing better.

[HockeyIlliterate]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

. . . you're saying we should discount 30% of the population because it doesn't suit your purposes?.

No.

I'm saying that "we" should discount the black voters who--by and large--voted for Hillary because they are going to vote for whomever the Democratic nominee is anyway.

Which is to say---look only at those voters who might not vote if their preferred candidate isn't the nominee and look at who they voted for. Those are the voters that matter in the general election, and that is the election that truly matters.

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Let's rephrase your statement properly: if you don't count all the people who voted for Hillary then yes, Bernie would be doing better.

Again, no.

The proper rephrasing would be: if you don't count the people who would vote for the Democratic nominee regardless of who that person may be, then yes, Bernie would be doing better.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Wait... your position is that the far-left socialist candidate is the guy who will attract independent and swing voters who make the difference in the general election, while the centrist establishment candidate is the one who will attract the people who will never vote Republican no matter what?

[Dogbert]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Calling it now, Trump is gonna win the election.

Been saying that for a year now. Trump's message has essentially been that people should be proud to be as ignorant and selfish as they want, and everyone underestimated just how many Americans would latch onto that.

... And Kasich is out. Now the convention will essentially be a coronation, and I'm sure all the GOPers who trashed Trump from the start will line up to kiss his butt like the toadies they are.

[MissTeeks]

CNN saying Kasich is dropping out according to two sources:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/04/politi...out/index.html

John Kasich is dropping out of the Republican presidential race, two sources familiar with the plan confirmed to CNN.

Kasich's decision came after he improbably became the last challenger to Donald Trump, who emerged as the presumptive GOP nominee Tuesday night when Ted Cruz dropped out.


Even before winning his home state of Ohio in March, Kasich was facing pressure to get out of the race, with no clear path to victory. His campaign never became more than a spoiler run, designed to keep Trump from getting the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination before a contested convention.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Dogbert

Been saying that for a year now. Trump's message has essentially been that people should be proud to be as ignorant and selfish as they want, and everyone underestimated just how many Americans would latch onto that.

... And Kasich is out. Now the convention will essentially be a coronation, and I'm sure all the GOPers who trashed Trump from the start will line up to kiss his butt like the toadies they are.

Ayn Rand spent all that time coming up with allegories and allusions when all she really needed to write was 'Smoke'em if ya got 'em"

[HockeyIlliterate]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Wait... your position is that the far-left socialist candidate is the guy who will attract independent and swing voters who make the difference in the general election . . .

Depending on who the candidate and opposition candidate is, yes.

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

. . while the centrist establishment candidate is the one who will attract the people who will never vote Republican no matter what?

Not necessarily.

Regardless, I've said all that I have to say about this issue.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Well it appears that Hillary will get the weakest opponent in the GOP field after all. She is literally running against a clown, a depressing sideshow whose ego could fill a jetliner, a bloviating sexist nincompoop who has managed to run for president for months without presenting anything resembling a vision. His campaign promises range from idiotic to unconstitutional, and he appears to put as much thought into his campaign promises as his Twitter feed.

Yet this is the GOP candidate. I will admit, I never expected he would get even this far; frankly, that makes me a little less confident in my prediction that he will lose this fall (because I thought he would lose in the primary, so I've been wrong about him once already).

But Trump is a truly, truly, TRULY terrible candidate. If Hillary can't beat him, she can't beat anybody.

On the other side, republicans everywhere must feel so depressed. Honestly, I don't know what outcome is worse for them: a Trump loss of McGovern-sequel proportions, with down-ticket results that sweep democrats into firm control of congress... Or a Trump victory, followed by the slow realization that their brand will be forever tarnished by its association with a truly disastrous presidency that sets the conservative movement back decades.

I agree with you, but if Hillary can't manage to put away Sanders than you have to wonder how she'll fare against Trump.

Originally Posted by Vulcan

If you think Bernie staying in the race is fool hardy how about Kasich. California here we come.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/03/politi...race-ted-cruz/

Hey he basically finished in second place!

