The New American Politics thread

[FlameOn]

Sanders is leading with almost 20k votes in Michigan right now.

[calgarygeologist]

Rubio is done. He should drop out before Florida and let the big boys battle it out.

Sanders up by 30,000+ now. He is widening his margin.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I would think Bernie will win but still 40% of Wayne County to come in.

[octothorp]

Yeah and the thing is that quite often late-reporting precincts are usually late because they've got huge turnout to count. 40% of the precincts still to report could easily equal 50% of the voters in the county, and if they vote Hillary by a similar margin as the rest of the county, then it's essentially a dead heat.

[GGG]

Sanders isn't winning by enough in good demographic state for him.

Still a slow and steady Clinton March to victory.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Yeah and the thing is that quite often late-reporting precincts are usually late because they've got huge turnout to count. 40% of the precincts still to report could easily equal 50% of the voters in the county, and if they vote Hillary by a similar margin as the rest of the county, then it's essentially a dead heat.

It doesn't look like the margin for Hillary has increased during the last 10% of reporting (55% to 65% reporting) so I think Bernie's lead is pretty safe. I don't think she will cut into the 30,000+ vote lead that he has.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I'll say Bernie wins by 1.8% when all is finished. Doesn't appear to be enough votes left to make up the gap.

[octothorp]

And Idaho is on the board. I think Cruz is going to beat Trump here.

[octothorp]

By the way, if you aren't following the results on The Guardian's site, you're missing out.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/n...-election-2016

[Senator Clay Davis]

Well so much for a Kasich surprise win, looks like Cruz will get second in Michigan. Sadly looking like a Trump-Cruz matchup as Rubio's tank job tonight should probably seal his fate into next Tuesday's final stand.

[calgarygeologist]

Big chunk of votes just came in for Hillary. Bernie dropped from a 26,000 vote lead to 17,000.

[octothorp]

Down to 170 remaining precincts in Wayne County though. Looks like it'll tighten more but not enough to swing it. Probably within 10,000 by the end.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I think it probably holds around 15,000, still some votes out there for Bernie too. He got the win and he needed it. Still doesn't look good from the math perspective, but he has an opening.

[calgarygeologist]

Bernie is widening the gap again. Back up to 23,000 vote lead and climbing.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I think the polling error here is pretty obvious, Hillary's numbers with Democrats pretty much match the polling numbers, they just didn't factor in anywhere near enough independents. Bernie winning that group 70-28 is pretty much the difference.

It's been called for Bernie now.

[calgarygeologist]

Hopefully Sanders can get 55% or more in Illinois and Ohio and start to narrow the lead that Hillary has in delegates. I think Bernie will be strong in Florida and has a decent chance of upsetting Hillary. Clinton better be careful in the Florida debate tomorrow.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Bernie has little chance in Florida as it's a closed primary so no independent advantage. Illinois and Ohio will certainly be closer though after tonight.

[Harry Lime]

So Hillary takes Mississippi and most of the Southern States, apparently being driven by the black community. I don't really understand why though, as both her backers and her policies won't have the positive effect on that community that Saunders would have.

Lingering Bill Effect?

[Caged Great]

Hillary is at 757
Bernie is at 543

in pledged delegates

Add the superdelegates and it's 1217 to 564.

Despite the loss, she gained 17 pledged delegates.

There are 2751 remaining pledged delegates. She needs only 1166 of them to get put over the top provided that the supers remain.

The only way Bernie comes back is if he wins most states by 10 points.

Most of the remaining contests are closed primaries.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Rubio is done. He should drop out before Florida and let the big boys battle it out.

Sanders up by 30,000+ now. He is widening his margin.

That would guarantee 99 delegates to Trump, The "establishment" will make sure he stays in and are praying he can win his home state.

If Trump takes Florida he could go on a 2 week vacation and still win the GOP by using twitter alone.