Sam Bennett Value: Have the Flames held on TOO long? OR is he awesome?

[SuperMatt18]

Blake Wheeler was another late bloomer that really only took off after being traded by Boston.

Bennett: 240 Games - 42 Goals, 88 pts
Wheeler: 221 Games - 50 Goals, 110 pts

Wheeler's numbers look better but he was also 22 in his rookie year and 24 when traded, compared to Bennett, who hasn't even turned 22 yet.

Kyle Turris is another

Turris: 185 Games- 31 Goals, 75 points

Then didn't really bloom until his trade to Ottawa in his 23 year old season.

Josh Bailey is another that took a really long time to develop - kind of putting up 30ish point seasons until figuring it out at age 25. Brayden Schenn was already mentioned. Nino Niederreiter didn't really blossom until he was 22/23 years old.

Honestly there looking back from about 2006-2012 drafts there always seems to be one pick in the top 10 that takes a little more time to develop and then looks better either after a trade or if the team has some patience with him.

Bennett needs at least one more season, hopefully with better full time linemates, before he should be moved or written off as a bust.

[TheIronMaiden]

I see no scenario where it is wise to trade Bennett. Mostly because there is a lot of time for development. Also, because winger is already position of weakness. If the Flames are going to make a trade in the off season it will be a D-man.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Again, we could find a plethora of late bloomers. I'm more concerned that Bennett's play has regressed for the second straight year. He's putting up only 2/3 of his rookie season points, he's scored fewer goals each year.

There's a lot of sophomore jinx players out there as the no-longer-rookies take on more defensive responsibilities and assignments. But is there, and it's a genuine question, many examples of players that had such a drop off and then met early expectations?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Again, we could find a plethora of late bloomers. I'm more concerned that Bennett's play has regressed for the second straight year. He's putting up only 2/3 of his rookie season points, he's scored fewer goals each year.

There's a lot of sophomore jinx players out there as the no-longer-rookies take on more defensive responsibilities and assignments. But is there, and it's a genuine question, many examples of players that had such a drop off and then met early expectations?

Early expectations are irrelevant at this point. What matters is his value going forward.

We can trade him for X. Or we can hope that he develops into something more than X. And since X is probably not very much right now, I think we should hold on and see if he can develop into more than X.

[Oling_Roachinen]

I still consider what ever expectation you have Bennett today as early expectations.

So rewording my question, what are some examples of a player that regressed for three straight seasons from his rookie season and then "developed into something more?"

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I still consider what ever expectation you have Bennett today as early expectations.

So rewording my question, what are some examples of a player that regressed for three straight seasons from his rookie season and then "developed into something more?"

Has Bennett regressed for 3 straight seasons? His last 2 seasons look identical. This season the entire team seamed to regress around him, while he stayed exactly the same. Did he even "regress" all that much from his first season? It's not as though he's gone from being a ppg player to where he is now. Bennett has also yet to be given full time top 6 opportunities. The Flames are developing his all around game and purposely keeping him in the bottom 6.

The sophomore slump is very common, and it often extends into the 3rd year. There are many players over the years who've struggled in their teens and early twenties, with similar scoring patterns, only to find their game over the years:

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=369

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p...php?pid=143744

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by blankall

The Flames are developing his all around game and purposely keeping him in the bottom 6.

Yes, because he was not a top 6 forward and they wanted to try to win. This isn't a good sign for Bennett.

Originally Posted by blankall

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=369

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p...php?pid=143744

Both examples show a sophomore slump, followed by a bounce back season. In the case of MacKinnon he put up a pro-rated 60 point pace, not exactly comparable. Bennett dropped to 11 goals in his third season. Bertuzzi is a bit more fair, but still a 35 point pace in his third season is comparable to his first season and better than his second.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ The only answer to this debate is that time will tell.

Bennett is still 21, has been in a line with the blender applied, no sustained top 6 time and regressed under these circumstances with a very, very suspect coach, under whom Brouwer and Brodie have regressed and even Gio is down from 55 points to under 40.

