That reasoning also suggests we should not have built the airport trail tunnel under the runway
Not really the same at all. The tunnel is more akin to building the short stub of a tunnel under the municipal building. Eventually indispensable with a dearth of plausible alternatives. Neither of those apply to a GL deep bored tunnel
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CP's 15th Most Annoying Poster! (who wasn't too cowardly to enter that super duper serious competition)
You're assuming no growth on the other lines, and no planned improvements in frequency (a key driver to better transit usage). This doesn't sound realistic.
A lot of the "ROI" folks seem to be overlooking future growth. Calgary's five-minute LRT frequencies during rush hour are adequate for now, but what happens in a decade when our 1.5+ million urban population (i.e. excluding bedroom communities) gets close to or surpasses two million people? By comparison:
The Skytrain serves roughly 1.5 million people (Zones 1 and 2) and runs as quickly as every two minutes during rush hour
The TTC metro runs every 2-3 minutes during rush hour in a city with 2.9 million people (excluding the rest of the GTA where the metro doesn't run)
The STM metro runs every 2-4 minutes during rush hour in an area with 3 million people (Montreal island plus Laval).
Running the entire C-Train through the 7th Ave transit corridor (or even adding a subway on 8th Ave and maintaining two train lines on 7th Ave) is so incredibly short-sighted and ignorant of growth. Not to mention it creates a single point of failure when someone inevitably crashes into the C-train trying to beat the downtown traffic lights...the probability of which will only increase as more people and cars get added to our roads.
Quote:
Originally Posted by accord1999
With 4-car trains back, capacity will still be higher that what it is now. Peak hourly ridership today is lower than it was 10 years which is how Transit can get away with running 3-car trains without that much problems. The issue about 7th Av capacity is from 2014 before the significant loss of DT jobs and new commute patterns from COVID wrecked growth projections.
Spoiler!
How did Covid wreck the long-term growth projections? LRT ridership is >100% of where it was pre-Covid and we've have a month or two of all-time high monthly ridership this year.
CTV article because the Calgary Open Data portal is down at the moment
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A lot of the "ROI" folks seem to be overlooking future growth. Calgary's five-minute LRT frequencies during rush hour are adequate for now, but what happens in a decade when our 1.5+ million urban population (i.e. excluding bedroom communities) gets close to or surpasses two million people? By comparison:
The Skytrain serves roughly 1.5 million people (Zones 1 and 2) and runs as quickly as every two minutes during rush hour
The TTC metro runs every 2-3 minutes during rush hour in a city with 2.9 million people (excluding the rest of the GTA where the metro doesn't run)
The STM metro runs every 2-4 minutes during rush hour in an area with 3 million people (Montreal island plus Laval).
Running the entire C-Train through the 7th Ave transit corridor (or even adding a subway on 8th Ave and maintaining two train lines on 7th Ave) is so incredibly short-sighted and ignorant of growth. Not to mention it creates a single point of failure when someone inevitably crashes into the C-train trying to beat the downtown traffic lights...the probability of which will only increase as more people and cars get added to our roads.
How did Covid wreck the long-term growth projections? LRT ridership is >100% of where it was pre-Covid and we've have a month or two of all-time high monthly ridership this year.
CTV article because the Calgary Open Data portal is down at the moment
We could approach 2M with either:
4.5 legs (but maybe it’ll even be a full 5 by then!), only the lowest ridership one being in a tunnel
Or
6 legs. Maybe the green line is elevated or not connected. If necessary there is capital available to tunnel the busiest line
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The cost-benefit analysis for a $300M tunnel is quite different then a $2B+ tunnel (that also has a couple of feasible alternatives).
The 8th Avenue tunnel also has been talked about for decades and continually pushed back because it wasn't ever justified, even in 2014-2015 when peak hour demand was at its highest.
Funny thing about the airport runway tunnel, so far it has provide minimal benefit...
Oh... maybe it was built for the long view...
Last edited by para transit fellow; 09-21-2024 at 09:02 PM.
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You're assuming no growth on the other lines, and no planned improvements in frequency (a key driver to better transit usage). This doesn't sound realistic.
There hasn't been any growth in a decade, and 3-car trains at 5 min frequency was being done in 2006 and probably earlier.
Quote:
Originally Posted by boogerz
A lot of the "ROI" folks seem to be overlooking future growth. Calgary's five-minute LRT frequencies during rush hour are adequate for now, but what happens in a decade when our 1.5+ million urban population (i.e. excluding bedroom communities) gets close to or surpasses two million people? By comparison:
Well, at the 1.25M population level the NC was supposed to need a LRT too, but there's absolutely nothing for it. With the current Green Line planning to spend a lot on a tunnel, the farther north like Panorama might not see LRT service until Calgary was over 2M population.
