April 23 2012: Alberta Provincial Election

[Slava]

I think that Kent Hehr wins and its really not as close as people make it out to be there. The PC candidate and Wildrose are going to split that vote, and anyone who just wants anyone but WRA is going to vote for Kent there. That riding is strongly Liberal and in the civic campaign it was pro-Nenshi by a large margin (I think he got 64% of the vote there).

Add to that the fact that Kent is well respected amongst his peers, works incredibly hard for his riding and is everywhere for everything in that riding and he is hard to beat. Could it happen? Anything is possible. I really doubt it though. If the Liberals are polling at 9% in Calgary the Liberals problem is that 5% of that 9 is voting for Kent. For a little corroborated evidence look no further than the PC candidate; the PCs have some impressive candidates in Calgary but against Kent Hehr they had to parachute a young guy in from NE Calgary to run. It sometimes feels like there are no Liberals in Calgary, but trust me. The ones that are here know the drill and he'll hold that riding.

I don't know the details for Swann, but I would guess its similar.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Slava

I think that Kent Hehr wins and its really not as close as people make it out to be there. The PC candidate and Wildrose are going to split that vote, and anyone who just wants anyone but WRA is going to vote for Kent there. That riding is strongly Liberal and in the civic campaign it was pro-Nenshi by a large margin (I think he got 64% of the vote there).

Add to that the fact that Kent is well respected amongst his peers, works incredibly hard for his riding and is everywhere for everything in that riding and he is hard to beat. Could it happen? Anything is possible. I really doubt it though. If the Liberals are polling at 9% in Calgary the Liberals problem is that 5% of that 9 is voting for Kent. For a little corroborated evidence look no further than the PC candidate; the PCs have some impressive candidates in Calgary but against Kent Hehr they had to parachute a young guy in from NE Calgary to run. It sometimes feels like there are no Liberals in Calgary, but trust me. The ones that are here know the drill and he'll hold that riding.

I don't know the details for Swann, but I would guess its similar.

Do you think thats indicative. I love Nenshi but am leaning towards WR. Two different levels of government.

[Knalus]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Do you think thats indicative. I love Nenshi but am leaning towards WR. Two different levels of government.

I agree. Nenshi is popular because he is competent, not because he is left leaning. Remember, the Sun promoted Nenshi. They never would have done that if his primary attraction is his "progressive" stance.

Many people compare Nenshi with Redford, based on the old-fashioned left/right spectrum. But I think this will finally show what the real lessons of Nenshi's election are. Calgarians are becoming more interested in competency and intelligence, not partisan ideology. And my impression of Redford is not one of competency.

[AnybodyButPC]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

It certainly is close:

Off the top of my head:

• 10% Salary Roll back for all public employees 1.5 billion
• Elimination of 25% of management positions within bureaucracy .5 billion
• Freeze on bonuses .1 billion
• Cut operational spending 10% 4 billion
• elimination/privatization of several useless provincial departments (HRC, Carbon Capture fund, venture capital fund, health superboard, etc.) appx. 3.5 billion
• Hiring freeze
• Cut cabinet and comittee's .1 billion
• invite private partnership/competition into infrastructure development 1 billion (could easily be more)

Most of this is taken right from the 2010 budget documents. It certainly is in the realm of reality to cut 25% of the budget. It would take some pain and asking public employees to contribute back to the taxpayer, but it could be done.

I know this was posted a while back, but it takes a while to catch up sometimes, (seniors thing, ya know ) but I thought this was an interesting read http://taxpayer.com/sites/default/fi...ski-Legacy.pdf seems there could be a bit of room for some saving there.

[sevenarms]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

At the current rate things are going, I might be inclined to say that we may see this election as the end of the Alberta Liberal party in Alberta politics. I know it's a weird thing to say, but I can really see them decimated down to a single seat or maybe even zero. It's turning out to be a horrible series of events for them and I don't see them with enough momentum to maintain what they've traditionally retains as the main opposition in the province.

I agree, between the PCs moving more to the center and the NDP becoming more prominent the Liberals have lost their identity. A good first step would be to lose the "Liberal" name.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Knalus

I agree. Nenshi is popular because he is competent, not because he is left leaning. Remember, the Sun promoted Nenshi. They never would have done that if his primary attraction is his "progressive" stance.

Many people compare Nenshi with Redford, based on the old-fashioned left/right spectrum. But I think this will finally show what the real lessons of Nenshi's election are. Calgarians are becoming more interested in competency and intelligence, not partisan ideology. And my impression of Redford is not one of competency.

A vertical political spectrum if you will - marked by competency, leadership ability, engagement, transparency, innovation etc.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Knalus

I agree. Nenshi is popular because he is competent, not because he is left leaning. Remember, the Sun promoted Nenshi. They never would have done that if his primary attraction is his "progressive" stance.

