[PGT] Painful loss to the Ducks

[Jason14h]

I thought our first line was absolutely dominant.

2nd Line was decent but still getting chemisty

3rd line I actually wasnt impressed with. I know Coleman scored but I don't think they did a lot

4th line was great in limit shifts

I like Andersons aggressiveness tonight - He needs to have the leeway to make mistakes

Our defensive D were really bad today.

And we got out goaltended.

We win that game 7-8/10 times. That still means you loose it 2-3 times.

However, I do not overly like this team. I don't think the D will be able to transition and provide enough offense. I dont think our forwards are defensive enough to play the low scoring style

Its an odd mix/makeups - But thats what this team has done for the past 5 years.

Always trying to address our weakness (D too small, goaltending) instead of playing to our strengths (Speed, Puck Movement from the backend)

I just don't see how this team can succeed (over succeed) with the makeup unless Markstrum is a top 5 goalie and our special teams are both top 10

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by VilleN

How are ppl even talking about Markstrom? The only reason Gibson was 'the better goalie' is because he faced a #### load of shots. When you score only 2 goals on 40+ shots, the problem ain't your goalie.

I thought Zadorov was absolutely awful. I was actually shocked Sutter kept playing him after a couple of those horrendous turn-overs. I fear the wheels may have fallen off of Monahan - a total non-factor, I'm hoping it is just rust given his offseason surgery.

I like Andersson and Hanifin for the most part. I thought most of our players actually played really well. I don't know if it is a confidence issue or what it is, but we simply can't finish. After the second period we should have easily been up 3-1 or 4-1 against the lowly Ducks... but we let them stay in it.

Monahan looked smart, and much more physical than usual, but you're right, he was slow, especially playing with two burners like Mangiapane and Dube. I think it's hard to get on him early. But if things don't improve its going to be an ugly year for him.

[TheIronMaiden]

In terms of role players Lewis is a stud, he moves around the ice much better than I expected.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Monahan looked smart, and much more physical than usual, but you're right, he was slow, especially playing with two burners like Mangiapane and Dube. I think it's hard to get on him early. But if things don't improve its going to be an ugly year for him.

I think most players are going to look slow if they're playing with Dube and Mangiapane.

Looked to me (think SuperMatt said it too), that he was playing F3 all night to let them go hard on F1 and F2.

That might make a guy look slower than he actually is ... more planned than just behind the play.

Thought that line did a pretty good job of cycling and moving pucks, should have had a few goals.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

That may be true at the end of the day. But he's playing appropriate to who he is: a good, sometimes excellent, but not elite goaltender. He's doing his part, in other words. It's the other guys who aren't - the top guys. And maybe you've just given up on that happening, but I don't know why the reaction to top-end players underperforming is to demand that the goalie overperform to make up for them. Give those guys ####, not Markstrom, is what I'm saying.

This is a talent problem or lack thereof. A void which was created by poor trades, a lack of change and a reliance on poor UFA signings for too long. The team is playing the system. The effort is there (for the most part). If you can't score and can't cash in on PP chances, it's not hard to see you need to upgrade talent to expect different results. Depth, which was increased this year doesn't go far enough if you don't have enough game breakers to make a difference in games like this.

If the only acceptable standard for Markstrom is to stand on his head every single night, and will this team to win games 2-1 there is a glaring problem with the makeup of this franchise.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think most players are going to look slow if they're playing with Dube and Mangiapane.

Looked to me (think SuperMatt said it too), that he was playing F3 all night to let them go hard on F1 and F2.

That might make a guy look slower than he actually is ... more planned than just behind the play.

Thought that line did a pretty good job of cycling and moving pucks, should have had a few goals.

I thought that he played well. My comment about his speed was more related to a foot race to a loose puck in the third ( or maybe late second). Nevertheless, if he focuses on positioning and shooting with a mix of physical play he will be an asset. I'm not as worried about his speed so much as his shot.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

Why don't you show me what you're relying on? One would expect corsi and SOG to correspond to wins but I can't find any analysis that bears that out. In fact, much of what I've reviewed indicates the opposite. For example:

https://medium.com/hockey-stats/are-...y-f8f8d16811bf

One thing, it corresponds to regulation wins and ties, but 5v5 corsi won't have any correlation to 3v3 OT or shootout scores, which affect standings. However, since there is no 3v3 or shootout in the playoffs, it's more predictive of playoff wins, where overtime is 5v5.

