Mark "Fricken" Jankowski (aka The Big Jankowski)

[Metro Gnome]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

The only thing I could add to your post is that Jankowski didn't come from a tier 2 league, he came from tier 3 or 4. His competition was probably equivalent to good American High school or AAA Canadian midget leagues. He's making a huge jump to American college level games, so along with his late birthday, I'd give him more of a break on his PPG average.

That's true, but there's just so little info from tier-3 and 4 leagues like HS. I went through drafts since 2004 and there was only about 10 forwards selected out of Minnesota HS who I could use to compare to Janko.

Only two of those made the show: Blake Wheeler, who had a long track to the NHL, first playing in the USHL and then four years in college. He scored over 3 points per game in HS though, whereas Janko was just over 1.75 in his draft year.

The other was TJ Oshie. He also scored more than 3 PPG in HS. He went straight to college from there and put up a point-per-game pace as a freshman.

Anyone from this sample who didn't collect at least a 3 PPG pace in Minnesota HS hockey didn't make the NHL.

[Tinordi]

What Kent's post is basically saying is that expectations for Janko should be fairly tempered. Based on similar players drafted from similar circumstances there haven't been many real standouts. And while Janko is sold as a skill player if he emerges at the top of the curve we'd get a player similar to Zajac.

This post should muffle some of the "swing for the fences" talk regarding the pick. Even if everything works out and then some, this player would be a very very long shot to be a first line player.

[Metro Gnome]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

What Kent's post is basically saying is that expectations for Janko should be fairly tempered. Based on similar players drafted from similar circumstances there haven't been many real standouts. And while Janko is sold as a skill player if he emerges at the top of the curve we'd get a player similar to Zajac.

This post should muffle some of the "swing for the fences" talk regarding the pick. Even if everything works out and then some, this player would be a very very long shot to be a first line player.

Yeah...taken altogether from the guys out of tier-2 junior leagues and tier-3 HS leagues, there isn't a one of them that is a high-end star. The best of the bunch are Zajac, Turris, Wheeler and Oshie. Now, those are some pretty good players and personally I'd be quite happy if Jankwoski turned out to be as good as, say, Zajac or Oshie.

That said, it's not impossible Jankowski will be an extreme outlier and turn out to be the best player amongst them, but it's not something I'd put much money on.

In terms of expectations, I agree something below a 0.7 PPG pace this year wouldn't be a disaster given his age and the jump up in competition. I'll be much more worried if he isn't at 1 PPG or better in his sophomore year though.

[kehatch]

I don't want to come off as I don't like the article. I do. It is interesting information.

But, as much as we would like forgo patience and accurately predict Jankowski's range the data isn't there to do it. The assumption is that because there hasn't been a top player drafted out of a tier 3 league that Jankowski isn't going to be a top player. But there are have hardly been any players drafted out of those types of leagues.

I have some faith in Weisbrod and the fact they aggressively went out and pursued this kid inspires some confidence. But we really won't know how this pick turns out for a few years yet.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by kehatch

I don't want to come off as I don't like the article. I do. It is interesting information.

But, as much as we would like forgo patience and accurately predict Jankowski's range the data isn't there to do it. The assumption is that because there hasn't been a top player drafted out of a tier 3 league that Jankowski isn't going to be a top player. But there are have hardly been any players drafted out of those types of leagues.

I have some faith in Weisbrod and the fact they aggressively went out and pursued this kid inspires some confidence. But we really won't know how this pick turns out for a few years yet.

What articles like this do is give us a semblance of a relevant baseline. You're right, there's no data yet to project what kind of player Janko will be. But there is data out there to get an idea of where he's starting from and what to expect if he hits various targets.

[Metro Gnome]

Originally Posted by kehatch

I don't want to come off as I don't like the article. I do. It is interesting information.

But, as much as we would like forgo patience and accurately predict Jankowski's range the data isn't there to do it. The assumption is that because there hasn't been a top player drafted out of a tier 3 league that Jankowski isn't going to be a top player. But there are have hardly been any players drafted out of those types of leagues.

I have some faith in Weisbrod and the fact they aggressively went out and pursued this kid inspires some confidence. But we really won't know how this pick turns out for a few years yet.

That's fair enough. As you say, there just isn't a lot of data to look at. In addition, every case is unique in some respects...there's only so much a comparables list can tell us about Jankowski himself.

But, since we can't fast forward time 4 years down the road, this type of stuff is all we're left with here.

[kehatch]

Again, love the article. I think they are worth doing. It gives fans an idea on what to expect as he develops. I just don't think we should be assigning a ceiling.

Perhaps that is just my insecure need to be optimistic after drafting him over players like Ceci. But I still have some hope he does meet some of the hype the Feaster PR group was putting on him.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Metro Gnome

That's true, but there's just so little info from tier-3 and 4 leagues like HS. I went through drafts since 2004 and there was only about 10 forwards selected out of Minnesota HS who I could use to compare to Janko.

I believe that Minnesota High School is actually a step up from where Jankowksi was playing, if I remember. Something to do with the Quebec HS league is actually lower than American HS leagues. Not sure if I remember that correctly or not, but if true, it makes any comparisons even more difficult to make.

Interestingly enough, Matt Dumba and Coda Gordon both went through the MPHL (where Jankowski was drafted out of), but both of them ended up going to the WHL.

