I am not saying they won't be as good or better than those players. But you are making some pretty large assumptions. One, that both of our guys will work out. And two, that the guys on the other list won't be more than secondary players.
Unless you have a crystal ball of some sort saying with relative certainty that Monahan and our first this season will end up as better players than Kane, etc is a leap.
It's not really much of a reach, the 2014 draft is more or less the same as the 2009, 2010, and 2011 drafts at the top end. Getting prospects that have similar/better profiles now usually means that they will develop into similar or better players when you're talking the top end of the draft. Usually forwards picked in the top 5 do not flame out (d-men do).
I'm just extrapolating based off prior players. Each of Bennett Draisaitl and Reinhart should become 60+ point guys based off similar guys in the past. Kane is a winger, so even though he's likely a 60 point guy, I'd take the center just because they are more valuable.
Any one guy can bust. However in the top 5 it's less possible
The worst of the bunch is Nino, but he too had 36 points this year in his first year. Bennett's best comparable is Duchene, Reinhart - RNH, and Draisaitl with Kopitar. In Duchene's draft year he had 79 points in 57 games, RNH 106 in 69 games. Kopitar played in Sweden so it's not easy to compare stats but he did have 49 in 30 games. Bennett had 91 pts in 57
games, a dozen points better in the same amount of games as his best comparable. Reinhart had 105 points in 60 games, one less point in 9 less games than RNH. Draisaitl had 105 points in 64 games.
All of them have the same credentials as those that came before.
__________________ Fireside Chat - The #1 Flames Fan Podcast - FiresideChat.ca
The Following User Says Thank You to Caged Great For This Useful Post:
Sorry man, but that is a lot of words and not a lot of sense. Kane was a fourth overall pick, young, and is already a really good NHL player. This notion of "Yay, our 5 overall with one season and our 4 overall that we haven't even picked yet are clearly going to be better than Kane" doesn't make sense and is clouded in homerism.
This doesn't look like a top loaded draft. Suggesting that we have a Duchene or Kopitar is wishful thinking.
I hope so. And it could happen. But it is by no means a certainty or even a likelihood. If we end up with the next E Kane that's a win.
Monahan had 22 goals this year, on one of the worst teams in the league offensively.
The number of times Evander Kane eclipsed that mark was only once, which was the only time he scored 20+.
It's not like E. Kane is one of the top 10 players in the league. He's not in the top 50 in my opinion.
I watched each of the comparable players when they were 18 multiple times (Duchene - RNH - Kopitar) and the only one of those guys that I would say is clearly better than their current counterpart is Kopitar and it's not by a gigantic amount. Bennett and Duchene are basically the same guy with the same level of in your face flashiness, although Bennett is taller by 2 inches. Reinhart is taller than RNH and he is also slight for his size (I think RNH was a slightly better passer at the same age).
This draft gets slagged a bit because it doesn't have MacKinnon at the top, but the players in this draft are really good. I could easily see any of the top 5 forwards (MDC) be 60+ point getters down the road, I doubt there's a 90 point guy amongst them though (Bennett would be likeliest candidate for that if any of them do)
__________________ Fireside Chat - The #1 Flames Fan Podcast - FiresideChat.ca
Last edited by Caged Great; 05-31-2014 at 11:50 PM.
I'm just trying to think outside the box with prospects the Flames are interested in. If Bennett is selected at 4, I hope all the hype about him will be worth it.
"Yay, our 5 overall with one season and our 4 overall that we haven't even picked yet are clearly going to be better than Kane"
I think the point you are missing is that in past drafts that were not considered to be overly strong, teams still managed to draft impact players in the top 4.
What is with all the negative pessimism? How can you possibly say that a fan expecting a top 4 pick to turn into a impact player is homerism? Past drafts show quite clearly that there is a good chance of a top 4 pick turning into a valuable player.
