WCSF - Colorado Avalanche (2) vs. Dallas Stars (3)

[Calgary4LIfe]

I believe that fear is misplaced. Early on in the Flames' rebuild, their were standing ovations from the crowd for their effort and entertainment value - even when they lost at times.



Factor-in Edmonton to the equation. They have continually supported that no good team through embarrassing seasons.



Yes, there is impatience in any Canadian market, but I do think that most people are understanding of what a rebuild entails. What people get sick of is mediocrity in both the standings and the on-ice entertainment value.



Also of consideration - anyone in Calgary a 'marketable face'? It was Giordano's team entering the rebuild, but he is aging. Monahan was the heir apparent - but he just isn't that dynamic presence, and a good segment of the fans want him run out of town now. Gaudreau definitely was becoming the 'face of the franchise' - he was electric and a terrific story, but again, a large segment of the fanbase want him gone.


I don't know for sure myself obviously, but I do think that fear is misplaced. With the world going through a terrible pandemic, I can't imagine ticket sales are going to be a thing in the upcoming season, so that's one 'free' season of rebuilding where a team doesn't have to worry about low ticket sales and apathy relative to its' peers.


I am not sure a rebuild SHOULD happen again, but I do think that if the Flames are moving Gaudreau and Monahan, with Brodie leaving and Giordano aging- they probably aren't going to get players back at that level, and then you just might as well enter a full rebuild. As I have stated in previous posts, I am ok with either entering a rebuild, or going full out with the existing core somehow.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Flames were in the running for the MacKinnon draft, but then just decided to play actual hockey when it didn't matter. And even if Flames made it to the bottom 5, knowing their luck, they probably wouldn't have won the draft lottery anyways.

This and Enoch's posts just serve to reinforce how much the gap between success and failure is really out of the control of coaches, GMs and scouts, and much luck plays a part in separating winners from losers in the NHL.

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[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Yes, there is impatience in any Canadian market, but I do think that most people are understanding of what a rebuild entails. What people get sick of is mediocrity in both the standings and the on-ice entertainment value...

I completely disagree. Hard-core fans like those of us here get sick of mediocrity, and we are the ones who are willing and eager to accept and see the process of team-building. But we make up a fraction of the fanbase, and represent only a very small portion of ticket sales and revenue. The much larger representation of the fanbase is less invested in the ebbs and flows of the sports cycle, and I firmly believe are much more likely to stop caring altogether when the on-ice results lag.

And drawing any comparison to Edmonton is a non-starter. The market is more like a cult, complete with it's own history revisionists and propaganda wing.

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[Inglewood Jack]

if you're not going to suck enough to get a top 3 pick, and/or you're not lucky enough to grab a franchise player or two with those picks, then the only other option is to load up with as big a quantity of picks as possible over a 5 year span, and trust scouting to hit on enough of them to have the same effect as drafting one MacKinnon.

unfortunately the Flames didn't really go that route either, hence middling borderline playoff team with no clear path to elite status. I hope management going forward treats its draft picks like Smaug hoarding a mountain of gold, because I'm pretty sure we're not going to be in the Aatu Raty or Shane Wright sweepstakes.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Inglewood Jack

if you're not going to suck enough to get a top 3 pick, and/or you're not lucky enough to grab a franchise player or two with those picks, then the only other option is to load up with as big a quantity of picks as possible over a 5 year span, and trust scouting to hit on enough of them to have the same effect as drafting one MacKinnon.

unfortunately the Flames didn't really go that route either, hence middling borderline playoff team with no clear path to elite status. I hope management going forward treats its draft picks like Smaug hoarding a mountain of gold, because I'm pretty sure we're not going to be in the Aatu Raty or Shane Wright sweepstakes.

We did do this round 1 of 2013, but managed to select the two players in the first round that played the least amount of time in the NHL

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I believe that fear is misplaced.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I completely disagree. Hard-core fans like those of us here get sick of mediocrity, and we are the ones who are willing and eager to accept and see the process of team-building. But we make up a fraction of the fanbase, and represent only a very small portion of ticket sales and revenue. The much larger representation of the fanbase is less invested in the ebbs and flows of the sports cycle, and I firmly believe are much more likely to stop caring altogether when the on-ice results lag.

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle, and closer to Calgary4Life's view. I believe that ownership/management think Textcritic is right, but I think they misread the lay of the land.

As for the fans, I believe they could and would stomach a rebuild for a few years, maybe 5 or 6. But there would be either pitchforks in the streets, or complete apathy if it dragged towards 10 years.

It is definitely tougher in Canada, where the team can't just disappear behind the football or basketball team for a decade.

