Brad Treliving needs to go

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

You didn't look very hard. Our previous permanent GM was fired before Christmas. The guy before was forced out before New Year's.

Replace him with?? Also not a difficult question. Two former NHL GM's on the payroll currently, not to mention a guy who has interviewed for other GM positions. So interim replacement not hard to find.

I don't know what Flames will do but history shows mid season canning of GM is clearly a possibility.

Yes good point. I stand corrected. Worked out splendidly before.

[UKflames]

I was definately in the 'wait and see' column for this Summer and any moves BT would make, but the further we get through the summer, and closer to training camp, the more concerned I am getting that he really is going to bring back the same forward group as last year, with a few tweaks. That is expecting bounce back seasons from a lot of players all at once. Is Eichel the hail mary to change things up, if so how long does he wait?
If they struggle out of the gate, and the flames normally do, he could be on the hot seat early.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by UKflames

I was definately in the 'wait and see' column for this Summer and any moves BT would make, but the further we get through the summer, and closer to training camp, the more concerned I am getting that he really is going to bring back the same forward group as last year, with a few tweaks. That is expecting bounce back seasons from a lot of players all at once. Is Eichel the hail mary to change things up, if so how long does he wait?
If they struggle out of the gate, and the flames normally do, he could be on the hot seat early.

Frankly, a bounce back season from even one of Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Andersson, Valimaki, Hanifin, or Marsktrom would be equivalent to a big off-season add. If only 2/7 of those players have bounce-back seasons, you are talking about the equivalent of two big off-season additions. If 3/7 of them (still less than half) have bounce-back seasons, that's the equivalent of upgrading your entire top line. Do you really think it is very likely that NONE of those players will have a bounce-back season, considering their ages?

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Frankly, a bounce back season from even one of Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Andersson, Valimaki, Hanifin, or Marsktrom would be equivalent to a big off-season add. If only 2/7 of those players have bounce-back seasons, you are talking about the equivalent of two big off-season additions. If 3/7 of them (still less than half) have bounce-back seasons, that's the equivalent of upgrading your entire top line. Do you really think it is very likely that NONE of those players will have a bounce-back season, considering their ages?

That’s an interesting argument, but you don’t account for players taking a step back. What if 2-3 of Hanifin/Tanev/Backlund/Mangiapane/Lucic/Markstrom take a step back. I like the optimism, and there will be players taking a step, there will also be setbacks and injuries. I agree that as the team stands, it is clear that improvement has to come from within. That said it’s a huge gamble, and far from a sure thing.

As the team stands, I would not bet any money on the Flames winning the division, or winning more than 1 round in the playoffs. I see the same problems the Flames had, but magnified. The transition game snd offense from the D will be lacking. The Flames still lack scoring threats from distance, and the Flames are still likely to have a bottom 1/3 power play. Last year when we were trailing, I caught myself asking who is going to score/even the game. More often than not the answer was nobody. Our team was way too easy to shut down, and every mistake on the backend was magnified as a result. I hope Sutter can improve that, but that’s a huge ask.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

That’s an interesting argument, but you don’t account for players taking a step back. What if 2-3 of Hanifin/Tanev/Backlund/Mangiapane/Lucic/Markstrom take a step back. I like the optimism, and there will be players taking a step, there will also be setbacks and injuries. I agree that as the team stands, it is clear that improvement has to come from within. That said it’s a huge gamble, and far from a sure thing.

As the team stands, I would not bet any money on the Flames winning the division, or winning more than 1 round in the playoffs. I see the same problems the Flames had, but magnified. The transition game snd offense from the D will be lacking. The Flames still lack scoring threats from distance, and the Flames are still likely to have a bottom 1/3 power play. Last year when we were trailing, I caught myself asking who is going to score/even the game. More often than not the answer was nobody. Our team was way too easy to shut down, and every mistake on the backend was magnified as a result. I hope Sutter can improve that, but that’s a huge ask.

No reason to expect Markstrom to take a step back, he just had his worst season and isn't quite at that age yet when the decline should be part of a trend. Lucic is already contributing little as far as scoring is concerned, so a step back on his part would have little impact. Hanifin and Mangiapane are still on that part of their development in which they would in most cases take at least another small step forward. So the only one I'm worried about of the ones you listed would be Tanev, who had a better than expected season.

The Flames are in a weak division, but I agree with you that they likely don't win the division unless Tanev has another great season and all seven core players who had sub-par seasons have bounce-back seasons this year. I consider this scenario unlikely, but with a full season under a real head coach, you never know.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

No reason to expect Markstrom to take a step back, he just had his worst season and isn't quite at that age yet when the decline should be part of a trend. Lucic is already contributing little as far as scoring is concerned, so a step back on his part would have little impact. Hanifin and Mangiapane are still on that part of their development in which they would in most cases take at least another small step forward. So the only one I'm worried about of the ones you listed would be Tanev, who had a better than expected season.