We can keep recycling the same arguments on both sides, and I think the horse has been beaten beyond death.

Only time will tell.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I still consider what ever expectation you have Bennett today as early expectations.

So rewording my question, what are some examples of a player that regressed for three straight seasons from his rookie season and then "developed into something more?"

Well if players regressing in their 2nd season wasn't a common thing then we wouldn't have the phrase "sophomore slump".

Sure the 3rd season was a disappointment but it doesn't mean he can't still develop into a player. Who cares about comparables? Bennett is his own unique player on his own unique development path. He has the raw skills and talent to be a top two line player. It's certainly far from a sure thing that he'll put it all together. But its also far, far from certain that his ceiling is now a 3rd liner.

SuperMatt18 a few posts above you detailed several players that took more than 3 seasons to develop into their full potential if you really want comparables.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Bennett has more value to the Flames than he would to any other team right now, and his value to the Flames is probably pretty limited. Only 11 goals and 26 points is just brutal for a guy with that supposed pedigree. Couple it with a horrific -18 and you have guy with no where left to go but up. He has to rebound next season or he may have a pretty short career. I don't know who would give up much to take Bennett off the Flames' hands at this point. A lot of risk to assume with this player. He just isn't the sum of his skills, and his skills aren't near the level they were expected to be. The only bright side at this point, he's not Jake Virtanen.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

Bennett has more value to the Flames than he would to any other team right now, and his value to the Flames is probably pretty limited. Only 11 goals and 26 points is just brutal for a guy with that supposed pedigree. Couple it with a horrific -18 and you have guy with no where left to go but up. He has to rebound next season or he may have a pretty short career. I don't know who would give up much to take Bennett off the Flames' hands at this point. A lot of risk to assume with this player. He just isn't the sum of his skills, and his skills aren't near the level they were expected to be. The only bright side at this point, he's not Jake Virtanen.

So over the top.

Look around the league at players making less than $2M and putting up between 25-30 points that are 21 and have jam.

His career isn't in jeopardy, his upside is.

[Jiggy]

Sean Couturier is another good example. It took him 5 seasons until he broke out this year. Give Bennett some time.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Bingo

So over the top.

Look around the league at players making less than $2M and putting up between 25-30 points that are 21 and have jam.

His career isn't in jeopardy, his upside is.

His previously perceived upside is.
But i think you 100% on the right track.
He should become a 20/40 guy if nothing changes. He could easily develop into more.

I think more time is not needed to determine that he is really unlikely to become that #1 guy everyone wants him to be. That upside is gone.
But that's only my opinion, and I been wrong before.

[Poe969]

I agree that his chances of being a #1 guy have gone the way of the Whalers. I do think he can be a decent third line guy but if you can find a team that still thinks he has the pedigree to be that good and they're willing to pay for it, trade him.

I'm fine with trading Bennett, providing its for more of his "potential" than his value now. If the best return they could get on Bennett would be a second round pick or another young player that isn't doing what they thought he would, keep him. At this point he looks like he'll be a decent third line guy and there's nothing wrong with that. If a team thinks he can be a #1 and is willing to pay a lot for him, trade him. Young third line guys are valuable too, they just need to bank on him only being a third line guy and nothing more(if he's better it's a bonus)

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Jiggy

Sean Couturier is another good example. It took him 5 seasons until he broke out this year. Give Bennett some time.

But Couturier was a very good defensive centre before he broke out with scoring.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

So over the top.

Look around the league at players making less than $2M and putting up between 25-30 points that are 21 and have jam.

His career isn't in jeopardy, his upside is.

Not over the top at all. I wish our fans were consistent in their criticism of players and not be color blinded. Put Bennett on any other team in the league and tell me we would not be laughing at the defense of him and some of the crazy projections. Of course we would, and for good reason. Bennett hasn't shown much growth and is trending in a poor direction.

