2022: The year the world returns to war?

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Pointman

I hear you. Russia acts unpredictably and recklessly and some could argue Putin has lost his marbles. The response from the west doesn't appear to be firm enough to stop it. Since I want peace asap, I myself would like some overwhelming power to put Putin back into his place or better yet out of his place. For people in neighboring countries it may well look as if Russia does as it please and West is too weak to contain it.

Still this is not the case. Out of 14 former USSR republics (Russia itself being 15th), Putin has only attacked Georgia and Ukraine. He could have easily annex Kyrgyzstan and the west would do nothing for them, but he never did. He only went after two countries where coups toppled his allies and replaced them with some western-oriented guys. Georgia (Rose revolution) and Ukraine (Maidan nezalezhnosti). Why? Because he needs to respond. He needs to retailate to western-backed protesters toppling his allies. He fears the same destiny at home and went very hard after inner opposition when it did look as if USA is trying to set up a kind of rose revolution in Russia. Annexation of Crimea happened immediately after the Ukrainian coup. He didn't annex Crimea just for the hell of it. He felt he had to respond. He needed to show the West, that he's strong and decisive.

The lands he has claimed so far are almost worthless, Crimea naval base notwithstanding. Abhazia is a poor rural place. South Osetia is just an area in the mountains. Donbass is so devastated, it would require billions to be restored. Once it does, it will become just another area in Russia, like Orel, Kursk or Voronezh. We have no shortage of land. Even Crimea, that used to be prime summer holidays place, dare I say USSR's Florida, is not any popular without Iron Curtain. Russians much prefer Turkey and Egypt. Even Sochi is much better than Crimea.

None of Putin's land acquisitions worth it. They are actually net drain on economy, even if there was no sanctions. Those lands were never the goal.

The world never paid attention, but Russians DID freak out at every NATO expansion. The illegal bombings of Kosovo enraged Russians and there were public protests. The point of preventing NATO from expanding to the East was always the topic. It just never made headlines like now.

Russia was attacked by westerners several times. Hitler, Napoleon, Swedes, Germans in WW1, Poland came at us. Beside Mongols and to some extent Turks, the only threat we have ever faced, was from the west.

Much like Cuban missile crises happened because USA had put some missiles around USSR and we felt we had to do something, the same is happening now. Putin feels cornered and desperate yet determined to do something. He's not having fun toying with his troops around. This by no means justifies what he does though.

I'm not going to say the US wasn't involved in this ousters of governments in those countries, but when you live next to the US and how they can barely accomplish anything politically because they are so divided right now, the idea that they can manage to over-throw these governments seems far-fetched.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Putin feels cornered and desperate yet determined to do something.

I don't buy it.

Putin is definitely not stupid or ignorant or incapable of reading the geopolitical power balance. If anything he's probably one of the world's best experts on the question of power politics. He knows he's safe from external threats (or he knows something none of us knows).

All his talk about western threat is rhetorics directed at his own people. After all he needs to explain what's going on to his soldiers and taxpayers somehow, and his many supporters abroad.

But this isn't a show of desperation, he's just taking advantage of his current strength, and the only reason he needs is that he can.

IF there is a threat he's worried about, it's his declining popularity within Russia or some other internal threat. Winning wars tends to be a sure way to make a leader popular.

(I'm sure Putin knows as well as anyone that people like him generally don't get to retire peacefully, and declining popularity quite often literally means death to dictators, as it leaves room for someone else to gather a power base.)

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I'm not going to say the US wasn't involved in this ousters of governments in those countries, but when you live next to the US and how they can barely accomplish anything politically because they are so divided right now, the idea that they can manage to over-throw these governments seems far-fetched.

Its cute that you think the CIA/some military branches goals coincide with political accomplishments. These departments/institutions are silo'd from politics with some semblance of oversight committee intervention but typically after the fact.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Putin says he hasn't sent Russian regular troops to Donbass. He says, he only recognized independence, but didn't mean to send troops right away.

That's interesting because the west widely reports Russian regular troops being in Ukraine for hours

"We were invited. Vodka was served!!"