The Flames are in a weak division, but I agree with you that they likely don't win the division unless Tanev has another great season and all seven core players who had sub-par seasons have bounce-back seasons this year. I consider this scenario unlikely, but with a full season under a real head coach, you never know.

Yes, I don't expect these players to necessarily take a step back. That said, you can have players take a step back. This applies to both younger and older players alike. I didn't expect Andersson/Tkachuk/Monahan/Valmimaki(I thought he looked better in his first season) to take a step back last season either. It happens, and it's normal. I also didn't expect Hanifin to take a huge step forward, and Tanev to be such a difference maker. My point is that generally these things average out.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

Yes, I don't expect these players to necessarily take a step back. That said, you can have players take a step back. This applies to both younger and older players alike. I didn't expect Andersson/Tkachuk/Monahan/Valmimaki(I thought he looked better in his first season) to take a step back last season either. It happens, and it's normal. I also didn't expect Hanifin to take a huge step forward, and Tanev to be such a difference maker. My point is that generally these things average out.

This is consistent with my belief that last season was an outlier with almost all of the core players taking a step back despite only Gio being at an age when it was expected. It is highly unlikely that such a coincidence would be repeated.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

This is consistent with my belief that last season was an outlier with almost all of the core players taking a step back despite only Gio being at an age when it was expected. It is highly unlikely that such a coincidence would be repeated.

Agreed.

And if it wasn't a coincidence, and they don't bounce back but are in fact what they showed us last year, then you have certainty and you tear it up.

(but my money is on a rebound)

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

This is consistent with my belief that last season was an outlier with almost all of the core players taking a step back despite only Gio being at an age when it was expected. It is highly unlikely that such a coincidence would be repeated.

The only player notably off their career average from an offensive production perspective was Sean Monahan. Everyone else was right in around their average, and well within normal year to year fluctuation.

Defensively speaking, I think you can easily blame a lot on Geoff Ward’s structure/ability to get them to play that structure. Offensively though? Outside of Monahan things weren’t that off.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

The only player notably off their career average from an offensive production perspective was Sean Monahan. Everyone else was right in around their average, and well within normal year to year fluctuation.

Defensively speaking, I think you can easily blame a lot on Geoff Ward’s structure/ability to get them to play that structure. Offensively though? Outside of Monahan things weren’t that off.

Some of those averages are skewed by rookie and sophomore seasons. Tkachuk had a downturn compared to his past couple seasons, for example. Gaudreau was not below his previous season, but well below the 2 before that. They also missed Brodie’s contribution.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Some of those averages are skewed by rookie and sophomore seasons. Tkachuk had a downturn compared to his past couple seasons, for example. Gaudreau was not below his previous season, but well below the 2 before that. They also missed Brodie’s contribution.

Gaudreau sure stacked up the points in the last 15 games, last season.

Didn’t really matter, at that point.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by timbit

Gaudreau sure stacked up the points in the last 15 games, last season.

Didn’t really matter, at that point.

Gaudreau will be fine if you give him two good players to play with. Not an injured slow guy and a 4th liner like they did for 2/3 of last season.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Some of those averages are skewed by rookie and sophomore seasons. Tkachuk had a downturn compared to his past couple seasons, for example. Gaudreau was not below his previous season, but well below the 2 before that. They also missed Brodie’s contribution.

You could make the argument that the averages are skewed just as much by their 18/19 career years where they all produced above/well above career averages.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by timbit

Gaudreau sure stacked up the points in the last 15 games, last season.

Didn’t really matter, at that point.

Often I hear people ask what happened to guys like Gaudreau and Monahan that they haven't been the same the last 2 1/2 seasons as they were for before that. For both guys, and Gaudreau in particular, his play in this time is not that different than the rest of his career if you take away a 30 game stretch in 18-19 as the outlier. From games 20 to 50, Gaudreau put up 53 points in 30 games which was a 145 point pace if sustained over 82 games. Over the rest of the season he had 46 points in 52 games, which is about a 72 point pace. Monahan had 41 in that same stretch, and 62 in his first 50 games that season. Depending how you want to see it, he had 20 points in the last 32 or 41 points outside of that 30 game heater or really strong first 50. Which are both not too far off of the other numbers he had put up in his career leading up to that.

Really if you take that 30 game heater away from both players, you do see that both of them are not as far off production wise as they have been the rest of their careers. But I think a small 30 game sample size caused a few people to think that's what they could/should be when it's not.

This tells me that Gaudreau is less a problem than Monahan's play falling off a cliff has been. I would extend Gaudreau for a raise in pay. Monahan right now, after this deal...may find another 5 million dollar a year deal hard to come by.

I do think that Treliving might actually know this, but I'm not so sure the guy signing his pay cheque believes it, and still thinks that 30 game heater is what this team should be doing with this group. I'm of the opinion that what we've seen for the majority of the last 5 years is what the team is, and that's middling to slightly better than middling and it's time to change things up.

