Calgary Real Estate predictions? - Page 26 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

burn_this_city · 01-21-2009, 12:28 PM

More Kool-aid from the CREB. Hopefully fewer people are buying into the sunshine and rainbows they're spewing out.

SeeGeeWhy · 01-21-2009, 12:30 PM

http://calgaryrealestatemarketblog.wordpress.com:80/
Interesting blog here

burn_this_city · 01-21-2009, 12:38 PM

Radley used to post on here until people started attacking his positions.

photon · 01-21-2009, 12:50 PM

That is pretty interesting.

It's futility to try to predict how much prices will rise or fall, and really it doesn't matter much except to speculators (such as people who were flipping).

I was going to say I hate all the negativity around housing prices, while it is something to watch some media spins it like its the end of the world. "Joe lost $40,000 this past year alone." Um, no Joe didn't, unless he sold. After a 45% increase everyone and their dog was saying there would be a correction, then when there is one the media is aghast.

We had a net 56,000 person increase in population in Alberta last year, unemployment is moving but not by 56,000 worth so that means jobs are still being created. I can't even remember if I've seen it said that Alberta itself is actually in a recession.

Sorry, just get frustrated at all the doom and gloom, when economic recoveries are so dependent on public perception.

EDIT: Oh man he had some videos of Benjamin Tal up but they've been removed

I've personally listened to Mr Tal.

Slava · 01-21-2009, 12:52 PM

I just don't see an enormous drop in Real Estate in Calgary. I'm sure that the market will tighten up and prices might drop another 5% or maybe even 10%, but with borrowing getter cheaper, and most of the layoffs over in the next 6 months things should improve for the housing market in the 2nd half of the year and beyond.

photon · 01-21-2009, 12:55 PM

The prediction from the province I think is 51,000 net increase in population for 2009.

The wild card is the inventory that's off the radar, there are a lot of people who've taken places of the market and are just sitting on them, renting them for a loss, etc. How many is impossible to tell.

troutman · 01-21-2009, 01:40 PM

I think CREB had a forecast luncheon today - I'll see what I can find out.

Shin Pad · 01-21-2009, 02:13 PM

Actually, if you are staying in the market and want to move to a different house (either up size or down size), it's a good time to make a move. Yes, the price for your house is down, and it is harder to sell than when it was booming. On the other hand, when you go to buy another house, you have a lot more selection and the prices are also down for buying. Also, you don't need to rush in to make an offer for fear of missing out. If you are building a new house, the time frame to get one built has shortened up considerably and the builders might be more inclined to throw in extras that you may not have received in boom times. Because builders aren't going 110 mph trying to get things done, the quality of construction is also bound to go up - they will have more time to do things right (I know - it depends on the builder and some will do a crappy job no matter what the state of the economy is).

So, if you are just moving to a different house within the same market, it's probably better to do so now than when it was booming.

Jetsfan · 01-21-2009, 03:23 PM

I like reading this blog, especially the "comments" part.

http://albertabubble.blogspot.com/

Patrick · 01-21-2009, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shin Pad

Actually, if you are staying in the market and want to move to a different house (either up size or down size), it's a good time to make a move. Yes, the price for your house is down, and it is harder to sell than when it was booming. On the other hand, when you go to buy another house, you have a lot more selection and the prices are also down for buying. Also, you don't need to rush in to make an offer for fear of missing out. If you are building a new house, the time frame to get one built has shortened up considerably and the builders might be more inclined to throw in extras that you may not have received in boom times. Because builders aren't going 110 mph trying to get things done, the quality of construction is also bound to go up - they will have more time to do things right (I know - it depends on the builder and some will do a crappy job no matter what the state of the economy is).

So, if you are just moving to a different house within the same market, it's probably better to do so now than when it was booming.

That is only applicable for people with mroe equity built up than their sales price.

For people who just got into a house (last few years) this is a horrible move as the loss on the 1st property doesnt offset the "lower price" on their bigger house.

Nancy · 01-21-2009, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

I like reading this blog, especially the "comments" part.

http://albertabubble.blogspot.com/

I used to read the old Calgary bubble blog occasionally before it shut down... didn't know another had sprouted up. Funny to see the same crowd on this new blog, especially that Squiddly character.

megatron · 01-21-2009, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fotze

The news is leading off on the prices going down 2% this year, predicted by realtors. Ya right, I'd take 2% in a heartbeat. Saying Calgary is going to get missed by the recession? WDF?

