Ukraine Presidential Crackdown Violence. Russia Invades Ukraine

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

BBC is claiming that Yanukovych had made the request for use of Russia force and amour in the Ukraine.



Is this the case of Russia throwing Yanukovych under the bus? Or is it Russia using this as a pretense of restoring the president to power? Not sure yet.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...8#TWEET1061124

Probably the second, as well as trying to imply a 'legal' basis for the invasion.

[photon]

I was talking to someone who is Russian today and that was what he was saying, that the rightful president requested the intervention and that the government in power now is a terrorist government and Russia is moving to stabilize and protect people from the illegitimate government.

[19Yzerman19]

Lol. Does the word "terrorist" have any meaning at all at this point?

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by photon

I was talking to someone who is Russian today and that was what he was saying, that the rightful president requested the intervention and that the government in power now is a terrorist government and Russia is moving to stabilize and protect people from the illegitimate government.

Interesting, I really wonder how the average Russian sees this, I suspect much the same.

I asked Pointman, what his contemporaries were saying/thinking but be never answered.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

I agree with your points, but I would also say, that experience can be a huge asset on the battlefield.

Having soldiers that have been unde fire before can make a huge difference.

There is still an inclination to #### yourself, it is jsut easier to control.

Some people (conspiracy theorists?) feel that the real purpose of wars like Iraq and Afghanistan are primarily for training to ensure that if the big one ever comes, we have a military with combat experience.

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by photon

I was talking to someone who is Russian today and that was what he was saying, that the rightful president requested the intervention and that the government in power now is a terrorist government and Russia is moving to stabilize and protect people from the illegitimate government.

Yeah, that's to be expected. Though I'm sure there is differing opinions all over Russia as a lot of Russian's are anti Putin themselves and were engaged (and probably still want to be engaged) in democratic anti government rallies in the past.

Rankles me that some people don't see protest as an effective and necessary tool in keeping government in line, and even recycling it when necessary.

To me there is nothing MORE democratic.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Some people (conspiracy theorists?) feel that the real purpose of wars like Iraq and Afghanistan are primarily for training to ensure that if the big one ever comes, we have a military with combat experience.

Hopefully we don't find out if they are right.........

[Bill Bumface]

Allowing Crimea to vote to join Russia would be like letting Richmond, BC vote to join China. You can't just move a ton of people to an area and then say it's yours. If Crimea was voting for independence, it would be a different situation. This is a segment of population that was placed there by a hostile regime years ago. To allow this tactic to work to expand your territory is a dangerous precedent, and as mentioned earlier would basically allow Russia to redraw the borders in all of the former Soviet states.

[Arsenal14]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

Allowing Crimea to vote to join Russia would be like letting Richmond, BC vote to join China. You can't just move a ton of people to an area and then say it's yours. If Crimea was voting for independence, it would be a different situation. This is a segment of population that was placed there by a hostile regime years ago. To allow this tactic to work to expand your territory is a dangerous precedent, and as mentioned earlier would basically allow Russia to redraw the borders in all of the former Soviet states.

At the risk of sending this thread way off-topic my understanding is that this is more or less what Israel is attempting with Palestine - move enough of your people into the region that you can win the vote. Personally I think Canada should use this strategy to take over Arizona. As long as the voting is done in winter it could work!

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

Allowing Crimea to vote to join Russia would be like letting Richmond, BC vote to join China.

I get what you're saying here but no it really wouldn't. The chinese population in Richmond is what it is largely as a result of immigration in response to Hong Kong's return to Chinese control in the 90's. Basically, that population is there because they wanted to get AWAY from Chinese control. Not all of them (actually a bunch are former Taiwanese and you can imagine how a "let's join China" vote would go with that contingent), but that's the foundation for the immigrant population in Richmond.
/tangent

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by burn_baby_burn

I was just reading an article on the weekend (can't seem to find it now) how the US Military was still by far number one in the world. The only military in the world that can strike from anywhere in the world virtually overnight, and how it can be ready to launch a full scale invasion in a couple of weeks. They have thousands of military bases spread out to every corner of the globe. China on the other hand does not have active military bases outside of its own borders. They have 11 active air craft carriers, campared to one each for China and Russia. Long range nuclear warheads are more than double what China has (not sure what the Russians have, or what the number might be combined with China). I don't think any nation in the world really wants to piss them off.

Sure, I can get with that.

Except these military bases aren't like what the American's had set up in the Cold war where they had heavy formations and equipment and mountains of bombs and shells and bullets and food in every corner of the world.

Right now most of the american heavies are sitting at home in the States and it will take a while to get over to Europe. They have light formations at these bases and those get chewed up quickly in a modern battlefield.

they can launch bombing raids from these bases or from America itself, but the flight time is murderous on its crews and the aircraft themselves and these bases usually only have a day or two worth of ordinance and fuel on site and that's an exaggeration because the calculations are always wrong on that.

America's mode of operation is to bomb the crap out of things while they gather a favorable correlation of forces and supplies, then they launch a devastating punch. We saw that in Desert Storm and Desert Storm two where they built up and built up and then blammo they came over the border in mass numbers.

The Russian's already have that build up well under way and a short distance to move it if they make a move on the Ukraine.

The Russian air defense strategy and equipment is also better then what the American's saw in Libya and Iraq by several hundred orders of magnitude.

