[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by New Era

I'm not the only one who saw the trend and considered it sketchy. Chris Hayes also raised the issue and NBC had the Arizona Secretary of State on to explain what was going on. She explained that they were down to absentee ballots and adding those tranches in on the fly instead of doing them after the fact and after the counts had got down to zero. This was different than some states because Arizona is not currently facing any lawsuits from either campaign, so this is consider SOP for Arizona elections. Ms. Hobbs was very open and patient in explaining the perceived irregularities and put concerns to rest. Those of us that live and work in the system down here aren't working off the assumption that everything is on the up-and-up because the state has a history of sketchy politics and willing to do some pretty ugly stuff to "win."

So are you okay with the Trump campaign doing the same thing?

[Senator Clay Davis]

For the love of God can someone please just call this thing already? Trump is gonna sue and there's gonna be recounts and he's gonna have his meltdown no matter when it is called. Drawing this out isn't based in anything but keeping ratings going.

[keenan87]

This is just stupid at this point. The argument CNN is making around being absolutely certain Trump can't catch up is silly.. so you are telling me that it was mathematically impossible for Trump to catch up when they Called California within like 5 minutes?

The News networks should be ashamed for milking it this long.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by rubecube

No idea if this was posted already. Don't care. These are my people.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1324375525402517511

It’s early so it took me a few seconds to process this...

GRITTY FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024!

[dsavillian]

Originally Posted by keenan87

so you are telling me that it was mathematically impossible for Trump to catch up when they Called California within like 5 minutes?

Yes


don't get CNN's resistance to calling PA mixed up with the certainty of states like California. Those are two completely different things

[Senator Clay Davis]

Having a fine morning so far

[keenan87]

Originally Posted by dsavillian

Yes


don't get CNN's resistance to calling PA mixed up with the certainty of states like California. Those are two completely different things

How so? They are preaching counting all the votes until its mathematically significant so why wasn't that done for other states?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by keenan87

How so? They are preaching counting all the votes until its mathematically significant so why wasn't that done for other states?

I guess when they say can’t catch him do they mean a gap larger than remaining votes left to count or enough statistical information that’s there is above a 99.5% confidence that the outcome won’t change.

I believe the lack of certainty is provisionals may or may not match mail ins.

[dsavillian]

Originally Posted by keenan87

How so? They are preaching counting all the votes until its mathematically significant so why wasn't that done for other states?

Because PA is close.

California is never close. They call California early because of historical trends, modern expectations, and math.

They probably *should* be calling PA because of trends, expectations and math but they aren't because it's so close. There's also not enough info regarding the split of provisional ballots.

They aren't calling GA because it's also very close and in auto recount territory.

They aren't calling AZ because there are a lot of ballots to be counted and there's no reliable trend to use to calculate the split of ballots. This uncertainty is because AZ mails ballots to everyone, so there isn't the same D vs R split in the mail in returns as other states.

NV could probably be called, but there are a lot of outstanding mail in ballots and they are really slow. Plus if Fox calls NV they look stupid because they called AZ early.



For more info on when/why networks call states, check this out:

https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/ve...f-fff113a260a6

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by keenan87

How so? They are preaching counting all the votes until its mathematically significant so why wasn't that done for other states?

That's a fair question.

Given states like CA, and MT their polling, pre and exit, with historic trends, they knew the outcome prior to a significant amount of votes being cast.

You know rural Alberta is voting CPC in the federal election. You can basically call it the moment the polls close.

That said, a battleground state in the middle of a battle is less certain. They don't want to call it until they're sure.

Keep in mind I don't think Alaska is called yet. I would imagine because it was also ignored by pollsters. Yet, we all know its going to Trump.

It all depends on the variables available, which is more than simply X votes have been counted, Y for Trump, and Z for Biden.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GGG

So are you okay with the Trump campaign doing the same thing?

So why isn't he? Oh, because this process is working in his favor!