I think most news casters just read the news, not investigate it.

Nancy · 01-21-2009, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fotze

The news is leading off on the prices going down 2% this year, predicted by realtors. Ya right, I'd take 2% in a heartbeat. Saying Calgary is going to get missed by the recession? WDF?

You can see how these rocket scientists came up with their prediction by looking at the last page of their presentation, here:

http://www.creb.com/public/documents...esentation.pdf

They just extended the 2007-2008 trend line straight into 2009.

EDIT: Funny, we are already well below the price level they are predicting for 2009. The 30 day average price on the CREB web site is $419,000, and their graph shows the year ending at $451,000. WDF?

FurnaceFace · 01-21-2009, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fotze

Saying Calgary is going to get missed by the recession? WDF?

Slava (or others) can confirm, but I believe the technical definition of a "recession" is 3 quarters of negative growth in a row. I don't even think Calgary has had one quarter yet. I don't think Q408 got bad enough early enough to be negative so we are perhaps starting with the current quarter. Depending on what happens with the wacky oil prices it could bounce back as quickly as it went down. (I'll do my best to convince any Oil Sheiks I see in Dubai next month to turn down the taps.)

Slava · 01-21-2009, 07:59 PM

A technical recession is two quarters of negative growth, which is likely where we are in the middle of right now. I don't disagree that Calgary real estate will be hit by the recession and resulting slow down, but I do think that the drop in prices over the past year have factored some of that in.

I think that the jury is still out on whether Alberta will actually hit a technical recession. Not to say times are great here, but the two quarters of consecutive growth might not be hit, thats all.

Shin Pad · 01-21-2009, 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patrick

That is only applicable for people with mroe equity built up than their sales price.

For people who just got into a house (last few years) this is a horrible move as the loss on the 1st property doesnt offset the "lower price" on their bigger house.

You are absolutely correct. Sorry, I should have mentioned that. However, anyone that bought their home in 2004 or earlier, is going to have a lot of equity in it.

AFireInside · 01-21-2009, 11:40 PM

To be honest, CREB is a joke. Everyday for the past several months (about 6) listings have out numbered sales by at least 2 -3 to 1. Since the beginning of January, listings have outnumbered sales most days at least 4 to 1, some days much more. Thing is you can not just look at listings to sales. There is also a category for price changes. (All of which are changes downward these days). Those also outnumber sales by a similar margin.

As far as the spring goes, there is going to be a huge number of listings, and with the economy going the way it is, and people being laid off, there will be far fewer buyers, add to that no more 40 year, 0 down mortgages, and it does not look good for the sellers (those that are looking to flip, or make a lot of money on a recent purchase). People are going to be very cautious when buying.

Honestly I think that we will be looking at drops of at least 15% this year.

As far as listing prices go, I've already seen some houses drop well over 10% from their original listed price.

Winsor_Pilates · 01-22-2009, 12:20 AM

We've sold 200+ condos in the last 3 days and should get close to 400 by weeks end. I've got over 6000 registrants for our projects in only 1 week of advertising, and phone lines that ring off the hook at all hours of the day and night.

I've been amazed by what I've seen in the last week, and it has shown me that people will still buy real estate if the price is right. People have money, they just won't waste it and need a good deal.
Does this mean we've seen bottom and things will move back up? probably not yet, but I do feel fairly confident in the long term value of real estate, especially here in Vancouver.

photon · 01-22-2009, 06:45 AM

And that's Vancouver where the affordability is crap compared to Calgary.

AFireInside · 01-22-2009, 07:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

We've sold 200+ condos in the last 3 days and should get close to 400 by weeks end. I've got over 6000 registrants for our projects in only 1 week of advertising, and phone lines that ring off the hook at all hours of the day and night.

I've been amazed by what I've seen in the last week, and it has shown me that people will still buy real estate if the price is right. People have money, they just won't waste it and need a good deal.
Does this mean we've seen bottom and things will move back up? probably not yet, but I do feel fairly confident in the long term value of real estate, especially here in Vancouver.

Are these condos that are sold in an auction type format, ONNI, or MAC?

Most predictions I have been reading suggest that the drop in Vancouver will be larger than the drop in Calgary. I do agree, with you, if the price is right and people feel like they are getting a deal they will buy. Developers have the ability to lower their prices. Problem is that many people who purchased in the last couple years, and want to sell to make a quick buck won't be able to.

Either way, it will be very interesting to see what happens in the spring or summer.