At least for the Skytrain, those high frequencies are needed because some segments can only be served by shorter trains that have limited passenger capacities.
Quote:
How did Covid wreck the long-term growth projections? LRT ridership is >100% of where it was pre-Covid and we've have a month or two of all-time high monthly ridership this year.
From my previous post here https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpo...postcount=4380, the APTA numbers show that typical weekday ridership is still lower than in 2014. Total ridership is comparable or higher due to increased ridership on weekends but that doesn't matter for peak hour capacity on 7th Av. The fact that Transit can run with 3-car trains with the system not falling apart and allows bicycles on during peak hours also supports this.
Anyone who has taken the train downtown in rush hour recently can tell you trains aren’t as packed as they were in the early 2010s. And that’s with three-car trains. The city can increase peak downtown capacity by at least 25 per cent just by returning to four-car trains.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fotze
If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.
Do you think there's a chance of the political calculus in Canada ever changing so that Quebec no longer gets the Quebec treatment?
It would require the Alberta and Sask population to flip flop their allegiances every election. So I think with demographic trends in Quebec become more immigrant and less white and with demographic trends in Alberta becoming less conservative you are going to see a less nationalist Quebec vote hurting the bloc and a more liberal Alberta vote.
Anyone who has taken the train downtown in rush hour recently can tell you trains aren’t as packed as they were in the early 2010s. And that’s with three-car trains. The city can increase peak downtown capacity by at least 25 per cent just by returning to four-car trains.
I think this data fails to recognize the significance of hybrid work set ups. Fridays have significantly less people downtown. So do Mondays. The variance between days is far larger than pre-Covid. Our data collection has not be updated to report on that variance
Anecdotally the 3 car midweek trains are as packed as they were pre-four car train.
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I was in downtown Calgary in August early on a Wednesday. After not working there since before the pandemic (and haven't lived in Calgary in years), I noticed the train, train platforms, and the general hustle and bustle was much less than five years ago, and dramatically less compared to 10 years ago. And that's even with a huge increase in population.
I would definitely say that hybrid and remote work is affecting those numbers. Theoretically this should reduce the amount of traffic and train occupancy, although because of the population increase it might be a moot point.
Felt very different since my working days there though. Much quieter.
There hasn't been any growth in a decade, and 3-car trains at 5 min frequency was being done in 2006 and probably earlier.
Well, at the 1.25M population level the NC was supposed to need a LRT too, but there's absolutely nothing for it. With the current Green Line planning to spend a lot on a tunnel, the farther north like Panorama might not see LRT service until Calgary was over 2M population.
Spoiler!
At least for the Skytrain, those high frequencies are needed because some segments can only be served by shorter trains that have limited passenger capacities.
From my previous post here https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpo...postcount=4380, the APTA numbers show that typical weekday ridership is still lower than in 2014. Total ridership is comparable or higher due to increased ridership on weekends but that doesn't matter for peak hour capacity on 7th Av. The fact that Transit can run with 3-car trains with the system not falling apart and allows bicycles on during peak hours also supports this.
The numbers don't support your statement though. Based on the City's data from the open data portal, monthly transit ridership may have peaked in November 2014 at 8.54 million passenger trips, but annual ridership actually peaked in 2019 with 92 million total passenger trips. Both 2018 and 2019 had higher annual ridership than 2014.
Based on the first six months of 2024, the C-train hit a new record for monthly ridership with 8.8 million monthly passenger trips in March and the system is on track to hit a new record for annual ridership (~93-94 million passenger trips)
Monthly Ridership
Spoiler!
Annual Ridership
Spoiler!
Calgary is a resilient city that has quickly recovered after every economic setback to date. We need to assume that the need for the LRT will continue to grow, which means building infrastructure that's future-proofed from the start of the project.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame
I was in downtown Calgary in August early on a Wednesday. After not working there since before the pandemic (and haven't lived in Calgary in years), I noticed the train, train platforms, and the general hustle and bustle was much less than five years ago, and dramatically less compared to 10 years ago. And that's even with a huge increase in population.
I would definitely say that hybrid and remote work is affecting those numbers. Theoretically this should reduce the amount of traffic and train occupancy, although because of the population increase it might be a moot point.
Felt very different since my working days there though. Much quieter.
It does feel quieter than pre-2015, but people are still piling into downtown between Tuesdays to Thursdays, parkades are still filling up, and restaurants are still full.
