Federal Politics 2015 Thread

[Jacks]

I've heard Harper's eulogy before.
- Harper will never be PM
- Harper will never get re-elected
- Harper will never get a majority
- Harper will never get another majority

The election hasn't even started yet.

[Jacks]

Will be interesting to see if the Alberta NDP holds off on a budget until after the election. The PC's were looking at a 5B deficit, I'm guessing it will be a lot higher than that. If that budget comes out during the campaign it might take a little wind out of the federal NDP sails since they are basing their fiscal record on their provincial cousins.

[robbie111]

Originally Posted by Jacks

I've heard Harper's eulogy before.
- Harper will never be PM
- Harper will never get re-elected
- Harper will never get a majority
- Harper will never get another majority

The election hasn't even started yet.

Oh I don't expect him to go quietly into the night. If he loses dibs he tries to become the next secretary general of the UN.

[robbie111]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Will be interesting to see if the Alberta NDP holds off on a budget until after the election. The PC's were looking at a 5B deficit, I'm guessing it will be a lot higher than that. If that budget comes out during the campaign it might take a little wind out of the federal NDP sails since they are basing their fiscal record on their provincial cousins.

I'd be stunned if it comes out before the federal election unless they could show a balancing of the books, but certainly not with a massive deficit.

[stampsx2]

Originally Posted by robbie111

I'd be stunned if it comes out before the federal election unless they could show a balancing of the books, but certainly not with a massive deficit.

There won't be any balancing of the books with the ndp. They're smart to hold off on annoucing a budget till after a federal election.

Just take a look at how much they've already been spending, including an additional 6 billion to healthcare to a province that has the highest per capita spending on healthcare after Newfoundland.

Five billion by the conservatives will be nothing by the time the ndp is finished their four years.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Jacks

I've heard Harper's eulogy before.
- Harper will never be PM
- Harper will never get re-elected
- Harper will never get a majority
- Harper will never get another majority

The election hasn't even started yet.

I don't disagree, and I think it's fair to say that whatever your view is of Harper ideogically, one has to acknowledge that he is a very shrewd politician who has shown impressive resiliency in his political career.

But if the implosion of the Liberals continues, he could be in trouble. Those votes are going pretty much straight to the NDP right now, and Harper is at his lowest levels for approval and voter intention in some time.

With that said, it absolutely is still very early.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by robbie111

I think conservative strategists thought something like this

...

2. Build more jails than we know what to do with.

Care to tell me how many new jails the Conservatives have built?

[Resolute 14]

Anyway, I have no idea what to make of this:

Harper to call for abolition of the Senate

Probably partially to try and take the wind out of the NDP's sails and mitigate attempts by Mulcair to use the Senate scandals as a wedge against the Conservatives and Liberals, and partially along the lines of "if I can't fix it, get rid of it".

It does put Harper and the Conservatives in an interesting spot though. He's already ignoring the Senate - there are currently 20 vacant seats - and I find it difficult to believe that he wouldn't fill those before calling the election so as to maintain a Senate majority in the event he loses said election.

[Slava]

^ Considering he's done absolutely nothing to reform the senate over his decade in power, its purely a political ploy. For a guy who was so hell bent on doing something he hasn't even had a meeting with the Premiers on the issue, let alone suggesting anything meaningful.

Its comedic. Justin Trudeau has done more as the third party leader to reform the senate than Harper.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I mean can Harper remain PM after this election? For sure, but the CPC is utterly useless without a majority and I think that ship has certainly sailed. But a CPC minority government would be a real problem since it would basically be in no man's land, looking to find a long term Harper replacement while simply waiting for the other parties to force an election. Nothing would get done at a pretty critical time for Canada. The Liberals really dicked this up by not going for a better leader instead of the famous leader. Christ they should have brought Paul Martin back, I think even CPC supporters would be down for him.

[Bownesian]

@Slava - I don't know how you can say that.

The conservatives tried a number of soft reform measures:
- telling the provinces they would appoint elected senators. When the provinces didn't elect any, they were forced to appoint some to keep government running because without a constitutional amendment, we need a Senate.
- tried several reform bills that stalled in the minority parliaments and in the Senate (in part because they were unconstitutional)
- on that front, got a reference from the Supreme Court to determine how reform could happen, and ultimately learned that there's pretty much nothing we can do without a significant constitutional amendment
- Now, after trying more in this decade than the decade that preceded it, they have fallen back to their long-held position that "if it can't be reformed, it should be abolished"

And Trudeau has done nothing substantive. He kicked them out of caucus but they continue to be Liberals. His proposal for some kind of nomination committee is laughable because it would boil down to one of two results:
- The committee would be gerrymandered to suggest people the government agrees with politically
- Or, even worse, the senate could become more than a rubber-stamp/technical body where "eminent Canadians" that nobody voted for would start exercising real power with no recourse from voters to punish bad behavior

[Frequitude]

I'm really enjoying the "just not ready" campaign ads by The Conservatives. Not because they're cinematic genius (they're not, they're corny bad), and not because I'm a Conservative voter (I am), but because I've always been fascinated by how good of a politician and campaigner Harper is (note, I didn't say leader).

