The Energy Transition and technologies

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Azure

Energy prices are high because of a lack of supply.



The lack of supply, especially for fossil fuels has to do with government policy trying to be 'green.' Shutting down gas plants, nuclear plants, not allowing for new developments for oil & gas extraction, no new pipelines, prohibiting LNG development, etc, etc.



Now the world is rapidly increasing the amount of coal it burns. China has given their coal miners carte blanche to extract as much coal as possible.



The US is begging other countries for their oil. Everyone thinks solar & wind are great, but they aren't even making a decent in the world's overall need for energy. EVs are amazing, but do they even make up 1% of car sales?



Where do you think carbon emissions are going from here on out?



But hey, at least we're green.

Prices are due to supply and demand. Supply is low because prices were low and energy companies were going bankrupt and investment in exploration went down. Demand is way up after a pandemic.

As for renewables and EVs

1) renewables share is increasing rapidly (though not fast enough for climate change). In fact, fossil fuel electricity generation it's growing albeit slower than renewables. There's no way to spin green policy as causing the energy crunch. This is classic commodity based supply/demand disruption. Does everyone forget negative priced oil last year???

2) EV sales were 1.6% in 2019. For 2020 they'll be at 7.6% of global light automobile sales. Next year it's expected they climb even faster. They're coming. Faster than anyone seems ready for.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Prices are due to supply and demand. Supply is low because prices were low and energy companies were going bankrupt and investment in exploration went down. Demand is way up after a pandemic.

As for renewables and EVs

1) renewables share is increasing rapidly (though not fast enough for climate change). In fact, fossil fuel electricity generation it's growing albeit slower than renewables. There's no way to spin green policy as causing the energy crunch. This is classic commodity based supply/demand disruption. Does everyone forget negative priced oil last year???

2) EV sales were 1.6% in 2019. For 2020 they'll be at 7.6% of global light automobile sales. Next year it's expected they climb even faster. They're coming. Faster than anyone seems ready for.

That really depends on where you are. Energy shortages in Europe, particularity Germany, are absolutely caused by green policies. Which should serve as a warning for us of what happens when you try to replace baseload generation with green alternatives and no storage.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That really depends on where you are. Energy shortages in Europe, particularity Germany, are absolutely caused by green policies. Which should serve as a warning for us of what happens when you try to replace baseload generation with green alternatives and no storage.

Ok, that's local/regional problems.

The energy crunch is a worldwide problem and I'm addressing that. Literally every country is grappling with it and it can be exacerbated by various different local regional issues, but it's not the root cause.


The root cause is supplies are low due to geopolitical friction (OPEC+), and economic (years of bankruptcy and wind down due to unprofitable prices then negative price shock). That's then followed by insane demand pressies with post COVID rebound stronger than anyone expected. You could make an argument that the switch to gas power generation has worsened some of it, but even that is tangential

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That really depends on where you are. Energy shortages in Europe, particularity Germany, are absolutely caused by green policies. Which should serve as a warning for us of what happens when you try to replace baseload generation with green alternatives and no storage.

Isn't the Germany issue related to the fact natural gas prices are rising?

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Prices are due to supply and demand. Supply is low because prices were low and energy companies were going bankrupt and investment in exploration went down. Demand is way up after a pandemic.

As for renewables and EVs

1) renewables share is increasing rapidly (though not fast enough for climate change). In fact, fossil fuel electricity generation it's growing albeit slower than renewables. There's no way to spin green policy as causing the energy crunch. This is classic commodity based supply/demand disruption. Does everyone forget negative priced oil last year???

2) EV sales were 1.6% in 2019. For 2020 they'll be at 7.6% of global light automobile sales. Next year it's expected they climb even faster. They're coming. Faster than anyone seems ready for.

Not sure how you don't see that shuttering oil development in the US & Canada is now leading to the US asking other countries (who produce less green oil) for more oil which will lead to more emissions, while all being done in the name of being green. The same could be said for shutting down nuclear plants in California, Europe and many other regions. Germany basically blew up their nuclear energy production to appease the environmentalists. Now their coal production is off the charts.

Shutting down fossil fuel development in the name of 'going green' has not led to less fossil fuel usage. It has led to more.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Isn't the Germany issue related to the fact natural gas prices are rising?

In August 2011, the 13th amendment of the Nuclear Power Act came into effect, which underlined the political will to phase out nuclear power in Germany. As a result, eight units were closed down immediately: Biblis A and B, Brunsbüttel, Isar 1, Krümmel, Neckarwestheim 1, Phillipsburg 1 and Unterweser.

By the end of this year, Brokdorf, Grohnde and Gundremmingen C are scheduled to shut down, with the country's final three units - Emsland, Isar 2 and Neckarwestheim 2 - set to close at the end of 2022.

"This loss of low-carbon electricity generation with an installed capacity of 8 GW, which currently accounts for 12% of Germany's annual electricity production, will inevitably lead to around 60 million tonnes of additional carbon emissions per year because more fossil fuels have to be burned in order to provide the necessary replacement service," the letter states. "This will increase national emissions by 5% compared to the reference year 1990."

