Calgary offers picks 6, 22, 28 for the first overall: no dice

[Badger Bob]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

The Oilers don't have franchise player the calibre of what MacKinnon or Jones project to be. End of story.

You mean like Taylor Hall's 2 Memorial Cup MVP's?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Badger Bob

You mean like Taylor Hall's 2 Memorial Cup MVP's?

What's your point? That Hall was a better prospect when he was drafted than MacKinnon is now? If so, I imagine most of the hockey world would disagree with you, but everyone is entitled to their opinion.

[oldschoolcalgary]

I see McKinnon to skew more towards Tavares than Crosby...and it's only this year that Tavares has been anything remotely like a franchise player.

In spite of all the opinions being bandied about, the facts do not indicate that #1 pick overall = Stanley Cups. People can parse that data anyway they want to; thirty years or a ten year sample. Does not change the facts that only 20% of #1 picks have won a Cup with the teams that drafted them.

That's not spin, nor speculation.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by timbit

That's right. I forgot...this team is only a #1 C away from contending for 8th place. That has been the mantra over the last few years. Right?

Well are we going to get any closer to contending by drafting three 2nd liners vs one franchise player?

No one said we're a #1 centre away from anything. The poster you quoted said we need elite talent and they are right. We need elite talent and it is hard to acquire. Depth talent is not nearly as hard to acquire.

I see what people are saying about the depth. But at the same time what we really need is 1st liners. And if you aren't getting 1st line type talent at all 3 picks then trading them all for one elite player seems to get us closer to contending than not.

If we could add 1 elite player this year, 1 next, 1 the year after we'd be much better set up than adding 3 second liners this year, two the next and two the year after that. Filling second line, second pairing holes only gets you so far. You need to find the 1st liners and 1st pairing defensemen somehow.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by timbit

When you have 2 "B" impact players ( Sven and Brodie) in your lineup under 28 years old with ZERO "A" impact players over 28... You take as many swings as possible in the draft.

Except that you may not get an "A" player outside the top 5 and thus our best chance to acquire one may be to deal up. No point swinging three times and getting "B"s and "C"s if you could deal up and get a player your scouts think will be an "A".

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by timbit

Paille 20 th pick....Bergeron 45 th pick, Lucic 50th pick, Krejci 63rd pick, Marchand 71st pick.

Would they make the Flames a Cup contender?

Probably not. Rask and Chara are perhaps the two most important players on the Bruins. We still wouldn't have a proven #1 goalie nor a proven #1 defenseman.

Flames need star power at a few positions.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well are we going to get any closer to contending by drafting three 2nd liners vs one franchise player?

You take advantage of opportunities you have to improve your team in the best way possible. The Flames have a pretty thin farm system. Three first round picks, even if they turn out to only be second line talent, would go a long way to solving the depth issue. Plus, there is no guarantee that the players selected will top out at 2nd liners like you suggest. Lots of top end talent comes from slots throughout the first round. There are even players that end up on the top lines of championship teams that were drafted after the first round. A top five pick does not guarantee stardom and a pick after the top five does not damn a player to mediocrity.

I see what people are saying about the depth. But at the same time what we really need is 1st liners. And if you aren't getting 1st line type talent at all 3 picks then trading them all for one elite player seems to get us closer to contending than not.

Oilers have three straight first round picks. Using your logic they are to be a perennial powerhouse and have banners hanging from the rafters for the next decade. Too bad that there is no guarantee that once a player is drafted he is going to turn out.

If we could add 1 elite player this year, 1 next, 1 the year after we'd be much better set up than adding 3 second liners this year, two the next and two the year after that. Filling second line, second pairing holes only gets you so far. You need to find the 1st liners and 1st pairing defensemen somehow.

Or the Flames could do the smart thing and recognize the trajectory the team is on and think long term. The Flames could pick three guys this year, that are only second liners, then draft a top end talent in 2014 and a top end talent in 2015. The team is better off with five guys that can play in the top six than three.

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Except that you may not get an "A" player outside the top 5 and thus our best chance to acquire one may be to deal up. No point swinging three times and getting "B"s and "C"s if you could deal up and get a player your scouts think will be an "A".

