Edmonton is No Good XI: Mud, Sweatpants and Tiers

[butterfly]

I took a look at a group of players (Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr, Joe Sakic, Steve Yzerman) and how their offensive output progressed as they aged.

The chart has been adjusted for COVID-19 and lockout shortened seasons, but not for injuries, as injuries tend to happen more frequently as aging occurs. Unplayed seasons have been omitted. Ages are from what is reported on Hockey Reference.

To account for different scoring eras, I made their maximum career point total 1 and everything else is indexed between 0 and 1.



Chances are highly likely that they have peaked already. This is why I want them to re-sign at a higher aggregate percentage of cap than they played at during their current contracts. What's on the table is their decline years - which aren't going to be horrible, but they won't be at this level anymore.

And this also says nothing about unquantifiable leadership intangibles that the composite group brought that they don't seem to possess.

[All In Good Time]

I’ve said it before, re-signing them would be fantastic. Would have to be very close to 30M for 8 years. Then you have nurse at another 9.5, still paying for Campbell for years and since nurse is making what he does you gotta think Bouchard would get 10M.
Over 50M for 4 players

[Enoch Root]

Great post, Butterfly - thanks!

One qualitative comment I would make is that McDavid and Draisaitl are very focused on points (they, and the Oilers, appear to believe that more points equals more success (slow learners, I know)), so while the other guys that you considered turned their attention to winning and what is required to do so (and thus accepting lower point totals), these two have, and likely will continue, to rack up the points, a little further into their careers. Especially if they remain in Edmonton.

This does not refute anything you said (nor is it trying to), your point is very valid. I'm just saying that I wouldn't be surprised if their declines are a little later and slower, simply due to their focus on points. That doesn't change the expected implications at all though.

[Remember1989]

I wonder if cup wins from those players are more concentrated in the high yield years or in the declining point years.

[McG]

One thing that has been bugging me is the narrative that all of these wrinklies have been signed for discounted contracts.

I see 2 things at play. The first is that these veterans will literally play less than they ever have as the prime ice time is gifted to the glitter twins…so go ahead and get paid more per minute for literally reduced amount and quality of ice time. The second will be how do these players react when they never get premium ice time and sit back and watch. I think these players, when told to sit down, may react in unfavourable ways over what they are used to and especially as the glitter twins get their usual favouritism and premium ice time to help convince them to stay.

I can see the dressing room breaking into factions.

Delicious!

[Groot]

While I get that having a declining Draisatl and McDavid locked in with other players for ~$50 million is hilarious and very unlikely to lead to any success, them both leaving without winning a Cup would be so soul-crushing for Oilers fans and their media, I want nothing but. Then they'll be a joyless franchise for another decade as they trudge through the depths of the NHL, always knowing they're the only franchise to piss away a generational talent due to being a horribly managed organization.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Groot

While I get that having a declining Draisatl and McDavid locked in with other players for ~$50 million is hilarious and very unlikely to lead to any success, them both leaving without winning a Cup would be so soul-crushing for Oilers fans and their media, I want nothing but. Then they'll be a joyless franchise for another decade as they trudge through the depths of the NHL, always knowing they're the only franchise to piss away a generational talent due to being a horribly managed organization.

They will also no doubt join teams much more completely constructed and thus, probably both have some form of sustained success ala most former Oilers.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by butterfly

I took a look at a group of players (Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr, Joe Sakic, Steve Yzerman) and how their offensive output progressed as they aged.

The chart has been adjusted for COVID-19 and lockout shortened seasons, but not for injuries, as injuries tend to happen more frequently as aging occurs. Unplayed seasons have been omitted. Ages are from what is reported on Hockey Reference.

To account for different scoring eras, I made their maximum career point total 1 and everything else is indexed between 0 and 1.

Chances are highly likely that they have peaked already. This is why I want them to re-sign at a higher aggregate percentage of cap than they played at during their current contracts. What's on the table is their decline years - which aren't going to be horrible, but they won't be at this level anymore.

And this also says nothing about unquantifiable leadership intangibles that the composite group brought that they don't seem to possess.

I think you're focusing on the wrong data set. Here's the more important chart.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Remember1989

I wonder if cup wins from those players are more concentrated in the high yield years or in the declining point years.

Using Points per Game...

JAGR

• Won the Cup in his first two seasons, at ages 19 and 20.
• The Cup wins came in his 21st and 14th highest scoring seasons.
• His highest-scoring season was when he was 23.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, all were after his Cup wins.

YZERMAN

• Won the Cup at ages 31, 32, and 36.
• The Cup wins came in his 12th, 17th and 16th highest scoring seasons.
• His highest-scoring season was when he was 23.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, all were before his first Cup win.

SAKIC

• Won the Cup at ages 26 and 31.
• His Cup winning years were also the two highest scoring seasons of his career.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, 5 were before his first Cup win, 2 were between the Cup wins, and 1 was after his Cup wins.

LEMIEUX

• Won the Cup at ages 24 and 25.
• The Cup wins came in his 9th and 6th highest scoring seasons.
• The highest-scoring season of his career was the year after the back-to-back Cups, when he was 26.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, 5 were before he won the Cup and 3 were after.

