The New American Politics thread

[White Out 403]

I think the Democrats are in for a rude awakening if they choose Clinton over Sanders. A lot of people will risk burning the country to the ground to get real change, even if that change is in the form of Trump.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

I think the Democrats are in for a rude awakening if they choose Clinton over Sanders. A lot of people will risk burning the country to the ground to get real change, even if that change is in the form of Trump.

The best summation of this I've read so far is this. Customer goes to McDonalds...

"Hey, can I have 20 nuggets?"
"Sorry, that choice is not available"
"#### that! Give me 20 scorpions instead"

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

I think the Democrats are in for a rude awakening if they choose Clinton over Sanders. A lot of people will risk burning the country to the ground to get real change, even if that change is in the form of Trump.

The way I see it with Bernie and Hillary is that Hillary's base (elderly, blacks and minorities) will vote for any Democratic candidate in the general election which would be good for Bernie if he got the nomination. Bernie's base (young voters and independents) will not shift their support towards Hillary. Some may go to Trump if he was the Republican nomination while others simply won't bother getting involved with the general election. This is bad for Hillary.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

The way I see it with Bernie and Hillary is that Hillary's base (elderly, blacks and minorities) will vote for any Democratic candidate in the general election which would be good for Bernie if he got the nomination. Bernie's base (young voters and independents) will not shift their support towards Hillary. Some may go to Trump if he was the Republican nomination while others simply won't bother getting involved with the general election. This is bad for Hillary.

Here's the thing about Bernie supporters, or what should be the thing: They are mostly liberals and progressives. If liberals and progressives actually want to vote for the party that will destroy their ideas and strip their rights, good for them, no complaining later on though. But if they're true liberals and progressives, do you think they'll vote against Hillary for Trump or Cruz? This acting like Hillary, who agrees with Bernie on 80% of the issues, is the enemy and voting for Trump, who agrees with 20% of their issues, is the alternative...that's pretty ####ed up don't you think?

Or maybe there's actually a significant chunk of Bernie's vote that is anarchists who just want destruction and don't care who does it, be it Bernie or Trump. Voters who just want the establishment to be destroyed so much, they aren't voting for interests or issues, they're voting for chaos.

[Slava]

I don't follow this as close as many here do, but isn't there still the lingering question of whether Hillary will actually be able to run and not be indicted?

[Envitro]

The problem with your assumption is that you believe that Hillary agreed with Bernie on ~80% of the issues. I'd say she's far more in agreement with Kasich and Trump on 80%, and disagrees on the other 20%. jm2c

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Here's the thing about Bernie supporters, or what should be the thing: They are mostly liberals and progressives. If liberals and progressives actually want to vote for the party that will destroy their ideas and strip their rights, good for them, no complaining later on though. But if they're true liberals and progressives, do you think they'll vote against Hillary for Trump or Cruz? This acting like Hillary, who agrees with Bernie on 80% of the issues, is the enemy and voting for Trump, who agrees with 20% of their issues, is the alternative...that's pretty ####ed up don't you think?

Or maybe there's actually a significant chunk of Bernie's vote that is anarchists who just want destruction and don't care who does it, be it Bernie or Trump. Voters who just want the establishment to be destroyed so much, they aren't voting for interests or issues, they're voting for chaos.

I don`t think that Hillary really does agree with or support 80% of the issues that Bernie does. Hillary is currently riding Bernie`s coat tail on a lot of issues because she wants to try to appeal to and pull some support from his base. She is trying to say the right things but I don`t believe she really cares very much for those issues.

[Nobama]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

The way I see it with Bernie and Hillary is that Hillary's base (elderly, blacks and minorities) will vote for any Democratic candidate in the general election which would be good for Bernie if he got the nomination. Bernie's base (young voters and independents) will not shift their support towards Hillary. Some may go to Trump if he was the Republican nomination while others simply won't bother getting involved with the general election. This is bad for Hillary.

This is correct. Bernie supporters will choose Trump over Hillary. Combined with 40% larger republican voter turn out get ready for a new type of American President. I for one have seen enough corporate sponsored, establishment based presidents in my life time. Its time we saw a true "Change" in the white house.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Slava

I don't follow this as close as many here do, but isn't there still the lingering question of whether Hillary will actually be able to run and not be indicted?

In my opinion there is no serious chance she's indicted.

She's the Secretary of State.

Unless you think the success rate for catching and prosecuting criminal wrong doing in the executive branch is 100% following Watergate, this type of stuff happens all the time.

It's the equivalent of one cop not giving another cop a speeding ticket. It's executive level professional courtesy.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Envitro

The problem with your assumption is that you believe that Hillary agreed with Bernie on ~80% of the issues. 'd say she's far more in agreement with Kasich and Trump on 80%,

That's... not accurate. Not even close actually.

http://presidential-candidates.insid...s-Donald-Trump

[Flash Walken]

How is John Kasich still in this race?

Where is he getting his money from?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

How is John Kasich still in this race?

Where is he getting his money from?

He has a SuperPAC. Why? I honestly don't know who would hitch their wagon to Kasich, but someone clearly believes in him.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Here's the thing about Bernie supporters, or what should be the thing: They are mostly liberals and progressives. If liberals and progressives actually want to vote for the party that will destroy their ideas and strip their rights, good for them, no complaining later on though. But if they're true liberals and progressives, do you think they'll vote against Hillary for Trump or Cruz? This acting like Hillary, who agrees with Bernie on 80% of the issues, is the enemy and voting for Trump, who agrees with 20% of their issues, is the alternative...that's pretty ####ed up don't you think?

