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Old 03-23-2022, 07:09 AM   #4341
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I'm with you on this one, for Putin losing the war means a very good chance of hanging from a lamp post outside the Kremlin with his wife and kids, he has painted himself into a corner that there is no way out of.

The war no matter how it ends has cost Russia all it's standing as a military power and that's the only standing that Russia had, he will be lucky if Chechnya and Syria dont blow up and slip away from Russian influence after this along with the various 'Stans in the east, Russia is broke so it cant buy influence, its army is being ground to hamburger and wont be replaced for decades so he no longer has military power he can flex.

Putin has lost everything that he has slowly built up over the decades, all he has left to throw into the pot are chemical biological or tactical nuke.
Totally agree. Add to this, Putin quite often pulls out the old - "The Americans did it, why shouldn't I be able to do it?"

Put me in the concerned column. I hope I'm being a nervous nelly.
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Old 03-23-2022, 07:16 AM   #4342
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I don't understand the benefit to Russia to using nukes at this point. Just to show they will do it? Everyone already acts as if they will drop them if pushed as it is.
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Old 03-23-2022, 07:20 AM   #4343
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...eady-playbook/

Crazy article on Aleksandr Dugin, a russian propagandist / political theorist. Pretty dangerous stuff!

Edit - other articles available for those that don't have washington post:
https://independentaustralia.net/pol...o-invade,16145

Last edited by calumniate; 03-23-2022 at 08:31 AM.
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Old 03-23-2022, 07:49 AM   #4344
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So that would bring it 15 confirmed and up to 20ish military leadership loss based on European intelligence sources cited by Foreign Policy. That's the highest number of Russian military leadership losses since WWII. Speculation is the war is so unpopular, troops so disorganized, and undisciplined that Russian generals are being forced to the front lines to make any progress where they are easy pickings.

Russians also have 10K+ confirmed dead based on their own news outlets, that number is 15K reported by the Ukrainians and may just be lagging due to body repatriation. So in a month, Russia's likely lost more troops in Ukraine than both the first and second Chechan wars combined and are probably half way to the 26K the Soviets lost in Afghanistan. The Soviets were in Afghanistan for 10 years.

Those numbers are just staggering and Russia can't sustain that level of manpower loss, not to mention the huge amounts of material losses. It's slaughter.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/21...-dead-ukraine/

Last edited by FlameOn; 03-23-2022 at 08:18 AM.
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Old 03-23-2022, 08:21 AM   #4345
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1506623757447749640
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Old 03-23-2022, 08:22 AM   #4346
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So that would bring it 15 confirmed and up to 20ish military leadership loss based on European intelligence sources cited by Foreign Policy. That's the highest number of Russian military leadership losses since WWII. Speculation is the war is so unpopular, troops so disorganized, and undisciplined that Russian generals are being forced to the front lines to make any progress where they are easy pickings.

Russians also have 10K+ confirmed dead based on their own news outlets, that number is 15K reported by the Ukrainians and may just be lagging due to body repatriation. So in a month, Russia's likely lost more troops in Ukraine than both the first and second Chechan wars combined and are probably half way to the 26K the Soviets lost in Afghanistan. The Soviets were in Afghanistan for 10 years.

Those numbers are just staggering and Russia can't sustain that level of manpower loss, not to mention the huge amounts of material losses. It's slaughter.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/21...-dead-ukraine/
Which is one of the reasons I worry about nukes.
when you have nothing left and your future is grim, Putin is the type of guy to take everyone down with him.
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Old 03-23-2022, 08:31 AM   #4347
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Just looking at casualties because the casualty counts are all over the map.


Civilians reported by Ukraine 3360+ killed reported by Ukraine
UAF, NG, Volunteers - up to 4000 killed reported by UN 1300 by Ukraine
Russian Force 3000 to 10,000 reported as US estimates, Russian estimates 657 as of March 21st


If Russia has lost 10,000 and there are questions about the wounded versus killed, its devastating. With Ukraine if its 4000 as estimated by the US, that's pretty devestating as well as there isn't help coming on the ground.



Russia/Soviet Union has always had high casualties in every war they've fought. Mainly because they try a sledge hammer approach to every war and try to power through the casualties. That happens when your strategy is equivalent to a zerg rush, and you have leadership that really doesn't care about body bags vs objections.


Of greater concern of course is that this has lead the Russians to more of a destroy infrastructure from the air or artillary or missile attacks from a long distance away.



To be clear, if Ukraine has lost 4000 troops on the ground, that's still pretty devestating as well and it will grind down the UAF. Another month of this and its likely that the Russians might see a turning point in this towards a better position in negotiations. But at the cost of breaking their own ground forces.
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Old 03-23-2022, 08:51 AM   #4348
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Which is one of the reasons I worry about nukes.
when you have nothing left and your future is grim, Putin is the type of guy to take everyone down with him.
I don't see that. Repeatedly the Russian position is they will use nukes in an "existential" crisis. That to me is if NATO attacks them and they are losing ground inside their country. Hopefully there are still some sane Russian generals left.