I will also add. false equivalency is false. Trump literally has people on the inside monitoring the situation, we don't. Trump literally has a Governor from the State in question that alerted his campaign to "sharpie ballots," immediately after the election ended. Trump is literally suing anyone who moves around this election where there is a hint of impropriety, with the exception of Arizona and North Carolina. Not a single lawsuit launch by Democrats, progressives, or independents in this cycle so far. So your bull#### about Trump doing the same of questioning the process based on the data is, well, bull####.

[devo22]

I have no problem with them being cautious. We all know what's coming, but the amount of mail-in votes is unprecedented and waiting until the results provide a real clear picture does little harm IMO. Better to be safe than sorry.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Having a fine morning so far

You just know, this kills Trump.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by New Era

So why isn't he? Oh, because this process is working in his favor!

I will also add. false equivalency is false. Trump literally has people on the inside monitoring the situation, we don't. Trump literally has a Governor from the State in question that alerted his campaign to "sharpie ballots," immediately after the election ended. Trump is literally suing anyone who moves around this election where there is a hint of impropriety, with the exception of Arizona and North Carolina. Not a single lawsuit launch by Democrats, progressives, or independents in this cycle so far. So your bull#### about Trump doing the same of questioning the process based on the data is, well, bull####.

The democrats have poll watchers in the Arizona counting facilities.

You are making my point.

The democrats aren’t launching lawsuits about potential fraud in Arizona becuase there is no widespread evidence of fraud in Arizona.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Arizona is really not even relevant anymore. Arizona might have mattered if Georgia was gonna be razor thin margin where a recount might matter (like under 1,000 votes), but it looks more likely to be a margin closer to 10,000 for Biden in Georgia. The roles have switched where Arizona is the icing on the cake, and Georgia the cake itself.

[dsavillian]

Follow up to my previous post:

https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/poli...-we-call-races

Q: When is a race "too close to call"?
A: Beginning in 2019, AP’s Decision Desk started the practice of formally declaring some elections as “too close to call.” The vote tabulation in such a race has reached its primary conclusion – all outstanding ballots save provisional and late-arriving absentee ballots have been counted – without a clear winner.

AP may decide not to call a race if the margin between the top two candidates is less than 0.5 percentage points. On election night, AP may not call winners in races for U.S. House if the margin is less than 1,000 votes and winners in races for state legislature if the margin is less than 2 percentage points or 100 votes.

If an election has significant news value, such as one that would determine party control of a state legislature, AP will closely review the race to determine whether an exception to these standards may be made.

In races where tabulation remains active and ongoing, AP will not declare a race “too close to call” unless it is clear it will proceed to or be subject to a recount. That includes races where completing the vote count may take several days. In such cases, AP will describe a race in its news report as “too early to call” – an informal designation that indicates we do not have enough data to make a race call.

[Lanny_McDonald]

And what was my point? There were inconsistencies in the data that were alarming and we should be watching this closely. It gave the appearance of the books being cooked and interference. Questions needed to be asked. I was not the only one who saw it and believed it needed to be addressed. The AZ SoS did the right thing and explained the process the state is following, which is exactly what I and others were looking for. You have to admit that it looks pretty bad when candidate X needs to achieve a ballot grab of Y percent, and each time they dip below that trend a new number of ballots is put into the count? That was a very bad pattern that raised some eyebrows.

[Matata]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Having a fine morning so far

I, for one, welcome our new big tech overlords.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Arizona is really not even relevant anymore. Arizona might have mattered if Georgia was gonna be razor thin margin where a recount might matter (like under 1,000 votes), but it looks more likely to be a margin closer to 10,000 for Biden in Georgia. The roles have switched where Arizona is the icing on the cake, and Georgia the cake itself.

And you know it's going to be a big slice of delectable southern red velvet! :drool:

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Arizona is really not even relevant anymore. Arizona might have mattered if Georgia was gonna be razor thin margin where a recount might matter (like under 1,000 votes), but it looks more likely to be a margin closer to 10,000 for Biden in Georgia. The roles have switched where Arizona is the icing on the cake, and Georgia the cake itself.

yeah it might not matter in the end, but better to run up the score. You know there'll be recounts and legal BS on Trumps behalf, so better to have numbers here.