[DiracSpike]

I'm usually pretty entertained following the US election once they have their two candidates but this year is gonna be on another level. I can't decide what I'm most excited for! Trump having to give specifics on his plans? The debates? Trump's attack quotes on Hillary? Hillary haters vs Trump haters? Annoying Sanders supporters chirping from the sidelines? The collective handwringing over Trump from people on the left? Hitler comparisons being tossed out left right and center??

It's going to be a #### show of epic proportions, if I lived in the US I'd be terrified but since I don't I'll just follow it and be entertained.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

I'm usually pretty entertained following the US election once they have their two candidates but this year is gonna be on another level. I can't decide what I'm most excited for! Trump having to give specifics on his plans? The debates? Trump's attack quotes on Hillary? Hillary haters vs Trump haters? Annoying Sanders supporters chirping from the sidelines? The collective handwringing over Trump from people on the left? Hitler comparisons being tossed out left right and center??

It's going to be a #### show of epic proportions, if I lived in the US I'd be terrified but since I don't I'll just follow it and be entertained.

Yeah, it's great that what happens in the States doesn't affect us.

[DuffMan]

American politics has reached an unprecedented level of ridiculous.
Thanks Donald.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Question. Does the current status quo spur Hillary to make a quick shift to the right once she's nominated, and try to court disillusioned non-Trump Republicans?

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Question. Does the current status quo spur Hillary to make a quick shift to the right once she's nominated, and try to court disillusioned non-Trump Republicans?

One thing about a Trump candidacy is that it's going to be an election of personality rather than issues, so I don't think a shift accomplishes anything that attacking Trump on character does. I'm not sure if there's an olive-branch she could extend to moderate Republicans that wouldn't hurt her base, so it's probably just more efficient to make those voters stay home.

That said, maybe she lifts a couple fiscal responsibility measures from Bernie's campaign that appeal to both the Warren wingers and moderate Republicans.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Actually there was a poll (I will try to find it and post a link if I can) that suggested around 13% of Cruz' primary voters intend to vote for Clinton in the fall now that it is clear Trump will be the nominee. That isn't a huge number (it's a subset of a subset) but given the polarization of politics in the US, it's frankly astonishing.

By contrast, I highly doubt very many Sanders supporters will vote for Trump. Sanders has broad support among younger voters, a demographic within which Trump is incredibly unpopular.

They were saying on one of the politics shows (don't remember which site) that there is something like 10% or so of Sanders supporters that will jump over to Trump rather than Hillary. Most of those people are attracted to the idea of a political outsider and agree with Trump on trade and health care.

They said there was another 25% or so of them that wouldn't vote at all if Hillary is their choice. Meanwhile it has been established that Trump's core support is rock solid. I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers change around a bit once it becomes a 1 on 1 matchup.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Jacks

They were saying on one of the politics shows (don't remember which site) that there is something like 10% or so of Sanders supporters that will jump over to Trump rather than Hillary. Most of those people are attracted to the idea of a political outsider and agree with Trump on trade and health care.

They said there was another 25% or so of them that wouldn't vote at all if Hillary is their choice. Meanwhile it has been established that Trump's core support is rock solid. I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers change around a bit once it becomes a 1 on 1 matchup.

Five thirty eight talked a bit about that and mostly brushed it off as of incredibly unreliable don't now. What Cruz supporters say today about Trump will likely be different closer to a general election, and same with Bernie and Hillary.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Remember that the vast majority of the GOP core hated Romney and many pledged to not vote for him in the general. Then October rolled around and what do you know, most of them had fallen in line and were supporting him strongly. Generally in all politics, but especially in America, the fear of the other guy drives electoral decision making for people.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Jacks

They were saying on one of the politics shows (don't remember which site) that there is something like 10% or so of Sanders supporters that will jump over to Trump rather than Hillary. Most of those people are attracted to the idea of a political outsider and agree with Trump on trade and health care.

They said there was another 25% or so of them that wouldn't vote at all if Hillary is their choice. Meanwhile it has been established that Trump's core support is rock solid. I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers change around a bit once it becomes a 1 on 1 matchup.

On that last piece, we don't need to speculate, as the numbers are out there. Per CNN's last poll, conducted just ahead of the Indiana primary, Clinton leads Trump by double digits.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/04/politi...ion/index.html

[zamler]

CNN poll on Clinton, oh the suspense.