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/A...s-in-operation

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Ok, that's local/regional problems.

The energy crunch is a worldwide problem and I'm addressing that. Literally every country is grappling with it and it can be exacerbated by various different local regional issues, but it's not the root cause.


The root cause is supplies are low due to geopolitical friction (OPEC+), and economic (years of bankruptcy and wind down due to unprofitable prices then negative price shock). That's then followed by insane demand pressies with post COVID rebound stronger than anyone expected. You could make an argument that the switch to gas power generation has worsened some of it, but even that is tangential

Demand has also risen to pre-pandemic levels. It wasn't long ago people were muttering about peak oil demand having passed us by, that demand would never return, and we'd be on a downward trend.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Isn't the Germany issue related to the fact natural gas prices are rising?

It's that, and a not particularity windy period:

Energy prices in Europe have hit records due to a shortage of natural gas and much lower than expected wind power output, the Wall Street Journal has reported. Some countries have even been forced to restart coal power plants to ensure enough electricity reaches consumers.


The UK is suffering the most from the drop in wind power output, caused by mild weather. The country, which prides itself on its wind capacity and whose Prime Minister last year said wind farms could power every home by 2030, produced less than 1 GW of wind power on several days. This compares with a generation capacity of 24 GW, according to ICIS senior energy economist Stefan Konstantinov.


Gas prices, meanwhile, are running at record highs because of the asynchrony in demand—spurred by the reopening of EU economies after lockdowns—and supply, which has been constrained because the EU is not the only region where economies are reopening after lockdowns.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/eu...143000634.html

[chedder]

Originally Posted by Azure

Not sure how you don't see that shuttering oil development in the US & Canada is now leading to the US asking other countries (who produce less green oil) for more oil which will lead to more emissions, while all being done in the name of being green. The same could be said for shutting down nuclear plants in California, Europe and many other regions. Germany basically blew up their nuclear energy production to appease the environmentalists. Now their coal production is off the charts.



Shutting down fossil fuel development in the name of 'going green' has not led to less fossil fuel usage. It has led to more.

Shuttering U.S. oil and gas development has zero to due with green policies. It has 100% been due to economic policies, namely banks wouldn't keep lending to uneconomic drilling programs. You could maybe argue that green policies have curtailed Canadian production but even that's a stretch. Economics and a hostile investment environment are more to blame.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Azure

Not sure how you don't see that shuttering oil development in the US & Canada is now leading to the US asking other countries (who produce less green oil) for more oil which will lead to more emissions, while all being done in the name of being green. The same could be said for shutting down nuclear plants in California, Europe and many other regions. Germany basically blew up their nuclear energy production to appease the environmentalists. Now their coal production is off the charts.



Shutting down fossil fuel development in the name of 'going green' has not led to less fossil fuel usage. It has led to more.

Again, the shuttering of nuclear plants has zero affect on the price of electricity in Zimbabwe, Chile, Mexico or anywhere else. Those are things that can exacerbate it, sure. We aren't in an energy crunch because of it.

How many O&G jobs were lost globally since 2014? Then after the negative price shock in 2020? The prior poor economics hindering investment plus insane sudden demand are why were are here. We can talk about marginal differences from various policies on regional markets, but it's all largely superfluous in the global picture. Canada accounts 5% of global oil. Our policies are not affecting global prices. Full stop.

[PeteMoss]

Nuclear is also contributing the exact same amount of power this year as it did last year in Germany.

Coal use is up year over year due to wind power issues. But a big concern is gas prices going up, causing bills to increase.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1437297641918980096

This strikes me as a complicated scenario that the all the various sides are trying to frame to their advantage. They are phasing out Nuclear - that is the cause. Wind is unreliable - that is the cause.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

ACanada accounts 5% of global oil. Our policies are not affecting global prices. Full stop.

Canada is the marginal producer - our policies have a huge impact on the price of oil.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Again, the shuttering of nuclear plants has zero affect on the price of electricity in Zimbabwe, Chile, Mexico or anywhere else. Those are things that can exacerbate it, sure. We aren't in an energy crunch because of it.

France's price of electricity is half of Germany

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael...h=5a1399021bd9

France despite wanting to reduce the nuclear share %, has seen the light and accelerated the building of nuclear reactors to fight climate change and escalating gas prices as it sees nuclear as the only viable solution to climate change.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...rs-2021-11-09/

Meanwhile Germany who is the ideological environmentalist darling with half of its power coming from renewables while chosing to get rid of nuclear,
is bringing in coal and gas at a huge premium because it had a 'low wind' fall. Turns out relying so much on unreliable energy sources is a bad idea.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ut-2021-09-28/

Oops

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielco...h=6715877b2af3

And when wind is good? Germany can't use it due to lack of proper grid infrastructure and is forced to export it, and is paying other countries to close down their renewables to prevent a total system collapse. It makes for great headlines about how great Germany is doing with renewables if it exports, but the reality is much more somber.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...-across-europe

The stark contrast between France and Germany's approach to weening off fossil fuels and resulting energy situation should be clear which is the right viable solution. Nuclear is the solution.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Firebot