It's just no longer the case where everyone gets on the C-train between 7:30-8:45 to get to work or between 3:45-5 to head home; start and end times are a lot more staggered these days. For example, people at my work will often leave earlier than normal when they're in the office (e.g. lunch or 2-3pm) to beat rush hour and then continue working from home for the rest of the day. It also feels like more people are cutting back on coffee breaks, bringing lunch from home, or getting lunch/snacks at off-peak hours to avoid the lunch rush.
Presumably, downtown C-train ridership has been stable or maybe a little less than pre-Covid and all growth is from off-peak and non-downtown ridership.
It also feels like more people are cutting back on coffee breaks, bringing lunch from home, or getting lunch/snacks at off-peak hours to avoid the lunch rush.
I'll vouch for this. I rarely ever go out for lunch while at work anymore; I meal prep at home every Sunday night and pretty much only do this now (and have for many years). The amount of money you save doing this is insane - going out for lunch daily is a massive wallet drainer. Same with coffee, I barely go to Starbucks or other coffee places anymore during the week.
It does feel quieter than pre-2015, but people are still piling into downtown between Tuesdays to Thursdays, parkades are still filling up, and restaurants are still full.
It's just no longer the case where everyone gets on the C-train between 7:30-8:45 to get to work or between 3:45-5 to head home; start and end times are a lot more staggered these days. For example, people at my work will often leave earlier than normal when they're in the office (e.g. lunch or 2-3pm) to beat rush hour and then continue working from home for the rest of the day. It also feels like more people are cutting back on coffee breaks, bringing lunch from home, or getting lunch/snacks at off-peak hours to avoid the lunch rush.
Presumably, downtown C-train ridership has been stable or maybe a little less than pre-Covid and all growth is from off-peak and non-downtown ridership.
Many people have also given up on the trains because of safety and have decided to drive and pay for parking instead. The situation two years ago or so really turned a lot of the aging boomers away from taking the train to the core.
I'm new to taking the train as a regular commute thing and if these trains aren't packed, I wouldn't want to experience what that was like. I take the blue line from Saddletowne to Westbrook in the AM rush and reverse in the PM. The morning trains aren't always packed, but in the afternoon everyone is completely pushed up against each other and we are leaving people behind by Centre Street and City Hall.
I switched to transit to save on the gas and stress of driving when moving to a far away work location, but I could drive and if I wasn't getting on at both ends before things got packed, I'd probably be driving a lot more than I am (currently drive when I have things to carry beyond a lunch because there is no room to bring anything on with you).
I'm new to taking the train as a regular commute thing and if these trains aren't packed, I wouldn't want to experience what that was like. I take the blue line from Saddletowne to Westbrook in the AM rush and reverse in the PM. The morning trains aren't always packed, but in the afternoon everyone is completely pushed up against each other and we are leaving people behind by Centre Street and City Hall.
I switched to transit to save on the gas and stress of driving when moving to a far away work location, but I could drive and if I wasn't getting on at both ends before things got packed, I'd probably be driving a lot more than I am (currently drive when I have things to carry beyond a lunch because there is no room to bring anything on with you).
I am normally getting on at Centre St so that’s probably ideal for not having to be on totally packed trains. Of course, it gets pretty nuts during Stampede for the afternoon rush. The express buses are horrible though, unless you find the start of the bus route and get on then.
Crime is pretty overstated. Not worth driving or paying for parking just because you see some homeless people or drug use. Just as likely to see that driving around too.
The numbers don't support your statement though. Based on the City's data from the open data portal, monthly transit ridership may have peaked in November 2014 at 8.54 million passenger trips, but annual ridership actually peaked in 2019 with 92 million total passenger trips. Both 2018 and 2019 had higher annual ridership than 2014.
I'm talking specifically about the workday/weekday numbers which is more correlated to the peak hour number:
The highest ever reported was 333K/weekday in 2015 Q1.
I am normally getting on at Centre St so that’s probably ideal for not having to be on totally packed trains. Of course, it gets pretty nuts during Stampede for the afternoon rush. The express buses are horrible though, unless you find the start of the bus route and get on then.
Crime is pretty overstated. Not worth driving or paying for parking just because you see some homeless people or drug use. Just as likely to see that driving around too.
I didn't travel during Stampede. And the crime part doesn't concern me. I often take the train outside of rush hour and I think it's more likely to see those things at that time. I don't need to pay for parking if I drive.
But I need to take a few things with me to work most days. Not big or heavy enough to need a car, but enough that trying to hold it all while people are squished up against me (which is the case pretty much every train ride home) makes it uncomfortable and unpleasant.
