Craig's List 2014 Prospects

[sureLoss]

ISS released their May top 30

http://www.isshockey.com/

[FlameZilla]

It's interesting that Bennett & Dal Colle have the same birthday! They're both the youngest of the top 6 prospects:

Bennett: June 20, 1996
Dal Colle: June 20, 1996
Nylander: May 1, 1996
Ekblad: February 7, 1996
Reinhart: November 6, 1995
Draisaitl: October 27, 1995

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by circle

So my questions to everybody:
- How significant is PPP% when looking at a prospect?
- Is it a concern to see Bennett's PPP% low or is it something that makes him look better as he can score better in even strength?
- Are these numbers normal compared to other top draft picks from previous years?
- Is there an upper boundary to PPP% that is a cause for concern (a la Schremp)?

Anyways, thanks for reading my post and I hope it is the first of many to come!

Good post.

I do think PP points is a bit of red flag.

I don't know how it ended up, but I know Brandon Perlini late in season had about 50% of his points on the PP (and on a team with a ton of PP).

I think its something to consider - particularly if the guy is on a team who gets a ton of powerplays. It can really elevate their point totals if they are racking up points on the power play because they have chances other guys don't.

FWIW - Kingston and Oshawa were pretty close in terms of PP attempts although Bennett likely missed some of those due to all of his penalties.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

ISS released their May top 30

http://www.isshockey.com/

I can't recall a recent draft where the top 10 had so much variability between different sources.

Interesting to see Fabbri at 8th for the ISS rankings. At a casual glance, his stats look pretty good, but most source don't rank him that high.

[PeteMoss]

Fabbri is very talented and had a good playoff. He'll be a good pick.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Toronto could use a pick like Fabbri, especially because he's a center.

Dal Colle at #3 is interesting.

[sureLoss]

Corey Pronman:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/story...X&refresh=true

To put it in perspective, compared to last year's draft class (without our current hindsight), I'd have ranked Aaron Ekblad behind MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin, with a tough debate about how close he was to Jones and Valeri Nichushkin. He'd have ranked ahead of Aleksander Barkov, however. I'd then have Sam Bennett and the rest of the top tier after Barkov.

Although the No. 1 and 2 prospects are below-average compared to the players who have fallen in that range historically, the middle of the top end -- the No. 5 to 10 range -- is somewhat above-average. This draft may not be one that produces superstars, but there are some very useful players here.

There is a slight drop-off after Ekblad, and the next tier runs three prospects deep, with another tier from No. 5 to 9. There's a good argument to fit any of the next seven prospects after the No. 9 slot into that group, but the rest of the draft is a gradual decline from there.

Pronman's top 10:
1. Ekblad
2. Bennett
3. Nylander
4. Reinhart
5. Ehlers
6. Fiala
7. Draisaitl
8. Dal Colle
9. Kapanen
10. Fleury

[devo22]

Pronman's affection for Fiala is starting to become a bit ridiculous.

[Arsenal14]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I can't recall a recent draft where the top 10 had so much variability between different sources.

Interesting to see Fabbri at 8th for the ISS rankings. At a casual glance, his stats look pretty good, but most source don't rank him that high.

Fabbri was nowhere near the top 10 on the ISS April rankings. He's really taken off in the couple months. You are right though, nobody else that I've seen has him above 15, most are putting him late first round.

[indes]

Any list that has Reinhart at 4 is good to me

[sureLoss]

Travis Sanheim has skyrocketed on most lists. In the top 30 for a lot of the recently updated ones. I was hoping he would be available for Calgary's 2nd round pick, but now starting to look more like a late 1st.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

If Monahan were in this draft would he go #1?

Yeah I think he'd be a contender for #1. It would probably be Ekblad/Monahan ranked atop the rankings IMO.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

It would be hard to justify.

Draisaitl put up 105 points in his draft year, Monahan put up 78 points both on bad teams. They are about the same size and have/had the same supposed weaknesses - not being the greatest skaters. Both are late birthdays.

Obviously stats are the whole story.

I think Drasaitl gets a bit of a bad rep from these international tournaments but he's playing on terrible teams that are completely overmatched.

Monahan played on an abysmal team. No linemates of note. One man show. PA made the playoffs so no, not both bad teams. Monahan's team was substantially worse.

[Vulcan]

I have hopes Reinhart will fall to us. I think he's the best forward prospect as IIRC, he's been ranked as the top prospect in his age group since he first joined the juniors. There's something to be said for holding onto that ranking until now, when some shiny new toys come around.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

I have hopes Reinhart will fall to us. I think he's the best forward prospect as IIRC, he's been ranked as the top prospect in his age group since he first joined the juniors. There's something to be said for holding onto that ranking until now, when some shiny new toys come around.

But there is also something to be said about trajectory. The ability to learn and show improvement is a good quality to have as we should be more concerned with where these players will be in 5 years and not at the moment.

I know for players consistently near the top, it is hard to show drastic improvement sometimes as they are already where they needed to be, but I don't think players that climb should be downplayed.

Just like if the situation was reversed. Say a player was near the top for a long time and slid through out the last year, I don't think the downward trajectory should be overlooked when trying to predict where they will be in 5 years.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Monahan played on an abysmal team. No linemates of note. One man show. PA made the playoffs so no, not both bad teams. Monahan's team was substantially worse.

They made the playoffs after a play in game.

But you are right... Monahan's team was terrible, Draisatl's team was just bad.

But they were both one man shows. Draisaitl was 32 points ahead of the 2nd leading scorer on his team, Monahan was 27 points ahead.

[sureLoss]

Did a chart of the "consensus rankings" for ISS, McKeen's, Red Line, Pronman, FC, and the CSS combined provided by THW.




The green triangle represents the average ranking the prospect got. The vertical line shows the range that the prospect has been ranked. The lowest point of the vertical line shows the highest ranking the prospect got, while the highest point shows the lowest ranking the prospect got.

The chart gives a visual representation of how widely varied the different scouting services have each prospect ranked.

It also hints at potential tiers of players, such as a top 3 of Ekblad, Bennett and Reinhart followed by Draisaitl, Dal Colle and Nylander

[albertGQ]

Thanks SureLoss. If you included Craig Button, looks like Virtanen would have the biggest range

[albertGQ]

Also, From that chart, it looks like tier one consists of only 3 players

[sureLoss]

I didn't include Craig Button because he hasn't officially updated his list since January, while the other scouting services have much more recent updates.