France's price of electricity is half of Germany



https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael...h=5a1399021bd9



France despite wanting to reduce the nuclear share %, has seen the light and accelerated the building of nuclear reactors to fight climate change and escalating gas prices as it sees nuclear as the only viable solution to climate change.



https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...rs-2021-11-09/



Meanwhile Germany who is the ideological environmentalist darling with half of its power coming from renewables while chosing to get rid of nuclear,

is bringing in coal and gas at a huge premium because it had a 'low wind' fall. Turns out relying so much on unreliable energy sources is a bad idea.



https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ut-2021-09-28/



Oops



https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielco...h=6715877b2af3



And when wind is good? Germany can't use it due to lack of proper grid infrastructure and is forced to export it, and is paying other countries to close down their renewables to prevent a total system collapse. It makes for great headlines about how great Germany is doing with renewables if it exports, but the reality is much more somber.



https://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...-across-europe

Again, for the third time. How does Germany shuttering nuclear plants affect the electricity price in Zimbabwe?


It's almost as if you didn't read the post.

This is a global supply/demand imbalance caused by global commodity issues. Yes Germany closing nuclear plants was unwise. But that's not why the whole freaking world's energy prices are high. I don't know how else to explain this

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Again, for the third time. How does Germany shuttering nuclear plants affect the electricity price in Zimbabwe?

You stated anywhere else and conveniently omitted Germany so I brought it up. Why are you bringing up Zimbabwe in the first place when you have a much clearer example with Germany. Talk about a cherry picked attempt

But since you did, you would see that you were wrong.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/20...%20electricity.

For most of last year, Musoro’s biggest problem stemmed from a lack of available power. Hit by a combination of man-made and natural challenges, the state power company simply could not generate enough electricity to keep up with demand, forcing it to institute blackouts for up to 17 hours a day.

Zimbabwe has been struggling with power shortages since April 2019, when water levels in the Zambezi River dropped sharply due to drought, crippling the country’s biggest hydroelectricity supplier, Kariba South Power Station.

It's as if unreliable energy sources are unreliable. Turns out that climate change directly impacts the means to combat it with unreliable renewables dependent on climate.

Nuclear would solve these issues, and Zimbabwe has also seen the light, signing a deal with Russia to build a new nuclear power station

https://www.newzimbabwe.com/zimbabwe...wer-shortages/

Some countries are seeing the writing on the wall, other countries like Canada and Germany are sticking to ideologies versus common sense.

[opendoor]

LOL, yeah the US totally reduced its oil production for environmental reasons. Who knew Trump was such an environmentalist:

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Again, for the third time. How does Germany shuttering nuclear plants affect the electricity price in Zimbabwe?


It's almost as if you didn't read the post.

This is a global supply/demand imbalance caused by global commodity issues. Yes Germany closing nuclear plants was unwise. But that's not why the whole freaking world's energy prices are high. I don't know how else to explain this

Emissions are global.

It should be a global effort to reduce them.

Zimbabwe is irrelevant in terms of global policy or even emissions. Germany isn't, therefore people watch what happens in Germany, and it isn't good.

Biggest player on the EU stage, and a supposed trendsetter on the renewable side. And yet their energy policy has been a complete, unmitigated disaster.

[blender]

Lots of back and forth here which makes for informative and entertaining reading.

Does anyone consider that energy shortages and high prices are actually the most beneficial thing that could happen in fighting climate change?

There is obviously a belief that we need to find a way to replace the carbon-emitting energy with something cleaner and many of the arguments here are correctly citing the obvious shortfall between our "needs" and what renewables are currently capable of. Perhaps the shortfall is the solution, at least until the technology is in place for a massive space-based solar array that wirelessly transmits electricity down to Earth.

[Firebot]

Whether the reasons was peak oil or climate change, the world needs to transition away, but most countries are stubbornly avoiding and even eliminating nuclear at a time when the right energy transition is most crucial. We have high global energy prices because most of the world has been shifting to renewables ideologically while still being dependent on reliable but finite energy (coal / natural gas), and once demand went back up after the pandemic effects subsided (and with it came negative oil prices and shutting down of operations). So yes, energy prices if looking purely at global events went up because of the supply / demand imbalance caused by the pandemic, but the spike showed what is in store for us if we don't embrace nuclear as the true solution once fossil fuels are gone and continue to push in the wrong direction.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by blender

Lots of back and forth here which makes for informative and entertaining reading.

Does anyone consider that energy shortages and high prices are actually the most beneficial thing that could happen in fighting climate change?

There is obviously a belief that we need to find a way to replace the carbon-emitting energy with something cleaner and many of the arguments here are correctly citing the obvious shortfall between our "needs" and what renewables are currently capable of. Perhaps the shortfall is the solution, at least until the technology is in place for a massive space-based solar array that wirelessly transmits electricity down to Earth.

It's a bit of a double edged sword. If shortages happen, prices go up which incentivizes more drilling, but it also brings price parity to greener solutions. But if demand is too high, people go back to coal, as we are seeing, because it's cheap as dirt, and easy to implement rapidly.