[Bingo]

Last year vs the past.

Tkachuk
off 15% vs the previous year
off 20% vs the previous two years
off 11% vs the previous three years

Gaudreau
up 5% vs the previous year
off 16% vs the previous two years
off 18% vs the previous three years

Monahan
off 22% vs the previous year
off 55% vs the previous two years
off 55% vs the previous three years

Giordano (won't be coming back to rebound)
off 11% vs the previous year
off 58% vs the previous two years
off 38% vs the previous three years

Others down included Derek Ryan, Lindholm to a smaller degree, Backlund (getting older).

Guys going the other way would be ...

Mangiapane
up 18% vs the previous year
up 33% vs the previous two years

Andersson
up 16% vs the previous year
up 26% vs the previous two years

With all that said though the team doesn't have to change the much to have more success. Really comes down to goaltending, as the Flames had the 21st best team save percentage 5 on 5, and 26th best when short handed.

Markstrom healthier ... would be a boost (unknown)
Sutter system ... would be a boost (more of a given, and helping out the point above)

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Often I hear people ask what happened to guys like Gaudreau and Monahan that they haven't been the same the last 2 1/2 seasons as they were for before that. For both guys, and Gaudreau in particular, his play in this time is not that different than the rest of his career if you take away a 30 game stretch in 18-19 as the outlier. From games 20 to 50, Gaudreau put up 53 points in 30 games which was a 145 point pace if sustained over 82 games. Over the rest of the season he had 46 points in 52 games, which is about a 72 point pace. Monahan had 41 in that same stretch, and 62 in his first 50 games that season. Depending how you want to see it, he had 20 points in the last 32 or 41 points outside of that 30 game heater or really strong first 50. Which are both not too far off of the other numbers he had put up in his career leading up to that.

Really if you take that 30 game heater away from both players, you do see that both of them are not as far off production wise as they have been the rest of their careers. But I think a small 30 game sample size caused a few people to think that's what they could/should be when it's not.

This tells me that Gaudreau is less a problem than Monahan's play falling off a cliff has been. I would extend Gaudreau for a raise in pay. Monahan right now, after this deal...may find another 5 million dollar a year deal hard to come by.

I do think that Treliving might actually know this, but I'm not so sure the guy signing his pay cheque believes it, and still thinks that 30 game heater is what this team should be doing with this group. I'm of the opinion that what we've seen for the majority of the last 5 years is what the team is, and that's middling to slightly better than middling and it's time to change things up.

Take any player's best 30 games away and their numbers are going to drop.

What does Mangiapane look like when you do that?

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

The only player notably off their career average from an offensive production perspective was Sean Monahan. Everyone else was right in around their average, and well within normal year to year fluctuation.

Defensively speaking, I think you can easily blame a lot on Geoff Ward’s structure/ability to get them to play that structure. Offensively though? Outside of Monahan things weren’t that off.

This is a fairly lazy analysis though. Tkachuk and Johnny for instance were able to inflate their stats by having strong numbers when the team was already eliminated. Going point per game for more than the last quarter of the season helped those guys get to a better scoring pace. Tkachuk was able to get to 63pts/82 game pace last year. The previous 2 years he was at 79 and 75pt paces over 82 games respectively. Johnny was up this year compared to last at a 72pt pace vs the 68 he played the year before but his previous 2 seasons were 86 and 99pt paces.

I guess what constitutes a fair fluctuation in points year over year?

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Take any player's best 30 games away and their numbers are going to drop.

What does Mangiapane look like when you do that?

How many career games played does Mangiapane have compared to Gaudreau and Monahan?

Plus the difference here is that most of Mangiapane's career games have been played outside the time frame that those two had that really hot stretch, and he was in a very different role when he played on that team.

In the case of Monahan and Gaudreau it's a stretch of consecutive games where them and the team were red hot. It also carried over to guys like Giordano, Lindholm, Backlund, and Tkachuck too. Hence why those guys numbers all look like they dropped so much from that one season.

Where are you going to move the goal posts to now?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

This is a fairly lazy analysis though. Tkachuk and Johnny for instance were able to inflate their stats by having strong numbers when the team was already eliminated. Going point per game for more than the last quarter of the season helped those guys get to a better scoring pace.

That's an even lazier analysis. The Flames were not, in fact, eliminated for the last quarter of the season. Gaudreau and Tkachuk's strongest numbers came once they were put on a line together with Lindholm as their centre.

If you want to ignore usage and linemates, and focus instead on an imaginary narrative that opposing teams let them score at will because the Flames were eliminated when in fact they were not, you have parted your moorings in reality and drifted off into sheer fantasy. But I suppose any stick will do to beat a dog, and you have to make the Flames look worse somehow.

[Gaskal]

Tre needs to publicly threaten to beat Adams up in a barn fight unless he stops holding up the trade market. That'll get things moving!