10-12-2015, 12:58 PM
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#501
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Behind Nikkor Glass
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90+ minute wait at the Shawnessy YMCA hockey arena, f that noise.
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10-12-2015, 01:21 PM
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#502
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Pickle Jar Lake
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunk
Advance poll turnout is apparently up 36% over 2011, which is not usually good news for an incumbent.
That said, the Conservatives have proven they have a very effective get out the vote machine that can probably make up a couple of points compared to their rivals. In seat count I think it'll be pretty close - probably the liberals squeaking out a minority.
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It may be that the reason the liberals did so poorly recently is that lots of them stayed home for Ignatief and Dion. I'd suspect high Liberal turnout this time.
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10-12-2015, 07:05 PM
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#503
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I believe in the Jays.
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Only about a half hour at St. Andrews for Heritage today. Not to bad (although the venue seemed awfully small to me... used to voting in gymnasiums not church basements).
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10-12-2015, 09:50 PM
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#504
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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The Sauder School market predictions show the Liberals with a six point lead, and the NDP taking an absolute beating.
https://predictionmarkets.ca/CA15.php
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10-13-2015, 09:26 AM
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#505
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First Line Centre
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Election Canada did well for my riding to rent the Hamptons Golf Course for the advance poll. It was a bit of a wait but staying inside a nice building and looking out to the golf course helped alleviate the pain of waiting.
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10-13-2015, 10:42 AM
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#506
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Deep South
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Advance poll at the Deerfot Inn Casino was bonkos - it went out onto the sidewalk, so we didn't even go inside (this was the holiday Monday).
I wonder how much the advance polls affect the polling result now. Apparently there are a ton of decided already, and I suspect they are not voting for status quo (i.e. don't want to miss the vote on Monday, so they are sure to get the vote in now). With the liberals already polling in the lead, the good turnout is probably great news for them.
__________________
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10-13-2015, 10:54 AM
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#507
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Victoria, BC
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I did advanced voting on Friday and it was also nuts. I've never seen this before. Multiple lines inside, a huge line out the door wrapping around the building. Congested full parking lot with cars trying to turn in off the main road causing traffic build up.
In the past when I've gone to advanced voting it was just walk in, handful of people there, and out really fast.
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10-13-2015, 01:14 PM
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#508
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I believe in the Jays.
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Not officially out yet but apparently someone at iPolitics had a ichy trigger finger and put up the latest Ekos early (since removed but I got the numbers from Twitter which Frank Graves basically confirmed) so grain of salt and all that...
LPC 35.6
CPC 31.1
NDP 20.6
GRN 7.5
... didn't see anyone with the Bloc numbers but by process of elimination it's probably 5.2ish.
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10-13-2015, 01:32 PM
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#509
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2004
Location: YSJ (1979-2002) -> YYC (2002-2022) -> YVR (2022-present)
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If true, that's a big shift from EKOS. Their last poll (Oct 8-10) had the CPC leading with 35.5 vs the Liberals at 33.1.
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10-13-2015, 01:34 PM
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#510
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parallex
Not officially out yet but apparently someone at iPolitics had a ichy trigger finger and put up the latest Ekos early (since removed but I got the numbers from Twitter which Frank Graves basically confirmed) so grain of salt and all that...
LPC 35.6
CPC 31.1
NDP 20.6
GRN 7.5
... didn't see anyone with the Bloc numbers but by process of elimination it's probably 5.2ish.
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Those Green numbers seem a lot higher than they've typically been during the campaign.
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10-13-2015, 01:36 PM
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#511
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2004
Location: YSJ (1979-2002) -> YYC (2002-2022) -> YVR (2022-present)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
Those Green numbers seem a lot higher than they've typically been during the campaign.
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EKOS's methodology seems to be favourable to the Green Party. Their last poll (same dates as above) showed the Greens at 7.4%, so really no change.
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10-13-2015, 01:41 PM
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#513
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarchHare
If true, that's a big shift from EKOS. Their last poll (Oct 8-10) had the CPC leading with 35.5 vs the Liberals at 33.1.
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In line with Nanos, which has been reporting a shift to the Liberals for the last week. Also jives with reports of turmoil in the Conservative campaign. I would never rule them out of the race though.
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10-13-2015, 02:02 PM
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#514
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I believe in the Jays.
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Confirmed...
http://ipolitics.ca/hcn/the-ekos-poll/
...Bloc is actually 3.2 (Ye ol' "other" is at 2.0).
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The Following User Says Thank You to Parallex For This Useful Post:
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10-13-2015, 02:06 PM
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#515
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: SW Ontario
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Looking at the demographic info its pretty much what you'd expect. Conservatives do well with old (65+) and less educated folks (lead high school, close with college and smoked by university grads).
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10-13-2015, 02:08 PM
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#516
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: SW Ontario
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
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Three seats for the Greens. Is that possible even if everything goes their way? Most I heard they had a shot at was 2 in BC... is there a 3rd they could take?
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10-13-2015, 02:10 PM
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#517
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: SW Ontario
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Ipsos: 37% lpc, 31% cpc, 24% ndp
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10-13-2015, 02:11 PM
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#518
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2004
Location: YSJ (1979-2002) -> YYC (2002-2022) -> YVR (2022-present)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parallex
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Liberals up 12 points in Ontario. Depending on riding distribution of the Liberal support, this could be a Conservative rout.
Poll also has the Liberals slightly ahead in Quebec, but it's a statistical tie with the NDP.
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10-13-2015, 02:16 PM
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#519
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I believe in the Jays.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarchHare
Poll also has the Liberals slightly ahead in Quebec, but it's a statistical tie with the NDP.
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Yeah... but the LPC vote in Quebec is really inefficient. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go up in the coming days... apparently his (Trudeau's) appearance on Tout La Monde En Parle was very well-received (For those who need an explanation it's apparently the most popular talk show on french language television in Quebec).
Last edited by Parallex; 10-13-2015 at 02:19 PM.
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10-13-2015, 02:17 PM
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#520
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Could Care Less
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Only positive thing shaping up from this election IMO is it looks like whatever happens it will be a minority government.
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