Or maybe there's actually a significant chunk of Bernie's vote that is anarchists who just want destruction and don't care who does it, be it Bernie or Trump. Voters who just want the establishment to be destroyed so much, they aren't voting for interests or issues, they're voting for chaos.

Don't underestimate people. There is a number of people who still believe that Trump is a democratic plant in order to disrupt the Republican party, given his close ties with the party and former progressive stances on issues.

The Republicans by the way they are acting towards Trump right now aren't doing any favors in felling the conspiracy theory, in full panic mode and trotting out Mittens.

The fact is that Trump is so inconsistent on the issues, no one really knows what he believes at the end of the day - some think he is pandering to idiots and he might actually be the most liberal Republican in the field on some issues.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

He has a SuperPAC. Why? I honestly don't know who would hitch their wagon to Kasich, but someone clearly believes in him.

That's what I'm getting at. Sure, when there are 10 candidates at a debate John Kasich isn't out of place.

How the hell is he still a 'front runner' at this point?

Who is funneling this guy money?

The way I see, establishment republicans are likely funnelling money into Rubio's coffers which is keeping him in the race despite his apparent lack of popularity.

Trump is I'm sure getting tremendous donor support as well as leveraging some of his professional holdings.

Where does John Kasich get his money though? As far as I can tell, he's not a Rick Santorum 'fillibuster candidate' (that's my term, don't steal it), and he's not a mike huckabee huckster candidate.

Who is bankrolling this guy? Is this the guy that trump is the tip of the spear for? Have been wrong this whole time about Rubio, is John Kasich the REAL dakr horse in the GOP nomination process?

It's playing out like House of Cards. "What? Underwood? How is he still in the game, no one likes him?"

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

That's what I'm getting at. Sure, when there are 10 candidates at a debate John Kasich isn't out of place.

How the hell is he still a 'front runner' at this point?

Who is funneling this guy money?

The way I see, establishment republicans are likely funnelling money into Rubio's coffers which is keeping him in the race despite his apparent lack of popularity.

Trump is I'm sure getting tremendous donor support as well as leveraging some of his professional holdings.

Where does John Kasich get his money though? As far as I can tell, he's not a Rick Santorum 'fillibuster candidate' (that's my term, don't steal it), and he's not a mike huckabee huckster candidate.

Who is bankrolling this guy? Is this the guy that trump is the tip of the spear for? Have been wrong this whole time about Rubio, is John Kasich the REAL dakr horse in the GOP nomination process?

It's playing out like House of Cards. "What? Underwood? How is he still in the game, no one likes him?"

Well the establishment path to a contested convention starts with winning Ohio. So my only guess is they've gone all in with Kasich to win Ohio to block Trump. Maybe they've promised Kasich something to stick around, I don't know. It does seem bizarre, but considering how badly Rubio has tanked since going after Trump (which has been an interesting pattern to watch, candidates who attack Trump falling off almost immediately), Kasich at this point can hold on to some crutch that there will be an establishment rally to him at some point.

Besides it's not his money after all, he doesn't care I'm sure.

[Flash Walken]

You might be onto something, Silver Tongue.

Maybe Kasich is the GOP VP nom to win Ohio?

[HockeyIlliterate]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I don`t think that Hillary really does agree with or support 80% of the issues that Bernie does.

It is hard to know for sure, really, given that, on any given issue, Hillary changes positions as often as a two-dollar hooker.

Whichever way the wind blows, that's Hillary's position....for the moment.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

It's playing out like House of Cards. "What? Underwood? How is he still in the game, no one likes him?"

I think he's run it brilliantly. He was always a long-shot, but his odds have done nothing but increase. The Frank Underwood comparison is really apt; I mean, he got the convention in his home state, he had his state party change their primary rules to winner take all, he had them change to a 'slate' system so that if he does win, he gets to hand-pick all his delegates.

And he's run an extremely bare-bones, localized operation. Most of the states he's done well in are adjacent to Ohio, in part because he can get his campaign workers and volunteers to go to those places to knock on doors, rather than needing to build an operation in those states. He's basically run the opposite approach to Rubio who went all-in on a national campaign approach. The question to me is whether he can win enough that the party would consider him for president, or just VP.

I think in a contested convention, either Cruz or Trump would probably accept the party making them pick Kasich as VP (as long as they could do it in such a way that they could make it look like their pick).

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Well the establishment path to a contested convention starts with winning Ohio. So my only guess is they've gone all in with Kasich to win Ohio to block Trump.

There's that... there's also the fact that should Rubio fail in Florida (but Kasich succeed in Ohio) they'll still be a "not Trump or Cruz" candidate for mainstream republicans to rally around (since I don't figure either of them stick around if they don't win their home state). There's no point in either Rubio or Kasich dropping out until the Ides of March.

Amusingly, I think Trumps best outcome is to win either both or neither. If he wins both then he's effectively either the presumptive nominee or has a yuge delegate lead, if he wins neither then at least the field remains highly divided allowing him to take some winner-take-all states with a simple plurality. Winning one but not both winnows the field making it harder for him to win later and while it pads his lead not to the same almost overwhelming degree.

[Nobama]

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