[News] Flames offersheet O'Reilly UPDATE: Avs match

[Miniac]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I agree.

As soon as Backlund is back, Stajan becomes a good trade candidate

Stajan has been playing well and he also has a modified NTC. My guess is Stempniak.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by JurassicTunga12

Can the avs take the picks like tomorrow? or do we have to wait 7 days?

avs would be smart to hold on as long as possible. that 1st round pick is there's to be had, might as well try to ensure it's as high as possible (ie. leave the flames with their crappy centers for another week).

[squiggs96]

No matter what happens, this thread will be awesome to read in May and June.

[Henry Fool]

I'll admit that my initial reaction was disappointment because the draft this year is extremely good, but obviously one's reaction depends on how one sees O'Reilly's potential, and I don't have a read on that. 50 points by itself is not that impressive. That's Matt Stajan in Toronto, Brandon Dubinsky in New York. I'm a little worried that the Avs fan here says that O'Really doesn't have huge offensive upside, because as much as I appreciate good defensive players, I have been dreaming about a rebuild that will bring in dynamic players that can carry the team.

Also, I think the people who say that it makes the possibility of the Flames trading away their assets less likely are correct. And I absolutely think they should sell.

My final worry is that young player who is already holding out for a contract will not be with the Flames after the next 3 seasons when he gets his UFA status. If they rebuild, that would be about the time when the other young players will start to make a difference.

If he has enough offense to be a first line center, then the price is fine. But I wouldn't be so quick to make fun of the fans who aren't immediately convinced that it's a positive move.

[Bourque's Twin]

O'Reilly will help us solidify the 7th - 10th spot IMO.

Teams who will most likely finish worse than the Flames if we have ROR,
Edmonton, Colorado, Columbus, Buffalo, Washington, Florida, Winnipeg, New York Islanders.
That makes the 1st rounder 9th overall. If this is the case, the Flames have a 2.7% at 1st overall.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by JurassicTunga12

Can the avs take the picks like tomorrow? or do we have to wait 7 days?

If they don't match it will probably go to the minute of the 7th day.

[moon]

Not a huge fan because I think O'Reilly likely doesn't make this team a contender and we are looking at another couple of years of 6-10th place.

The contract looks awful and it isn't like the poison pill is going to be any good for the Flames either.

The one thing is it isn't a huge over pay in assets but overall seems like a deal for mediocrity.

It has okay upside and potential really bad downside so I guess I hope Colorado matches and I think they will.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

So if it turns out to be a top 5 pick, people will be pissed - naturally.

But what if the Flames make the playoffs - where would this move rank then?

Combined with the Hudler Wideman, Cervenka moves pretty savvy

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Yea. Guy that is holding out for more money will give the Flames a deal in his next contract and not see $6.8 as a starting point? Hahaha.

Good luck with that.

He'll have all the leverage. The Flames will have to offer him a QO because they gave up a first and third for 100 games of his play. If they don't he can walk and sign with whoever he wants.

If I were a Flames fan I'd be begging for the Avalanche to match this. $6.8 a season for O'Reilly is a terrible contract that will screw up their salary structure for years.

This is the sort of paralyzed over analysis that makes us think some retread bum looking for a contract at 29 is the answer. Centres are the most valuable commodities in the league. You have to pay a price to get one. And when the center is as good and as young as ROR, you have to take that chance.

And keep in mind, the Avalanche let joe Sakic get to an offer sheet position. They don't like paying young players. And given that the flames will be able to offer him the extra year, (assuming he puts up good numbers and is the player we expect him to be) do you really think he's going to gamble and not sign an 8-year 48m deal that will still see him hit free agency at 30?

We get him now, we get him long term.

[sun]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Watching Dreger on TV, he sure sounds like he thinks the Avs will take the picks.

I think they'll take the picks as well. Guess we'll find out in a week.

I imagine we'll find out sooner if they decide to match. Gotta get him into their lineup.

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by flamesaresmokin

What do you expect the flames to have offered him and also forced the avs to potentially let him walk then?

You have to overpay - at least Feaster did it on the short term and he can hopefully get him locked up on a better deal.

