GDT: The Alberta Election 2012 - The Morning After - PC Majority Government

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Also, for those interested in such things, voter turnout was the highest it's been since at least 1997. Only a handful of elections since 1979 have had higher turnout, so I'd say turnout was relatively good--close to 54%.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

The last two polls reporting in Calgary- McCall were huge. Kang had 2300 votes before them, and after them, had 3800.

I wouldn't call any riding within several hundred votes yet if there are still polls outstanding.

Well, particularly if they're advance polls, where it's hard to know exactly how many ballots are outstanding. It's one thing if a candidate has a 400 vote lead, and there are two polls outstanding with 350 voters in each. In that circumstance, a flip is highly unlikely. A lead of 300 where there are 7000 ballots outstanding is a totally different story.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

And the Herald has corrected, and is now calling McCall for Kang.

If Forsyth can't pull ahead, that will put the Wild Rose at only 16 total seats, only one of which is in an urban area, and none of which are north of Lacombe. Not what I was expecting.

[Bunk]

^ indeed a huge rebuke from urban voters. Quite astonishing given the polling numbers coming in. A lot of sober second thought in the polling booth I guess.

[kn]

I wonder if the PC and WRP internal polling was showing a more accurate picture than the pollsters. The reliability and legitimacy of the polling industry took a huge hit today.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by kn

I wonder if the PC and WRP internal polling was showing a more accurate picture than the pollsters. The reliability and legitimacy of the polling industry took a huge hit today.

Agreed--and in fact, it sounds like ALL of the candidates had better internal numbers than the pollsters did. Kent Hehr, for instance, appears to have had very good numbers for Calgary Buffalo.

I really wonder what the problem is. No cell phone calls? Calling at the wrong times of day?

It may be that people find pollsters annoying and tend to hang up on them (I know I do) and so their samples, while not biased, may not to be all that robust... I dunno--I'm not an expert. I just know that if this is as accurate as they can be, they likely shouldn't bother.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I'll correct my earlier post: the voter turnout number is still inching upward, but is now the highest since 1993. It's at nearly 55%.

[FanIn80]

This notion that Alberta doesn't want change simply because we voted for a PC majority is ridiculous. I think most Albertans want some form of change to take place. We just don't want to sacrifice our basic rights to get it.

I think today's election has proven that the only thing Albertans value more that fiscal responsibility is our unhindered protection under the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

[kn]

It's 1am. I no longer care whether Forsythe wins.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_Transferable_Vote

Complaints of the system are that it is very complicated, and that with huge multi-person ridings, you would lose the advantage (if one exists), of having a local representative.

STV you have a "local" representative... it's just that local is bigger. However, at least one of your representatives will typically be from the party you support, and one could argue that that effect more than offsets the loss of precision in how local your representative is.

Originally Posted by bizaro86

There are also systems that use large ridings with multiple representatives. So Calgary NW might be 8 ridings, with 8 MLAs, where the highest 8 candidates get seats. Keeps local reps, but also gives a party that gets an evenly distributed 20% of the vote a reasonable amount of representation.

STV, mentioned above, is one of those systems.

[Daradon]

Any word on what turnout looked like?

[longsuffering]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Maybe but at least I'm honest about my strong dislike for the job that the Conservative Party over the past couple of terms and how corrupt and tired that they've become.

This election would have been a chance for them to receive a message that their conduct and policies weren't acceptable and they could have actually been motivated to fix themselves.

Instead they basically got rewarded for it and there is no reason for them to change at all.

Oh but there is reason for them to change. The greatest reason of all. The desire to stay in power. Besides that, I'd like to see what a Redford government does. I happen to think they're in a rather unique position. I don't think voters will necessarily hold them to their election promises if they provide good government. I believe Alison Redford will serve Alberta well representing it on the National stage.

It's make or break for the PCs. Its do or die as a political party. If they're smart they'll recognise Albertans were plenty ticked off with them but elected to vote for (as was earlier pointed out) "the devil they know", but they've likely used up their political capital. Fail now, there's no next time.

