[News] The Edmonton Oilers win the draft lottery and will select 1st overall

[TheCommodoreAfro]

Against my better judgement, went to see what Oilfans had to say on their board. First quote:

We did it!

Like they had accomplished something by doing good and not having horseshoes rammed up their ass.

[Sample00]

I wonder what UFA the Oilers are going to target this year to see if they can speed up their rebuild process.
I wonder if they take a shot at Ramo or are there other goalies available that are better?
What dman could they entice to come play for them?
If they offer up Hall, what might they get in return?
And you have to think they are going to jettison a few players.

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by robaur

#1 defenceman?

I thought the Oilers had 4-5 Giordanos.

On a more serious note, RNH has been consistently outplayed by Monahan in his rookie and sophomore years. Gaudreau is a stud and I would rather have him on my team than Taylor Hall.

Yakupov is a disaster.

Sam Bennett is looking to be a stud and thus neutralizes Draisaitl at worst.

McDavid???? Well there's the x-factor but our defense and goaltending trumps the Oilers.

Joni Ortio, Jon Gillies, Mason MacDonald.....

One player isn't going to turn the Oilers around...

Bob Hartley over any coach that Oilers can possibly sign other than Mike Babcock.

Yeah, I think the Flames are trending towards being the next Blackhawks.

If Edmonton ends up being the next Penguins, so be it: that's a rivalry I'd be happy to watch for the next decade, and I wouldn't bet on the Flames coming out worse in it.

Hope Calgary knocks it out of the park this summer and the final pieces of a championship team are added to the stable.

[renny]

Do the right thing Connor, pretend you can't do a pullup

[Day Tripper]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

Yeah, I think the Flames are trending towards being the next Blackhawks.

I'd say the next Blue Jackets realistically, potentially a bit better, and the Oilers the next Washington Capitals.

[Hells Bells]

Originally Posted by Day Tripper

I'd say the next Blue Jackets realistically, and the Oilers the next Washington Capitals.

LOL.

If the Flames were trending towards being the Blue Jackets, they'd be out golfing right now instead of playing hockey.

That's a terrible comparison. I fail to see one thing in common.

[Day Tripper]

Originally Posted by Hells Bells

LOL.

If the Flames were trending towards being the Blue Jackets, they'd be out golfing right now instead of playing hockey.

That's a terrible comparison. I fail to see one thing in common.

Columbus was in the playoffs last year and almost made it the year before. They had a down year this year, but the same could happen to the Flames. They're a hard working, likable team. I was talking more in terms of level of play, not style. The Flames do play a similar style to the Hawks, but don't have that kind of talent, and probably won't as that level of talent is very difficult to get.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by FAN

It was pretty high.

You were probably just trolling, but for the sake of the numbers, here are the odds of the Oilers drafting 1st 4 times:

2010, 30th overall: 56.3%
2011, 30th overall: 56.3%
2012, 29th overall: 18.8%
2015, 28th overall: 11.5%

Odds of all 4: 56.3% x 56.3% x 18.8% x 11.5% = 0.67%

less than 1%

or to put it another way, 1 in 146

I wouldn't call that 'pretty high', personally

[Hells Bells]

Originally Posted by Day Tripper

Columbus was in the playoffs last year and almost made it the year before. They had a down year this year, but the same could happen to the Flames. They're a hard working, likable team. I was talking more in terms of level of play, not style. The Flames do play a similar style to the Hawks, but don't have that kind of talent, and probably won't as that level of talent is very difficult to get.

I see the Flames trending towards being a contender, not a team that will miss one year and maybe make it the next.

That's where the Flames are now.

The Blue Jackets have guys like Atkinson, Foligno & Hartnell in their top 6. Good players but not very talented. Certainly the Flames will have more talent. Much closer to the Hawks IMO.

[Day Tripper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You were probably just trolling, but for the sake of the numbers, here are the odds of the Oilers drafting 1st 4 times:

2010, 30th overall: 56.3%
2011, 30th overall: 56.3%
2012, 29th overall: 18.8%
2015, 28th overall: 11.5%

Odds of all 4: 56.3% x 56.3% x 18.8% x 11.5% = 0.7%

less than 1%

or to put it another way, 1 in 146

I wouldn't call that 'pretty high', personally

1) Shouldn't 2010 and 2011 be 48.2%?
2) What you found is the Oilers' odds of drafting 1st in 2010, 1st in 2011, 1st in 2012, not 1st in 2013, not 1st in 2014, and 1st in 2015. To find the odds that they win it at least 4 times in the last 6 years, you have to add the probabilities of each combination of four 1st overalls, all the combinations of five 1st overalls, and the probability of six straight 1st overalls. It should be 2.00%, I think.

