U.S. Debt discussion

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

WTF are you talking about? Another quality post. The EPA is the reason the U.S. has a bad business climate? Are you kidding me?

Yes another quality post.

The EPA is a major reason the Keystone Pipeline is still under 'review.' They are continuing to obstruct drilling on offshore reserves, in Alaska and have created so many regulations in their effort to 'protect' the environment that a lot of companies are abandoning any fossil fuel exploration in the US, instead opting for countries like Canada and Russia.

One example.

Shell Oil Company has announced it must scrap efforts to drill for oil this summer in the Arctic Ocean off the northern coast of Alaska. The decision comes following a ruling by the EPA’s Environmental Appeals Board to withhold critical air permits. The move has angered some in Congress and triggered a flurry of legislation aimed at stripping the EPA of its oil drilling oversight.
Shell has spent five years and nearly $4 billion dollars on plans to explore for oil in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. The leases alone cost $2.2 billion. Shell Vice President Pete Slaiby says obtaining similar air permits for a drilling operation in the Gulf of Mexico would take about 45 days. He’s especially frustrated over the appeal board’s suggestion that the Arctic drill would somehow be hazardous for the people who live in the area.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/04/25...illing-denial/

Best part of the article.

The closest village to where Shell proposed to drill is Kaktovik, Alaska. It is one of the most remote places in the United States. According to the latest census, the population is 245 and nearly all of the residents are Alaska natives. The village, which is 1 square mile, sits right along the shores of the Beaufort Sea, 70 miles away from the proposed off-shore drill site.

70 miles away from the drill site, and the EPA is forcing them to shutdown because of 'air permits?' Seriously.

There are numerous examples like this. Stupid and dumb regulations put in place by a trigger happy organization that has absolutely no common sense.

Oil and natural gas are driving the Canadian economy. Especially in Alberta, Sask, and Manitoba. There is no reason the US couldn't benefit from the same thing. They have huge reserves that nobody can get too because of the EPA.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by 4X4

No, the REAL problem is that most people pick a party like they pick a sports team, and rarely/never waver. No matter how screwy a party gets, a hardcore democrat voter will still vote democrat, just as a hardcore republican will still vote "repug". Oh, and clever name there, Rick Bell.

I totally agree with you here. I fall into this myself, so I'm not implying anything when I say that this happens all the time in Canada as well. I also find that I make a decision on an issue and then am loathe to change my mind until the evidence is just overwhelming in my eyes. An example that jumps to mind is the C-Train parking fees where by the time I came to the conclusion that free parking was not the best way, it was a done deal.

Anyway, the point is that the "other side" has good ideas from time to time, and it wouldn't kill us to acknowledge that.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

At least Calgaryborn demonstrates consistent epistemic closure to his belives. No amount of evidence will challenge his world view from economics to religion.

Is it wrong to say that people like him are extremely dangerous?

That might be the dumbest thing said in this thread. Another quality post too, BTW.

People who think other people are 'dangerous' because they post their opinion on a free message board based out of Calgary, Alberta.....probably need to give their heads a shake.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Slava

I totally agree with you here. I fall into this myself, so I'm not implying anything when I say that this happens all the time in Canada as well. I also find that I make a decision on an issue and then am loathe to change my mind until the evidence is just overwhelming in my eyes. An example that jumps to mind is the C-Train parking fees where by the time I came to the conclusion that free parking was not the best way, it was a done deal.

Anyway, the point is that the "other side" has good ideas from time to time, and it wouldn't kill us to acknowledge that.

I always knew you were a diehard Liberal voter no matter who was running in the election.

[Tinordi]

You said a huge reason for the bad business climate in the U.S. was the EPA, implying that it is a main reason for the economic issues down there.

You then support this by saying that the EPA watching out for natural environments and lengthening approvals for oil exploitation and capacity improvements for oil shipments with the logical connection that if there was more drilling and better capacity for Canadian oil that the business climate in the U.S. and therefore the economy would be much better.

This is beyond stupid.

[CaramonLS]

25 things we learned during the debt crisis

This goes out to CB.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Azure

I always knew you were a diehard Liberal voter no matter who was running in the election.

