2010 Blue Jays Season Thread

[moon]

Originally Posted by flambers

Out of the names above the following are not pitchers...Parra, Andrus, Heyward.

Out of that list only one of them would be producing and that is Heyward who is the #2 prospect in MLB.

Andrus is a defensive specialist Shortstop.

That doesn't surprise me at all. Not a lot of hitters are good enough at 22 and the ones that are are usually great players and none of these guys seem to be likely to turn out great.

i am not arguing that Snider is not a good prospect or that he should be producing at the MLB level I am just pointing out that he has done nothing to show that he deserves to me in the majors right now.

It may make sense for the organization to keep him up here but that is not based on anything that he has shown at the MLB level.

[Trojan97]

Originally Posted by moon

That doesn't surprise me at all. Not a lot of hitters are good enough at 22 and the ones that are are usually great players and none of these guys seem to be likely to turn out great.

i am not arguing that Snider is not a good prospect or that he should be producing at the MLB level I am just pointing out that he has done nothing to show that he deserves to me in the majors right now.

It may make sense for the organization to keep him up here but that is not based on anything that he has shown at the MLB level.

What else does he have to prove in AAA? You send him down and he crushes 35 homers and hits .300 without ever breaking a sweat, what good does that do for his development?

To say he has done nothing at the major league level is also a little bit off. In 314 career ABs going into this season he had 20 doubles, 1 triple, 11 HR, 42 RBIs with averages of .255/.331/.430 and an OPS of .761. His numbers actually qualify him as a totally average MLB batter with plus power. Considering those numbers were accumulated by a 20/21 year old just getting his feet wet I would say that's pretty darn good.

Undoubtedly, Snider has not performed up to par this season. He swung through a meatball by Papelbon last night that he usually would have crushed which was telling of his problems this year. What is promising though is he is still on pace to walk just shy of 100 times which is extremely impressive to see from a young guy who is struggling mightily with the bat right now.

He'll turn it around.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Trojan97

What else does he have to prove in AAA? You send him down and he crushes 35 homers and hits .300 without ever breaking a sweat, what good does that do for his development?

What he has to work on is hitting the harder pitches and not feasting on weak AAA pitching. He can also work on his defense which has looked suspect, and with Lind on the team DH is not a likely future spot.

Most importantly is that he can work on confidence which may help him in the majors.

But again I haven't said that I think that he should be in AAA this year, only that his hitting hasn't shown that he belongs in the majors.

To say he has done nothing at the major league level is also a little bit off. In 314 career ABs going into this season he had 20 doubles, 1 triple, 11 HR, 42 RBIs with averages of .255/.331/.430 and an OPS of .761. His numbers actually qualify him as a totally average MLB batter with plus power. Considering those numbers were accumulated by a 20/21 year old just getting his feet wet I would say that's pretty darn good.

Well those are decent numbers if you are cherry picking stats but if you take this season into consideration he is hitting .235 for his career, with a mediocre on base percentage and OPS. Those numbers are also trending down, which isn't a great sign.

Undoubtedly, Snider has not performed up to par this season. He swung through a meatball by Papelbon last night that he usually would have crushed which was telling of his problems this year. What is promising though is he is still on pace to walk just shy of 100 times which is extremely impressive to see from a young guy who is struggling mightily with the bat right now.

He usually would have crushed? No, that Papelon pitch is the problem right there. Pitchers can throw those balls by him because he is having trouble picking up major league pitching.

He'll turn it around.

I think that over his career he likely will pick it up but based on the fact that he doesn't seem to be learning or improving it likely won't improve that much in the near future or even this season.

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by moon

What he has to work on is hitting the harder pitches and not feasting on weak AAA pitching.

Originally Posted by moon

But again I haven't said that I think that he should be in AAA this year, only that his hitting hasn't shown that he belongs in the majors..

So, then, he should play in AAAA?

[moon]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

So, then, he should play in AAAA?

He would have plenty of company.

The list of guys who can hit very well in AAA but can do it in the majors in pretty long.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by moon

Well those are decent numbers if you are cherry picking stats but if you take this season into consideration he is hitting .235 for his career, with a mediocre on base percentage and OPS. Those numbers are also trending down, which isn't a great sign.

It's ridiculous to say a player is trending anywhere based on the 70 plate appearances he's had this season.

The kid has about less than 2/3 of a full season in AB's and he's already getting written off. Most popular baseball stats don't actually normalize themselves until a player gets 1.5-2 seasons of play.

The key with Snider is that he has a .143 BABIP (batting average of balls in play), good for third lowest in the league. Anyone who follows baseball stats knows that a hitter has very little control of this and that MLBers consistently trend towards .300 over the course of their career. It's the easiest way to determine if a player's numbers are the product of poor play or just poor luck.

The only two players below Snider in BABIP - struggling sluggers Texieria (.534 OPS) and Quentin (.630 OPS). In fact, of all the 10 players below .200 in BABIP Quentin's .630 OPS is second to Garrett Jones' .781 OPS.

[moon]

Originally Posted by JayP

It's ridiculous to say a player is trending anywhere based on the 70 plate appearances he's had this season.