GRETZKY

• Won the Cup at ages 22, 23, 25 and 26.
• The Cup wins came in his 1st, 4th, 7th, and 6th highest scoring seasons.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, 3 were before he won the Cup, 1 was in the year between Cups, and 2 were after.

Of the 13 Cups won by these players, only 4 were won by the players when they were older than McDavid and Draisaitl will be next season. 3 of those were won by Yzerman after he completely re-invented his game to be less focused on scoring. Too bad the Oilers hired Stan Bowman and not Scotty.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Great post, Butterfly - thanks!

One qualitative comment I would make is that McDavid and Draisaitl are very focused on points (they, and the Oilers, appear to believe that more points equals more success (slow learners, I know)), so while the other guys that you considered turned their attention to winning and what is required to do so (and thus accepting lower point totals), these two have, and likely will continue, to rack up the points, a little further into their careers. Especially if they remain in Edmonton.

This does not refute anything you said (nor is it trying to), your point is very valid. I'm just saying that I wouldn't be surprised if their declines are a little later and slower, simply due to their focus on points. That doesn't change the expected implications at all though.

Thanks friend! As you pointed out, we have already seen that extension of a later peak, too. Some of that could be due to the composite group who were superstars in the 80s and 90s, and it's possible that modern training techniques are responsible for the delayed peak. But my feeling is some of it is also due to what you said about them being focused on scoring.

Every line that's on that chart is something that's already happened - it's the blank space in the future that the Oilers are bidding on, and knowing what happens to players I want them to break the bank for them. They haven't won with them at peak performance making about 26% of cap. I'd love to see them pay 33% of cap for their decline years just because their fans don't want them leaving.

I know their fans think McDavid and Draisaitl belong in a club like this... we will see. As getbak mentioned, most of the Stanley Cups these people won had already happened by this point in their careers.

[Groot]

What's more likely?

The stars align and the Oilers muster up enough luck to win a Cup with a declining McDavid and Draisatl?

Or Hell freezes over and a team with the worst prospect pool in the NHL lead by Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman, Nurse and Bouchard somehow makes a legitimate Cup run?

As long as the Oilers have McDavid and Draisatl they have a chance. If those two leave, they barely have a chance at making the playoffs for the next decade. That's an easy choice.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Groot

What's more likely?

The stars align and the Oilers muster up enough luck to win a Cup with a declining McDavid and Draisatl?

Or Hell freezes over and a team with the worst prospect pool in the NHL lead by Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman, Nurse and Bouchard somehow makes a legitimate Cup run?

As long as the Oilers have McDavid and Draisatl they have a chance. If those two leave, they barely have a chance at making the playoffs for the next decade. That's an easy choice.

The problem is that they will not have the worst prospect pool in the NHL if they trade them. Other than Bedard, I think they could get any prospect in the league for 2 years of McDavid. And more.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Groot

What's more likely?

The stars align and the Oilers muster up enough luck to win a Cup with a declining McDavid and Draisatl?

Or Hell freezes over and a team with the worst prospect pool in the NHL lead by Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman, Nurse and Bouchard somehow makes a legitimate Cup run?

As long as the Oilers have McDavid and Draisatl they have a chance. If those two leave, they barely have a chance at making the playoffs for the next decade. That's an easy choice.

No. Its not...'barely' its entirely off the table.

Everyone else is old, past their prime and...well just frankly bad.

They're going to have to go back to picking between 1st and 3rd overall.

[krynski]

Originally Posted by getbak

Using Points per Game...

JAGR

• Won the Cup in his first two seasons, at ages 19 and 20.
• The Cup wins came in his 21st and 14th highest scoring seasons.
• His highest-scoring season was when he was 23.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, all were after his Cup wins.

YZERMAN

• Won the Cup at ages 31, 32, and 36.
• The Cup wins came in his 12th, 17th and 16th highest scoring seasons.
• His highest-scoring season was when he was 23.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, all were before his first Cup win.

SAKIC

• Won the Cup at ages 26 and 31.
• His Cup winning years were also the two highest scoring seasons of his career.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, 5 were before his first Cup win, 2 were between the Cup wins, and 1 was after his Cup wins.

LEMIEUX

• Won the Cup at ages 24 and 25.
• The Cup wins came in his 9th and 6th highest scoring seasons.
• The highest-scoring season of his career was the year after the back-to-back Cups, when he was 26.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, 5 were before he won the Cup and 3 were after.

GRETZKY

• Won the Cup at ages 22, 23, 25 and 26.
• The Cup wins came in his 1st, 4th, 7th, and 6th highest scoring seasons.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, 3 were before he won the Cup, 1 was in the year between Cups, and 2 were after.

Of the 13 Cups won by these players, only 4 were won by the players when they were older than McDavid and Draisaitl will be next season. 3 of those were won by Yzerman after he completely re-invented his game to be less focused on scoring. Too bad the Oilers hired Stan Bowman and not Scotty.

The salary cap changes things. Before, if you drafted what turns out to be a high-value player, you could pay to fill a team around that player.

