[News] LeBrun/Dreger - Flames open for Business

[Tbull8]

I would love to just see them sell the UFA's. I won't cheer for losses but at least get the value while you can. If we go on a tear and still make the playoffs then that is great experience for the young guys. If not, then we have a great draft pick. Similar to how we traded UFA Glencross when we had a chance at playoffs

[howard_the_duck]

Go on a heater now, boost the trade value. More 3 point nights, please.

A pre-holiday streak is good news for the value of our pending UFAs. Inevitable that we will regress as the sell off begins.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Here's the graph with the actual data from that article:



That there is what statisticians like to call ‘a cloud of dots’. I'm blest if I can see any strong correlation there. If anything, there is a weak negative correlation – teams with the most playoff wins tend to have fewer than average top-10 picks, whereas the teams with the most top-10 picks have had very little playoff success.

So that particular set of data does not at all support the case that the article tries to make. The author actually looked at the numbers and then rejected them in favour of the narrative he wanted to push.

Top Left - Lots of High Picks with Little Playoff Success: 10 teams - CBJ, WPG, ARI, FLA, EDM, NYI, OTT, BUF, CAR, VAN

One Stanley Cup: Carolina

Top Right: - Lots of High Picks with playoff Success: 6 TEAMS - ANA, NJ, TBL, NYR, CHI, SHS

11 Stanley Cups: Ana x 1, NJ x 3, TBL x 3, NYR x 1, CHI x 3,

Bottom Left: Fewer high picks with little playoff success: 4 Teams - MIN, CGY, NSH, LA

2 Stanley Cups: LA x 2

Bottom Right: Fewer High picks with more playoff success: 10 Teams - TOR, MTL, WSH, BOS, PHL, DAL, STL, COL, PIT, DET

15 Stanley Cups: DET x 4, COL x 3, PIT x 3, STL x 1, DAL x 1 , BOS x 1, WSH x 1 , MTL x 1

I excluded SEA and VEGAS since including them in a view that goes back to 1992 makes no sense.

In the end the way you win is buy drafting well. Drafting earlier in the first round makes that easier to achieve, but doesn't guarantee you anything if you can't hit on late round picks.

But still the best way to achieve success since practically it should make drafting easier when you have earlier picks in each round.

I'd also love to see a "total picks made in the first 4 rounds" and playoff success view like this, because I have a feeling accumulating picks makes it a lot easier too.

[traptor]

I dont think this team will ever commit to a rebuild.

They will sell the UFAs and try to get younger. If they suck they suck but they're not going to commit to the rebuild.
For this reason I dont see them moving a guy like Rasmus unless the offer is so ridiculous you can't say no.

I could see islanders being interested in Hanifin. Flames want to get younger.

I could see a deal around wahlstrom+romanov for hanifin being something both sides would have interest in. Maybe throw in a 2nd.
Fully expect them to make these types of deals.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by traptor

I could see a deal around wahlstrom+romanov for hanifin being something both sides would have interest in. Maybe throw in a 2nd.
Fully expect them to make these types of deals.

I think Hanifin is attractive to the Isles.

Lou may be reluctant to give up on Romanov after trading a 1st (#13 OA) for him only a year-and-a-half ago. But tough to see the cap working if the Flames were interested someone like Bolduc instead. The Isles have less than $1 mil in cap and almost every player on their roster has a NTC.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by traptor

I dont think this team will ever commit to a rebuild.

They will sell the UFAs and try to get younger. If they suck they suck but they're not going to commit to the rebuild.
For this reason I dont see them moving a guy like Rasmus unless the offer is so ridiculous you can't say no.

I could see islanders being interested in Hanifin. Flames want to get younger.

I could see a deal around wahlstrom+romanov for hanifin being something both sides would have interest in. Maybe throw in a 2nd.
Fully expect them to make these types of deals.

I think that can still be a rebuild, just not to the narrow definition of selling all parts for picks.

Rebuilding the core is needed. That should mean no trading picks for the foreseeable future, creating cap space and weaponizing it to accumulate assets, and acquiring picks or prospects to plug into our system.

By doing that we should get the requisite draft capital, including improving our own draft pick value by falling back on the standings, that give us the best chance possible to do that.

While not a tear down, that’s probably as realistic a rebuild as we can expect.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

Cue the Oesterle Norris comeback season.

Can you come back if you were never there?

Can you burn out if you’ve never caught fire?

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I actually think that if we're selling we should look into moving Andersson this season/next offseason.

I think Andersson has a ton of value with his current contact. I don't want the flames to lose most of the value like they did with Lindholm/Hanifin/Toffoli by waiting until his UFA year.

If we're rebuilding, I don't think Andersson fits the window.

