Federal Election Called for Oct 19, 2015

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Dion

Probably not and I will admit I said that out of frustration. Thing is I know the work Barlow has done in this region and he's a good man who has represented us well. In the end I had to decide wether I was voting for a national leader or a local candidate. Not liking the Liberal infrastructure defecit platform and the fact he's going to win made the choice much easier.

Considering that you live in a town who's very existence might hinge on whether vast amounts of dollars are spent on flood-prevention, wouldn't you be interested in a platform with a healthy dose promised towards infrastructure?

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

308 had the CPC in a dogfight in Central Nova, but not leading any other riding.

If they win 3, then they are +2 over what 308 predicted.

OK, what I'm looking at from 308 says NB Southwest, TOBIQUE-MACTAQUAC and Fundy Royal as going CPC, but maybe I am not looking at this right

[Nehkara]

Liberals are rampaging through Atlantic Canada... wow... 67% of the vote.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by starseed

Wow. 308 had predicted Acadie-Bathurst in NB to go NDP with 89% certainty. Liberals lead by 121 votes now.

308 predicted the Conservatives take NB Southwest with 73% certainty. Liberals lead by 187 votes, and 10 points.

The polls underestimated Liberal support, or overestimated the CPC/NDP ability to get out the vote.

The number of polls reporting so far is very small, but if the results continue to come in like this we're going to be looking at a Liberal majority.

[killer_carlson]

my mistake.

You are correct.

brain fart on my end.

Apologies.

[dammage79]

Well, looks like Atlantic Canada has spoken. I feel like QC is the deciding province this election. Could be the difference between a LIB majority and government that could have difficulty forming.

[sworkhard]

Originally Posted by starseed

Wow. 308 had predicted Acadie-Bathurst in NB to go NDP with 89% certainty. Liberals lead by 121 votes now.

308 predicted the Conservatives take NB Southwest with 73% certainty. Liberals lead by 187 votes, and 10 points.

The polls underestimated Liberal support, or overestimated the CPC/NDP ability to get out the vote.

308 takes into account the incumbent effect which tends to result in the incumbent getting some additional percentage of the vote share even if the poll's don't show it.. However, the author acknowledges himself that is the weakest part of the model, especially given the ABH movement.

[sworkhard]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

OK, what I'm looking at from 308 says NB Southwest, TOBIQUE-MACTAQUAC and Fundy Royal as going CPC, but maybe I am not looking at this right

NB SW is currently 45% Lib vs 35% for CPC and the CPC are leading in the other 2, so that sounds about right.

[starseed]

Fundy Royal would be a major upset for the Liberals. Solid Conservative riding... but Liberals are leading by a narrow margin right now.

30-1-1 right now. Holy mackerel.

[Swift]

Someone on the CBC broadcast made a good point that the current Atlantic votes can easily be cancelled out by Alberta voting Conservative, so nothing to get excited about right now.

[MRCboicgy]

Quick thoughts - should we have an election GDT and lock this one down?

[Drak]

I got the huffpo ticker up right now.

Thoughts on CBC vs CTV for TV coverage?

[EldrickOnIce]

When you look at ridings like Acadie Bathurst, a riding that 308 predicted with 89% certainty for the NDP, being lead (early) by the Liberals, it's becoming obvious that the NDP may get wiped from the map and the LPC will roll to a clear majority.
*Assuming we could consider these very early results indicitive

[Magnum PEI]

Ridiculous that PEI has four seats now when every Alberta riding is six-figures, save one at 98, 000.

[Cheerio]

Originally Posted by MRCboicgy

Quick thoughts - should we have an election GDT and lock this one down?

I vote for a GDT

[starseed]

Holy frack. 32-0-0

[FLAMESRULE]

Originally Posted by Cameron Swift

Someone on the CBC broadcast made a good point that the current Atlantic votes can easily be cancelled out by Alberta voting Conservative, so nothing to get excited about right now.

Except that a few ridings in Calgary could go Liberal. That's a massive blow to the PCs. It's more of a harbinger of what could happen everywhere.

And now it's 32-0

[octothorp]

Liberals now at +6 over the 308 riding-by-riding seat projections.

[calgarywinning]

Obviously the media is allowed to report while the election and voting is still taking place in western Canada. While being logistically difficult, it would be nice for the voting to work west to east for a change.

[White Out 403]

32 out of 32 seats liberal. Holy hell.