[Geeoff]

Kind of sounds like McDavid is being brought in to be coach and GM too...

[Robo]

seriously this isn't a bad thing the oilers could have drafted a franchise d man with this pick they are staying their coarse of all offense no defense they wont get any better

[Vinny01]

I agree and hope the Flames are the next Hawks. Our top 2 kids definitely share similarities with Towes and Kane. We have an elite first pair on D which they have (except Gio is older). Hudler appears to be playing that Hossa/Havlat role (not as good as Hossa). Bennett maybe will be our Sharp (hopefully better).

I also get excited with the cap space and multiple teams facing cap problems the Flames could be poised to improve the team this summer.


The Oilers I do fear have that player now that will pull them out of the mess. Hall, Eberle, Nuge, Yak are all good players but not great (some potential to be great exists). Drasaitl, and Nurse are top blue chip prospects. McDavid is a game changing superstar. He will lead this team out of the crap more than they will suck him in as he is just too good. With this player the Oilers also become a much more desirable place for coaches. If they can land Babcock this summer and he changes the culture they will be knocking on the playoff door sooner than later. Obviously they need a goalie and a couple better D but they also pisses several picks and have a bit of cap room to add to their group.

The battle of Alberta is going to heat up again very very soon

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Visually this is good for Edmonton...

But doesn't matter if you have a team of lions...if you are led by donkeys

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Day Tripper

1) Shouldn't 2010 and 2011 be 48.2%?
2) What you found is the Oilers' odds of drafting 1st in 2010, 1st in 2011, 1st in 2012, not 1st in 2013, not 1st in 2014, and 1st in 2015. To find the odds that they win it at least 4 times in the last 6 years, you have to add the probabilities of each combination of four 1st overalls, all the combinations of five 1st overalls, and the probability of six straight 1st overalls. It should be 2.00%, I think.

48.2%, right.

I was calculating the odds of actually winning all 4 times that they won, which - using 48.2% - was actually 0.5%, not 0.67% as I posted above.

But I didn't factor in that they also had 2 other cracks at it in 2013 and 2014. Factoring that in, and working off the decision tree of: they already won 3 times, which had a 4.4% chance of happening, what is the chances of them getting a 4th #1?

4.4% x (4.7% + 14.2% + 11.5%) = 1.33%

Your 2% is calculating the chances of them winning any 4 (or more) times. Which is the right way to look at it.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Do you not immediately test the market for Draisaitl if you're MacTavish?

[flames_fan_down_under]

Well now that this has sunk in I am still of mixed emotions. First of all anything that makes the Oilers fans happy is a bad thing, but from their end anything that makes Flames fans upset is the ultimate victory for them so i refuse to give them the satisfaction of thinking they have "won" anything.

It will be cool to have that kid playing in the West.

The Oilers truly didn't tank, and as we all know, stunningly, were actually a team trying to get better.

The Oilers desperately need defense, goaltending, size. None of which Connor provides. Think Ilya Kovalchuk playing with the Thrashers.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Do you not immediately test the market for Draisaitl if you're MacTavish?

I think they should test the market for a D with either him or Nuge being dangled. Try for a Seth Jones type and see what it will take. With Weber and Josi locked up long term a Nuge for Jons trade could be good for both. I just don't think Leon has enough value to bring back anything more than a comparable prospect.

Also if they are looking at trading Nuge (which they aren't) a package deal from Vancouver of Lack, Tanev, + would be a decent deal for both. Not sure Van would give up Tanev but would love to add a 22 year old from Van to their old ass lineup

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I doubt they trade RNH; he's a good hockey player and if he ends up as a 2nd line C, while he'll never be Malkin he could play a similar role for them. Meanwhile, Draisaitl is wasted on the third line, and I agree, they should be looking at a good under 25 y/o defenseman.

I doubt Vancouver would trade their current starting goalie and their #2 defenseman for him though; realistically I doubt either team wants to trade these types of players within their division.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Do you not immediately test the market for Draisaitl if you're MacTavish?

If it were me, I would let 2015 play out to see how McDavid, RNH and Draisaitl look as potential complements, then look to trade one of the latter two.

That also gives Draisaitl another year to develop (I know, we're talking Oilers here).

But yes, I would trade one of them because you can't really fully utilize, or afford, all 3, so trade one for a quality defenseman.

But again... Oilers.