Except you may not get an "A" player with a pick in the top five either. The 1993 draft is considered one of the best and the talent came from all spots in that draft. In fact, the top five included one massive bust (Daigle) and one huge under-performer (Niedermayer). Some of the best players actually came mid-first round and some really great ones came outside the first round. There are no guarantees from drafting in the top five. You increase the odds of hitting on a top end talent, but the potential to hit on that top end talent exists throughout the first two rounds. That is where you have to trust your scouting and hope you read the direction the game is going correctly.

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Probably not. Rask and Chara are perhaps the two most important players on the Bruins. We still wouldn't have a proven #1 goalie nor a proven #1 defenseman.

Flames need star power at a few positions.

Chara was drafted #56. Rask was drafted #21. Neither were drafted top five. If you look at how each of the teams in the finals were built you'll see that those early picks were not as important to the success of the team as much as developing a foundation of players that would provide depth. Each team has incredible depth because they drafted multiple NHL players in a few drafts. The Flames need to continue that trend and use this draft to build up depth. They will be bad enough in the next two or three seasons to have a legitimate shot at drafting that top end talent without wasting assets to draft this year's flavor of the month and leader on the hype parade.

[Badger Bob]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

What's your point? That Hall was a better prospect when he was drafted than MacKinnon is now? If so, I imagine most of the hockey world would disagree with you, but everyone is entitled to their opinion.

The better question is - What's your point? The Oilers went with the best players available in their draft spots. No observers would've had any problems with them drafting Hall, RNH & Yakupov. Compare that nucleus with Backlund, "Friggin" Baerschi and "Friggin" Jankowski, and the Oilers rebuild program is so far ahead of the Flames.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Badger Bob

The better question is - What's your point? The Oilers went with the best players available in their draft spots. No observers would've had any problems with them drafting Hall, RNH & Yakupov. Compare that nucleus with Backlund, "Friggin" Baerschi and "Friggin" Jankowski, and the Oilers rebuild program is so far ahead of the Flames.

Huh? No one ever said that the Oilers didn't make the right picks and draft as well as they could with what was there. It's just a simple fact that the top 3 or 4 picks in this draft are considered stronger than most of the top 1 or 2 picks in many of the recent drafts.

All I said was that the Oilers don't have franchise player the caliber of what MacKinnon is projected to be, and you came up with some argument about Hall. What are you suggesting with that statement?

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

If we could add 1 elite player this year, 1 next, 1 the year after we'd be much better set up than adding 3 second liners this year, two the next and two the year after that. Filling second line, second pairing holes only gets you so far. You need to find the 1st liners and 1st pairing defensemen somehow.

Would you say STL, SJ, BOS or LA have elite first line forwards?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Huh? No one ever said that the Oilers didn't make the right picks and draft as well as they could with what was there. It's just a simple fact that the top 3 or 4 picks in this draft are considered stronger than most of the top 1 or 2 picks in many of the recent drafts.

All I said was that the Oilers don't have franchise player the caliber of what MacKinnon is projected to be, and you came up with some argument about Hall. What are you suggesting with that statement?

How about both of you acknowledging you have no idea. Not a person on the planet right now can say MacKinnon will be better than Hall or RNH and vice versa. Time will tell.

[Rubicant]

If I knew for a fact that all 3 of our first rounders were going to be players for us and make an impact in the future I would probably hang onto them.

In reality I expect one to make an impact, would be happy if 2 did, and surprised if all 3 do.

If Florida is willing to accept this deal (I'd even take back a toxic contract like Campbell and send them any prospect not named Baertschi, Brodie or Gaudreau) with MacKinnon still on the board I'd take the first line with potential of franchise centreman.

It likely won't happen though, and I am not willing to move up for anyone else in the top 5.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

How about both of you acknowledging you have no idea. Not a person on the planet right now can say MacKinnon will be better than Hall or RNH and vice versa. Time will tell.

We do have an idea though. There has been a lot of information put out there over the past couple of years about the rare talents available in this draft as opposed to more recent drafts. Whether or not that proves to be true in the long run still remains to be seen, but it's not really fair to say we have no idea nor is it a statement inconsistent with many published accounts from pro scouts.. Many scouts and people within the hockey world have given us an idea of what MacKinnon and Jones project to be.

People can put their head in the sand and ignore it, but the information is there.