I also don't see the attraction of the player. Jam? Maybe, but Bennett spends as much time on his ass as his skates when he engages. When he does stay on his skates he's usually on his way to the penalty box for a bad decision. Seriously, this guy needs a big in 2018-19 or he's not going to be around long. If he didn't have the pedigree of a #4 pick, and was waiver eligible, he'd be fighting it out with Poirier and Klimchuk for an opportunity to prove himself. Fortunately that draft pedigree has afforded him more opportunity than he deserves, and he's done very little with it. I can be very patient with players, so long as they show growth. Bennett hasn't shown much growth, and that is very concerning. It's put up or shut up time for Mr. Bennett.

[EldrickOnIce]

You don't see the hyperbole of suggesting a 15g 30p guy is fighting it out with AHLers to prove himself?
Bennett is a long ways from what we thought/hoped he would be, but he's also a long ways from being an AHLer.

[SuperMatt18]

He's much more than an AHLer for sure. His production, scoring rates per 60, etc are all right in line with an average NHL 3rd liner.

The problem lies in the fact that this team really needed him to become a true top 6 forward and that just hasn't happened.

I do think we have seen some growth this year though, especially at even strength after his initial 15 game problems.

15/16: 23 ES Points, 1.41 Pts/60, 13.64% SH% - good rookie stats but mostly as a secondary player with Backlund & Frolik. 8 PP points.

16/17: 21 ES Points, 1.24 Pts/60, 8.04 SH% - Struggled with Brouwer on his line most of the year, didn't really fully get a grasp on the center ice position until later in the year. 4 PP points.

17/18: 23 ES Points, 1.41 Pts/60, 6.76 SH% - Got back to his numbers from his rookie season but did it on a line he mostly carried with Jankowski and Hathaway. 3 PP Points

So really the drop from season 1 to now has been a couple of things. Powerplay production has dropped as he has been less of a focal point on the PP, he has been asked to try to anchor his own 3rd line, and his shooting percentage this year was pretty abysmal.

Honestly growth has been shown - it's just been more slow and underlying growth vs. a clear big jump.

Give him at least one more season with a new coaching staff, a better RW for him and Jankowski, and more Power Play time and I think we see him get to around 20-25 goals and 40-50 points next season.

[TheIronMaiden]

Sam Bennett took a lot of pealties
He got 59 PIM total one of which was a fighting major.
This was less than he took the year before. He is 7th on the team for most penalty minutes. Also, 59 PIM makes him at 57th in the NHL for penalties. As a whole the team had poor discipline, IMO, this indicates a larger problem than individual players.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

Not over the top at all. I wish our fans were consistent in their criticism of players and not be color blinded. Put Bennett on any other team in the league and tell me we would not be laughing at the defense of him and some of the crazy projections. Of course we would, and for good reason. Bennett hasn't shown much growth and is trending in a poor direction.

I also don't see the attraction of the player. Jam? Maybe, but Bennett spends as much time on his ass as his skates when he engages. When he does stay on his skates he's usually on his way to the penalty box for a bad decision. Seriously, this guy needs a big in 2018-19 or he's not going to be around long. If he didn't have the pedigree of a #4 pick, and was waiver eligible, he'd be fighting it out with Poirier and Klimchuk for an opportunity to prove himself. Fortunately that draft pedigree has afforded him more opportunity than he deserves, and he's done very little with it. I can be very patient with players, so long as they show growth. Bennett hasn't shown much growth, and that is very concerning. It's put up or shut up time for Mr. Bennett.

Speak for yourself.

I don't run around calling players on other teams busts or "career in jeopardy" either.

JP in Edmonton had a sputtery year but he's a player that will develop into something.

Bennett led the Flames in face off win percentage, was second in takeaways and third on the team in takeaways over giveways.

Every number suggests a scrapiness.

His shooting percentage was off and that hurt his numbers but he still finished in the mid 200s for forward scoring, or a 7-8 forward in a league with 31 teams.

This isn't a player hoping to remain employed, but it is a 4th overall pick that likely won't hit his draft projection (35 goals 75 points)