Federal Politics 2015 Thread

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Slava

Its funny though. The CPC supporters here seem less worried than the party itself. Earlier this week it was the UCCB where they couldn't wait to hand out money and get recognition for it. Now they're obviously concerned about losing seats in Calgary with the sudden $1.5B infusion here into the Greenline. They can't wait to spend money and buy us things, or just give us money back now! Try to close off a few loose ends with nagging issues like senate reform and they've done all they can I guess. Maybe next week they'll hire a bunch of scientists?

I think that the election call comes August 4th now.

Can't really claw back the ill-conceived income-splitting and taxable childcare cheques now though.

[Senator Clay Davis]

The big take away for me from those commercials is that it just shows how much better and slicker American attack ads are than Canadian ones. I mean did the CPC really sit around watching those commercials and think "Yeah those are good and will help us"? I have non-political friends who can't help but torch those ads. At the same time, does the CPC have any other card to play but attack ads? Obviously running on the economy is a non-starter.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by rubecube

This is hilarious. Those ads have been the laughing stock of the entire country since they first aired. They're absolutely cringeworthy. I didn't even think the most diehard, homerific Conservatives thought they were good. Those ads are the Oilers of political ads.

They are terrible. Of that there is no doubt. But I believe the message will be effective. Maybe you just didn't feel like reading my post much though, because I said exactly that. If you did, you'd see that my point was more that I'm fascinated by Harper as a political/campaigning strategist so I appreciate watching what is his first volley.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Care to tell me how many new jails the Conservatives have built?

Probably not many... instead the existing ones are just wildly overcrowded, dangerous and poorly run.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

They are terrible. Of that there is no doubt. But I believe the message will be effective. Maybe you just didn't feel like reading my post much though, because I said exactly that. If you did, you'd see that my point was more that I'm fascinated by Harper as a political/campaigning strategist so I appreciate watching what is his first volley.

As a conservative voter, as you mentioned in your post, do you find that the ads sour you on the party? They seem to be a direct insult to the intelligence of Canadians.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Slava

This all sounds great, but its not like Harper has had his hands tied. We all knew that a constitutional amendment would be required for reforms? How pray tell does he plan to abolish the senate without one though? So basically rather than reform he now favours abolition (which as far as I know was only the position of the NDP, which it has been for decades actually).

He did say that he would appoint elected senators, and I will give him credit for that extremely small step (although elected senators were appointed before Harper). Aside from this though, his impact on the senate appears to be hamstringing the senators there with not enough bodies to properly undertake their work, and appointing terrible choices so that everyone can complain about the legitimacy. Quite the bar to set.



Hilarious. I think those ads are pathetic and ridiculous. I love that they've branched out from the original terrible ad to one featuring the old guy who is the worst actor at the table. I think that once all the parties go negative (which is a foregone conclusion) there will be better ads than this one in terms of effectiveness.

Basically at this point Harper has to get softer Liberal votes in Ontario to stand a chance. At some point though he has to shift to attacking the NDP, and of course the opposition hasn't put their ads out yet because they just don't have the same war chest. I expect the NDP to come out swinging though. They did with Layton and probably ran the best negative ad last time around that was attacking Ignatieffs attendance record; it was damaging for sure and IMO easily the best negative ad of the campaign.

NDP's biggest problem may end up being Mulclair as he gets more attention. He needs to clean up his game and be better prepared for when he talks. Besides the corporate tax rate mistake that people jumped over in just the past few days he referred to a female NDP candidate as a male (her name is Alex and he assumed she was male - they weren't face to face when this happened) and mispronounced the name of the town he was visiting.

[WCan_Kid]

Originally Posted by MattyC

As a conservative voter, as you mentioned in your post, do you find that the ads sour you on the party? They seem to be a direct insult to the intelligence of Canadians.

As a former liberal voter who strayed to the cpc the last couple of elections, those ads are pretty much enough to send me back.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by MattyC

As a conservative voter, as you mentioned in your post, do you find that the ads sour you on the party? They seem to be a direct insult to the intelligence of Canadians.