Many people compare Nenshi with Redford, based on the old-fashioned left/right spectrum. But I think this will finally show what the real lessons of Nenshi's election are. Calgarians are becoming more interested in competency and intelligence, not partisan ideology. And my impression of Redford is not one of competency.

Ya, its true the Nenshi supporters aren't always Liberal supporters. I think it just adds to the narrative in that riding though.

I am interested in the comment you make here about competency and intelligence. Does that apply? When I look at the candidates in each riding its really not close; the PC candidates are largely the most qualified and arguably the more competent candidates. Its really a good slate, and I can admit that. Redford herself has a pretty impressive resume, but even a guy like Raj Sherman (who still works a day a week as an ER doctor) are really qualified people. Danielle Smith in comparison has done nothing of consequence. I would almost say that the Alberta Party leader has more of a qualified background, really.

It's just somewhat surprising to me how many good candidates are out there who could lose to virtual nobodies with no track record, and no clear plan of what they intend to do. It sure doesn't look like a hunt for competency and intelligence from my vantage point.

[sevenarms]

Originally Posted by Slava

It's just somewhat surprising to me how many good candidates are out there who could lose to virtual nobodies with no track record, and no clear plan of what they intend to do. It sure doesn't look like a hunt for competency and intelligence from my vantage point.

That's the problem with the party system. Vote the party not the person. Take a look at the last Federal election, a real bunch of winners (all parties, mainly NDP though) won seats.

[etherealgirl]

Originally Posted by Knalus

I agree. Nenshi is popular because he is competent, not because he is left leaning. Remember, the Sun promoted Nenshi. They never would have done that if his primary attraction is his "progressive" stance.

Many people compare Nenshi with Redford, based on the old-fashioned left/right spectrum. But I think this will finally show what the real lessons of Nenshi's election are. Calgarians are becoming more interested in competency and intelligence, not partisan ideology. And my impression of Redford is not one of competency.

Possibly, but then Rob Anders was re-elected in the last federal election.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Slava

I think that Kent Hehr wins and its really not as close as people make it out to be there. The PC candidate and Wildrose are going to split that vote, and anyone who just wants anyone but WRA is going to vote for Kent there. That riding is strongly Liberal and in the civic campaign it was pro-Nenshi by a large margin (I think he got 64% of the vote there).

Add to that the fact that Kent is well respected amongst his peers, works incredibly hard for his riding and is everywhere for everything in that riding and he is hard to beat. Could it happen? Anything is possible. I really doubt it though. If the Liberals are polling at 9% in Calgary the Liberals problem is that 5% of that 9 is voting for Kent. For a little corroborated evidence look no further than the PC candidate; the PCs have some impressive candidates in Calgary but against Kent Hehr they had to parachute a young guy in from NE Calgary to run. It sometimes feels like there are no Liberals in Calgary, but trust me. The ones that are here know the drill and he'll hold that riding.

I don't know the details for Swann, but I would guess its similar.

I would not be surprised at all if liberal MLA Darshan Kang gets elected again in Calgary-McCall. I really have no idea who's going to win, it really could be any of the three parties.

I'm not sure if the party is the thing many constituents vote for in Calgary -McCall. I saw one projection that had Kang as the only Liberal MLA elected. I don't think that's totally out of the question.


I'm again unsure of where my vote will go.

[kn]

Originally Posted by sevenarms

A good first step would be to lose the "Liberal" name.

As petty as it is, I think it's a necessary step. The Federal Liberals have killed the brand here.

[Slava]

^Really? Wow. I just assumed he was out of it up there. I can see some Liberals having enough votes to come up the middle, unless the Wildrose looks like they could get power. That and if the Liberals have strong enough candidates in those ridings. I hear they have a field of 80 though.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by kn

As petty as it is, I think it's a necessary step. The Federal Liberals have killed the brand here.

They may have killed the brand in every province after the last election.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Slava

I am interested in the comment you make here about competency and intelligence. Does that apply? When I look at the candidates in each riding its really not close; the PC candidates are largely the most qualified and arguably the more competent candidates.

I wonder if you held that view last election?
I wonder if you would say that if the WRA didn't pose a threat to win?

If only people with "track records" won then we would have a majority PC government for another 4 decades. Apparently being a doctor makes you qualified to run a corporation worth tens of billions of dollars. I'm curious, what other fields make you qualified to be an MLA besides lawyer, teacher and career politician?

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Slava

^Really? Wow. I just assumed he was out of it up there. I can see some Liberals having enough votes to come up the middle, unless the Wildrose looks like they could get power. That and if the Liberals have strong enough candidates in those ridings. I hear they have a field of 80 though.

Kang could definitely come up the middle. Last election, it was within 200 votes, without a real wildrose threat.

