Airport Tunnel Rejected Again? **UPDATE** It's built!

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by Mccree

The tunnel is great and all but the closing of Barlow has really screwed Deerfoot. The traffic on Deerfoot while always bad has gotten worse since the closing of Barlow. The tunnel helps east west traffic but Barlow was north south and any word on how north south traffic will improve with a 300m east west tunnel ?

Barlow is on Airport land where it was closed. The airport authority gave significant notice to the City that they were closing it. Guess who's fault it is that nothing was ready for the closure?

When the tunnel is finished, you can take Country Hills to Barlow to Airport Trail to 36th Street until they extend Airport Trail later. There's a North-South route for you, but as was said above, Stoney is the better option.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Barlow is on Airport land where it was closed. The airport authority gave significant notice to the City that they were closing it. Guess who's fault it is that nothing was ready for the closure?

When the tunnel is finished, you can take Country Hills to Barlow to Airport Trail to 36th Street until they extend Airport Trail later. There's a North-South route for you, but as was said above, Stoney is the better option.

And if your only going into the NE (as most Barlow users did)
Métis tr is now open from Cross Iron mall to Mcknight tr/36 st.

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by Mccree

The tunnel is great and all but the closing of Barlow has really screwed Deerfoot. The traffic on Deerfoot while always bad has gotten worse since the closing of Barlow. The tunnel helps east west traffic but Barlow was north south and any word on how north south traffic will improve with a 300m east west tunnel ?

Barlow was always going to be closed, the parallel runway has been on the books for 30+ years. As mentioned above, it was the city that had all that time to plan for it and instead did nothing but sit around and wait for the day that the airport was ready to start building.

[ken0042]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Also, certain alderman still seem to think that the alternative to building the tunnel costs nothing.

What would some of those costs be? Not that I doubt you; I just want to be ready with a comeback for when my friends talk about the "1/2 billion dollar ditch."

[Slava]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Up to $295 million for phase 1 - currently under construction. I would say that this will likely be under budget, could easily be 10% or more under budget.

Phase two - in 5-8 years (my guess) $64 million (city portion) in today's dollars. (airport is putting in $20 million)


Phase 3 - in 20-30 years, city and airport to split cost 50/50 for flyover ramps. I think the total is something like $120 million, so $60 million each. Of course, this is so far in the future that the design and cost are certain to change.


I think it was added up to $414 million in today's dollars. But that number is mostly meaningless. It includes a bunch of work that would be required if the tunnel was never built, for one. Second of all, lots of it is future dollars. Thirdly, the type of construction contracts, plus the 30% contingency (normal is 10%), and a lot of money could be saved in phase one. The weather will be a factor in the final cost, but it would take a lot of things to go "wrong" to go over budget.


Frankly, Nenshi was exactly right, council had all the numbers already. Plus, for the reasons I mentioned, trying to figure out the total final cost is useless.


Also, certain alderman still seem to think that the alternative to building the tunnel costs nothing.

First, I wasn't implying that Nenshi was wrong, or that Lowe was right. It seems like you can't ask a question of Nenshi at this point without people jumping in to note that he was right. I get it. I voted for him to and I'm quite pleased with the job he has done. That doesn't mean he is beyond reproach though.

Second, if they're at $295m out of $300m that sounds good. I still doubt that it will come in under $300m (and with the rising costs of construction in general I don't feel like that is a bold prediction), but of course I'm hopeful.

Lastly, can the city really build a flyover or overpass for $60M currently? I have no idea. If that is accurate though they should be throwing these up all over the place. That $400M that they "found" this week could build half a dozen and still have money left over. You don't have to look very hard to find locations where we could use another overpass.

[Mccree]

I understand Barlow was going to closed, however I think the extra traffic on Deerfoot as a result of Barlow being closed was either not anticipated or not a concern.

The cars are lined up at each merge lane from 32nd to Beddington and I suspect a lot of cars used to take Barlow to Country Hills and now are taking Deerfoot.

The ring road helped the flow on Deerfoot but with the closing of Barlow it is back the "pre" ring road days.

[mykalberta]

The people you blame for this, are previous councils which what do you know, are the same people now wanting another review on the Tunnel.

Druh, Lowe etc.

The city knew Barlow was closing and chose not to go to the Province or Feds for a funding plan early on, what they did was when some media got wind of it, they tried to hold both levels of government hostage and openly whine about not getting any funding at the 11th hour.

[Bigtime]

During the evening rush hour northbound Deerfoot is always slow from 32nd to Beddington, this goes back years and doesn't appear any worse now than when Barlow was open.

[Mccree]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

During the evening rush hour northbound Deerfoot is always slow from 32nd to Beddington, this goes back years and doesn't appear any worse now than when Barlow was open.

I drive have driven it every day for the past 12 years. Yes it always slow during rush hour, however it was better with the opening of the Ring Road and has gotten worse since the closing of Barlow.