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To be clear, if Ukraine has lost 4000 troops on the ground, that's still pretty devestating as well and it will grind down the UAF. Another month of this and its likely that the Russians might see a turning point in this towards a better position in negotiations. But at the cost of breaking their own ground forces.
Clearly Russian ground forces were already broken before the onset of the war based on their performance to date and the amount of losses they've taken. They didn't even have a single general to lead the overall invasion. Once they fully move into Kherson, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol it'll be an even bigger bloodbath.

You gotta imagine the Ukrainians will be able to activate reserves and get them to the front a lot faster than the Russians. Reportedly Russian units are already starving and they can't spin up supply units with new trucks overnight where Ukrainians don't have those same supply line problems. I'd expect lot more losses on the Russian side compared to the Ukrainians in a months time.

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Old 03-23-2022, 09:00 AM   #4349
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Bloomberg reporting Chief of the Presidential Administration and personal advisor to Putin responsible for the Yeltsin-era economic and Putin-era climate reforms, has resigned in protest of the Ukrainian invasion and fled the country. Wonder if and where he's seeking asylum?
https://twitter.com/user/status/1506604722744172546
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Old 03-23-2022, 09:02 AM   #4350
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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch View Post
Civilians reported by Ukraine 3360+ killed reported by Ukraine
UAF, NG, Volunteers - up to 4000 killed reported by UN 1300 by Ukraine
Russian Force 3000 to 10,000 reported as US estimates, Russian estimates 657 as of March 21st
The way you select these casualty numbers depending on who reports them is...odd

It seems to be attempting a different narrative then the current reality on the ground.

Ukraine lost a lot of soldiers the first few days of the war due to Russia's first strike and many being in un-defendable positions. Most of these reported losses from Ukraine are visually documented by 3rd party. Russia leaked a report that their KIA were 12K soldiers and 4K mercenaries dated March 19, showing that Ukraine's numbers are very close to reality.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1506599668347723784

Heck, remember that 40 mile long infamous convoy that was talked about so heavily early on?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1506601245573849095

Fully cut off and encircled as of today. Russians on the north front are in danger of being fully annihilated.

Outside of Mariupol and some areas in the south, Russia is doing very poorly. Even Mariupol despite Ukraine forces running out of supplies, Russia have yet to do urban combat (which would have a very high attrition rate). Kharkiv sits just 40km from the russian border, and Russians have been repelled to well outside the suburbs, with towns being recaptured.

Russia has lost all hope of landing any objective, Mariupol being the only city in danger of falling in the near future. Kherson may even be recaptured in the new 2 weeks.

This is going atrociously poor for Russia and it's only getting worse.
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Old 03-23-2022, 09:06 AM   #4351
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Bloomberg reporting Chief of the Presidential Administration and personal advisor to Putin responsible for the Yeltsin-era economic and Putin-era climate reforms, has resigned in protest of the Ukrainian invasion and fled the country. Wonder if and where he's seeking asylum?
https://twitter.com/user/status/1506604722744172546
Can you shoot the guy instead?
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Old 03-23-2022, 09:24 AM   #4352
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I'm starting to lean in the opposite direction. I think he would have been less likely to use nukes had he taken Ukraine in a relatively quick fashion.

The longer this goes on, the more damage is done to Russia and their image of a strong nation. By all accounts this has been an embarrassment for Russia and I could see Putin getting desperate.

What does NATO have to fear from Russia besides their nukes at this point? Absolutely nothing, and if they're not actually willing to use them then no one has anything to fear from Russia. I just don't think that sits well with them as a country.

Hopefully I'm wrong but desperate times.
I wonder what the response would be if Russia used nuclear weapons on Ukraine? The easy answer is that NATO would then launch a nuclear weapon on Russia but would they? Because then the response after that would be Russia sending a nuclear weapon to London, New York, etc.
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Old 03-23-2022, 09:28 AM   #4353
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I wonder what the response would be if Russia used nuclear weapons on Ukraine? The easy answer is that NATO would then launch a nuclear weapon on Russia but would they? Because then the response after that would be Russia sending a nuclear weapon to London, New York, etc.
The easy answer is actually nato wouldn't retaliate because Ukraine isn't a member of nato.
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Old 03-23-2022, 09:44 AM   #4354
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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch View Post
Just looking at casualties because the casualty counts are all over the map.


Civilians reported by Ukraine 3360+ killed reported by Ukraine
UAF, NG, Volunteers - up to 4000 killed reported by UN 1300 by Ukraine
Russian Force 3000 to 10,000 reported as US estimates, Russian estimates 657 as of March 21st


If Russia has lost 10,000 and there are questions about the wounded versus killed, its devastating. With Ukraine if its 4000 as estimated by the US, that's pretty devestating as well as there isn't help coming on the ground.



Russia/Soviet Union has always had high casualties in every war they've fought. Mainly because they try a sledge hammer approach to every war and try to power through the casualties. That happens when your strategy is equivalent to a zerg rush, and you have leadership that really doesn't care about body bags vs objections.


Of greater concern of course is that this has lead the Russians to more of a destroy infrastructure from the air or artillary or missile attacks from a long distance away.