Its based on last year and this year which is about 300 ABs.

The kid has about less than 2/3 of a full season in AB's and he's already getting written off. Most popular baseball stats don't actually normalize themselves until a player gets 1.5-2 seasons of play.

Who is writing him off?

[dustyanddaflames]

Originally Posted by moon

He would have plenty of company.

The list of guys who can hit very well in AAA but can do it in the majors in pretty long.

Brandon Wood with the Angels comes to mind

[JayP]

Originally Posted by moon

Its based on last year and this year which is about 300 ABs.

300 ABs is absolutely nothing for a ball player.

That's the whole reason the sophomore slump exists. A lucky rookie season and regression to their true skill level the next few seasons after.

[Trojan97]

Originally Posted by moon

What he has to work on is hitting the harder pitches and not feasting on weak AAA pitching. He can also work on his defense which has looked suspect, and with Lind on the team DH is not a likely future spot.

Most importantly is that he can work on confidence which may help him in the majors.

But again I haven't said that I think that he should be in AAA this year, only that his hitting hasn't shown that he belongs in the majors.



Well those are decent numbers if you are cherry picking stats but if you take this season into consideration he is hitting .235 for his career, with a mediocre on base percentage and OPS. Those numbers are also trending down, which isn't a great sign.



He usually would have crushed? No, that Papelon pitch is the problem right there. Pitchers can throw those balls by him because he is having trouble picking up major league pitching.



I think that over his career he likely will pick it up but based on the fact that he doesn't seem to be learning or improving it likely won't improve that much in the near future or even this season.

You said, "And how has he proven that he belongs in the majors by struggling to hit .200?"

I'm not cherry picking anything, simply proving to you that he has performed at a level that proves he belongs in the majors. If he doesn't belong, neither do half the hitters in the sport.

[jeremywilhelm]

I always heard you could only get a good assesment of a hitters true ability around the 500 AB area.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Trojan97

You said, "And how has he proven that he belongs in the majors by struggling to hit .200?"

I'm not cherry picking anything, simply proving to you that he has performed at a level that proves he belongs in the majors. If he doesn't belong, neither do half the hitters in the sport.

But he hasn't performed at the level you stated.

[moon]

Originally Posted by JayP

300 ABs is absolutely nothing for a ball player.

That's the whole reason the sophomore slump exists. A lucky rookie season and regression to their true skill level the next few seasons after.

Originally Posted by jeremywilhelm

I always heard you could only get a good assesment of a hitters true ability around the 500 AB area.

I don't think that his current play is an indication of how he will perform in the future I think it is a representation of whether or not he has shown that he belongs in the majors right now though.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by jeremywilhelm

I always heard you could only get a good assesment of a hitters true ability around the 500 AB area.

From http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...come-reliable:
50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO

Although those numbers are more geared towards a single season outlook (rather than projecting a players future seasons) it still gives you an idea of why you can't bench guys like Overbay (or even Snider) on one bad month

[Pagal4321]

Buck Martinez chimes in on this debate...

BUCK: Travis Snider is a young player that is trying to adjust to the Major Leagues. He has done about all he can do in the minors and now he has to figure out how to make adjustments against big league pitching. Many hitting coaches believe a young hitter needs 1500 at bats in the big league before you can really determine what you have. As we speak, Travis has just over 350 major league at-bats. Give him some time and I think he will make the adjustments and become a good hitter. What we have seen this year in Snider is a player that understands you can stay on the field and contribute even when things are going so well at the plate. Snider has worked hard on his defence, throwing and base running to ensure that if he is struggling to swing the bat he can stay in the lineup because of what he brings with the glove and his legs.

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by moon

He would have plenty of company.

The list of guys who can hit very well in AAA but can do it in the majors in pretty long.

Yes, that is obvious as to your point. There is no disputing that; I thought that was kind of a given however....

Is there anything to lose by playing Snider in the majors now? I'm not sure back to the minors helps him at this point; I think he needs to learn on the job a bit. It is not like the Jays are going anywhere....play him for a couple of years to see what you have. If he pans out great, if not...well that's baseball. And professional sports in general.

[Machiavelli]

The collapse of Downs and Frasor has been painfully swift.

[bluejays]

I personally thing Downs has the stuff to be an excellent pitcher. Perhaps his injury did take a toll on him. Frasor didn't have much to begin with, and the Jays have enough talent in the minors now that they can afford to just drop him. Overbay has some good value to hold onto as IIRC, if he walks in the off-season, the Jays get a supplemental 1st rounder, and if he breaks out they may get 2! I don't think anyone would be willing to offer any more than that, so my guess is he'd be a Jay until the off-season.

[Gozer]

I made a case for Downs for the Cy Young a couple years ago, and Frasor does have the tools, I think they'll both be fine as the season moves along. Maybe I'm making excuses but new catchers and new pitchers and a dearth of experience can't help the bullpen. I'm sure they'll both be fine as the season moves along.

Very glad to have Gregg around in the meantime though.

[Machiavelli]

John Buck with 3 homers today.