Not really, no. I was just really fascinated by the use of the word "yet", so really only focused on the messaging. Didn't care about the acting. Heck, I just assume all political ads are full of bad acting and cinematography. I figure they're not trying to target my age group with these ones. I assume they're trying to target the 65+ crowd. I wonder what they'd think. I wonder how the ads are polling as well. They're no dummies at the CPC when it comes to this, so the fact that they've got a new round out surely means they're working as intended.

I will say though, I'll take that corny acting over the red-splash and black-splash Ignatief ads that looked like they came from an 80's horror movie. Those made me roll my eyes as far as "cinematography" goes (even though I did find the "he's not in it for you" message very effective at the time).

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Not really, no. I was just really fascinated by the use of the word "yet", so really only focused on the messaging. Didn't care about the acting. Heck, I just assume all political ads are full of bad acting and cinematography. I figure they're not trying to target my age group with these ones. I assume they're trying to target the 65+ crowd. I wonder what they'd think. I wonder how the ads are polling as well. They're no dummies at the CPC when it comes to this, so the fact that they've got a new round out surely means they're working as intended.

I will say though, I'll take that corny acting over the red-splash and black-splash Ignatief ads that looked like they came from an 80's horror movie. Those made me roll my eyes as far as "cinematography" goes (even though I did find the "he's not in it for you" message very effective at the time).

The "message" is trust the CPC because they pretty much can't balance budgets and have led Canada into a recession instead of the Liberals because...Trudeau wants to legalize pot and has pretty boy hair. It's a pretty terrible message, essentially a placating the base message, which is obviously bizarre seeing as CPC voters will never vote Liberal ever. It's reinforcing why CPCers won't vote Liberal, but they weren't going to anyway so why target them?

This message, beyond the base, will only attract uniformed voters, which I suppose is the CPC goal. But the horrible acting overshadows the message, and mostly the response has been mockery of the ad and ignoring whatever message they were going for. At best it's a middling ad but it's truly a pretty poor ad overall.

[Jacks]

The ads are stupid but they work because, like any effective attack ad, they reinforce opinions that people already have. The Libs have been steadily dropping in the polls for a few months now, you can't credit that all to the ads but they contribute.

[Frequitude]

Well Trudeau's approval is at a 12 month low (almost entirely at the NDPs gain). Not to suggest that correlation = causation, but I think the ads deserve some credit.

I wonder how long the Conservatives keep stepping on Trudeau's throat before switching to the NDP.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Not really, no. I was just really fascinated by the use of the word "yet", so really only focused on the messaging. Didn't care about the acting. Heck, I just assume all political ads are full of bad acting and cinematography. I figure they're not trying to target my age group with these ones. I assume they're trying to target the 65+ crowd. I wonder what they'd think. I wonder how the ads are polling as well. They're no dummies at the CPC when it comes to this, so the fact that they've got a new round out surely means they're working as intended.

I will say though, I'll take that corny acting over the red-splash and black-splash Ignatief ads that looked like they came from an 80's horror movie. Those made me roll my eyes as far as "cinematography" goes (even though I did find the "he's not in it for you" message very effective at the time).

I wasn't really referring to the production value as something that might deter you. I mean, as someone who seems to be an intelligent person, don't you find it at least a little souring that they're seeking to manipulate people this way? Not that you're falling for it or are the target of it necessarily. Just the complete lack of substance involved.

Like, as someone who would probably be voting liberal if it wasn't for the complete lack of substance in anything Trudeau says, his pandering and unwillingness to seemingly answer a direct question with a direct answer has soured me on them.

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Well Trudeau's approval is at a 12 month low (almost entirely at the NDPs gain). Not to suggest that correlation = causation, but I think the ads deserve some credit.

Trudeau has done that completely on his own. Do you really think that anyone who would vote Liberal sees those ads and forces them to change their mind? To me, those ads do nothing but just reinforce the Conservative base. I doubt they're gaining any new voters, just retaining old ones.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

I wonder how long the Conservatives keep stepping on Trudeau's throat before switching to the NDP.

Not sure they will, Harper seems content to annihilate the Libs and take his chances against the NDP. The Libs have also begun to attack the NDP so they may do that dirty work.