I agree that we still need some vets on the team, but I would hope that the Flames take on some garbage contracts and futures like Arizona and Montreal did.

He fits the window because IMO defencemen are at their best from 28-33. It takes them time to become well-rounded dmen. Forwards, especially elite ones, take less time. You look at guys like Morrisey, Montour, Giordano, it took them time. If they got an absolute haul for him sure, but it takes awhile for young dmen to become elite, having Rasmus and Weegar could allow them to be competitive in 3-4 years time. A burn it to the ground rebuild including guys like Rasmus almost guarantees the 7-8 year window before they are competitive. You also run the risk of doing what Ottawa did to Chabot and having to play him so much that you harm his development when you get a good young dman. I would prefer to kee Rasmus so the young dmen are not getting blitzed by the top line every single night.

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by traptor

I dont think this team will ever commit to a rebuild.

They will sell the UFAs and try to get younger. If they suck they suck but they're not going to commit to the rebuild.
For this reason I dont see them moving a guy like Rasmus unless the offer is so ridiculous you can't say no.

I could see islanders being interested in Hanifin. Flames want to get younger.

I could see a deal around wahlstrom+romanov for hanifin being something both sides would have interest in. Maybe throw in a 2nd.
Fully expect them to make these types of deals.

This.


I think Flames have no interest in a full rebuild, want to get younger and are happy to try to hang on to "a few" aging vets to lead the youngsters...and add some aggressive and hard-charging kids with high-end skill to get there.


Doubt very much if a "full rebuild" is in order - and to be fair - lots of teams that have done them fail, so there's no guarantee in doing that either. It's a lottery ball no matter what, but the team has to start somewhere.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

He fits the window because IMO defencemen are at their best from 28-33. It takes them time to become well-rounded dmen. Forwards, especially elite ones, take less time. You look at guys like Morrisey, Montour, Giordano, it took them time. If they got an absolute haul for him sure, but it takes awhile for young dmen to become elite, having Rasmus and Weegar could allow them to be competitive in 3-4 years time. A burn it to the ground rebuild including guys like Rasmus almost guarantees the 7-8 year window before they are competitive. You also run the risk of doing what Ottawa did to Chabot and having to play him so much that you harm his development when you get a good young dman. I would prefer to kee Rasmus so the young dmen are not getting blitzed by the top line every single night.

What makes you think that Andersson would want to stick around in 2.5 years? Moreover the really elite D show signs earlier IMO. Makar, Heiskanen, Fox, Hedman, Dahling, Karlsson, Hamilton all showed signs of being elite in their first couple of seasons in the league.

I'm not suggesting selling him at all costs, but definitely listening to offers especially if we could get pieces that will be a big part of the next core of the team. I just think that his value now, and in the next offseason will be higher than in his UFA year.

[1qqaaz]

There seems to be other attributes of cup-winning teams that are more strongly correlated with success than simply drafting high. This post took a lot of time, but there’s probably still some mistakes.

You can also question the causation, but these traits are common on cup-winning teams:

-Having a starting goalie that was acquired via trade or draft, or signed with no prior NHL experience (every cup-winning team in the past 50 years)
-Having a defenseman who is top 8 or so in the world (every cup-winning team in the past 50 years except maybe Tampa in 2004 but that doesn’t count)
-Having a player who was a top 4 draft pick (29 of the past 30 cups)
-Having a coach with a career win percentage of at least 57% (21 of the past 23 cups, coaching percentage as of the beginning of this season)
-A strong penalty kill, in the top half of the league (9 of the past 10 cup winners)
-Being in the top half of the league in goals against (24 of the past 30 cup wins)
Sadly, the Flames don't have any of these attributes except a good PK (Flames are currently 6th) and Huberdeau being top 3 (edit*).

Comparatively, there are traits that have almost no correlation with winning cups:
-Only 2 of the past 10 cup winners have been ranked among the five tallest in the league. Six of them ranked in the bottom third in height
-Weight matters much more: 5 of the past 10 winners have ranked among the 5 heaviest in the league
-Only 5 of the past 10 cup winners had one or more players who were top 10 in scoring
-The average powerplay ranking for cup winning teams in the past 10 years is only 14th

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

There seems to be other attributes of cup-winning teams that are more strongly correlated with success than simply drafting high.

You can also question the causation, but these traits are common on cup-winning teams:

-Having a goalie that was acquired via trade or draft, or signed with no prior NHL experience (every cup-winning team in the past 50 years)
-Having a defenseman who is top 8 or so in the world (every cup-winning team in the past 50 years)
-Having a player who was a top 4 draft pick (29 of the past 30 cups)
-Having a coach with a career win percentage of at least 57% (21 of the past 23 cups)
-A strong penalty kill, in the top half of the league (9 of the past 10 cup winners)
-Being in the top half of the league in goals against (24 of the past 30 cup wins)
Sadly, the Flames don't have any of these attributes except a good PK (Flames are currently 6th).

