As much as I have become a little obsessed in the last couple weeks, its nice to see comments slowing down on this thread, slowly easing me out of my addiction to outrage!
I welcome a return to boredom.
This is, unfortunately, wishful thinking.
Outrage is the raw fuel that powers clicks, eyeballs, subscriptions, viewers and advertising dollars. People paying attention to boring "news" is not going to create sufficient fuel - so expect to get a constant stream of storylines about something intended to create outrage.
If you have found yourself being outraged over the past while, it is probably because there has been a lot of effort put into making you feel that way.
Once you step aside and see most of the bombardment is actually just competing camps selling different flavors of outrage, you can be fascinated by the process rather than a product of it.
OuTrAgE iS tHe RaW fUeL tHaT pOwErS cLiCkS, eYeBaLlS, sUbScRiPtIoNs, ViEwErS aNd AdVeRtIsInG dOlLaRs. PeOpLe PaYiNg AtTeNtIoN tO bOrInG "nEwS" iS nOt GoInG tO cReAtE sUfFiCiEnT fUeL - sO eXpEcT tO gEt A cOnStAnT sTrEaM oF sToRyLiNeS aBoUt sOmEtHiNg iNtEnDeD tO cReAtE oUtRaGe.
If YoU hAvE fOuNd YoUrSeLf BeInG oUtRaGeD oVeR tHe PaSt WhIlE, iT iS pRoBaBlY bEcAuSe ThErE hAs BeEn A lOt Of EfFoRt PuT iNtO mAkInG yOu FeEl ThAt WaY.
oNcE yOu StEp AsIdE aNd SeE mOsT oF tHe BoMbArDmEnT iS aCtUaLlY jUsT cOmPeTiNg CaMpS sElLiNg DiFfErEnT fLaVoRs Of OuTrAgE, yOu CaN bE fAsCiNaTeD bY tHe PrOcEsS rAtHeR tHaN a PrOdUcT oF iT.
Aw, that's so cute, what's your costume supposed to be little guy? Oh, you're a circus clown? Well, here's some candy for the little clown then.
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GO FLAMES GO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Azure
Typical dumb take.
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Arizona will be very close, and there is another big Maricopa dump coming today.
Apparently of the remaining ballots outstanding a good number are rejected that can still be cured, but as I understand it most wont be.
That leaves, apparently, fewer than 100,000 votes still out with Trump needing to make up 18,000–so essentially he still needs 60% of whatever is still out there in order to win.
Right now he is averaging 58.5% of the votes still coming in. It will be down to the wire. If Biden gets one more relatively favourable dump from Maricopa that would likely be the ball game but Trump has been winning close to that margin in every incoming batch of ballots so far.
Notably, recount rules in Arizona are pretty strict—lesser of .1% or 200 votes I think.
I've been using the NYT github site for a few days to track because it's all in one place. I think the key number is votes remaining, because my site says 120k and you're saying fewer than 100k. If my source is right, he only needs 57% of remaining votes and has been getting between 58-60 the past few batches. If you're right about the number of votes left, he's on track to fall a bit short, if mine is, he just barely gets over the line.
Outstanding vote count has been the hardest thing to get certainty on throughout this whole process. By all accounts Georgia should have run out of votes long ago.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
Been watching a bunch of old Obama speeches over the last few days. At McCain's funeral, at Canadian Parliament, at GW Bush's library. Just such a stellar person. Had his issues and warts, but no doubt he cared greatly about others and moving humanity forward. Just going to pretend we went straight from him to Biden for my own personal mental health.
I could be viewing this wrong, but it looks to me like the Americans prefer to elect the true opposite of their previous president.
Clinton was the anti-Bush. He was charming and cool, but he’s also a philandering creep (at best)
W was the anti-Clinton. He wasn’t charming, he wasn’t cool, and he seemed like kind of an idiot (although W read 2 books a week during his second term). He couldn’t make money drilling for oil in Texas, he wasn’t great at running a baseball team, and he enjoyed the cocaine once upon a time. Started two wars (one reasonably justifiable) and let the banks run wild and tank the economy. Basically did such a poor job that the American electorate said “#### it, let the black guy try.”
Obama, thoughtful, eloquent, decent, a top-10 orator in the history of western civilization, is
the ultimate expression of America at its best.
Trump is the ultimate expression of America at its worst.
Where Trump is chaotic and immature, Biden is stable as a rock.
Say what you will about either of the last two presidents, you cannot deny that each man is the perfect foil to bring out the worst in the other party.