[Stanley]

As fun as it is to talk about it, the top 3-4 will not trade down, period. I'd be very surprised if they did. They know their picks are exceptional talents with franchise player potential. No one's gonna want a collection of picks that may or may not pan out when they can have a sure thing with their top pick.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

You take advantage of opportunities you have to improve your team in the best way possible. The Flames have a pretty thin farm system. Three first round picks, even if they turn out to only be second line talent, would go a long way to solving the depth issue. Plus, there is no guarantee that the players selected will top out at 2nd liners like you suggest. Lots of top end talent comes from slots throughout the first round. There are even players that end up on the top lines of championship teams that were drafted after the first round. A top five pick does not guarantee stardom and a pick after the top five does not damn a player to mediocrity.

There is also no guarantee that the later first rounders even stick as NHLers. By the late 1st round you find lots of fringe NHLers and guys who only get a cup of coffee. However, with scouting today, there are rarely busts in the top 3 overall anymore.

There's a greater chance MacKinnon becomes a first-line centre than the 22 and 28th picks both become 2nd liners. Probably one of those two ends up a marginal NHLer.

It's all about probability. As you go down in the draft, the top end is reduced and the probability of players reaching that top end is reduced.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

We do have an idea though. There has been a lot of information put out there over the past couple of years about the rare talents available in this draft as opposed to more recent drafts. Whether or not that proves to be true in the long run still remains to be seen, but it's not really fair to say we have no idea nor is it a statement inconsistent with many published accounts from pro scouts.. Many scouts and people within the hockey world have given us an idea of what MacKinnon and Jones project to be.

People can put their head in the sand and ignore it, but the information is there.

yeah, but there is still a range that they will fall within that the scouts cannot project. McKinnon would be the next Crosby or the next RNH. Its one thing to project, which is fine, as that's what drafting is about, but its another thing to speak in absolutes.

McKinnon is going to be a very good player. Whether he is going to be elite or even generational is anyone's guess.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

There is also no guarantee that the later first rounders even stick as NHLers. By the late 1st round you find lots of fringe NHLers and guys who only get a cup of coffee. However, with scouting today, there are rarely busts in the top 3 overall anymore.

There's a greater chance MacKinnon becomes a first-line centre than the 22 and 28th picks both become 2nd liners. Probably one of those two ends up a marginal NHLer.

It's all about probability. As you go down in the draft, the top end is reduced and the probability of players reaching that top end is reduced.

And that's why you accumulate picks, not trade them away.

Again, I don't blame Feaster for seeking the #1 pick, however, I just don't see the organization in the same way, with the same urgency for that #1 pick... jmho

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

yeah, but there is still a range that they will fall within that the scouts cannot project. McKinnon would be the next Crosby or the next RNH. Its one thing to project, which is fine, as that's what drafting is about, but its another thing to speak in absolutes.

McKinnon is going to be a very good player. Whether he is going to be elite or even generational is anyone's guess.

Which is why I have been saying "projects to be" over and over.

[Stealth22]

Originally Posted by Stanley

As fun as it is to talk about it, the top 3-4 will not trade down, period. I'd be very surprised if they did. They know their picks are exceptional talents with franchise player potential. No one's gonna want a collection of picks that may or may not pan out when they can have a sure thing with their top pick.

I would do something surrounding Giordano and the #6 pick for first/second overall if it meant we get Nathan MacKinnon. By the time the Flames can contend again, Gio's value will just keep declining with time. They waited too long with Iginla, I don't think they can afford to do the same with Gio.

You have to think that the Flames will be calling Florida, Tampa, Nashville, and Carolina as the picks are being made. And if I were Feaster, I would probably keep the dialogue open with Dale Tallon, but not pull the trigger until Colorado announces that they've selected Jones.

But lets say that Florida says no, but Tampa says yes, or maybe Florida says yes, but Colorado selects MacKinnon. Would you guys still do that trade if it meant getting Jones or Drouin?

EDIT: There was also the other thread about trading for Carolina's pick, if the top 4 will not move down. Gio + the 22nd pick + a prospect of sorts for the chance to get two of Lindholm/Monahan/Nichuskin/Nurse/Barkov? Obviously a MacKinnon/Jones/Drouin would be my first choice, but I'd do that deal with Carolina in a heartbeat.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

And that's why you accumulate picks, not trade them away.

Sure. But people who are assuming the players drafted at 6, 22, and 28 will all reach their projected potential, and then comparing that to McKinnon, are being unrealistic. One of those late first rounders will probably be a marginal NHLer or a bust.