April 23 2012: Alberta Provincial Election

[Slava]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

Sure, we should spend more money because next year we will spend more money? Makes sense to me.

Lots of these savings would last in perpetuity (elimination of huge and wasteful departments).

You could tie salary increases to inflation. I never budgeted any savings for hiring freeze anyways. Learn to live within a realistic budget. These kinds of things happen to families every day, and yet it's impossible for a government to do the same thing?

Its about prioritization, efficiency and delivering on core accountability. Something the PC's are terrible at.

Its cute. Tie public sector wage increases to inflation and pretty soon you have no one who wants to do this work. I had a boss give me a raise tied to inflation, once. Within six months I was out the door and on my own. Thats the reality of the labour situation in Alberta.

I am highly skeptical that this would fly, but by all means I hope this is the kind of thing the Wildrose is banking on.

[GP_Matt]

If you vote PC Slava I think you should take a picture of the ballot and post it here.

Are you even allowed to use a camera in a polling station?

[GP_Matt]

The Wildrose isn't advocating for drastic cuts. Just a slowing of the increase in spending.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I'm somewhat reminded of a couple federal elections ago when the Conservatives rushed out to majority territory early in the campaign, and scared left wingers flooded to the Liberals to stave off the scary agenda.

This could easily go any way depending on the timing.

If the WRA start polling too high then I think you will see a bit of a pullback in their soft supporters going back to the PC's. At the same time we will surely see a huge collapse in the "blue" Liberal vote as they fully move into the PC camp.

Problem is then if the PC's numbers recover and it looks like another strong majority for them the Liberal vote could go back home and the vote of the disgusted Conservatives could leave them again.

I doubt either party wants to see big polling numbers in the first week or two.

[Resolute 14]

The reason why I doubt a left moving to the PCs is that it is really only feasible in Edmonton. The Libs and NDP don't have enough support in Calgary or the rural areas to make much of a difference.

Also of interest from 308's numbers is that all three floor crossers for Wildrose are showing as having huge leads in their ridings. It should go without saying that there would be a very high margin of error in those breakdowns though. Raj Sherman is showing as second, in a tight three-horse race between PC, WR and Lib. The Liberal party leader could conceivably finish third in his riding - or come up the middle and take the seat. Can't remember off hand who else crossed the floor.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

If you vote PC Slava I think you should take a picture of the ballot and post it here.

Are you even allowed to use a camera in a polling station?

I don't know if you are, but I might know a guy who was a trustee candidate who has a picture of the ballot with an X by his name....

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The reason why I doubt a left moving to the PCs is that it is really only feasible in Edmonton. The Libs and NDP don't have enough support in Calgary or the rural areas to make much of a difference.

Also of interest from 308's numbers is that all three floor crossers for Wildrose are showing as having huge leads in their ridings. It should go without saying that there would be a very high margin of error in those breakdowns though. Raj Sherman is showing as second, in a tight three-horse race between PC, WR and Lib. The Liberal party leader could conceivably finish third in his riding - or come up the middle and take the seat. Can't remember off hand who else crossed the floor.

Dave Taylor and last I saw 308 has the Alberta Party winning that seat. As soon as I saw that 308 lost all credibility with me! Plus his methodology wasn't effective in the federal campaign. Its still pretty early, and really the big push hasn't even started yet.

[Resolute 14]

That must have been based on some seriously foolish polls, because 308 has the AP a far, far distant fifth in Calgary-Currie. Though yes, the individual seat polls should be taken with a very large grain of salt.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The Libs and NDP don't have enough support in Calgary or the rural areas to make much of a difference.

The NDP and the rural areas for sure. Last election there was quite a bit of Liberal support in Calgary but who knows, much of that may have been people fed up with the PC's with no other option at the time. Raj could have it tough but so could Smith, imagine if we had a minority government and the only leader to keep his/her seat was Mason

[MarchHare]

The Libs and NDP don't have enough support in Calgary or the rural areas to make much of a difference.

Don't the Liberals currently have 4 or 5 seats in Calgary?

[Jacks]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta...election,_2008

Libs had 33.9% of the vote in Calgary in 2008. I doubt they will get anywhere near that this time but they do have a base of support.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Jacks

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta...election,_2008

Libs had 33.9% of the vote in Calgary in 2008. I doubt they will get anywhere near that this time but they do have a base of support.

Well the logical conclusion is that some will stay with them (Kent Hehr and David Swann will win, most likely) and a lot will go to the PCs to keep off the right-wing horde. This is why its hard for the Wildrose; they have to play nice because they're courting the very people they are trying to dethrone.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Slava

(Kent Hehr and David Swann will win, most likely)

I was surprised to see the pictures of Raj door knocking with Swann today, that has to be one of their safest seats no?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Jacks

I was surprised to see the pictures of Raj door knocking with Swann today, that has to be one of their safest seats no?

Its pretty safe. You can rest assured that if they lose his and Buffalo its a disaster for the ALP. As an added bonus if Hehr loses Buffalo, I'll be really upset..so for at least some people here you might be thrilled. I don't think that will happen, but you never know.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Don't the Liberals currently have 4 or 5 seats in Calgary?

They did, but that is irrelevant to what I actually said. Right now they are polling in the single digits across Calgary and aren't projected to take any seats

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

Raising taxes might make sense if we had a revenue problem but I think we have a spending problem. And for those advocating that we need to raise taxes to build a nest egg for the future that sounds way too much like you think the government should be taking our money and putting it away for the future because we are incapable of doing it ourselves.

The nest egg isn't to replace individual saving. It's so the province has a new competitive advantage when the oil sands lose their economic power.

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

And yet, we've been doubling the Canadian average for over a decade with very little to show for it. Poor planning. Mismanagement and waste.

Right now we spend double and certainly dont have twice as good infrastructure than anyone, so your simplification isn't necessarily true. Why is it our closest neighbors (BC and SSK) can spend significantly less than us and still have comparable returns on their investments? Are they just that much smarter than Albertans?

You missed the point completely. There's no way we get double for spending double because labour is expensive here. So to have average infrastructure, we need to spend above average. That's not poor planning, mismanagement and waste, it's strong competition from the private sector.

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The reason why I doubt a left moving to the PCs is that it is really only feasible in Edmonton. The Libs and NDP don't have enough support in Calgary or the rural areas to make much of a difference.

The left has a strong history of not voting strategically.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by SebC

The left has a strong history of not voting strategically.

Only for each other.

http://www.changealberta.ca/aboutchangealberta.aspx

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

They did, but that is irrelevant to what I actually said. Right now they are polling in the single digits across Calgary and aren't projected to take any seats

Really? At the very least, I find it unlikely that Hehr and Swann would lose their seats. They're both pretty popular incumbents and will see more vote-splitting amongst their opponents this time.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by First Lady

Only for each other.

http://www.changealberta.ca/aboutchangealberta.aspx

Sure, there are advocates for strategic voting, but their impact is limited.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Last election there was quite a bit of Liberal support in Calgary but who knows, much of that may have been people fed up with the PC's with no other option at the time. Raj could have it tough but so could Smith, imagine if we had a minority government and the only leader to keep his/her seat was Mason

At the current rate things are going, I might be inclined to say that we may see this election as the end of the Alberta Liberal party in Alberta politics. I know it's a weird thing to say, but I can really see them decimated down to a single seat or maybe even zero. It's turning out to be a horrible series of events for them and I don't see them with enough momentum to maintain what they've traditionally retains as the main opposition in the province.