[Inglewood Jack]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

We did do this round 1 of 2013, but managed to select the two players in the first round that played the least amount of time in the NHL

That’s gonna happen even to teams with good scouting (not sure if ours fell into that category at the time), which is why you help minimize the pain of busts by sheer quantity. I’m convinced that if the Flames kept all their picks since then, avoided UFAs and stuck to tweak level trades, we’d have a higher ceiling and more cost efficient roster today with a longer competitive window.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Inglewood Jack

That’s gonna happen even to teams with good scouting (not sure if ours fell into that category at the time), which is why you help minimize the pain of busts by sheer quantity. I’m convinced that if the Flames kept all their picks since then, avoided UFAs and stuck to tweak level trades, we’d have a higher ceiling and more cost efficient roster today with a longer competitive window.

Scouting is extremely hard, and I tend to think that the Flames made really smart picks in the first round of 2013. Poirier looked like an absolute steal for the first two years after the draft—but the way life took a toll on him and derailed his hockey career is not something that scouts or teams can really plan for. It's tragic, but it happens.

[Flash Walken]

It is laugh out loud funny to suggest the Flames owners don't want to rebuild because they don't want to risk being really bad. Where is the self-awareness of what this franchise has accomplished? The Flames have missed the playoffs in 6 of the last 10 years.

It's also laugh out loud funny to suggest that a team that has drafted multiple first rounders in the same year ONE time has had even one 'full rebuild' in the history of their franchise.

It's further laugh out loud funny to think that a 3 year period for a team with a decade + history of dealing significant draft picks is enough to claw them out of the asset hole. The evidence for that is this specific flames 'rebuild' which has been significantly undercut not just through the latest years of pick trading, but the 5-7 years of pick trading that preceded it.

The Flames aren't signing a bunch of PTOs every year because the cupboards are stocked up and there are a ton of rookies pushing for NHL spots.

Look at what Colorado has done in terms of the moves that have brought them here and where the assets came from for those moves. Barrie was a 2009 draft pick, traded last summer for Kadri who has been a huge part of that Avalanche supporting cast this year.

Colorado just drafted Byram with 4th overall and have Sam Girard playing solid minutes in their lineup after moving another 2009 draft asset in Duchene.

The continuity of picks from a decade ago is something the Flames simply do not have as assets to use to further their cause, which is why they continually sell future assets, deepening the cycle.

The luck component of Drafting MacKinnon is of course huge and the Avalanche wouldn't be close to as good without him, but the simple fact is the supporting cast of their team has been assembled with high picks and frequent drafting. They kept their picks and were bad instead of selling them to take a run at 8th. They drafted Landeskog 2nd overall, MacKinnon 1stoverall, Makar 4th overall and Rantanen 10th overall.

Barrie was a 3rd round pick in 2009 and Brodie was a 4th round pick that same year, both pending UFAs this year.

Colorado turned Barrie into Kadri and the Flames have turned Brodie into nothing. It's all well and good that the Flames tried to do the same deal Colorado did, but ultimately this isn't a game of coulda woulda shoulda.

Draft pick continuity from 2009 is going to continue to pay off for Colorado through the next few years while the 2009 draft from the Flames is all but officially gone.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

It is laugh out loud funny to suggest the Flames owners don't want to rebuild because they don't want to risk being really bad.

No one suggested this.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Barrie was a 3rd round pick in 2009 and Brodie was a 4th round pick that same year, both pending UFAs this year.

Colorado turned Barrie into Kadri and the Flames have turned Brodie into nothing. It's all well and good that the Flames tried to do the same deal Colorado did, but ultimately this isn't a game of coulda woulda shoulda.

Draft pick continuity from 2009 is going to continue to pay off for Colorado through the next few years while the 2009 draft from the Flames is all but officially gone.

This is a very good point imo. We are historically awful at making that exact decision and selling off players when we have the chance to. Brodie and Hamonic both should have been traded during the last year.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

This is a very good point imo. We are historically awful at making that exact decision and selling off players when we have the chance to. Brodie and Hamonic both should have been traded during the last year.

Yup. Tried and true formula of the Calgary Flames organization.

"BUT PLAYOFFS!!"

Flames are a weak organization in terms of asset management and reading the landscape properly.

[dino7c]

For every AVS there are 10 teams that sucked for years and still suck. It's not as simple as some seem to think.

30 teams aren't going to win the cup...they all should have sold at the deadline.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

This is a very good point imo. We are historically awful at making that exact decision and selling off players when we have the chance to. Brodie and Hamonic both should have been traded during the last year.

