2021-22 Ski/Snowboard Season

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

No argument, it could be a terrible year. I'd just never expect good turns in December, let alone November.

My rule has always been that if by xmas break if you are skiing in good conditions, the season is on track. I recall a few November ski trips, but those aren't common. December is usually when it picks up. I don't have a good feeling about this season though.

[marsplasticeraser]

Originally Posted by Sliver

It's literally tracking along the lowest possible amount.

That's the lower quartile line, not the absolute lowest possible line.

The lower quartile line means that 25% of the yearly results are below that line. Another way to consider it is that in any given year we have a 1 in 4 chance of actual results being below the lower quartile line.

I'd say that considering this is an El Nino year we are actually doing better than I would have expected.

[undercoverbrother]

Hello all.

I bought some gear at the used sale last year.

All of it was new, I love the skis and bindings.

The boots I like except they are tight across the toe box.

Question:

Is there the ability to punch out the toe box?

If so where would a fella go to do this?

[wwkayaker]

I had my boots punched out by Ski West last year. They did a great job. They punched a bit out at a time and I would ski them to see how they felt. I think return visits for more work was included in the initial price.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by marsplasticeraser

That's the lower quartile line, not the absolute lowest possible line.

The lower quartile line means that 25% of the yearly results are below that line. Another way to consider it is that in any given year we have a 1 in 4 chance of actual results being below the lower quartile line.

I'd say that considering this is an El Nino year we are actually doing better than I would have expected.

Doing better than you would have expected? It's currently terrible. Have you been? If not for manmade snow Louise wouldn't even be open.

Anyway, no idea WTF you guys are talking about. Snow is currently awful. Last year was totally awful as well. Spin that to say you're pleased with the conditions if you want, but you're on an island of ridiculousness with that. This season is currently worse than an average season (let alone a good season). Last year was worse than an average season.

It's not out of line to say it's bad. Because it is bad. That's not me putting any spin on it. This is worse than average. WTF lol.

I mean, even Louise is worried. They have no snow and people are not going because of it. A couple good dumps and they'd be rolling in money and people would be having fun. There have not been those dumps. There is no snow in the mountains. Go look at their live cams. You can see grass on the runs where they aren't making snow. There isn't one speck of snow on a single tree on the entire mountain. It's not snowing there. You can't ride on a hill with no snow lol.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Sliver

It's literally tracking along the lowest possible amount.

That's the lowest quartile. So 25% of years are worse than that line

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

https://skilouise.roundshot.com/ptarmigan/#/

Sliver is right that this is below average and for most people not going to be worth a lift ticket, but it also isn't like... THAT bad for November. The issue with attendance is a combination of the mediocre snow and economic conditions, including the fact that early season "discount" tickets are still a hundred bucks a pop at a time when a lot of people are probably pinching pennies.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

That's the lowest quartile. So 25% of years are worse than that line

Right, so WTF are you talking about? This is way below average. 25% are worse? Okay? So we have two seasons in a row that are well below average, but it could be worse? That's a pretty low bar.

I'm saying it's really bad right now. The chart illustrates I'm right. I've been riding this year. I can confirm that it is indeed really bad and not worth the effort to go.

What is it you're arguing? It could be just dirt? Okay. I acknowledge that it could be so bad and warm they wouldn't even be able to make snow. That doesn't mean we aren't off to a bad - and below average - start to the season. And this bad start is on the heels of a season that was firmly in the bottom 25% of years.

You're talking absolute nonsense for no reason whatsoever. Just look at the basic facts, guy, hah.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by Sliver

You're talking absolute nonsense for no reason whatsoever. Just look at the basic facts, guy, hah.

He's the one using the facts. The only fact in this discussion is that the snowpack is at the 25% level. Anything else is purely anecdotal.

Based on the snowpack, this year is completely within the normal quartiles.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by kevman

He's the one using the facts. The only fact in this discussion is that the snowpack is at the 25% level. Anything else is purely anecdotal.

Based on the snowpack, this year is completely within the normal quartiles.

Hey Einstein. It's well below average.

On what planet does 25% of what it could be mean anything other than we're off to a bad start? 25% fkn sucks, obviously.

Are you guys trolling me? This feels so stupid.

[marsplasticeraser]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Right, so WTF are you talking about? This is way below average. 25% are worse? Okay? So we have two seasons in a row that are well below average, but it could be worse? That's a pretty low bar.

