Alberta budget news

[Slava]

Originally Posted by yads

I would be fine with raising taxes only after the government has demonstrated that they actually did cost cutting first. Real cost cutting measures, like rolling back public sector compensation to be more in line with the private sector; reducing management overhead and implementing real delivery benchmarks in the highest spending areas. Until that is done, I don't event want to see them entertain the idea of raising taxes.

I don't disagree with that idea, but I also don't think its that simple. Look at the issue with the doctors as an example; you try to convince a group to take a pay cut and they resist and take the fight to the media. I have no doubt that other areas of public employment would work out in a similar manner particularly with union involvement.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Slava

sure, but what if the realism is that our taxes are too low? I totally get that no one wants to pay more, but it seems like the Wildrose and their supporters are focused purely on cuts.

Not true - I also support elimination ...

Seriously though, was out for drinks (poliwing night) with Derek Fildebrandt and he floated the idea of having a PST and reducing personal income tax.

At first I balked at it, but the idea is starting to grow on me.

BTW: You should come out to poliwings one of these times.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by First Lady

Not true - I also support elimination ...

Seriously though, was out for drinks (poliwing night) with Derek Fildebrandt and he floated the idea of having a PST and reducing personal income tax.

At first I balked at it, but the idea is starting to grow on me.

BTW: You should come out to poliwings one of these times.

I read a study this week (that I hope to bring up somehow tomorrow) which was written at the turn of the century. It ran through the idea that Alberta could have a VAT and no income tax at all. I am totally down. Its a very interesting study, although it was 82 pages...

I can't confirm this, but I heard from a very smart guy that this was presented to Klein and his finance minister of the day (either Day or Dinning, not sure which) and they liked it. They decided it was suicidal though because it would be framed as a tax grab while there was no debt (paraphrasing, obviously).

I will come to poliwings. I actually met with Joey O a week or two ago and am going to write some stuff for them. They need to have it on a night other than Wednesday though. There is one person I'm particularly interested to meet actually...just wondering if my extreme dislike would hold up in real life.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

I didn't think I would ever see this written. Do you mind if I take it out of context and apply it in my mind to the end of every political post you make?

I'm going to go a little bit further...

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Slava

That said, I agree with Danielle Smith () when she says that the outcomes from this forum are likely pre-determined. I don't agree with everything he says here, but here is her editorial from the Herald this morning.http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion...#ixzz2KK2G9KRO

Lionel Witherspoon, Bloomingdales Security Officer: [as a clearly nervous Vladimir pours water over himself in Bloomingdale's] What do you think you're doing?
Vladimir Ivanoff aka Slava: I defect.
Lionel Witherspoon, Bloomingdales Security Officer: Not here, you don't. There's a men's room down the hall.
Cop: This is New York City. A man can do whatever he wants.

Welcome to the Dark side Slava!

[GP_Matt]

Good luck tomorrow Slava.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Slava

I will come to poliwings. I actually met with Joey O a week or two ago and am going to write some stuff for them. They need to have it on a night other than Wednesday though.

yeah Wednesday isn't that great for me right now either. I'm in class until 8:30, so end up showing up late.

There is one person I'm particularly interested to meet actually...just wondering if my extreme dislike would hold up in real life.

My husband?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by First Lady

yeah Wednesday isn't that great for me right now either. I'm in class until 8:30, so end up showing up late.



My husband?

No, not at all! I've read his blog a lot and I actually think we'd get along well. I know politically we're total opposites, but most of my friends are. I don't care about that. I don't want to say who it is on a public forum. I've never met them and it might not be fair. Judging by their tweets though I'm pretty sure I'd hate them!

[First Lady]

For the dedicated budget geeks out there, you can watch the Economic Summit live here.

Also Twitter hashtag is #absummit

[Slava]

I promised I would update my thoughts here and typed a lengthy review on my blog last night here:http://victorlough.com/?p=255

I can totally understand not wanting to read all of it though, so let me give a few impressions:

- I went in thinking we were about to be used as a group of marks so that the government could say "we consulted, we listened" and then do whatever they want. They still might! I'm actually quite convinced that the government has no idea what to do at this point, but it is very important so I am happy that they're at least trying to reach out.

- There were many viewpoints represented both on the panels and in the audience. It was not a room full of Tories, although there were a number. Let's be honest though, any room in the province will have a lot of Tories when they get 40+ support!

- George Gosbee and Jack Mintz were the most impressive panelists in my opinion. I say that not because they said what I want to hear, but because they both brought well thought out and well reasoned ideas to the table. Another I would include here is Michael Holden who was excellent.

- The panel with Mintz and Fildebrandt was maybe the best as a spectator. Easily the most heater and I left feeling bad for Fildebrandt actually.

- Tom Flanagan and Gil McGowan were both awesome. I mean they both only have one prescription and they both made their points, but they were courteous to each other and downright hilarious. Especially when we had just finished the conflict between Mintz and Fildebrandt.

