The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[puffnstuff]

Originally Posted by photon

What he really needs is another new campaign manager (in case he's reading this).

fyp

[Senator Clay Davis]

This is an important number from Q's new national poll that shows Hillary is in really good shape, especially if this is how all Johnson voters break.

Mike MemoliVerified account
‏@mikememoli
New Q poll, 18-34 year olds only (change from early Sept)

Clinton 48 (+17)
Trump 27 (+1)
Johnson 11 (-18)
Stein 9 (-6)

https://twitter.com/mikememoli/statu...32817786716160

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

This is an important number from Q's new national poll that shows Hillary is in really good shape, especially if this is how all Johnson voters break.

Thank you Sarah Silverman.

[octothorp]

So Clinton's 10-day-long climb in the polls seems like it was just starting to peak and level-off, but even so there's been no good news for Trump anywhere in the polls; his brightest spot prior to the first debate was Ohio, and any lead there is now gone. And now, it's hard to imagine anything except for a plummet in the polls next week; the only question is how far he drops. His lowest in the aggregate (in mid August) was around 37%. If he starts dropping below that point, then we're really getting into landslide territory.

[Senator Clay Davis]

And we won't see the impact of the tapes or potential bad debate performance until the next round of polls. I think his best case for the next round is a push if he can do extremely well tonight. A loss and we're probably getting into potential double digit deficits.

[Tinordi]

As I called months ago. This election is all about the down ballot. A Trump implosion could see a democratic wave.

[Clarkey]

Surely the Republicans have an ace in the hole that they are holding onto?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Rasmussen went from Hillary +1 on Friday morning to Hillary +7 today. Suffice to say the tapes hurt very badly. Even if you wanna say he won the debate last night, probably brings it back down to +3/4, which is still a massive problem given how friendly Rasmussen is to GOP candidates. I think the suburban women's vote is all but gone for him, which makes an already difficult path even more impossible.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Rasmussen went from Hillary +1 on Friday morning to Hillary +7 today. Suffice to say the tapes hurt very badly. Even if you wanna say he won the debate last night, probably brings it back down to +3/4, which is still a massive problem given how friendly Rasmussen is to GOP candidates. I think the suburban women's vote is all but gone for him, which makes an already difficult path even more impossible.

Also worth noting that the Rasmussen survey was in the field from Wednesday through Sunday, so about half the respondents were polled before the sexual assault tape became a story.

[octothorp]

Yeah, that's devastating. Rasmussen has been the second most Trump-leaning regular poll this cycle after the LA Times one, so if it's moving like this, some polls might be moving to double digits. I think the possibility of some very red states flipping is on the table.

538 modified their flipping tool so that you can break down whites by gender (rather than education), and if you move the 'white women' vote further Democrat, it doesn't take much until you see places like Missouri, Georgia, Indiana, and Arizona flip.

[Senator Clay Davis]

New WSJ poll has Trump down 46-35 in the four way, with it taking place entirely Saturday/Sunday, but before the debate. Congressional preference also 49-42 for the Dems, highest since the government shutdown. I think we now see why everyone is bailing.

[Caged Great]

The Dems taking the house is now actually looking likely. Might even be a solid majority as well if things get worse.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

The Dems taking the house is now actually looking likely. Might even be a solid majority as well if things get worse.

And yet they'll still be too scared about re-election to do anything truly meaningful legislatively.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

The WSJ poll is interesting for sure. Clinton leads by 11 in the four-way, but by 14 in the 2-way. All of that is pre-debate, so we will have to see if Trump's (to me, inexplicably awful, but YMMV) performance in the debate last night somehow turns into a positive.

If that is the new baseline, this could well turn into a wave election. I would not be surprised to see more Republicans jumping ship over the course of this week.

We will have to see what the effect of the debate is over the coming week, but it's worth keeping in mind: voting has already started in several states, including Colorado, Florida and North Carolina.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

The Dems taking the house is now actually looking likely. Might even be a solid majority as well if things get worse.

Where is there data that house races have cratered that badly. The senate polling we have in Florida show a willingness to split the ticket. Also with the republicans focusing on down ballot races they will GOTV split ticket voters whereas in a competitive presidential race they won't.

The senate is in play though 538 still has that as a coin flip.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

The Dems taking the house is now actually looking likely. Might even be a solid majority as well if things get worse.

Is there even enough seats up for reelection to flip the house?

[Plett25]

The entire house is elected every 2 years

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

It would be a very significant wave election if the Democrats got control of the house. The Republicans currently have 246 seats, and only about 45 or so are considered remotely competitive. Democrats would need to pick up 30 of those 45 to get to 218, which would be the barest majority.

More likely they pick up a significant number of seats but fall short of a majority.

[photon]

Maybe they win, ungerrymander things and Republicans never hold the house again forever. Trump Train!

I think I need lunch.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by photon

Maybe they win, ungerrymander things and Republicans never hold the house again forever. Trump Train!

I think I need lunch.

Winning at the federal level doesn't help them ungerrymander the House. Electoral redistricting is controlled by state governments.