Comparatively, there are traits that have almost no correlation with winning cups:
-Only 2 of the past 10 cup winners have been ranked among the five tallest in the league. Six of them ranked in the bottom third in height
-Weight matters much more: 5 of the past 10 winners have ranked among the 5 heaviest in the league
-Only 5 of the past 10 cup winners had one or more players who were top 10 in scoring
-The average powerplay ranking for cup winning teams in the past 10 years is only 14th

I’ve always argued that having an elite dman is more valuable than the top center. Most seem to disagree but almost every cup team has 1. Elite dman can play half the game in the playoffs and often can contain to centers vs top centers dominating a series against an elite dman.

Huberdeau is a top 3 pick. How often do cup winning teams draft their top 4 picks vs trade for them. I bet most draft them. Not all though

I’ve consistently told my buddies who cheer for the oilers that Pk and 5 on 5 are way more important that a good pp in the playoffs. Interesting seeing the results though.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

There seems to be other attributes of cup-winning teams that are more strongly correlated with success than simply drafting high. This post took a lot of time, but there’s probably still some mistakes.

You can also question the causation, but these traits are common on cup-winning teams:

-Having a goalie that was acquired via trade or draft, or signed with no prior NHL experience (every cup-winning team in the past 50 years)
-Having a defenseman who is top 8 or so in the world (every cup-winning team in the past 50 years except maybe Tampa in 2004 but that doesn’t count)
-Having a player who was a top 4 draft pick (29 of the past 30 cups)
-Having a coach with a career win percentage of at least 57% (21 of the past 23 cups)
-A strong penalty kill, in the top half of the league (9 of the past 10 cup winners)
-Being in the top half of the league in goals against (24 of the past 30 cup wins)
Sadly, the Flames don't have any of these attributes except a good PK (Flames are currently 6th).

Comparatively, there are traits that have almost no correlation with winning cups:
-Only 2 of the past 10 cup winners have been ranked among the five tallest in the league. Six of them ranked in the bottom third in height
-Weight matters much more: 5 of the past 10 winners have ranked among the 5 heaviest in the league
-Only 5 of the past 10 cup winners had one or more players who were top 10 in scoring
-The average powerplay ranking for cup winning teams in the past 10 years is only 14th

Huberdeau = 3OA.
Wolf = drafted, Vladar = acquired via trade
If the Flames make the POs this year Huska wil have a career winning percentage of probably 60% And obviously goals against will have to drop.
As soon as they get a top 8 Dman they're set.

[Flamesfan05]

Just window shopping

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Huberdeau = 3OA.
Wolf = drafted, Vladar = acquired via trade
If the Flames make the POs this year Huska wil have a career winning percentage of probably 60% And obviously goals against will have to drop.
As soon as they get a top 8 Dman they're set.

True, I've updated the post.

I believe that if the Flames win the cup, it's going to be with Wolf or some other elite goaltending prospect that the Flames draft and develop in the future.
So his development is of the utmost importance.

The Flames arguably had all of these things during the 2015-2016 season season where they finished 5th last in the league (Hartley only has a 56.8% win rate, but at the time it was over 57%).
Ramo was acquired via trade. Bennett was a top 4 pick. Gio was a top 8 d-man in the world. The PK was 6th.

[Saqe]

The whole premise of that graph is wrong. You can't look for correlations if you are excluding multiple variables. So much more goes into winning playoff series than just picking high, such as management's ability to build a team and the quality of those pick or how lucky you get.

I would turn the entire question around and ask, are teams better off NOT having elite talent (that you generally get with high draft picks) and I don't think anyone would say yes. But having high picks doesn't guarantee anything and Edmonton is the best example, where other variables like team building/management have almost completely negated the "elite" talent they have gotten through the draft.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Huberdeau = 3OA.
Wolf = drafted, Vladar = acquired via trade
If the Flames make the POs this year Huska wil have a career winning percentage of probably 60% And obviously goals against will have to drop.
As soon as they get a top 8 Dman they're set.

Weegar is starting to look like one.

[Spurs]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Weegar is starting to look like one.

Starting to look like a top 8 d-man in the world?

I like him but that seems a little much.

[Sandman]

In 2020-21, Weegar was 8th in Norris voting....

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Weegar is starting to look like one.

He's one of a pile of guys just below the elite Dmen. In fantasy rankings he's not top 50 (Rasmus is 44, 3 ahead of top Dman Nurse). Of course those rankings are offence skewed.

But Calgary has very solid D 1-5. Not that many teams have as deep a D corps. Vancouver's was exposed last game. Hughes - great. Everyone else - not so much.