[Pointman]

Putin states his goals.

www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6360179

Putin said the crisis could be resolved if Kyiv recognizes Russia's sovereignty over Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, renounces its bid to join NATO and partially demilitarizes

[Flacker]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Putin states his goals. Much like I've said earlier, it's recognition of Crimea and some guarantees about not having NATO missiles 5 minutes away from Moscow

www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6360179

Putin said the crisis could be resolved if Kyiv recognizes Russia's sovereignty over Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, renounces its bid to join NATO and partially demilitarizes

Oh, just give us everything we want, and this will be resolved right away!! What a diplomat.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Putin states his goals.

www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6360179

Putin said the crisis could be resolved if Kyiv recognizes Russia's sovereignty over Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, renounces its bid to join NATO and partially demilitarizes

What a colossal bunch of bull####.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Putin states his goals.

www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6360179

Putin said the crisis could be resolved if Kyiv recognizes Russia's sovereignty over Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, renounces its bid to join NATO and partially demilitarizes

Lol! Thats fantastic.

That right there is how to do Diplomacy!

"Oh you dont like those terms? Okay then, how about just become a part of Russia?"

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

What a colossal bunch of bull####.

So basically:

• Allow us to officially take the land we stole from you. Let us have it once and for all.

• Do not join the organization that is designed to protect you from us (even though you are now experiencing first hand as to WHY you should join)

• And stop finding ways to defend yourself from US, on agression we ourselves started."

Those might be his official ways to "resolve" this crises. And yet each point is complete utter bull####, based on acts fabricated by Putin himself.

How do you even begin to negotiate with nonsense like that? Christ.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Its cute that you think the CIA/some military branches goals coincide with political accomplishments. These departments/institutions are silo'd from politics with some semblance of oversight committee intervention but typically after the fact.

What exactly has the US accomplished in any vain in the past 20 years that makes you think they would be successful at this?

Unless you think they are inept in every public facing decision in order to hide their amazing skills they keep hidden?

I'm not saying they aren't trying, but the idea they could pull something like this off is far-fetched.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

So basically:

• Allow us to officially take the land we stole from you. Let us have it once and for all.

• Do not join the organization that is designed to protect you from us (even though you are now experiencing first hand as to WHY you should join)

• And stop finding ways to defend yourself from US, on agression we ourselves started."

Those might be his official ways to "resolve" this crises. And yet each point is complete utter bull####, based on acts fabricated by Putin himself.

How do you even begin to negotiate with nonsense like that? Christ.

You aren't supposed to negotiate with nonsense like that.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by peter12

You aren't supposed to negotiate with nonsense like that.

Exactly. This is Putinese for "fata you".

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Exactly. This is Putinese for "fata you".

Is Putinese similar to this? (0:50)

Spoiler!

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by peter12

You aren't supposed to negotiate with nonsense like that.

You negotiate with a rifle.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

You negotiate with a rifle.

Tougher to do when the other side has a bunch of BM-30 and TOS-1 launchers aimed at you in a foxhole with your rifle.

That said, I'm overall in agreement that it's time NATO grew a pair and actually stood up to this thug.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by peter12

Tougher to do when the other side has a bunch of BM-30 and TOS-1 launchers aimed at you in a foxhole with your rifle.

That said, I'm overall in agreement that it's time NATO grew a pair and actually stood up to this thug.

To what end?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

To what end?

That's probably a better question to ask Putin at this point, right?

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by peter12

Tougher to do when the other side has a bunch of BM-30 and TOS-1 launchers aimed at you in a foxhole with your rifle.

That said, I'm overall in agreement that it's time NATO grew a pair and actually stood up to this thug.

We should deescalate not escalate.

Do you think Putin is rational enough not to unleash nuclear holocaust on the West? Our only recourse would be to unleash nuclear holocaust on them. And then nobody wins.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

We should deescalate not escalate.

Do you think Putin is rational enough not to unleash nuclear holocaust on the West? Our only recourse would be to unleash nuclear holocaust on them. And then nobody wins.

How do you stop it then. If this is allowed, it will only embolden them more. The Crimea was a testing ground for these actions.

It is only the young 22 year old me that wants diplomacy through a rifle, but there needs to be consequences for actions.

The only option might be for the West to try and cripple the Russian economy, but I am worried they will have enough other customers to take away the pain.

Like my man Gordon said "I hope the Russians love their children too".

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

How do you stop it then. If this is allowed, it will only embolden them more. The Crimea was a testing ground for these actions.

It is only the young 22 year old me that wants diplomacy through a rifle, but there needs to be consequences for actions.

The only option might be for the West to try and cripple the Russian economy, but I am worried they will have enough other customers to take away the pain.

Like my man Gordon said "I hope the Russians love their children too".

I think most of the oligarchs that support Putin have their money outside of Russia. If the global community targets these individuals with heavy sanctions and "encourages" them to end their support for Putin, I think the Russians themselves will find a way to stop him.

Lots of 2nd story windows at the Kremlin I am told.

Rifle diplomacy will lead to untold human suffering and should be the absolute last resort.