They had better heed the attention the voters paid to discussions during the campaign about spending. PC voters and most other Albertans aren't looking for indiscriminate cuts in funding to social programs and especially not to education and health care, but they listened when other Party's claimed they could cut waste in government spending, particularly in Management and Administration. If feasible, the Government should begin with a review of the Civil Service.
Trim the fat but don't throw the baby out with the bath water!

Redford also better have noticed that all Partys and therefore all Albertans, supported plans to see more money socked away for the future. They want their government to start getting serious about the Heritage Trust Fund. Talk about low-hanging fruit. Jump on that Premier Redford.

If I was Alison Redford, I'd be thrilled. As Premier i could govern from the centre. I could co-opt the Wildrose policy that made sense then force Ms. Smith and her Party as far right as possible on every issue. I'd begin streaming government while avoiding the WRP's scorched earth policy (start with simple attrition) to show the voters I'm serious about finding and eliminating waste, all the while governing the fastest growing economy in Canada. Where do I sign up?

[Cube Inmate]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Based on what? That they didn't vote for your party? That is a rather dim view to take of Canada's most educated province.

Have you never spoken to the average voter?

Have you never met a well-educated person who's as ignorant as a tube of toothpaste when it comes to issues of the day?

Any party can appeal to anyone, depending on how a person's experiences have shaped them. I can understand a unionized bus driver supporting the NDP, or even a well-off business owner who believes that earned wealth should be shared. Heck...I might become a socialist some day! If you choose to support the PCs because you want Alberta to be more like Ontario...go ahead and do that.

What I can't understand, and see all too often, is the "average voter" who can't even be bothered to download a policy platform. This voter responds immediately (usually recoiling in fear) when the mass media use scare-words like "ultra-right wing" without understanding anything about that.

I work with and know many highly-educated, smart people. For the most part, they don't want to go near politics because it's just too sleazy, and they do the minimum amount of work necessary to choose where to park their votes.

[TurnedTheCorner]

Originally Posted by Daradon

Any word on what turnout looked like?

According to http://abvoteresults.mastermaq.ca/, turnout is at ~56%, which is the highest in nearly 20 years - since the ~60% turnout in 1993.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by longsuffering

If I was Alison Redford, I'd be thrilled. As Premier i could govern from the centre. I could co-opt the Wildrose policy that made sense then force Ms. Smith and her Party as far right as possible on every issue. I'd begin streaming government while avoiding the WRP's scorched earth policy (start with simple attrition) to show the voters I'm serious about finding and eliminating waste, all the while governing the fastest growing economy in Canada. Where do I sign up?

At the ATA AGM.

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by TurnedTheCorner

According to http://abvoteresults.mastermaq.ca/, turnout is at ~56%, which is the highest in nearly 20 years - since the ~60% turnout in 1993.

There was a theory that a lot of PC voters got out to vote this time as the election was in jeopardy. In previous years they could sit at home because it didn't really matter. That could account for higher turnout. Might sorta explain the skewed poll results too. (Well a little anyway)

[longsuffering]

Originally Posted by SebC

At the ATA AGM.

I've never understood "the teachers are our enemy" way of thinking.

Let's cut corners on educating and developing the future leaders of our province!??

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by longsuffering

I've never understood "the teachers are our enemy" way of thinking.

Let's cut corners on educating and developing the future leaders of our province!??

Well if he's talking about the board, even the teachers would probably agree, they are politicians like alderman.

However if he's talking about the teachers themselves, I agree with you, I say 'no thanks' to that drive by statement.

[Dion]

How did the polls get it so wrong?

Large said the contentious comments by the Wildrose candidates were never captured in polls and other surveys conducted heading into the final week.

“We never got the chance to measure the last week with the Hunsperger and Leech comments,” he said, noting both could have painted the Wildrose as too much of a risk in the minds of many voters.

In addition, he suggested there could have been two other key factors at play that made the spate of surveys miss the mark.

“Strategic voting actually materialized,” said Large, pointing to the Liberal collapse as a sign of a move to the Tories to keep the Wildrose out of power.

And Large said there was also the “black hole of the undecided vote,” who seemingly moved toward the Tories come election day.

Several polls showed that up to 20 per cent of people were undecided last week before voting Monday.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/po...496/story.html

[Dion]