He's got a good pulse on the best issue to go at someone on and the best way to message it. Once again, he's knocked it out of the park with this messaging.

The most impactful word of the whole campaign has been "yet", as in "he's just not ready, at least not yet". That word alone projects a softer view of Harper and would also seem to soften the resolve of some pro-Trudeau types in Ontario that voted Conservative for the first time last election. I can see them thinking "hmmm...Harper agrees with me that he could be a good Prime Minister. That's good. But maybe he's right that Justin's a touch young and inexperienced. Maybe I'll vote Harper one more time before going back home to the Liberals."

It's going to be a fascinating campaign to watch play out. Harper vs the son of one of his most hated historical figures, with the nice guy leading the upsurging NDP party right there neck and neck.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Bownesian

@Slava - I don't know how you can say that.

The conservatives tried a number of soft reform measures:
- telling the provinces they would appoint elected senators. When the provinces didn't elect any, they were forced to appoint some to keep government running because without a constitutional amendment, we need a Senate.
- tried several reform bills that stalled in the minority parliaments and in the Senate (in part because they were unconstitutional)
- on that front, got a reference from the Supreme Court to determine how reform could happen, and ultimately learned that there's pretty much nothing we can do without a significant constitutional amendment
- Now, after trying more in this decade than the decade that preceded it, they have fallen back to their long-held position that "if it can't be reformed, it should be abolished"

And Trudeau has done nothing substantive. He kicked them out of caucus but they continue to be Liberals. His proposal for some kind of nomination committee is laughable because it would boil down to one of two results:
- The committee would be gerrymandered to suggest people the government agrees with politically
- Or, even worse, the senate could become more than a rubber-stamp/technical body where "eminent Canadians" that nobody voted for would start exercising real power with no recourse from voters to punish bad behavior

This all sounds great, but its not like Harper has had his hands tied. We all knew that a constitutional amendment would be required for reforms? How pray tell does he plan to abolish the senate without one though? So basically rather than reform he now favours abolition (which as far as I know was only the position of the NDP, which it has been for decades actually).

He did say that he would appoint elected senators, and I will give him credit for that extremely small step (although elected senators were appointed before Harper). Aside from this though, his impact on the senate appears to be hamstringing the senators there with not enough bodies to properly undertake their work, and appointing terrible choices so that everyone can complain about the legitimacy. Quite the bar to set.

Originally Posted by Frequitude

I'm really enjoying the "just not ready" campaign ads by The Conservatives. Not because they're cinematic genius (they're not, they're corny bad), and not because I'm a Conservative voter (I am), but because I've always been fascinated by how good of a politician and campaigner Harper is (note, I didn't say leader).

He's got a good pulse on the best issue to go at someone on and the best way to message it. Once again, he's knocked it out of the park with this messaging.

The most impactful word of the whole campaign has been "yet", as in "he's just not ready, at least not yet". That word alone projects a softer view of Harper and would also seem to soften the resolve of some pro-Trudeau types in Ontario that voted Conservative for the first time last election. I can see them thinking "hmmm...Harper agrees with me that he could be a good Prime Minister. That's good. But maybe he's right that Justin's a touch young and inexperienced. Maybe I'll vote Harper one more time before going back home to the Liberals."

It's going to be a fascinating campaign to watch play out. Harper vs the son of one of his most hated historical figures, with the nice guy leading the upsurging NDP party right there neck and neck.

Hilarious. I think those ads are pathetic and ridiculous. I love that they've branched out from the original terrible ad to one featuring the old guy who is the worst actor at the table. I think that once all the parties go negative (which is a foregone conclusion) there will be better ads than this one in terms of effectiveness.

Basically at this point Harper has to get softer Liberal votes in Ontario to stand a chance. At some point though he has to shift to attacking the NDP, and of course the opposition hasn't put their ads out yet because they just don't have the same war chest. I expect the NDP to come out swinging though. They did with Layton and probably ran the best negative ad last time around that was attacking Ignatieffs attendance record; it was damaging for sure and IMO easily the best negative ad of the campaign.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Anyway, I have no idea what to make of this:

Harper to call for abolition of the Senate

Probably partially to try and take the wind out of the NDP's sails and mitigate attempts by Mulcair to use the Senate scandals as a wedge against the Conservatives and Liberals, and partially along the lines of "if I can't fix it, get rid of it".

It does put Harper and the Conservatives in an interesting spot though. He's already ignoring the Senate - there are currently 20 vacant seats - and I find it difficult to believe that he wouldn't fill those before calling the election so as to maintain a Senate majority in the event he loses said election.