To be clear, if Ukraine has lost 4000 troops on the ground, that's still pretty devestating as well and it will grind down the UAF. Another month of this and its likely that the Russians might see a turning point in this towards a better position in negotiations. But at the cost of breaking their own ground forces.
Russia has a zillion soldiers but most of the rest are basically untrained reserves. Besides just being cannon fodder - not sure if they'd be of any use in an offensive war.
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Old 03-23-2022, 09:48 AM   #4355
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1506646337856675842

In comparison, in 1968, the deadliest year in Vietnam, nearly 17,000 Americans died.

Important differences:
  • Russia is approaching that number in 4 weeks, not a year
  • America in 1968 had lots of 20 year old baby boomers
  • Russia in 2022 doesn't have a surplus of 20 year olds
  • Population of USA in 1968 was approx. 200 million and growing
  • Population of Russia in 2022 is approx 145 million and shrinking
The Vietnam War, and the 1968 death toll, nearly tore America apart.

What will happen to Russia when the failure of the Ukraine invasion becomes widely known inside Russia?
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Old 03-23-2022, 10:05 AM   #4356
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https://twitter.com/user/status/1506601245573849095

Fully cut off and encircled as of today. Russians on the north front are in danger of being fully annihilated.
I haven't seen independent confirmation of this.

Has anyone?
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Old 03-23-2022, 10:06 AM   #4357
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I wonder what the response would be if Russia used nuclear weapons on Ukraine? The easy answer is that NATO would then launch a nuclear weapon on Russia but would they? Because then the response after that would be Russia sending a nuclear weapon to London, New York, etc.

If Russia nuked Ukraine? I doubt Nato would respond to a nuclear attack on a non nuclear nation. The guidlines to avoid an escalation with Russia would continue.


Of course if Russia went nuclear, the question of fall out affecting all of Europe would trigger a massive crisis.


I think its more then likely that Russia tries to find a way to use battlefield chemical weapons, which would also create massive long term civilian casualties if they use persistent agents.



The longer this goes, the more desperate Putin becomes.
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Old 03-23-2022, 10:10 AM   #4358
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Originally Posted by Plett25 View Post
https://twitter.com/user/status/1506646337856675842

In comparison, in 1968, the deadliest year in Vietnam, nearly 17,000 Americans died.

Important differences:
  • Russia is approaching that number in 4 weeks, not a year
  • America in 1968 had lots of 20 year old baby boomers
  • Russia in 2022 doesn't have a surplus of 20 year olds
  • Population of USA in 1968 was approx. 200 million and growing
  • Population of Russia in 2022 is approx 145 million and shrinking
The Vietnam War, and the 1968 death toll, nearly tore America apart.

What will happen to Russia when the failure of the Ukraine invasion becomes widely known inside Russia?
Comparing this to some of the more recent conflicts by Russia and America
  • America had 4.9K KIA in Iraq almost all of which was lost over two decade of insurgency, 172 killed in the invasion itself.
  • America had 2.4K KIA in Afghanistan almost all of which was lost over two decades of insurgency, <200 coalition troops killed in the initial invasion.
  • Soviets had 14.5K KIA in Afghanistan (which partially led to the collapse of the Soviet Union), most of which was lost over a decade of insurgency, only 1.5K were killed in the first two years of combat.

In a month of fighting, Russia has yet to secure a single combat objective so far in Ukraine and has lost over 10-15K.

Last edited by FlameOn; 03-23-2022 at 10:25 AM.
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Old 03-23-2022, 10:21 AM   #4359
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i haven't seen independent confirmation of this.

Has anyone?
https://twitter.com/user/status/1506339924231995394

https://twitter.com/user/status/1506594877999656963

Of note, mainstream news seems to corroborate these types of stories about 24 hours after the situation occurs and are almost always very delayed. Don't expect independent confirmation outside of Ukrainian sources until US intelligence confirms with 100% certainty themselves.

Reddit's live world news thread and twitter have easily been the best sources of information, with about 10 twitter accounts providing very reliable information from the ground. Kyiv Independent is one of the best sources and usually will not report on something unless confirmed.

There's also a tendency of the media to report solely on the humanitarian crisis situation, which is why we see specially the shelling of Ukrainian cities and the Mariupol siege but not these developements.

There's also a secrecy element to Ukrainian troop movements, to prevent Russians from being able to plan ahead, which is why news like this encirclement are only coming out now, but this was in the makings in the past 5 days.

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Old 03-23-2022, 10:26 AM   #4360
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The easy answer is actually nato wouldn't retaliate because Ukraine isn't a member of nato.
I don't think it's so simple. There's already massive public outcry that we aren't doing enough. That outcry becomes deafening in the event of nuclear escalation.

For sure, deterrence theory has held so far, but the level of stress on that "system" in the event of an actual nuclear escalation has never been tested. Ever. Since 1945. Frankly, it's terrifying.

I don't think it would be automatic like a NATO country, of course, but if we're making odds on nuclear oblivion, they certainly increase a huge amount.
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