Regardless of that, over an 82 game season, of the sixteen teams in the playoffs, most will be on the positive side of 50% corsi (and I've read somewhere, though I can't be bothered to find the source right now, that higher event teams are typically more successful if CF% is equal, so a higher CF is more important than maintaining a lower CA).

There might be a team that rode inflated 5v5 SH% to the playoffs (like our lovely 2015 Flames), there might be a team that rode pure goaltending to the playoffs, and there might be a team that rode ridiculous special teams to the playoffs (like the McDrai Oilers), but they're the exceptions, not the rule. Even last year - which was NOT an 82 game season, there was still some visible correlation between score-venue adjusted CF% and being in the playoffs. The teams in the cup final were respectively 6th and 7th in regular season CF% too:



The two teams that probably deserved to make the playoffs, but didn't, were Calgary and Dallas.

Calgary's CF% is misleading - it was a lot lower under Ward and a lot higher under Sutter. They probably ran out of time, but I also think Sutter did some bizarre things like overplaying Nesrerov, injured Monahan, and Ritchie, and underutilizing Bennett and Kylington.

Dallas lost the beginning of their season to Covid, and that probably knocked them out of their spot.

St. Louis making it is bizarre and might be a result of the truncated season (and Dallas' covid situation). I imagine over an 82 game season, Dallas overtakes them.

Winnipeg probably didn't deserve to be in either, but IIRC Hellebuyck had an outstanding year for them. He essentially stole Calgary's spot in the playoff mix.

And the other teams are all pretty closely bunched towards the middle. Thr Islanders had one of the highest PDOs in the league, whereas the Devils were remarkably average.

Philadelphia also had some horrible goaltending from Hart, which is evident in their PDO.

The team which probably should have won the Cup, Colorado, had some other issues (Kadri suspension, IIRC) but also lost to the team with the second-highest CF rate.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think most players are going to look slow if they're playing with Dube and Mangiapane.

Looked to me (think SuperMatt said it too), that he was playing F3 all night to let them go hard on F1 and F2.

That might make a guy look slower than he actually is ... more planned than just behind the play.

Thought that line did a pretty good job of cycling and moving pucks, should have had a few goals.

They have been great together through 2 games, and Monahan being the high man and F3 is 100% planned and I think contributes to people thinking he's "not engaging".

There were a couple of noticeable times where he was about to pinch down to help on the forecheck and you could see him do a double take only to come back out high to help protect and cover.

And the strategy has worked for that line through 2 games.

Corsi For: 72.4% (21 For, 8 Against)
xGF: 82.7% (1.48 For, 0.3 Against)
Goals For: 1
Goals Against: 0

They've been given more cushy minutes (80% offensive zone start) but if they keep that up then I am more than happy with how they are performing as a line.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

I thought our first line was absolutely dominant.

2nd Line was decent but still getting chemisty

3rd line I actually wasnt impressed with. I know Coleman scored but I don't think they did a lot

4th line was great in limit shifts

I like Andersons aggressiveness tonight - He needs to have the leeway to make mistakes

Our defensive D were really bad today.

And we got out goaltended.

We win that game 7-8/10 times. That still means you loose it 2-3 times.

However, I do not overly like this team. I don't think the D will be able to transition and provide enough offense. I dont think our forwards are defensive enough to play the low scoring style

Its an odd mix/makeups - But thats what this team has done for the past 5 years.

Always trying to address our weakness (D too small, goaltending) instead of playing to our strengths (Speed, Puck Movement from the backend)

I just don't see how this team can succeed (over succeed) with the makeup unless Markstrum is a top 5 goalie and our special teams are both top 10

Coleman was dangerous all night, sadly he was playing with Lucic

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Its okay we have Karlsson at home!

We just staple him to the bench for reasons unknown.

And our Karlsson comes with 2 ankles!

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

If they had protected Gio and exposed Monahan they would have also had to expose two more forwards.
Remember it was 7-3 or 8 skaters.