I think that's a misstep and just setting himself up to get absolutely hammered by the opposition. All Mulcair has to do is note that the Conservatives have failed on their original promise to reform the Senate and are now stealing ideas from the NDP once their own corruption blew up in their face.

Originally Posted by Frequitude

I'm really enjoying the "just not ready" campaign ads by The Conservatives. Not because they're cinematic genius (they're not, they're corny bad), and not because I'm a Conservative voter (I am), but because I've always been fascinated by how good of a politician and campaigner Harper is (note, I didn't say leader).

He's got a good pulse on the best issue to go at someone on and the best way to message it. Once again, he's knocked it out of the park with this messaging.

The most impactful word of the whole campaign has been "yet", as in "he's just not ready, at least not yet". That word alone projects a softer view of Harper and would also seem to soften the resolve of some pro-Trudeau types in Ontario that voted Conservative for the first time last election. I can see them thinking "hmmm...Harper agrees with me that he could be a good Prime Minister. That's good. But maybe he's right that Justin's a touch young and inexperienced. Maybe I'll vote Harper one more time before going back home to the Liberals."

This is hilarious. Those ads have been the laughing stock of the entire country since they first aired. They're absolutely cringeworthy. I didn't even think the most diehard, homerific Conservatives thought they were good. Those ads are the Oilers of political ads.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I think that's a misstep and just setting himself up to get absolutely hammered by the opposition. All Mulcair has to do is note that the Conservatives have failed on their original promise to reform the Senate and are now stealing ideas from the NDP once their own corruption blew up in their face.

Certainly, but Harper responds by arguing he tried to reform but was blocked. It is a weak defence at this point, but all the Conservatives have to work with. I don't think this proposal will ever count as a "win" for the Conservatives. I see it as a defensive move - Mulcair is going to hammer away on Senate expenses regardless, but by reversing course, the Conservatives take away his "vote for me and I will abolish it" stance. Still charging uphill on the matter though.

[Slava]

Its funny though. The CPC supporters here seem less worried than the party itself. Earlier this week it was the UCCB where they couldn't wait to hand out money and get recognition for it. Now they're obviously concerned about losing seats in Calgary with the sudden $1.5B infusion here into the Greenline. They can't wait to spend money and buy us things, or just give us money back now! Try to close off a few loose ends with nagging issues like senate reform and they've done all they can I guess. Maybe next week they'll hire a bunch of scientists?

I think that the election call comes August 4th now.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Certainly, but Harper responds by arguing he tried to reform but was blocked. It is a weak defence at this point, but all the Conservatives have to work with. I don't think this proposal will ever count as a "win" for the Conservatives. I see it as a defensive move - Mulcair is going to hammer away on Senate expenses regardless, but by reversing course, the Conservatives take away his "vote for me and I will abolish it" stance. Still charging uphill on the matter though.

Yeah, I suppose it's sort of the best of a bunch of terrible options. In sort of the same vein, I stumbled across this blog yesterday (https://www.tbray.org/ongoing/When/2...rudeau-on-C-51). It's not really anything profound, and I disagree with some of the commentary, but the guy actually sat down with Trudeau after the C-51 fiasco, and this sort of confirmed my original suspicion:

The meeting · Trudeau’s opening statement was direct; not smarmy or evasive or pandering. It was along the lines of “We thought there were some good things in the bill and we really didn’t want to give Stephen Harper the chance to fight the election on the security issue, claiming to be the only party tough on terrorism, because that’s where he wants to be.”

Whether it was Trudeau his advisers, strategists, etc., someone in the Liberal party completely dropped the ball and misread the pulse of the Canadian public.

Some other interesting tidbits:

After Trudeau was done, the rest of us politely but firmly gave him a hard time. People from a fintech vendor explained that their competitive advantage against US vendors due to the wide (and correct) perception that the US intelligence community will subvert any organization’s privacy at a whim, but that Canada is more grown-up, could evaporate. A social-media company executive groused about surveillance chill on the great Internet conversation. A civil-liberties lawyer suggested that policy should be evidence-based, and that there was no evidence that the policies in advanced in C-51 would actually enhance Canadians’ safety.

Take-away on Trudeau · He’s an impressive guy: good communicator, attentive listener, more direct and less formulaic than other politicians I’ve met.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by rubecube

This is hilarious. Those ads have been the laughing stock of the entire country since they first aired. They're absolutely cringeworthy. I didn't even think the most diehard, homerific Conservatives thought they were good. Those ads are the Oilers of political ads.

But did you know that he's younger than some other candidates AND that he has smoked marijuana!? He will, of course, cause the collapse of western civilization as we know it.

[KelVarnsen]

He has nice hair though.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by MattyC

But did you know that he's younger than some other candidates AND that he has smoked marijuana!? He will, of course, cause the collapse of western civilization as we know it.

"And I suppose eating kittens and legalizing heroin is next?"

- old guy at the table in the CPC commercials, probably.