[Senator Clay Davis]

The Liberal drop has much more to do with supporting C-51. Horrible misjudgement by Trudeau and it likely is the one that cost them any chance of winning the election. The left support has collapsed to the NDP since they actually opposed it. The ads have had very little effect on their collapsing numbers. If the ads had any effect the CPC numbers would actually improve, but they've basically been the same for a while now. The CPC will pivot toward the NDP now that they've been leading for a decent amount of time now (about a month). The Liberals are almost a non-factor at this point.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

They are terrible. Of that there is no doubt. But I believe the message will be effective. Maybe you just didn't feel like reading my post much though, because I said exactly that. If you did, you'd see that my point was more that I'm fascinated by Harper as a political/campaigning strategist so I appreciate watching what is his first volley.

No, I read your post, but I disagree with your conclusion. I don't think the message has been effective at all. In fact, I think the ads have hurt the Conservative brand because of how bush-league they are.

Originally Posted by Frequitude

I wonder how the ads are polling as well.

From what I've read, terribly.

They're no dummies at the CPC when it comes to this, so the fact that they've got a new round out surely means they're working as intended.

This is what's called circular reasoning.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_reasoning

Originally Posted by Jacks

The ads are stupid but they work because, like any effective attack ad, they reinforce opinions that people already have. The Libs have been steadily dropping in the polls for a few months now, you can't credit that all to the ads but they contribute.

Except that none of the dropped points for the Liberals are going to the Conservatives. I highly doubt an NDP bump is what the Conservatives were looking for when they released the ads.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

The Liberal drop has much more to do with supporting C-51. Horrible misjudgement by Trudeau and it likely is the one that cost them any chance of winning the election. The left support has collapsed to the NDP since they actually opposed it. The ads have had very little effect on their collapsing numbers. If the ads had any effect the CPC numbers would actually improve, but they've basically been the same for a while now. The CPC will pivot toward the NDP now that they've been leading for a decent amount of time now (about a month). The Liberals are almost a non-factor at this point.

I'm one of those voters who intended to vote liberal until Trudeau supported C-51. As far as I'm concerned that should ruin his political career.

[northcrunk]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Well Trudeau's approval is at a 12 month low (almost entirely at the NDPs gain). Not to suggest that correlation = causation, but I think the ads deserve some credit.

I wonder how long the Conservatives keep stepping on Trudeau's throat before switching to the NDP.

Summer polls should be taken with a large grain of salt.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I don't disagree, and I think it's fair to say that whatever your view is of Harper ideogically, one has to acknowledge that he is a very shrewd politician who has shown impressive resiliency in his political career.

But if the implosion of the Liberals continues, he could be in trouble. Those votes are going pretty much straight to the NDP right now, and Harper is at his lowest levels for approval and voter intention in some time.

With that said, it absolutely is still very early.

I think people are underestimating how much of a factor approval ratings are. In my opinion, they were a big reason why the pollsters got the AB election right this time. For reference, Mulcair's lead in this department is massive and is perhaps the biggest indicator that the NDP's support could still grow with a strong showing in the debates.

Spoiler for size.

Spoiler!

[Jacks]

Found this buried half way down the page at the National Post, can't read much into one poll, we'll have to wait for a few and see if there is a trend. Huge sample size though.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/ca...doled-out-poll

Among decided voters, the Conservatives lead with 38 per cent support, followed by the NDP at 27 per cent and the Liberals at 25 per cent. The Green party is at six per cent (the Bloc Québécois is at four per cent). One in five voters (20 per cent) remains undecided. Factoring in undecided voters, 30 per cent said they would vote for the Conservatives if a federal election were held today, with the NDP at 22 per cent and Liberals at 20 per cent. Five per cent of respondents said they would support the Green party and three per cent the Bloc.
The Mainstreet telephone poll, using what’s known as interactive voice response (IVR), was conducted July 20-21 through a mixture of land lines and cellphones, and reached 5,147 respondents.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Not sure they will, Harper seems content to annihilate the Libs and take his chances against the NDP. The Libs have also begun to attack the NDP so they may do that dirty work.

Some of those Liberal to NDP crossovers are bound to flip back when the time actually comes to vote. If he crushes the Liberals too much, he risks unifying the centre and left of centre against him.

The best way for the Conservatives to win isn't to make people like them, but rather to keep the left nicely split.