I would be happy to try to expand on things or answer questions. As an aside, totally anecdotal, I found the Tories to be the nicest people there. The Liberals (aside from the one who brought me, obviously) didn't talk to me at all. The Wildrose didn't either. I spoke with a couple NDPers and they were really nice and welcoming, and same with the Tories. I only bring that up because it was weird. My MLA is a Wildrose for example, who sat maybe 5feet from me and didn't even say hi....so bizarre.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Slava

I promised I would update my thoughts here and typed a lengthy review on my blog last night here:http://victorlough.com/?p=255

I can totally understand not wanting to read all of it though, so let me give a few impressions:

- I went in thinking we were about to be used as a group of marks so that the government could say "we consulted, we listened" and then do whatever they want. They still might! I'm actually quite convinced that the government has no idea what to do at this point, but it is very important so I am happy that they're at least trying to reach out.

- There were many viewpoints represented both on the panels and in the audience. It was not a room full of Tories, although there were a number. Let's be honest though, any room in the province will have a lot of Tories when they get 40+ support!

- George Gosbee and Jack Mintz were the most impressive panelists in my opinion. I say that not because they said what I want to hear, but because they both brought well thought out and well reasoned ideas to the table. Another I would include here is Michael Holden who was excellent.

- The panel with Mintz and Fildebrandt was maybe the best as a spectator. Easily the most heater and I left feeling bad for Fildebrandt actually.

- Tom Flanagan and Gil McGowan were both awesome. I mean they both only have one prescription and they both made their points, but they were courteous to each other and downright hilarious. Especially when we had just finished the conflict between Mintz and Fildebrandt.

I would be happy to try to expand on things or answer questions. As an aside, totally anecdotal, I found the Tories to be the nicest people there. The Liberals (aside from the one who brought me, obviously) didn't talk to me at all. The Wildrose didn't either. I spoke with a couple NDPers and they were really nice and welcoming, and same with the Tories. I only bring that up because it was weird. My MLA is a Wildrose for example, who sat maybe 5feet from me and didn't even say hi....so bizarre.

Thank you for posting your thoughts on the Economic Summit. The local papers haven't done a very good job of posting views without the usual bias. I read your blog and have to say you did a great job of summerizing the key points along side your unbiased thoughts. It's a nice change from reading Rick Bell and his constant sarcastic digs at the Redford govt.

I would encourage others to read it also

[MarchHare]

It's a nice change from reading Rick Bell

Why would you (or anyone else, really) ever read Rick Bell?

[Dion]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Why would you (or anyone else, really) ever read Rick Bell?

I need a good laugh every morning.

[First Lady]

Thirds quarter update is coming out today.

‘It’s not going to be pretty,’ Opposition says of Alberta fiscal update

The government’s original forecast for 2012-13 was for an $886-million deficit (to be followed by a surplus next year), but in his second-quarter fiscal update in November, Horner had suggested anywhere from $2.3 billion to $3 billion was more realistic.

In an interview with the Herald late last month, Horner said that in spite of an across-the-board tightening of day-to-day government spending, third-quarter figures could be even worse as the oil price differential widened during December.

“We know it’s going to be uglier than what I put out there in the second quarter; I’m pretty sure of that,” Horner said.

Apparently all opposition parties have been barred from the briefing... press only.

[Jacks]

Update: Now it's 3.5 - 4 billion.
http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/al...454/story.html

A $2.4 billion drop in resource revenue has put Alberta on pace for a deficit of between $3.5- and $4 billion — one of the highest deficits in history, Finance Minister Doug Horner revealed Tuesday in the province’s third quarter fiscal update.The sea of red ink will be four times deeper than was forecast in the budget last February. The province initially predicted an $886 million deficit, but by the second quarter had increased its deficit forecast to $2.3 to $3 billion.
Now it’s forecast to be $1 billion more, which will rival the $4 billion deficit the Don Getty government posted in 1986-87.

I'll just sum up the talking points.
1) It doesn't matter because the Wildrose would be just as bad.
2) It's impossible to reduce government spending.
3) The parking lot at Chinook Centre was full today, that proves nobody cares.
4) If you don't agree with that you are with the terrorists.

[Slava]

Wasn't the Wildrose saying $6B a few weeks ago and saying they could have this down to $3-4?

It's also interesting to note that suggestions like cutting management and freezing wages in the public sector are being implemented as well. Surely the Wildrose supporters are on board with that?

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Update: Now it's 3.5 - 4 billion.

Now it’s forecast to be $1 billion more, which will rival the $4 billion deficit the Don Getty government posted in 1986-87.

I wonder if there was some "fudging" (of stuff like future revenue, etc.) to make sure the estimate came in under that record number. Can't be good regardless.

[nik-]

It's too bad the only other potential option is a redneck gongshow.

[chemgear]

Going back to the "Your Choice Budget 2012/2013 website" - looks like the $4 billion translates into either:

Raising income tax to ~14% (from 10%)

or

Start a sales tax of ~4%


Obviously you can cut/do other things but I was wondering what the scale was if you were to just do one or the other.

[yads]

Love this quote

Alberta Federation of Labour President Gil McGowan said the finance minister appears to be more intent on finding scapegoats than solutions.

“The real cause of the problem has to do with years and years of cuts to taxes for high income earners and corporations, and years and years of royalty giveaways,” he said. “It has nothing to do with how much we pay our public sector workers.”

Yes, the real cause is tax cuts that happened 12 years ago. Although I do agree health premiums should not have been cut (ironically tax cuts benefiting low and middle income earners).