Better to overpay with cash than picks/prospects/players. People had all kinds of offers for O'Reilly involving Backlund, 1sts and an extra prospect here or there.
All we need is to give a 1st, potentially a good player, for another potentially good, but at least tested two way center.

[StrykerSteve]

Great move by the Flames.

He's as good as the players they are sure to draft in the 10-20 position, which is almost guaranteed to be where they draft this year. They're simply not bad enough to finish at the bottom of the league.

There's no way Colorado wants to pay this kid 6.5M next year. And if they match, you cna bet he would make them pay every penny of it.

But if he comes ot Calgary, you have to think he'd be grateful to the organization for getting him out of Colorado, and back onto the ice. So much so, that he may very well re-sign with them for a more appropriate number, likely around the 5M range.

Great move by the Flames.

[BintonB]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

If the Flames pay a 1st, a 3rd and 10 million for 100 games of ROR, without getting any assets in return, that might go down as one of the worst franchise crippling moves in history.

100 games while we're hovering around the 8-12th seed in the western conference

[Cali Panthers Fan]

ROR fills our most glaring need NOW. Not in 2 or 3 years...NOW.

Outside of the top 3 or 4 players, nothing is guaranteed from drafting. Even if you do get a good player, it often takes several years to get them to the point that ROR is at right now. The Flames aren't even guaranteed to draft top 5 (there are several teams in the East that are likely to finish below the Flames point wise).

Plus, you get a player like that to help this team get into the playoffs this year and it's an ok move... You get him to help this team into the playoffs for the next 5 or 6 years and it's a GREAT move.

Possible lineup (when Backlund returns)

Tanguay-ROR-Iginla
Glencross-Stajan-Cammalleri
Hudler-Backlund-Stempniak
Baertschi-Cervenka-Jackman
Comeau/Begin

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

If the Flames pay a 1st, a 3rd and 10 million for 100 games of ROR, without getting any assets in return, that might go down as one of the worst franchise crippling moves in history.

Except that he will be an RFA after those 100 games, so the Flames will either get him signed long-term or dealt for other assets. So your hypothetical is completely unrealistic.

[EldrickOnIce]

Read through most of the pages... but they appear faster than I can read them, so if tthis link has been posted, my bad.

Scott Cullen article from a week or two ago
Excerpt, plus link below

First, he played more than 2500 minutes through his first two seasons. Since 2000, there have been six other forwards to play that much as 18 and 19-year-olds and it's pretty good company: Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, Ilya Kovalchuk, Jordan Staal, Jeff Skinner and Sam Gagner.

Secondly, since 2000, there have been 25 forwards (including O'Reilly) to record at least 50 points in their 20-year-old NHL season.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=416077

[Ezio]

O'Reilly >>> top 10 pick, so I'm not so sure what the issue exactly is. This is excellent from Calgary's perspective.

[browna]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

It seems unlikely that Feaster fired a fax off to O'Reilly's agent this morning. This has probably been in the works for a while - especially if the Canucks were also making offers - and it just got signed today. The player likely assessed his options for a few days before deciding to sign.

If that's how it played out, a slap in the face by ROR to the Avs that he's switching dressing rooms while the team is in town.

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

People are actually concerned about a $6.5M qualifying offer in 2 years? Do people even know how RFAs work?

If the Flames qualify ROR in 2 years, yes, it will cost 6.5M per season.

But you DON'T HAVE TO QUALIFY AN RFA. You can simply re-sign players. The Flames will NOT be forced to pay ROR 6.5M.

Remember how it would have cost $2.5M to qualify Comeau this summer? How come that never happened?

I hope ROR plays to the quality of a $6.5M player in 2 years time, so I'd have no issue giving him that.

Huh? If you do not qualify an RFA they automatically become a UFA unless they are willing to sign for less than their qualifying offer. If a 24 year old O'Reilly is not qualified, why on god's green earth would he ever sign with the Flames for less than his QO when he could just walk out on July 1st and hit the UFA market? I would assume whatever lower offer the Flames made him before the UFA sweepstakes would either a) still be there in his worst case scenario or b) be topped by a better offer either by the Flames or some other team.

[SeeGeeWhy]

Langkow 2.0?