Anyways it sounds like no fix is coming so no point in complaining.

[ken0042]

I'm sure once the SE leg of the ring road opens in 2 years that traffic will get better. I can't see long haul truck drivers chosing to drive Deerfoot over Stoney Trail unless they plan on stopping.

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by ken0042

I'm sure once the SE leg of the ring road opens in 2 years that traffic will get better. I can't see long haul truck drivers chosing to drive Deerfoot over Stoney Trail unless they plan on stopping.

They built a Flying J along the NW portion of Stoney at Sarcee, I think? They should do that in the SE portion as well. Then the truckers really don't need to enter the City.

[You Need a Thneed]

I typed this up about a month ago, and submitted it to the Herald. I never saw it published, and I thought I would share it with the board here:

___________________________________

Re: Mayor Clashes over Tunnel (November 15), FLying High on Debt - Airport Tunnel is no Bargain - (letter, November 21), and Digging a Debt (Letter, November 18)

At the November 14th city council meeting, Alderman Lowe and some others were asking about the total costs of the Airport Trail Underpass. Mayor Nenshi claimed that they had the information, and he was correct. And of course, the numbers wouldn't look like the anti-tunnel aldermen want them to look. Let's review the numbers in detail.

What is currently approved by council is $295 million. However, according to the city's estimate, what is being built now will only cost about $284 million, and only roughly 2/3rds of that is actual construction costs. Also, the city put a 30% contingency cost into the project budget, when a standard amount is only 10%. All for a project that, despite it's size, is actually quite simple in construction methods, and relatively free of potentially delaying unknowns. It's being built on wide open land, with no existing utilities in the way, etc. in other words, the project has a good chance of being built under budget.

In phase 2, the city builds two interchanges, at Barlow Trail, and at 19th Street, and the airport authority provides $20 million of the total cost. These interchanges must be built when the city decides to connect Airport Trail to the newly opened section of Metis Trail, which will likely happen in 5-10 years. In 2011 dollars, the city's portion is approximately $60 million for phase 2.

Phase 3, which involves building extra flyover ramps to the interchanges - when traffic demands it, is likely 20-30 years away (the city's transportation department thinks that they will never be needed). The city and the airport authority have agreed to split the cost 50/50, which according to the current design, and using 2011 dollars, makes a bill to the city of approximately another $60 million dollars. Of course, in 20+ years, societal transportation requirements could totally change what is required, so no one really know what the actual dollar value may be.

If you add all the numbers together, you would get $414 million. However, that number is certain to not be the total cost of the tunnel, as the final total will obviously be affected by inflation, and possibly changes in scope. Also, this total includes more than simply the tunnel itself. It includes a significant amount of work that would be required whether the tunnel was ever built or not. Roughly $20 million of that cost is for the portion of 96th ave/Airport Trail between 36th Street and 60th street that would be needed either way. Also, even without the tunnel, future traffic volumes on Airport Trail may force the city to build those to interchanges anyway, perhaps without ANY financial help from the airport authority. Those interchanges would cost around $100 million together. So, let's call the total cost of the tunnel itself around $300 million. That includes the cost of the land, the tunnel, the road through the tunnel, and the extra costs incurred by the Airport Authority in building the new runway that are caused by this tunnel construction.

However, in order to calculate the total long term cost of the tunnel, we must consider costs that would be incurred to the city in other places, if the city would have to adapt to not having the tunnel. Country Hills Blvd, between Deerfoot and Stoney Trail NE, would have to be designed and upgraded beyond what is currently planned and allowed for. Land already approved for development would have to be purchased or expropriated. The west LRT project required the city to pay $200 million to buy up land along the route. The city would likely have to buy more land than for the WLRT just along Country Hills Blvd. By the time the traffic would become completely unbearable (and thus needed for the expansion of the road), all that land would be developed, making expropriating or purchasing the land more complicated. I imagine that the province would have to improve the Country Hills Blvd/Deerfoot Trail interchange, and the city would have to build interchanges along Country Hills Blvd as well. There are 6 or 7 planned traffic lights between Deerfoot Trail and Metis Trail along Country Hills Blvd. (See the Stonegate Landing website to see the planned intersections) Building 7 interchanges would obviously be out of the question, but there would have to be 3 to 4 at minimum, with short distances between them making complicated and expensive ramps likely.

Metis Trail would likely require conversion into a full freeway as well, whereas with the tunnel, leaving it as an expressway should suffice for many years, if not forever. That would add another 2 or 3 interchanges. Adding up the required interchanges, plus land purchases, and you will easily get to the $300 million cost of the tunnel, and likely more.