Actually I've voted for other parties more often than the Liberals. If I was in the US though I'm basically positive that I would only vote democrat...

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

You said a huge reason for the bad business climate in the U.S. was the EPA, implying that it is a main reason for the economic issues down there.

You then support this by saying that the EPA watching out for natural environments and lengthening approvals for oil exploitation and capacity improvements for oil shipments with the logical connection that if there was more drilling and better capacity for Canadian oil that the business climate in the U.S. and therefore the economy would be much better.

This is beyond stupid.

The economic issues go way beyond the business climate. I said the EPA is a huge reason behind the bad business climate is because one of the strongest drivers of the economy....energy production, is being held back by the stupid regulations and oversight of the EPA.

And huge reason doesn't mean main reasons. There are quite a few 'huge' reasons they economy is bad in the US.

[Slava]

S&P made a $2 Trillion dollar error in their calculations on deciding to downgrade the US. Apparently they went ahead with the downgrade anyway just a few minutes ago...

[Azure]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

25 things we learned during the debt crisis

A lot of good points. Nice to see the obvious bias though. Makes it seem like every single issue the past 25 years was the Republicans fault.

What about a list of 25 things that we learned during the financial crisis, and we'll start with Carter and end with Clinton, and we'll mostly mention financial regulations. Or the lack of them. Or how they existed, but were repealed.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Slava

Actually I've voted for other parties more often than the Liberals. If I was in the US though I'm basically positive that I would only vote democrat...

With the blue dogs slowly leaving the Democrat Party, I would almost certainly not vote for that merry band of morons.

If you have a choice between ######s and incompetent fools, who do you pick?

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Slava

S&P made a $2 Trillion dollar error in their calculations on deciding to downgrade the US. Apparently they went ahead with the downgrade anyway just a few minutes ago...

Is it just me or isn't it strange that such an important calculation is left in the hands of agencies that more than had their hands on the machine that contributed to the crash in '08?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Azure

With the blue dogs slowly leaving the Democrat Party, I would almost certainly not vote for that merry band of morons.

If you have a choice between ######s and incompetent fools, who do you pick?

With only those two choices I'd still vote...so I guess the Conservatives/Republicans!

Seriously though I think that there are decent people and decent ideas on both sides. I'm not quite as disillusioned as you I guess and I don't think that big business runs everything or calls all the shots. They definitely have a lot of pull, but they can also do an enormous amount of good.

[Tinordi]

Are you kidding me?

Oil and gas production employs 160,000 people in the U.S. Out of an employed workforce of 137 million. If you're arguing that the U.S. should be producing more oil and gas as a way to stimulate the economy through employment then you're dead frickin wrong.

If you're getting your head muddied up with the relationship of energy prices to the economy then even expanded arctic drilling faster than would otherwise be allowed by the EPA will have no effect on energy prices, neither will keystone.

Your point about the EPA being a problem for the U.S. economy will need to be backed up considerably better. I can provide a host a reasons as to why the EPA is actually really good for the economy btw.

I react with such obstinance because I just hate cliched arguments like this. Oh regulating against environmental damage is so bad for our economy. It's just pure baloney.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Azure

Is it just me or isn't it strange that such an important calculation is left in the hands of agencies that more than had their hands on the machine that contributed to the crash in '08?

I tweeted something to that effect as well. The ratings agencies were pathetic leading up to 2008 and now they make a $2 Trillion dollar error (and agree they made the mistake!) and still issue the downgrade. Yesterday Moodys reaffirmed the AAA, FWIW.

Honestly, for people that care and rely on these things there is a lesson here: do the work yourself and don't farm it out.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Slava

With only those two choices I'd still vote...so I guess the Conservatives/Republicans!

Seriously though I think that there are decent people and decent ideas on both sides. I'm not quite as disillusioned as you I guess and I don't think that big business runs everything or calls all the shots. They definitely have a lot of pull, but they can also do an enormous amount of good.

Don't get me wrong. I agree that big business can and DOES do a lot of good.