It is not at all a good point since the only reason Colorado was able to turn Barrie into Kadri in the first place was because Kadri exhausted his trade vetos on teams other than Colorado. It's not like the Avalanche did something above and beyond what the Flames did. They made the same deal after the fact when circumstances outside of every team's control prevented Kadri from becoming a Calgary Flame. In other words, Colorado got lucky.

As usual, Flash Walken has selected facts to suit his own tired narrative about how the Flames are the worst NHL franchise in recent history.

[combustiblefuel]

Originally Posted by dino7c

For every AVS there are 10 teams that sucked for years and still suck. It's not as simple as some seem to think.

30 teams aren't going to win the cup...they all should have sold at the deadline.

That's true but If it wasn't for Arizona and Edmonton we would continually be the biggest disappointment in our division annually. The other teams seem to always find a way to stay competitive. This year is a weird year tho to judge success . Our divisional rivals seem to find ways to get the big names and retool on the fly. Then again who wouldn't rather live on the coast or in the bigger cities when your a young millionaire.

[dino7c]

Geography hurts the Flames and most Canadian teams...it's not an excuse it's a fact. They would have Kadri and Stone in another market and who knows what else

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

It is not at all a good point since the only reason Colorado was able to turn Barrie into Kadri in the first place was because Kadri exhausted his trade vetos on teams other than Colorado. It's not like the Avalanche did something above and beyond what the Flames did. They made the same deal after the fact when circumstances outside of every team's control prevented Kadri from becoming a Calgary Flame. In other words, Colorado got lucky.

As usual, Flash Walken has selected facts to suit his own tired narrative about how the Flames are the worst NHL franchise in recent history.

LoL, big game hunting! How we would laugh and laugh about all the 'almost' trades the Oilers have made over the years.

If you built a team on the Trades treliving almost made they'd be a cup contender!

The point is, The Avalanche turned a pending free agent defender into a future asset and the Flames did sweet #### all with their 2 pending UFA defenders. It didn't have to be the Kadri deal, it could've been any deal, for either of the defenders that had top 4 value.

You can dance around and wave your hands about going big game hunting and all these deals that were on the table, but Colorado is heading to a round 2 game 7 and the Flames are golfing and Kadri has 16 points in 14 playoff games this year and Brodie is gone.

Big Game Hunting! Treliving is working the phones!

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

For every AVS there are 10 teams that sucked for years and still suck. It's not as simple as some seem to think.

30 teams aren't going to win the cup...they all should have sold at the deadline.

This.

More than one way to win. They don't have to go full scorched earth to improve this roster.

We still have lots of good pieces that are young and under team control for a while still (Tkachuk, Lindholm, Hanifin, Andersson, Bennett, Dube, Mangiapane, Kylington, etc).

If you want to move on from the older core (Monahan, Gaudreau, Gio, Backlund) there is still a path to do that, add to the young core listed above, and not go scorched earth.

The one big thing though is you do need to take advantage of expiring assets to keep a team competitive. And not doing so with Brodie and Hamonic will hurt them longer term.

[dobbles]

You guys are obsessing about the Avs. There is more than 1 way to make a team. They haven't won anything yet and at this point are still fighting against a team that has built without many high draft picks. Dallas seems to have a home-run with Heiskanen, but aside from that, they haven't had a pick in the single digits in the last decade either. (Nichuskin was 10 so he kept me from being able to say 'top 10' pick)

Dallas had a good mixture of trades working out (Spezza, Seguin), FA signings (Bishop [yes I know they technically traded for his rights], Radulov), and late drafting (Benn, Klingberg). So try not to get too obsessed with the Avs because 4 days ago they were looking like they might not be as good as the Stars hodgepodge building strategy.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by dobbles

You guys are obsessing about the Avs. There is more than 1 way to make a team. They haven't won anything yet and at this point are still fighting against a team that has built without many high draft picks. Dallas seems to have a home-run with Heiskanen, but aside from that, they haven't had a pick in the single digits in the last decade either. (Nichuskin was 10 so he kept me from being able to say 'top 10' pick)

Dallas had a good mixture of trades working out (Spezza, Seguin), FA signings (Bishop [yes I know they technically traded for his rights], Radulov), and late drafting (Benn, Klingberg). So try not to get too obsessed with the Avs because 4 days ago they were looking like they might not be as good as the Stars hodgepodge building strategy.

The stars have drafted in the first round every since 2009, have picked multiple times in the 1st round twice in that span, and made 9 1st round selections in the top 15.

So just in the last 10 years they've 1) Drafted higher than the flames ever have and 2) drafted in the first round more than once more times than the Flames ever have.

1st round selection Denis Gurianov has 14 points in 15 playoff games this year.

So even if Supermatt is right about there being more than one way of doing things, the Flames aren't doing it the way the stars are, either.