I'm saying it's really bad right now. The chart illustrates I'm right. I've been riding this year. I can confirm that it is indeed really bad and not worth the effort to go.

What is it you're arguing? It could be just dirt? Okay. I acknowledge that it could be so bad and warm they wouldn't even be able to make snow. That doesn't mean we aren't off to a bad - and below average - start to the season. And this bad start is on the heels of a season that was firmly in the bottom 25% of years.

You're talking absolute nonsense for no reason whatsoever. Just look at the basic facts, guy, hah.

You were saying this year was the worst possible. It isn't. On average 25% of the years will have less snow than this year at this time of the year.

Does it suck? Yes, it does. But then everywhere usually sucks this time of the year. Even in good years the good terrain still sucks in November, and often will suck through to January.

I would suggest your expectation for early season snow does not match probabilistic realities of snowfall.

If you factor in that this is an el nino year, then most people are expecting that this will be a low snowfall year all winter long.

I am assuming we will be below the 25th percentile all winter long because we are in an el nino year. I hope i'm wrong, but I'm not banking on great pow days this year.

[Brendone]

This feels like the whole “advanced stats” argument. Team lost and looked like crap, but the underlying numbers were good. Who cares, they lost.

Skiing over rocks and twigs, but the numbers say it’s fine.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by marsplasticeraser

You were saying this year was the worst possible. It isn't. On average 25% of the years will have less snow than this year at this time of the year.

Does it suck? Yes, it does. But then everywhere usually sucks this time of the year. Even in good years the good terrain still sucks in November, and often will suck through to January.

I would suggest your expectation for early season snow does not match probabilistic realities of snowfall.

If you factor in that this is an el nino year, then most people are expecting that this will be a low snowfall year all winter long.

I am assuming we will be below the 25th percentile all winter long because we are in an el nino year. I hope i'm wrong, but I'm not banking on great pow days this year.

If 75% of years are better then this is one of the worst lol.

Three out of four seasons are better than this one.

Last year was bad, too, so we're at two below-average seasons so far.

The vast majority of seasons are better per everything you yourself have said.

Sorry, are you, like, slow or something? I'm not following how you seem to understand the reality of the conditions, yet draw the most bizarre conclusion from the facts you appear to grasp.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Hey Einstein. It's well below average.

On what planet does 25% of what it could be mean anything other than we're off to a bad start? 25% fkn sucks, obviously.

Are you guys trolling me? This feels so stupid.

I know it's not Sliver's thing to let perfectly good stats get in the way of a rant but all I did was provide some context that this year is within the normal range of Lake Louise. Is it a slow start? Yup. Pretty sure I said that too. Is it "really bad"? I guess that depends on your outlook. I personally wouldn't call a 1 in 4 snow year really bad.

I've only been a Louise passholder for 25 years but based on my experience this year is pretty freakin' normal. If you can't bare to ride these conditions in November every 4 years than you're probably right to reconsider getting a Louise pass. Maybe consider one of the BC resorts that isn't even open in November?

I've been out twice and both days were fine. First weekend was a classic Wiwaxy 500, like every year, but with more vert because they even managed to get the gondola open. (Not always the case on Remembrance day.) Last weekend they had a backside run and the weather was pretty nice. Two great November weekends as far as I'm concerned.

I'm sorry that my snow pillow chart has offended you. Go look at Sunshine's if you want to actually see really bad.

[Fuzz]

Ooof, ya, that is low.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by kevman

I know it's not Sliver's thing to let perfectly good stats get in the way of a rant but all I did was provide some context that this year is within the normal range of Lake Louise. Is it a slow start? Yup. Pretty sure I said that too. Is it "really bad"? I guess that depends on your outlook. I personally wouldn't call a 1 in 4 snow year really bad.

I've only been a Louise passholder for 25 years but based on my experience this year is pretty freakin' normal. If you can't bare to ride these conditions in November every 4 years than you're probably right to reconsider getting a Louise pass. Maybe consider one of the BC resorts that isn't even open in November?

I've been out twice and both days were fine. First weekend was a classic Wiwaxy 500, like every year, but with more vert because they even managed to get the gondola open. (Not always the case on Remembrance day.) Last weekend they had a backside run and the weather was pretty nice. Two great November weekends as far as I'm concerned.