Joe Biden isn’t that. Joe Biden is a boring, uncontroversial white man man. If Donald Trump is a corrosive, sulphuric acid upon democracy, Joe Biden is some nice household bleach.
Just what the Donald ordered.
__________________ ”All you have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to you.”
I've been using the NYT github site for a few days to track because it's all in one place. I think the key number is votes remaining, because my site says 120k and you're saying fewer than 100k. If my source is right, he only needs 57% of remaining votes and has been getting between 58-60 the past few batches. If you're right about the number of votes left, he's on track to fall a bit short, if mine is, he just barely gets over the line.
Outstanding vote count has been the hardest thing to get certainty on throughout this whole process. By all accounts Georgia should have run out of votes long ago.
I think the 120k number is correct but includes rejected but “curable” ballots. I’m looking at this guy: https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_A...87539037491201 (does that even work...? I’m a mod and don’t know how to link to twitter. )
Apparently once you remove the “rejected” ballots from the total (on the theory most of those won’t be counted though undoubtedly some will be... who knows) then the remaining ballots are 51,000 regular ballots and 45,000 or so provisionals.
That math is more daunting for Trump though far from impossible given he has been over 60% in some batches. But if we assume provisionals fall along the lines of existing votes in the county they are from (I.E. they don’t skew Trump) the math is even more difficult for him.
A lot of unknowns at this point—other than it will be very, very, close. Today’s Maricopa dump at 4 PM may add some clarity—we shall see.
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So basically we are looking at maybe 108,000 votes still out there if every one gets counted, but only 51K that are sure to be counted. Some percentage of the provisionals will be rejected. Some percentage (maybe significant — I have no idea) of the rejected votes will not be successfully cured.
So we are likely looking at a universe of outstanding votes that is much lower than 120,000, maybe as low as 90-95,000 and we have no idea how provisionals will skew. In a normal election provisional votes tend to be more democratic—but this isn’t a normal election so.... who knows? But that is why I used the 100K number and interestingly it yields a hurdle rate for Trump that is extremely close to his current batch average and maybe just a hair higher.
If Biden gets a relatively good batch from Maricopa today this is likely over—if it is once again around 58% Trump we will just have to keep waiting I guess.
And as I type that Biden wins a batch of 3,000 or so new votes and pads his lead to 19,000. No idea where those came from but obviously just tells us we don’t have any certainty yet as to what these outstanding votes are going to do.
EDIT: they are from Apache county I guess per the github site. So not unexpected for Biden to win 66% of them. That’s basically identical to his existing margin in Apache.
Last edited by Iowa_Flames_Fan; 11-08-2020 at 12:44 PM.
I'm happier, more excited for Biden than any other President or even Prime Minister or Premier in my lifetime.
Why is that?
I think that every politican has faults, especially the high ranking ones.
Part of their job is to make difficult decisions where sometimes there is no right answer.
It means, they're the 'bad guy's by default, no matter what they do.
People here will hate on Trudeau, others will hate on Harper, just as some hate Clinton, others Bush Jr.
So whats sets Trump apart?
Honestly, I think that for all their flaws, our perception of politicians rightly or wrongly, they all have something in common. They all are doing what they think is best for their country/province/state/city/town.
I do believe George Bush Jr did what he though was best for the United States of America. Whether he was right or not isn't my point, it's that I believe Bush 43 did what he felt was best.
Same goes for Clinton, and Obama. Same goes for Trudeau, Harper, Martin, Chretien, etc.
I believe they were/are trying to make their country better.
Trump on the other hand. I don't believe he gives a tinker damn about the United States. I think he's all about short term, what benefits me NOW? His raision d'etre doesn't care if the country burns, so long as he gets praise and lives like a billionaire. Heck, he doesn't even really care if he's a billionaire so long as he gets to live like one and people think he's one.
I'm happy Trump lost not because I don't share the ultra-conservative philosophy, I'm happy because he wasn't trying to make the world a better place he was damaging it for himself.
I've been wrong on policy before. I've changed my mind. The thing is, my belief in making those around me better has never wavered, just the processes in how to do that. I can respect that. I understand you need to walk before you can run.
But Trump...
Trump was lighting things on fire because Flames are fun.
I'm overjoyed that Biden will President because we won't have a president actively trying to tear the country apart.
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Last edited by Maritime Q-Scout; 11-08-2020 at 01:12 PM.
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Time for lust, time for lie
Time to kiss your life goodbye
Send me money, send me green, heaven you will meet
Make a contribution and you'll get a better seat
Bow to Leper Messiah
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