So under the 8 skaters you in theory are going Gio, Andersson, Tanev and Hanifin on the back end plus Gaudreau, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Eat Bread

Exposing Monahan, Backlund and Dube.

Even if you are comfortable with Monahan and Backlund being exposed, are you comfortable exposing Dube?

Not to mention protecting a 38 year old would have been the dumbest thing ever.

Gio was -3 last night in a butt kicking for those keeping score. He isn't Norris Gio anymore and will be done sooner rather than later.

[dino7c]

Markstrom allowed 2 goals in regulation he should have got the win. Other goalie out performs him but to be fair he has the Flames shooting against him.

[BrennyBaller]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

They have been great together through 2 games, and Monahan being the high man and F3 is 100% planned and I think contributes to people thinking he's "not engaging".

There were a couple of noticeable times where he was about to pinch down to help on the forecheck and you could see him do a double take only to come back out high to help protect and cover.

And the strategy has worked for that line through 2 games.

Corsi For: 72.4% (21 For, 8 Against)
xGF: 82.7% (1.48 For, 0.3 Against)
Goals For: 1
Goals Against: 0

They've been given more cushy minutes (80% offensive zone start) but if they keep that up then I am more than happy with how they are performing as a line.

I've thought this line looked pretty good and has been working, but this is a bit of a misrepresentation, as the tying goal was a direct result of the line having a horrible change. I'd consider that second goal as a GA against them. Monahan and Dube may have gotten off the ice, but the goal against is caused by this line.

[Igottago]

Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuck, Lindholm. Its on these guys. The effort will be there under Sutter but if these guys aren't converting the wins won't come. Best players being the best players, the same thing that has been needed the last few seasons.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Markstrom allowed 2 goals in regulation he should have got the win. .

Agreed for sure, Flames goaltending was not the reason for the outcome

Flames had a really strong 1st period, however they have to score....

They allowed the Ducks to stay close in the game

So far, two games (yes really small sample size). The Flames biggest area of concern is scoring

[heep223]

Again the Flames were excellent last night for the most part. Really encouraged by what they’re showing so far.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Igottago

Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuck, Lindholm. Its on these guys. The effort will be there under Sutter but if these guys aren't converting the wins won't come. Best players being the best players, the same thing that has been needed the last few seasons.

It seemed like at least 3 of those 4 had put forth the effort last night. Some of the execution was lacking. They'd give the effort and make great plays just to give Gibson an easy save after everything.

The game would have been a shutout if not for Gaudreau, so he is the last guy I would crap on. I think he really misses Monahan as a dependable trigger man. Something is just not right with Monahan and I suspect it is related to his injuries and surgeries. He is probably playing through a lot of pain I imagine and it affects his drive overall.

Aside from Tkachuk's dumb penalty from the bench, I thought he was doing the best he could. The Flames really need to do something about him getting mugged at almost every whistle though. Most of the time, I am not even sure what he is doing to piss the other team off so much, other than trying to score. The Ducks were constantly jumping on him over, for what seemed to me was practically nothing. Skating to fast towards the goal and stopping before making contact? It's not a crime to try to make the goalie flinch. I think they know that because of his reputation as #### disturber, they can play the refs against him by making him react. After getting glove punch every time he drives the net, it's no wonder that he gets neutralized by the opponent.

And Lindholm was his consistent self. No complaints there.

I can also see why we signed Lewis. They has a great motor.

[Calgary14]

I may have missed this - why did Tkachuk get a penalty for knocking the puck out of the air when he was on the bench and it was already going out of play?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Calgary14

I may have missed this - why did Tkachuk get a penalty for knocking the puck out of the air when he was on the bench and it was already going out of play?

Because you can't play the puck from the bench and it was technically still in play while it was in the air, even if it wasn't over the plane of the ice.

We're just lucky it wasn't a 5 on 3 to both Backlund and Tkachuk.

[Scornfire]

Originally Posted by Calgary14

I may have missed this - why did Tkachuk get a penalty for knocking the puck out of the air when he was on the bench and it was already going out of play?

I'm just going off memory but wouldn't it have been a delay of game against us if he hadn't?