Salary Cap came in the 05-06 season:
Jagr won the cup in 91 & 92
Yzerman won the cup in 97, 98, and 02
Sakic won it in 96 & 01
Gretzky won in 84, 85, 87, & 88

All of these players won cups pre-salary cap.

Now, if you have a higher value player, you have less money to spend on the rest of your team. Having an amazing talent is helpful ofcourse, but I feel there is a lot more to it now, and McD & Drai will be eating up a lot of that salary.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

The stars are aligning for these two alberta teams to trade places in 3 years. At least solidifying their respective trajectories.

The Flames are diligently building their prospect base while the oilers are decimating theirs and already the oldest team and isn't getting any younger.

A little more patience will pay off for Flames fans including a sparkling new venue to house all this fresh young talent.

Draisaitl is gone after this season and even if they learn from him walking and make a mammoth McDavid trade, no pieces coming back will come close to McDavid so the drop off will be steep.

I don't think there's enough blackmail or friends they can hire to convince either guy to close out their career there.

[SemicolonD]

Originally Posted by butterfly

The problem is that they will not have the worst prospect pool in the NHL if they trade them. Other than Bedard, I think they could get any prospect in the league for 2 years of McDavid. And more.

I trust the Oilers scouting to manage to choose prospects that won’t have anywhere near the impact that they need so this isn’t a worry to me.

Any scenario that sees McDrai leave is the best scenario, end of discussion.

Especially after the high horse they’ve been on seeing Gaudreau and Tkachuk leave, nothing would be sweeter.

[Redrum]

Originally Posted by Locke

No. Its not...'barely' its entirely off the table.

Everyone else is old, past their prime and...well just frankly bad.

They're going to have to go back to picking between 1st and 3rd overall.

It's going to be hilarious listening to them cry because they have to deal with the "Oiler rule"(low chance of picking 1st even after finishing dead last) for the next 20 year years or whatever.

[McG]

Lost amongst the Holloway/Broberg narratives is the destruction of the Oilers vaunted PK.

One of the key reasons that pissy and others could push the dirty play envelope so hard was because the other team didn’t punish oilers when the greasers did eventually get called.

The net effect will be to concede more goals on greasers PK, meaning that the cheap shots will lead to losses, with the only way out being to stop the slewfoot and slashing crap. Can they? I don’t think so.

It’s delish!

[SemicolonD]

Ya if anything was a unicorn last playoff run it was their PK and defensive play. They traded away most of the reason for that once in a lifetime performance and without that they don’t even make it to the cup last year.

Like say whatever you want about whoever else is going to be on the PK now but there’s also chemistry and other intangibles that come into play. Their off season priority should’ve been to lock down everything about that PK and Defensive play because god knows that sht is not happening again.

Oilers are toast.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by getbak

Using Points per Game...

JAGR

• Won the Cup in his first two seasons, at ages 19 and 20.
• The Cup wins came in his 21st and 14th highest scoring seasons.
• His highest-scoring season was when he was 23.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, all were after his Cup wins.

YZERMAN

• Won the Cup at ages 31, 32, and 36.
• The Cup wins came in his 12th, 17th and 16th highest scoring seasons.
• His highest-scoring season was when he was 23.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, all were before his first Cup win.

SAKIC

• Won the Cup at ages 26 and 31.
• His Cup winning years were also the two highest scoring seasons of his career.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, 5 were before his first Cup win, 2 were between the Cup wins, and 1 was after his Cup wins.

LEMIEUX

• Won the Cup at ages 24 and 25.
• The Cup wins came in his 9th and 6th highest scoring seasons.
• The highest-scoring season of his career was the year after the back-to-back Cups, when he was 26.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, 5 were before he won the Cup and 3 were after.

GRETZKY

• Won the Cup at ages 22, 23, 25 and 26.
• The Cup wins came in his 1st, 4th, 7th, and 6th highest scoring seasons.
• Of his 10 highest-scoring seasons, 3 were before he won the Cup, 1 was in the year between Cups, and 2 were after.

Of the 13 Cups won by these players, only 4 were won by the players when they were older than McDavid and Draisaitl will be next season. 3 of those were won by Yzerman after he completely re-invented his game to be less focused on scoring. Too bad the Oilers hired Stan Bowman and not Scotty.

Great post.

The more modern salary cap era comparison is always Crosby and Malkin too - who made 4 finals in their career:

2007-08: 20 / 21 - ELC / ELC
2008-09: 21 / 22 - $8.7M / ELC
2015-16: 28 / 29 - $8.7M / $9.5M
2016-17: 29 / 30 - $8.7M / $9.5M

Penguins never really made it close again after that, winning only one round total since both of those guys turned 30.

McDavid and Draisaitl are 27 and 28 respectively right now (turning 28 and 29 in the season) ...so the window isn't closed but it only has a couple years left.

And the contract situation really means that this season is their best chances to win because I doubt we see a Crosby level of discount from either of those guys to stay in Edmonton. Next season you are going to have both Draisailt and Bouchard needing to make $10M+ and it's just going to get tougher for a team struggling to get under the cap this season. They might be able to navigate this, but honestly this upcoming season really seems like the best chance they will have to win a cup in the McDavid era.