In my driving around the city, in most other ridings, I've seen mostly Wildrose signs. However, around where I live, there are lots of large Liberal and PC signs up, and only a couple of Wildrose signs. Just south, in Calgary-Cross, I've seen dozens of Wildrose-Happy Mann signs, and I don't remember seeing a single sign from another party.


I suspect that the Sikh community strongly votes for Sikh candidates, no matter what the party affiliation.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

It certainly is close:

Off the top of my head:

• 10% Salary Roll back for all public employees 1.5 billion
• Elimination of 25% of management positions within bureaucracy .5 billion
• Freeze on bonuses .1 billion
• Cut operational spending 10% 4 billion
• elimination/privatization of several useless provincial departments (HRC, Carbon Capture fund, venture capital fund, health superboard, etc.) appx. 3.5 billion
• Hiring freeze
• Cut cabinet and comittee's .1 billion
• invite private partnership/competition into infrastructure development 1 billion (could easily be more)

Most of this is taken right from the 2010 budget documents. It certainly is in the realm of reality to cut 25% of the budget. It would take some pain and asking public employees to contribute back to the taxpayer, but it could be done.

How exactly do you do a bunch of those things.

1. Cut back everyone's salary when they have signed agreements with the government guaranteeing their wages. Even then if someone tried to cut back wages look for there to be a massive reduction in quality of services offered to the public leading to (spoilers) increased cost in the future. You can't just cheap out on everything forever. Saving money is good, wisely spending money is better.

2. Eliminate 25% of management positions? How does someone plan on doing that, that isn't trimming the fat, that is slaughtering the herd.

3. How do you define something as worthless? Honestly, just because you don't agree with something doesn't make it worthless... especially with something like a Human Rights Commission which I would imagine costs next to nothing to operate.

4. Cut the cabinet and committees and save 100 million dollars? So a, you are suggesting essentially no government and b, where the heck did that number come from.

I would suggest that you put money into where you see long term dividends, primary health care and education being the big two. You have a healthy, educated population and it will cost a heck of a lot less in the long run.

Spending can save money as not every dollar spent is a dollar lost. If you put money into preventing someone from getting sick that person doesn't need a hospital bed in the future and at the same time is able to be a productive member of society and pay taxes as well as spend money putting more money back into the economy.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Jacks

I wonder if you held that view last election?
I wonder if you would say that if the WRA didn't pose a threat to win?

If only people with "track records" won then we would have a majority PC government for another 4 decades. Apparently being a doctor makes you qualified to run a corporation worth tens of billions of dollars. I'm curious, what other fields make you qualified to be an MLA besides lawyer, teacher and career politician?

Well everyone has their own way to decide, and such is democracy. I am a big enough man to admit that if the Liberals won in 2008 the quality of the MLAs wouldn't have been as good as what we got with the PCs (putting policy aside obviously).

I'll use my riding as an example, and lets pretend its a job interview. You have to pick someone to make important decisions and here are the candidates:

- a lawyer at a small firm
- a partner at a big law firm
- a university student
- a guy who has lived in Calgary for 16 years
- a candidate who I don't know about, but exists

So, without considering policy tell me which one you would vote for and why. You might know which riding I live in, which will render this entirely useless, but what the heck. Its worth a shot.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Jacks

I wonder if you held that view last election?
I wonder if you would say that if the WRA didn't pose a threat to win?

I think that view point was very true for the last election (in Calgary it would seam like). I for one wasn't happy with the direction of the Stelmach regime and I think many Calgarians weren't either. That's why you saw candidates like Dave Taylor, Kent Hehr and David Swann all win in "Conservative" Calgary. I think the stronger candidate won those seats.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta...election,_2008

[c.t.ner]

For those curious, we have an update on the Party Leaders At a Glance Infographic for this week.

http://albertatweets.ca/party-leader...st-march-28th/

Kudos to the WildRose for a well done push on the Facebook front, that is a massive surge for Danielle Smith.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

I think that view point was very true for the last election (in Calgary it would seam like). I for one wasn't happy with the direction of the Stelmach regime and I think many Calgarians weren't either. That's why you saw candidates like Dave Taylor, Kent Hehr and David Swann all win in "Conservative" Calgary. I think the stronger candidate won those seats.[/URL]

David Swann first won his seat in 2004, btw (when Ralph Klein was still PC leader), so it's not at all accurate to say that he was only elected because Calgarians were voting in protest against Farmer Ed. Plus, Swann won with over 53% of the vote (the next closest candidate had 30% support).

Anything can happen this election, but I find it hard to imagine a scenario where two popular incumbents like Swann and Hehr lose their seats, especially now that there will be more vote-splitting by their opponents (in the last election, only the Liberals and PCs had more than 10% support in both of those ridings; that will obviously change this time).