I nominate you as "new moon" partly because someone needs to take over for moon as an annoying poster, and partly because new moon is a twilight movie, and what's better than a derogative nickname based off of a sparkly vampire movie?
I think the point you are missing is that in past drafts that were not considered to be overly strong, teams still managed to draft impact players in the top 4.
What is with all the negative pessimism? How can you possibly say that a fan expecting a top 4 pick to turn into a impact player is homerism? Past drafts show quite clearly that there is a good chance of a top 4 pick turning into a valuable player.
I nominate you as "new moon" partly because someone needs to take over for moon as an annoying poster, and partly because new moon is a twilight movie, and what's better than a derogative nickname based off of a sparkly vampire movie?
I'm sorry, I just don't see the comparison between Reinhart and RNH. In fact it makes me feel queasy, but I'm sure it's just the Oiler talking.
I find more of a correlation between Reinhart and Niklas Backstrom or Joe Pavelski. Both don't play an 'in your face' style, but are able to change the face of a game.
__________________
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to saXon For This Useful Post:
I think the Oilers want a big centre (Draisaitl) and the big four is so close that they can pick for need and they can believe Draisaitl is the BPA and I wouldn't be surprised. Didn't they want Monahan last year? SO this is their chance to draft a big centre.
For the Flames I'd love Reinhart, Bennett, Draisaitl or Ekblad. Reinhart dominates often. Bennett is unlike Monahan and to have that 1-2 punch with Bennett and Monahan at centre it'd be amazing especially because they're both such complete players. Draisaitl is such a great passer and great Ice Q plus there's his size. Ekblad is the best player in his class. 6'4 right handed defenceman and looked great at the WJ and with Barrie. I'm excited no matter who we pick in that 4. Just don't want Ritchie or Nylander or Ehlers or Dal Colle. Wouldn't be devastated with Virtanen.
The Oilers, whom I believe are leaning to Draisaitl if he’s there when it’s their turn, are probably on the phone to Tallon, too. The Buffalo Sabres pick second and Calgary fourth, although Flames president Brian Burke has a history of big-splash draft deals (Chris Pronger, the Sedin twins), so expect Burke and his new GM, Brad Treliving, to be all over moving to the No. 1 spot.
Excluding the last three drafts (to early to tell on those) here are the previous 10 drafts and who was selected 4-7: Johansen, Niederreiter, Connolly, Kane, Schenn, Ekman-Larsson, Pietrangelo, Schenn, Filatov, Hickey, Alzner, Gagner, Backstrom, Kessell, Brassard , Pouilot, Price, Brule, Ladd, Wheeler, Montoya, Zherdev, Vanek, Michalek, Pitkanen, Whitney, Upshall, Weiss, Chistov, Koivu
There are two forwards on the list that are the caliber of Duchene, and they were selected in the same draft (Backstrom, Kessell). Kane is one of the better forwards on the list. I would argue he will be the third best by the time his career is up.
So suggesting that we are getting two players better than Kane, one that we haven't even drafted yet (in a weak draft), is premature. Highlight packages and scoring summaries aside.
That said, I really like Monahan. He could end up as a star. And I think we are going to get a good player at 4. I just think planning the parade is premature. If we get a Kane caliber player at 4 in a weak draft that is a win, not a failure.
What is the knock on Draisaitl that is keeping him from being picked #1?
Poor WJC performance, mediocre playoff performance, skating issues, and lack of 2 way play (i.e. more of 1 dimensional player relative to what you see from Reinhart and Bennett).
Probably not. But it is one of those rare drafts where the players are so close that there are 4 or even 6 players that could legitimately go first.
Its also one of the reasons I think people are overvaluing what it will cost to move to first. The last time a team moved to 1 (from 3) it cost a second round pick. And that team got a third back. Granted that was 2003. In 2004 it cost a second to move from 8 to 4. Given the paridy in the top end of this draft you have to wonder how much it will really cost to move up (or the value in doing so).
