The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by ben voyonsdonc

Here is my crazy idea: rotate starts between Liriano and Sanchez. Sanchez would still start but every 10th game instead of every 5th.

That's not a bad idea. Bonus, If the games Sanchez pitches aren't close you can throw Liriano out there to save the bullpen arms for the next game.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by Parallex

That's not a bad idea. Bonus, If the games Sanchez pitches aren't close you can throw Liriano out there to save the bullpen arms for the next game.

Only problem with this is that this will now take up 2 spots on the 25-man roster, meaning one less bench player or one less arm in the bullpen. Won't matter come September, but for the rest of August the team is essentially one man short.

[Blaster86]

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[Sylvanfan]

This series with the Astros has been something. All of the Jays runs so far have been on solo home runs. Scoring 6 runs in 3 games isn't great....hitting 6 homers in that span is. There's also been a lot of striking out by the Jays of late too. Perhaps that inviting left field is getting guys to swing, and maybe the ball park lighting is making it tougher to see. Hopefully the Jays can figure out how to do a better job of making contact and getting productive at bats without losing in the power department.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Originally Posted by calculoso

Only problem with this is that this will now take up 2 spots on the 25-man roster, meaning one less bench player or one less arm in the bullpen. Won't matter come September, but for the rest of August the team is essentially one man short.

I agree that this could be an issue. They could use Liriano in long relief once or twice between starts until September.

[habernac]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

This series with the Astros has been something. All of the Jays runs so far have been on solo home runs. Scoring 6 runs in 3 games isn't great....hitting 6 homers in that span is. There's also been a lot of striking out by the Jays of late too. Perhaps that inviting left field is getting guys to swing, and maybe the ball park lighting is making it tougher to see. Hopefully the Jays can figure out how to do a better job of making contact and getting productive at bats without losing in the power department.

Even the black guys are wearing eye black there, the lights must be crazy.

The bats will need to come alive sooner or later, the funk they're in currently is nuts. Jose is getting his timing back, hopefully Tulo can go soon and Donaldson keeps bringing it.

[Cuz]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

This series with the Astros has been something. All of the Jays runs so far have been on solo home runs. Scoring 6 runs in 3 games isn't great....hitting 6 homers in that span is. There's also been a lot of striking out by the Jays of late too. Perhaps that inviting left field is getting guys to swing, and maybe the ball park lighting is making it tougher to see. Hopefully the Jays can figure out how to do a better job of making contact and getting productive at bats without losing in the power department.

I've been wondering if the batter's eye has something to do with it as well.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by calculoso

Only problem with this is that this will now take up 2 spots on the 25-man roster, meaning one less bench player or one less arm in the bullpen. Won't matter come September, but for the rest of August the team is essentially one man short.

Sanchez still has options left does he not?

Option him to the minors immediately after his next start, call up bench player/bullpen arm, then recall him (Sanchez) 10 days later, repeat once, problem solved.

[JiriHrdina]

I think the big question like that is if something like that would reduce the risk or elevate it. I have no idea. But it is a dramatic change in terms of a pitcher normally does - and I'd be worry about the long layoffs between starts.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

But it is a dramatic change in terms of a pitcher normally does

There is literally nothing they can do that isn't going to be "a dramatic change in terms of a pitcher normally does". That being the case I want them to do whatever results in the Jays having an effective Sanchez start in the post-season.

[JiriHrdina]

Even at the risk of his long term future? What if that is no longer an option.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

This series with the Astros has been something. All of the Jays runs so far have been on solo home runs. Scoring 6 runs in 3 games isn't great....hitting 6 homers in that span is. There's also been a lot of striking out by the Jays of late too. Perhaps that inviting left field is getting guys to swing, and maybe the ball park lighting is making it tougher to see. Hopefully the Jays can figure out how to do a better job of making contact and getting productive at bats without losing in the power department.

They were talking about this yesterday. I believe they tied a franchise record for strikeouts in a 4 game series with 50 Ks yesterday. And they still have another full game to play in the series. Not good.

I will caveat that with the fact that they've played 8 extra innings so far due to 2 extra inning games, but still.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Even at the risk of his long term future?

*Shrug*

Show me the research/data.

Moving him to the bullpen for the rest of the season (including the post-season) will decrease the odds of the Jays winning the world series in a year where the playoffs are clearly within sight. So... show me how much of a risk it is to his long term future using cold hard statistically derived facts.

If it's just some nebulous anecdotally driven assumption then eff that... I want me a flag that flies forever (or at least the best shot at same).

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

They were talking about this yesterday. I believe they tied a franchise record for strikeouts in a 4 game series with 50 Ks yesterday. And they still have another full game to play in the series. Not good.

I will caveat that with the fact that they've played 8 extra innings so far due to 2 extra inning games, but still.

The jays are feast or famine, and have been for about the past decade, it's just more people care now so it gets talked about more. The team is built for Rogers Center. Built to hit homeruns, not for average.


