Calgary Civic Election Poll #3: The race heats up

[1stLand]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

This is just my opinion, so flame away, but I call BS on this.

How do you openly try to and grovel a deal with your two main rivals and then switch to the other big candidate and get nothing out of it?

Considering Kassam's sketchy business practices, something just doesn't add up here. I could be seeing more into this, but it just sounds odd.

I am sure Higgin's campaign strategist / team / war room isnt stupid.
Alnoor has no supporters to port in the first place, so there is no trade-off. Secondly, any person with half a brain would steer clear of making a deal with someone of Alnoor's reputation.
There would be backlash if Alnoor was given some sort of patronage posting within the municipal government.

I am just surprised that Alnoor didnt ask for the CEO position of The Calgary Municipal Land Corporation (CMLC).

Given Alnoor's history with Real Estate, I figured he would want that position.

[Ducay]

In related news, who is this "Robert Wills" jerk who is running for alderman in ward 6?

I only ask because overnight he threw up about a thousand of his signs along every street in my neck of the woods.

I need to get the vote out against this guy, I can't stand D-bags who litter up the streets like this. *cough*cough* John Mar *cough*

[Tyler]

Did he also try to start a Guinness World Record hug-a-thon that blew up in his face like my potential alderman did?

[Bunk]

New poll out today from the herald:

56% decided, 44% undecided (big number)

of decided
McIver (43%)
Higgins (28%)
Nenshi (8%)
everyone else less than 3%

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Po...990/story.html

This means a two horse race, but a darkhorse in Nenshi that clearly has the most momentum and is the only one to break from that huge pack. This should be enough whereby the media sees him as a contender worth covering, which will increase his exposure to the average politically ambivalent Calgarian.

The hope for Nenshi is that there's a lot of precedent for a candidate to come from behind to win a mayoral race. As Braid points out Edmonton's current mayor Stephen Mandel was polling at 7.8% on nomination day to win when he was first elected and Duerr was a darkhorse candidate as well in 1989.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Br...991/story.html

In 2003 in Toronto current outgoing mayor David Miller was polling sub 10%, way back of huge frontrunner Barbara Hall who was polling in the 45% range and was perceived to have a cake-walk into the mayor's seat. Miller ended up winning ahead of John Tory, with Hall a distant third.

[FireFly]

After speaking with some people at the Nenshi headquarters, they've said they're very impressed with how much momentum he's gaining. Just wearing my button/t-shirt around have garnered a lot of discussion on him and his policies.

[Ducay]

Threw up a new Nenshi sign on my lawn after the wind stole my old one *shakes fist at sky*

[KTrain]

I've got my Nenshi sign on the lawn.

[Tyler]

Me too! I'm on a busy street so I hope it gets lots of views!

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Bunk

New poll out today from the herald:

56% decided, 44% undecided (big number)

of decided
McIver (43%)
Higgins (28%)
Nenshi (8%)
everyone else less than 3%

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Po...990/story.html

I think it's interesting to see that Nenshi is at least getting some media exposure and he's clearly turning heads as viable alternative to Dr. No and Barb.

I also find it interesting that a Calgary Puck poll has almost as many people voting as were asked in the Calgary Herald poll. I know the two polls are completely different and both have major flaws (only landlines for the Calgary Herald poll and an online poll for Calgary Puck), but it goes to show that the race is still wide open.

It's going to be an interesting final month of campaigning.

[Suave]

[QUOTE=Bunk;2675597]New poll out today from the herald:

56% decided, 44% undecided (big number)

of decided
McIver (43%)
Higgins (28%)
Nenshi (8%)
everyone else less than 3%

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Po...990/story.html

[QUOTE]

Someone on this board isn't going to be to happy, time for Hehr to drop out and support Nenshi

[Cscutch]

The funny thing in that poll, I don't think it is in that article but another I read this morning referring to the same poll it said 80% of people responded were going to vote. That makes these poll results strange.

Chris

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Cscutch

The funny thing in that poll, I don't think it is in that article but another I read this morning referring to the same poll it said 80% of people responded were going to vote. That makes these poll results strange.

Chris

Almost everyone who is asked if they will vote say they will, but doesn't necessarily mean they actually will.

[getbak]

500 people polled: With those percentages, it means that 280 are decided, 220 are not.

Of the decided, 120 plan to vote for McIver, 78 for Higgins, and 22 for Nenshi (everyone else, 8 or fewer - totalling 60 people).

So, there are as many people still undecided as the three front-runners combined.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by FireFly

After speaking with some people at the Nenshi headquarters, they've said they're very impressed with how much momentum he's gaining. Just wearing my button/t-shirt around have garnered a lot of discussion on him and his policies.

You're wearing the same shirt as Carter..... for shame....LOL

[Reggie Dunlop]

LOL, there's a Jon Lord meme trending on twitter


http://twitter.com/search?q=%23jonlord1st

[Reggie Dunlop]

"That's not a chinook. Jon Lord is thinking."

"Jon Lord sneezed, so Ian Tyson wrote "Four Strong Winds."

[Cscutch]

Originally Posted by Bunk

Almost everyone who is asked if they will vote say they will, but doesn't necessarily mean they actually will.

I understand that but in general conversation with my friends, family, and co-workers I don't get a feeling that 80% of them would vote... It would just be interested to see where the majority of these calls were made.

Or does anyone have a link for the exact questions asked... Because some questions skew answers.

Chris

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by getbak

500 people polled: With those percentages, it means that 280 are decided, 220 are not.

Of the decided, 120 plan to vote for McIver, 78 for Higgins, and 22 for Nenshi (everyone else, 8 or fewer - totalling 60 people).

So, there are as many people still undecided as the three front-runners combined.

I'm tempted to say that given that, it's anyone's race. But experience tells me that most of those who are undecided end up not voting at all.

It does make my choice easier. Three candidates who have a non-infinitesimal chance of winnig. Out of those, only one good one.

Guess I'm voting Nenshi.

[Slava]

As someone alluded to I'm not thrilled with the results, but in a few ways actually. Of course I'm disappointed to have my friend so far back! I'm also disappointed that so many people are supporting McIver. 42% is really astronomical and I would think that would be hard to screw up!

I do give full credit to Nenshi and his team. I figured that the race for 3rd was a lot closer and that no one had really broken away, but clearly that doesn't appear to be the case. With the ZINC poll I had my concerns, but when another poll comes along to verify things it's hard to refute.

On a totally different topic those #jonlord1st tweets are hilarious! I have no idea who started them, but it's genius pure and simple. I hope he stays in the race!

[Ashartus]

I was disappointed that so many people support McIver too, but given typical low turnout at municipal elections that might not mean as much if his supporters aren't very dedicated. Still, it will be hard to beat him. Maybe the anti-McIver anti-Higgins vote will start to coalesce around Nenshi more now that he's showing signs of breaking away from the pack as the third choice. No offense to Hehr, who I think is a credible candidate too - if he broke away from the pack I'd consider supporting him (and there's still plenty of time for things to change).