MPHL Represented at 2012 NHL Draft

Stanstead College's Mark Jankowski goes 21st in the 2012 NHL Draft to the Calgary Flames. Edge School Alums, Matthew Dumba (7th overall, Minnesota) and Coda Gordon (165th, Calgary) were also selected in the annual draft.

http://themphl.pointstreaksites.com/view/themphl


An MPHL article on Coda during last season:

"It's no fluke that he has been this good," says Mullin. "Gordon was tied for the Broncos lead in pre-season points. Talking to (Broncos assistant general manager) Jamie Porter, he said Gordon just needed a year to get stronger as a 16-year-old and it sure has seemed to work out. Maybe he shouldn't have been a surprise at all. He scored 110 points with Edge School last year. I know it's hard to translate midget-school stats like that to the WHL, but he definitely showed great offensive instincts by being able to produce at that rate."

http://themphl.pointstreaksites.com/...170/news_44422


At any rate, it seems pretty difficult to find any comparables. It makes following Jankowski's development even more intriguing. He was a player playing in a league that attracted zero NHL scouts, and he ended up making enough noise that 40 scouts (once again, if I remember correctly) ended up showing up to view him at one time, and scouts were present at every game halfway through the season until the end. This tells me that he definitely held a lot of interest.

Flames' scouting staff feel this guy is the real deal. I really hope they are right. However, everything around him makes him a more intriguing prospect - his growth spurt, being passed over in the bantam draft, coming out of an 'insignificant' league, looking pretty good at Flames' camp, and being compared by Weisbrod as "Nieuwendyk"...

I just think he is the most interesting prospect to follow out of the 1st round.

[Metro Gnome]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I believe that Minnesota High School is actually a step up from where Jankowksi was playing, if I remember. Something to do with the Quebec HS league is actually lower than American HS leagues. Not sure if I remember that correctly or not, but if true, it makes any comparisons even more difficult to make.

Interestingly enough, Matt Dumba and Coda Gordon both went through the MPHL (where Jankowski was drafted out of), but both of them ended up going to the WHL.



http://themphl.pointstreaksites.com/view/themphl


An MPHL article on Coda during last season:



http://themphl.pointstreaksites.com/...170/news_44422


At any rate, it seems pretty difficult to find any comparables. It makes following Jankowski's development even more intriguing. He was a player playing in a league that attracted zero NHL scouts, and he ended up making enough noise that 40 scouts (once again, if I remember correctly) ended up showing up to view him at one time, and scouts were present at every game halfway through the season until the end. This tells me that he definitely held a lot of interest.

Flames' scouting staff feel this guy is the real deal. I really hope they are right. However, everything around him makes him a more intriguing prospect - his growth spurt, being passed over in the bantam draft, coming out of an 'insignificant' league, looking pretty good at Flames' camp, and being compared by Weisbrod as "Nieuwendyk"...

I just think he is the most interesting prospect to follow out of the 1st round.

Yeah, it will be interesting to see this play out. And whatever happens, I don't even know if any lessons can be drawn from it because it's such a unique case.

[korzym12]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Sure, but you weren't asking tough questions, just ignorant ones.

Oh I get it, you just take everything personally.

[Mitch]

Originally Posted by korzym12

Oh I get it, you just take everything personally.

And another ignorant post, nice!

[Oil Stain]

He has 7 points in 10 games now so that is looking better.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

He has 7 points in 10 games now so that is looking better.

Meh, yah. Didn't think it was looking bad though either.

[getbak]

Transition to NCAA going well for Jankowski: http://flames.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=645719

While Providence College Friars head coach Nate Leaman is satisfied with freshman Mark Jankowski's offensive output through the opening month and a half of the 2012-13 season, he's been particularly impressed with the 18 year-old's presence in the offensive zone.

"Overall, with Mark, I think the transition has been very good. He's made a lot of plays. He has three goals, one being a game-winner, but if you look at the chances that he's had ... he's averaging somewhere between four and five Grade-A scoring chances a game ... the finishing, it's going to come. That's part of the transition to this level.

"If I had to give him a grade, I'd give him a B. He's done a very good job."

Up to 182 pounds, he has added 14 pounds since the draft.

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

Originally Posted by getbak

Transition to NCAA going well for Jankowski: http://flames.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=645719



Up to 182 pounds, he has added 14 pounds since the draft.

Ultimately, at his size, I'd like to see him get his weight up to the 200 range. Nice to see he's on the right path though.

[Vinny01]

Eventually I hope he is 215-225 if he gets to that 6'4-6'5 range. He was 6'2 and 3/4 at the draft and according to that article he has grown an inch.

What makes me excited about Janko is the smarts/hockey sense he has. He now has a NHL frame which he needs to add a lot of weight to but if he continues to increase his skill with his size I think he will make the impact the Flames brass are hoping for.

[Stay Golden]

Sounds like Jankowski is off to a decent start at Providence!

[Alberta_Beef]

So Jankowski is probably 6'3.5 and pushing 185lbs now. This is very good news.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by getbak

Transition to NCAA going well for Jankowski: http://flames.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=645719



Up to 182 pounds, he has added 14 pounds since the draft.

That only sounds impressive until you realize that EVERYONE who's off at university for the first time on their own is up 14 pounds since the draft.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

That only sounds impressive until you realize that EVERYONE who's off at university for the first time on their own is up 14 pounds since the draft.

I have a feeling his "Freshman 15" is a little healthier than most people's (or, at least, I hope so).