Someone was saying earlier that the Jays have no glaring weaknesses in their lineup. I disagree. I would argue that as much as we've argued about pitching/bullpen, the Jays biggest weakness is an inability to drive in runs without the homerun and the fact that often time their homers are of the solo variety.

Good pitching generally beats good hitting. In the playoffs your are going to be getting a steady diet of good pitching. If the Jays can't knock a guy in from first or second with no outs without hitting a home run, they are going to have some serious trouble in the playoffs. When the ball is kept in play, it's hard for them to win.

Look at Kansas last year. If they got on base, the guy was going to score. They didn't need to drive it into the upper deck to score. A walk and a couple singles was going to get them a run.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Even at the risk of his long term future? What if that is no longer an option.

The idea of putting him directly into high leverage situations in the bullpen (which is what I think they plan to do) isn't super smart. I don't think it is just the inning count but also the degree of stress of the inning that can be taxing on his arm (ie throwing him into the game with men on base in the 7th or 8th inning).

I'd rather him stay in the starting rotation and try to find creative ways to reduce his starts.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I think the big question like that is if something like that would reduce the risk or elevate it. I have no idea. But it is a dramatic change in terms of a pitcher normally does - and I'd be worry about the long layoffs between starts.

Increases it, bigtime. You have to be stretched out to be a starter. Ten days between starts doesn't not keep you stretched out. Big risk of tearing something or throwing something out.

[Roof-Daddy]

I'm no expert, but I agree with Alpine here. If you are going to shut him down, keep him starting until he hits his limit and shut him down completely.

Either that, or don't shut him down at all.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by ben voyonsdonc

The idea of putting him directly into high leverage situations in the bullpen (which is what I think they plan to do) isn't super smart. I don't think it is just the inning count but also the degree of stress of the inning that can be taxing on his arm (ie throwing him into the game with men on base in the 7th or 8th inning).

I'd rather him stay in the starting rotation and try to find creative ways to reduce his starts.

I don't think leverage directly affects it much (if at all) although I do wonder how much (if any) of a difference it (sending him to the bullpen) makes...

Two starts (10 Games) = say 13.333 innings & 200 pitches. Roughly 15 pitches per inning plus two sets of warm-up pitches. Assuming he doesn't pitch on consecutive games in the bullpen you get 75 pitches plus 5 sets of warm-up pitches over the same period. Also Relievers typically go for max effort (hence greater velo comming out of the pen). After factoring in the additional 3 sets of warm-up pitches and greater effort per pitch I'm not sure how much (if any) difference there is in terms of arm stress.

Seriously... go with a 6 man rotation and give him a 75 pitch count until the playoffs and you'll probably save the same (or more) amount of arm stress and have him available to start in the playoffs. Absent any compelling data I think shuttling him off to the bullpen is idiotic.

[mrkajz44]

I kind of wanted to avoid the Sanchez debate, but here I am. There is no way Sanchez stays a starter much longer (his start tomorrow is up for debate right now). It's hard to have a scientific study on something like this due to the lack of a "control" group, but recent history shows that big jumps in innings increase risk of injury.

Check out this article (http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/02/09/yea...-luis-severino). Each year it predicts pitchers that will get injured due to a large spike in innings pitched compared to their career high. His predictions (and results) from last year. The percentages was the increase in innings pitched compared to their previous career high:

Jesse Hahn, Oakland (58.4%): Shut down in July with elbow discomfort and a right forearm strain, five years removed from Tommy John surgery.

Rubby De La Rosa, Arizona (46.5%): Made 32 starts; his 4.67 ERA (up from 4.43) was the second worst of any NL qualifier.

Daniel Norris, Toronto/Detroit (44.5%): Threw 150 2/3 combined innings in the minors and majors and missed four weeks with an oblique injury.

Yordano Ventura, Kansas City (38.9%): ERA rose from 3.20 to 4.08.

Marcus Stroman, Toronto (34.8%): Blew out his knee in spring training; missed five months.

Now for his predictions for this year (with my results beside them):

Lance McCullers (56.7%) - Just placed on the 15 day DL with elbow discomfort. Came out of the game suddenly with no apparent trauma to the elbow

Noah Syndergaard (49.4%) - Issues with "deadarm" in July but appears to be doing okay now

Luis Severino (43.1%) - Stint on the DL earlier in the year and sent down to AAA after an 0-6 start

Carlos Martinez (41.5%) - Seems to be okay at this point

Tyler Duffey (31.3%) - Been terrible with a 7.15 ERA in his last 8 starts. Briefly removed from the rotation as he was that bad

I know none this is scientific, and is dealt with on a case by case basis, but there is sufficient evidence there to show a correlation between a spike in innings pitched, and resulting issues (injury or decreased effectiveness). This is why Sanchez will be on an innings limit, and why it is a good idea. The fact that he's been Cy Young like was just a bonus, but everyone knew this is coming, and realistically this is the right decision.

[flambers]

I also heard, the issue is not really linked to innings pitched but with the amount of pitches per inning. I can't remember the term used.

Example some innings may last 5 pitches others are 30 pitches...

Its the hard innings, that the Jays will watch and track.