I know some of you might doubt that such an expansion of Country Hills Blvd would be required. For those people, I recommend going to drive that section of Country Hills Blvd during rush hour, and then realizing that the area up there is only 10% developed. There is a huge area of land waiting to be developed, which will add a huge amount of traffic. Considering that a significant portion of that development is industrial and commercial (everything west of Metis Trail, plus pockets along 60th Street), there will be significant heavy truck traffic. There will likely be some industrial businesses that will want to be close to both the airport, and to the new CN rail yard being built out by Conrich. Country Hills Blvd even as a 6-8 lane road seems totally inadequate to handle that amount of traffic.

So, what is the long-term-total cost of the Airport Trail Tunnel? We don't know exactly, but in all likelihood, the number is around ZERO dollars, give or take $50 million or so. Even if we say that building the tunnel would cost $50 million more than not building it, it is still a good deal to build the structure that will create the best overall transportation network, and will allow Country Hills Blvd to remain the urban boulevard that the city has planned it to be. Most likely, the tunnel saves the city money in the long term.

[You Need a Thneed]

Airport Trail Tunnel - January Update:

http://www.calgary.ca/Transportation...el-update4.pdf

[shermanator]

Calgary Sun (Beware, it's a Rick Bell column) has a new column saying the total costs (tunnel and various upgrades) are over $500 million

http://www.calgarysun.com/2012/01/20...lies-past-500m

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by shermanator

Calgary Sun (Beware, it's a Rick Bell column) has a new column saying the total costs (tunnel and various upgrades) are over $500 million

http://www.calgarysun.com/2012/01/20...lies-past-500m

Is there an alternate link that isn't the Calgary Sun (or any other Sun Media outlet) or Rick Bell that corroborates the >$500M figure? I have absolutely no faith whatsoever in the reliability of those sources.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by shermanator

Calgary Sun (Beware, it's a Rick Bell column) has a new column saying the total costs (tunnel and various upgrades) are over $500 million

http://www.calgarysun.com/2012/01/20...lies-past-500m

Oh my lord, what's worse then a Rick Bell column... a Rick Bell video...

Yikes. Someone get him a hair cut and a psychologist to accept the fact he's going bald. That comb-over is embarrassing.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Is there an alternate link that isn't the Calgary Sun (or any other Sun Media outlet) or Rick Bell that corroborates the >$500M figure? I have absolutely no faith whatsoever in the reliability of those sources.

Rick Bell's column is really about the lowest that even he has gone. He's reporting on the city's report going to council on the total cost of the Airport Trail corridor in the future. The report lists the costs involved in building the rest of Airport Trail, and the future interchanges (that are WAY in the future). I think Rick Bell just added every single number on the report together and is reporting it as the "Real cost of the tunnel".

Of course, Airport Trail has several sections that are complete, or were already under construction before the tunnel was approved. Airport Trail/96th Ave was going to be built between 36th Street and Stoney Trail in the future anyway, tunnel or no tunnel. Same with an interchange at Metis/Airport Trail. The other required interchanges on Airport Trail east of the tunnel would just be required elsewhere if there was no tunnel (i.e. Metis/64th Ave). The cost of buying land to build the roads was going to be the same tunnel or no tunnel as well.

I think Bell was even including the $42 million spent on the Harvest Hills Blvd to Deerfoot portion in his number. Of course, that was under construction before the tunnel was even approved - and well, it's on the other side of Deerfoot.

The report Bell is talking about doesn't mention any extra costs for the tunnel itself. It DOES MENTION that phases two and three (Interchanges west of the tunnel) will cost the city LESS than what was publically thought before - roughly $77 million instead of $120+ million. (Due to mistaking the total budget for those phases for the city only portion before).

What Bell is doing is the same as saying that the total cost of the GE5 interchange should include the cost for the future Glenmore/Ogden and Glenmore/52nd Street interchanges. Or, that the 7th Ave LRT station refurbishment cost should include the $120M cost of the NW extension to Tuscany.

[You Need a Thneed]

To simplify, let me paraphrase a Nenshi tweet from last night:

Originally Posted by Nenshi

The $500 million cost is the cost of the corridor over 40 years, but that includes the cost of building roads and interchanges that would have been required anyway, and it ignores the costs elsewhere that are avoided because the tunnel will be in place.

[Bunk]

Indeed - it's a little like saying that the 7th avenue LRT upgrades have ballooned by $120 million because of the NWLRT extension because they're both on the same LRT line.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by Bunk

Indeed - it's a little like saying that the 7th avenue LRT upgrades have ballooned by $120 million because of the NWLRT extension because they're both on the same LRT line.

Exactly, hence why YNAT made that exact analogy 2 posts ago

Does Rick Bell's garbage really appeal to anyone? Does it sell papers? I mean, the guy has been spewing spin for umpteen years and still he is a mainstay for the Sun, but I just can't seem to wrap my head around it.


Anyone know if the form is in place yet? Last I read it should be in by now, with pourings starting in the coming weeks.