I'm sorry that my snow pillow chart has offended you. Go look at Sunshine's if you want to actually see really bad.

But your stats show that 75% of years are better. That means this is a bad year, obviously. And it comes after another bad year. So now we have two years in a row with very bad snow (so far). You just said one in four are this bad. We have evidence that the last 2/2 have been bad.

Are you Charlie Locke or something? Why are you trying to take facts and gaslight us into thinking they say something they do not say?

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Right, so WTF are you talking about? This is way below average. 25% are worse? Okay? So we have two seasons in a row that are well below average, but it could be worse? That's a pretty low bar.

I'm saying it's really bad right now. The chart illustrates I'm right. I've been riding this year. I can confirm that it is indeed really bad and not worth the effort to go.

What is it you're arguing? It could be just dirt? Okay. I acknowledge that it could be so bad and warm they wouldn't even be able to make snow. That doesn't mean we aren't off to a bad - and below average - start to the season. And this bad start is on the heels of a season that was firmly in the bottom 25% of years.

You're talking absolute nonsense for no reason whatsoever. Just look at the basic facts, guy, hah.

My argument is that measuring the degree of suckage is silly in November.

In a 10 year span you probably have:
1 great year
2 decent years
7 years of varying suckage.

I'm saying there is little to parse between that 4th best out of 10 years and the 9th best out of 10. Sucking is sucking.

Of course this is mild hyperbole, but I just don't think it's a significant difference between current conditions and an above average suckage year where you might be able to add Grizzly Gully and Saddleback to the list of open runs. Whoopty frig!


There is probably a more notable difference between the 4th best Dec. 15 and the 9th best Dec. 15, and that's going to inform what January looks like, and it probably is going to be below average for a long time. But then again a lot of years look dire and then turn out to be fine

[marsplasticeraser]

Originally Posted by Sliver

But your stats show that 75% of years are better. That means this is a bad year, obviously. And it comes after another bad year. So now we have two years in a row with very bad snow (so far). You just said one in four are this bad. We have evidence that the last 2/2 have been bad.

Are you Charlie Locke or something? Why are you trying to take facts and gaslight us into thinking they say something they do not say?

I think what we have here is a difference in how we view probabilities.

1 in 4 is very common. You should never be surprised by a 25% probability.

So it's strange you are so surprised by the snowpack at Louise, as it's a pretty regular occurrence.

I don't know anybody who was expecting a good snow year. Starting in July they were saying it was an El Nino year, which is also pretty predictable. We should expect less snow and higher temps. Not a good ski year.

I feel like your baseline expectation is a fairly rare event (maybe it's a 1/10 seasons).

So longtime Louise skiers have said here that your expectations are way off, and none of us are upset by the lack of snow right now, as it's what we expect as normal.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by marsplasticeraser

I think what we have here is a difference in how we view probabilities.

1 in 4 is very common. You should never be surprised by a 25% probability.

So it's strange you are so surprised by the snowpack at Louise, as it's a pretty regular occurrence.

I don't know anybody who was expecting a good snow year. Starting in July they were saying it was an El Nino year, which is also pretty predictable. We should expect less snow and higher temps. Not a good ski year.

I feel like your baseline expectation is a fairly rare event (maybe it's a 1/10 seasons).

So longtime Louise skiers have said here that your expectations are way off, and none of us are upset by the lack of snow right now, as it's what we expect as normal.

Well, I bought my pass in April, so July's El Nino warnings didn't help me.

I'm a long-time Louise local as well. Lived and worked at the hill in 94-95, too, so I think I know a bit about the hill and the snow it gets.

This is a below average year so far. It is coming after a below average year last year.

Go ahead and zen out on the crap snow all you want. Those of us with standards for riding that go beyond fake snow mixed in with rocks are allowed to be disappointed in another season that is off to a very rough start.

Have you forgotten West Bowl didn't even open last year? Tree skiing was mediocre last year? And here we are again with no snow.

Idk, maybe if you just like cruising down main runs this is fine. You are completely out of touch with reality to be perplexed at somebody annoyed at the 13th month in a row of poor riding conditions, though.

[Whynotnow]

Holy hell you guys…

- it has been really warm
- there is barely any snow on the mountains
- this can happen in November, but this is on the low end. It could get better.
- given the fact thought that the El Niño forecast was basically this, it feels ominous to some
- last years ski season was pretty awful and people are concerned about a second very crappy season