If Nato made it clear that they were going to try to push the Russians out. The prudent Russian Strategy would be to hit every nato base with planes and cruise missiles, they would probably also send in their excellent Spetsnaz troops to drop bridges and mine strategic road crossings. On top of that they would move to disrupt communications.

Now part of the Russian SIOP is to use chemical weapons on NATO bases, but they won't go that far because the U.S. looks at any attack using Weapons of MASS destruction as Nuclear.

On top of that the only way that America can get those heavy formations over (Armored Cav, Mechanized Brigades) is by sea, it takes too long to move the equipment and supplies needed by air. If they go by sea then the Russians smartest move would be to go after transport convoys with Subs, and the Russians have really focused on Anti Convoy duties which is what the Oscar type Cruise Missile sub was designed for. The Russians also have 10 available advanced Akula submarines of their improved class that are fairly equivalent to the 688i in terms of quieting and sonar.

If the Russian's feel threatened by a Nato buildup, they'll surge an army group, and they'll mine the crap out of the black sea, and they'll surge their subs You'' see the Russian Aircraft Carrier (which is more of a heavy missile cruiser with a flight deck) and the Ushankov (formerly Kirov) and the Velilky (Nuclear battle cruisers) detach from their current assignments and form a battlegroup to threaten the American's in the black sea.

Given time the American's would win, but pushing the Russians our of the Ukraine and neutralizing their navy could be costly.

[undercoverbrother]

The UK and USA are thrown around a lot in this, but I wonder what Germany's take on all this is?

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

The UK and USA are thrown around a lot in this, but I wonder what Germany's take on all this is?

Not quite global enough for them.

We German's are not all Chocolate and light

[Senator Clay Davis]

I've read of the G8, Germany is the one who would suffer the most economically if Russia gets hammered with sanctions. Lots of trade both ways (oil and natural gas to Germany, all that good German #### to Russia).

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I've read of the G8, Germany is the one who would suffer the most economically if Russia gets hammered with sanctions. Lots of trade both ways (oil and natural gas to Germany, all that good German #### to Russia).

Yeah, a lot of European nations would suffer apparently, and probably wouldn't have the desire to levy tough economic sanctions.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Which of course is part of why Putin is doing this. He's playing chicken to a degree. As TIME points out though, he's probably not going to win no matter what.

At home, this intervention looks to be the one of the most unpopular decisions Putin has ever made The Kremlin’s own pollster released a survey on Monday that showed 73% of Russians reject it. In phrasing its question to 1600 respondents across the country, the state-funded sociologists at WCIOM were clearly trying to get as much support for the intervention as possible: “Should Russia react to the overthrow of the legally elected authorities in Ukraine?” they asked. Only 15% said yes – hardly a national consensus.

The economic impact on Russia is already staggering. When markets opened on Monday morning, investors got their first chance to react to the Russian intervention in Ukraine over the weekend, and as a result, the key Russian stock indexes tanked by more than 10%. That amounts to almost $60 billion in stock value wiped out in the course of a day, more than Russia spent preparing for last month’s Winter Olympic Games in Sochi. The state-controlled natural gas monopoly Gazprom, which accounts for roughly a quarter of Russian tax revenues, lost $15 billion in market value in one day – incidentally the same amount of money Russia promised to the teetering regime in Ukraine in December and then revoked in January as the revolution took hold.

Even Russia’s closest allies want no part of this. The oil-rich state of Kazakhstan, the most important member of every regional alliance Russia has going in the former Soviet space, put out a damning statement on Monday, marking the first time its leaders have ever turned against Russia on such a major strategic issue: “Kazakhstan expresses deep concern over the developments in Ukraine,” the Foreign Ministry said. “Kazakhstan calls on all sides to stop the use of force in the resolution of this situation.”

http://world.time.com/2014/03/03/put...crimea-russia/

[Daradon]

Well, that's encouraging at least.

[Enoch Root]

I think people under-estimate the impact of economic sanctions as well.

If the stock market drops another 10%, and the currency continues to drop, internal support - especially from the power boys - will definitely wane.

Higher interest rates (quite a bit), lower markets, a weak currency, all add up to really impacting the tepid economic recovery that they are currently clinging to.

And there is nothing like unemployment to get the people angry with the government

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I think people under-estimate the impact of economic sanctions as well.

If the stock market drops another 10%, and the currency continues to drop, internal support - especially from the power boys - will definitely wane.

Higher interest rates (quite a bit), lower markets, a weak currency, all add up to really impacting the tepid economic recovery that they are currently clinging to.

And there is nothing like unemployment to get the people angry with the government

Oh agreed. As I tried to say pages ago, unsuccessfully, that diplomacy (including measures like economic sanctions) will probably be the weapons of choice in this, and the most successful.

I know a bunch of people here are focused on might makes right, but that's a bit of a narrow minded view in this day in age. Don't get me wrong, it is a little disappointing that we can't do more militarily. But even if we could, I'm not sure how much it would help anyway. Would it start a civil war? A new cold war? Just marching in and telling Russia to leave could be very risky anyway.

It's an incredibly nuanced situation and just saying 'Obama needs to step up and show Putin who's boss' really adds nothing to the conversation.

[Daradon]

CONTINUED: The only problem is, as was brought up by SCD, Europe may not have the stomach for the necessary economic policies anyway.