But if you allow them to lobby your government like crazy, and you hire a bunch of lobbyists to serve in your administration, along with constantly rotating Wall Street execs in and out of a variety of cabinet roles, at some point it'll become a problem.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Are you kidding me?

Oil and gas production employs 160,000 people in the U.S. Out of an employed workforce of 137 million. If you're arguing that the U.S. should be producing more oil and gas as a way to stimulate the economy through employment then you're dead frickin wrong.

If you're getting your head muddied up with the relationship of energy prices to the economy then even expanded arctic drilling faster than would otherwise be allowed by the EPA will have no effect on energy prices, neither will keystone.

Your point about the EPA being a problem for the U.S. economy will need to be backed up considerably better. I can provide a host a reasons as to why the EPA is actually really good for the economy btw.

I react with such obstinance because I just hate cliched arguments like this. Oh regulating against environmental damage is so bad for our economy. It's just pure baloney.

Who said anything about energy prices? I just say that the EPA has on numerous occasions been a major reason that major projects have been shutdown or in the case of the Keystone Pipeline, been delayed because of supposed environmental reasons.

Those are real jobs to people who NEED the money that they're holding back.

If you're constantly doing that, most people would see that as creating an unfavorable business environment.

Then again, you're the one who thinks people who disagree with you are 'dangerous'....so I doubt the common sense approach that the EPA SHOULD be taking is lost on you.

There is a reason the Department of the Interior is regulating drilling expansion in the Gulf of Mexico. Too much federal oversight and red tape creates a problem. And that is exactly what the EPA is doing.

The US seems to love creating agencies though. CIA, NSA, DIA, FBI, DEA....and then they created the Department of Homeland Security because apparently those 5 weren't enough.

[Yasa]

Originally Posted by Slava

S&P made a $2 Trillion dollar error in their calculations on deciding to downgrade the US. Apparently they went ahead with the downgrade anyway just a few minutes ago...

Goldman Sachs is also predicting a GDP growth of 2-2½% rather than 3, and a 33% of recession again. Which brings me back to my earlier post about QE3. How much can the US possibly afford without cornering themselves even more?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Yasa

Goldman Sachs is also predicting a GDP growth of 2-2½% rather than 3, and a 33% of recession again. Which brings me back to my earlier post about QE3. How much can the US possibly afford without cornering themselves even more?

Well a GDP of 2-21/2 and a recession are two different things. While its not the cool position, the reality is the US has a debt of about 74% of their GDP....not great, but still manageable for an economy of their size. It has to be noted that as they contracted in 2008/09 that the ratio must have increased as well? The US economy will recover, and no one seems to make much of an argument against that fact....so they could afford to borrow more and embark on QE3 if they had no choice.

As for the effect it had the first two times, it was actually quite pronounced. Its a strange coincidence that QE2 ends and a few weeks later we find ourselves in this position. The needle was moving the right way through the first two rounds of QE, and these things just take time....so who knkws how mucb ground could be gained through a third round. Of course part.of the trick though is finding a time go cut the easing off, so its hard to say.

[Yasa]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well a GDP of 2-21/2 and a recession are two different things.

I know this, I'm only repeating what Jan Hatzuis said.

While its not the cool position, the reality is the US has a debt of about 74% of their GDP....not great, but still manageable for an economy of their size. It has to be noted that as they contracted in 2008/09 that the ratio must have increased as well? The US economy will recover, and no one seems to make much of an argument against that fact....so they could afford to borrow more and embark on QE3 if they had no choice.

As for the effect it had the first two times, it was actually quite pronounced. Its a strange coincidence that QE2 ends and a few weeks later we find ourselves in this position. The needle was moving the right way through the first two rounds of QE, and these things just take time....so who knkws how mucb ground could be gained through a third round. Of course part.of the trick though is finding a time go cut the easing off, so its hard to say.

It seems worrisome to me only because they obviously can't lower interest rates any further and if (when?) they decide to do another QE, doesn't this pose the risk of causing a crazy amount if inflation? On top of that, after being downgraded to AA+ one can only assume less foreign investments which seems to me like it's putting the US into a vicious loop.

This is only based on what little I know, but I'm doing my best to try and learn how this works.