If Trump somehow becomes president... and he has a pretty good shot here... I find it tough to believe the international community takes the Americans seriously. Americans clearly aren't taking this seriously.
Won't be so bad, you'll see Trump more moderate against Hillary. In fact I think he pivots to pick up Bernie Bros is on the way. He's well positioned to make income inequality the theme of the general election. Pretty soon you'll hear a lot less about undocumented immigrants and a lot more about free college and student loan forgiveness.
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Won't be so bad, you'll see Trump more moderate against Hillary. In fact I think he pivots to pick up Bernie Bros is on the way. He's well positioned to make income inequality the theme of the general election. Pretty soon you'll hear a lot less about undocumented immigrants and a lot more about free college and student loan forgiveness.
I don't know, that seems a little optimistic to me.
The white power crowd roughing up the black girl at the Trump rally today are too stupid to understand income inequality, hate those Mexicans, and they sure as hell don't care about student loans.
He'll need those votes!
If he goes off the racism message and starts talking about real things, he could lose them.
I don't know, that seems a little optimistic to me.
The white power crowd roughing up the black girl at the Trump rally today are too stupid to understand income inequality, hate those Mexicans, and they sure as hell don't care about student loans.
He'll need those votes!
If he goes off the racism message and starts talking about real things, he could lose them.
Yeah but we know how rallies and town halls are. The invested and passionate people go and it makes headlines.
But in a general election with 200 milion voters there will be many moderate issues
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I mean beyond the walls and blocking Muslims and bizarre plans to take out Isis even though presidents don't craft the military strategy but merely approve it... Not a lot of substance there is there?
DOJ has just granted immunity to a state department technician who set up the Clinton email server in exchange for cooperation in the email server violations. Classified information was leaked including portions which outlined intelligence procedures and the names of active agents. Not to mention the server was apparently hacked by foreign nations
This is huge since the DOJ is likely pushing for an indictment before the DNC with this move. Lets hope they make it in time otherwise it's going to be serve Drumpf the presidency on a silver platter or at the very least give him a whole lot of ammo to attack her on. http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/02/politi...ent/index.html
If he goes off the racism message and starts talking about real things, he could lose them.
This is the beauty of his strategy though. He at this point could go to the left of Bernie on every single other issue, but so long as he's building a wall (and Mexico's paying for it of course) and stopping Muslims from coming to America (and ultimately removing them), he's got that block of support locked in. He's identified a significant portion of the country who will vote for him on those issues alone, regardless of what else he does.
So I could totally see a massive pivot to the middle or even further to win enough support. He just has to throw in the Wall/Banning Muslims every event to keep that core support locked in, and he can support communism and those people's votes are still his. He's locked in a good 20-30% of electorate with those two things, and they simply don't care about anything else in his platform.
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He's locked in a good 20-30% of electorate with those two things, and they simply don't care about anything else in his platform.
Sorry to keep doing this... But where is the actual basis for your number? Trump has never done better than 35% among REPUBLICAN primary voters. He is nowhere close to having 30% of the ELECTORATE locked up.
Not to mention that you cannot win an election with 30% support. You need 50%, and you need to win the electoral college, including a handful of key states that cannot be won without significant support from certain key swing voter groups.
Let's not fall all over ourselves admiring Drumpf's strategy here. He is clearly the front runner for the nomination, but he hasn't even locked that up yet, and has major flaws that indicate he is unelectable in a general election. He is incredibly unpopular among democrats, and among non-white voters he might as well be David Duke.
I obviously-like anyone-can be wrong, and a lot of prognostications about Trump have turned out to be wrong. I also have made no secret of the fact that I don't think much of Clinton as a candidate. However, I still think the reasonable view is the one that is held by the currently-panicking GOP establishment: a Trump nomination will be a disaster for the GOP, and a godsend for an otherwise-very-vulnerable Clinton candidacy.
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Sorry to keep doing this... But where is the actual basis for your number? Trump has never done better than 35% among REPUBLICAN primary voters. He is nowhere close to having 30% of the ELECTORATE locked up.
Not to mention that you cannot win an election with 30% support. You need 50%, and you need to win the electoral college, including a handful of key states that cannot be won without significant support from certain key swing voter groups.
Let's not fall all over ourselves admiring Drumpf's strategy here. He is clearly the front runner for the nomination, but he hasn't even locked that up yet, and has major flaws that indicate he is unelectable in a general election. He is incredibly unpopular among democrats, and among non-white voters he might as well be David Duke.
I obviously-like anyone-can be wrong, and a lot of prognostications about Trump have turned out to be wrong. I also have made no secret of the fact that I don't think much of Clinton as a candidate. However, I still think the reasonable view is the one that is held by the currently-panicking GOP establishment: a Trump nomination will be a disaster for the GOP, and a godsend for an otherwise-very-vulnerable Clinton candidacy.
Well look at the GOP primary numbers. In Virginia alone it was 5 times larger this year than 2012. I think the GOP (probably driven by Trump, one way or another) base is way more excited this race, and even Bernie has proven to be a flop at bringing out the numbers for the Dems (where numbers are down across the board). You always got to like the party with the most enthusiastic supporters. And I will continue to maintain Trump has silent support at a very high level, even among Democrats, even if I can only use anecdotal evidence to prove it until November. I think a lot of "I'm not a racist but" types exist out there that will, well, be racists on election day.
I think the traditional political approach here has pretty much been consistently wrong in this race, even regarding Bernie too. I guess I'm choosing to believe this is a unique election. Maybe I'm wrong, but I've been wrong pretty much most of the race using the traditional approach, so I guess I've decide the traditional rules simply don't apply this time like they normally would.
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"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
I mean beyond the walls and blocking Muslims and bizarre plans to take out Isis even though presidents don't craft the military strategy but merely approve it... Not a lot of substance there is there?
- abolish obamacare
- challenge china on issues like currency manipulation and copyright
- veterans treatment reforms
- tax reform (flat corporate tax, no loopholes)
- more guns
- less illegal aliens
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Watching the Oilers defend is like watching fire engines frantically rushing to the wrong fire
Last edited by GirlySports; 03-03-2016 at 08:40 AM.
Well look at the GOP primary numbers. In Virginia alone it was 5 times larger this year than 2012. I think the GOP (probably driven by Trump, one way or another) base is way more excited this race, and even Bernie has proven to be a flop at bringing out the numbers for the Dems (where numbers are down across the board). You always got to like the party with the most enthusiastic supporters. And I will continue to maintain Trump has silent support at a very high level, even among Democrats, even if I can only use anecdotal evidence to prove it until November. I think a lot of "I'm not a racist but" types exist out there that will, well, be racists on election day.
I think the traditional political approach here has pretty much been consistently wrong in this race, even regarding Bernie too. I guess I'm choosing to believe this is a unique election. Maybe I'm wrong, but I've been wrong pretty much most of the race using the traditional approach, so I guess I've decide the traditional rules simply don't apply this time like they normally would.
I suppose one would rather have higher than lower primary turnout... But two points on that. The first is that I'm of the view that primary turnout is primarily a function of how closely contested the primary race is, and the GOTV resources that are being directed toward them. In this case, eleven candidates are spending money on the GOP side and only two for the Dems--plus, most people don't really believe Sanders has a chance, so that race is inherently a little bit less exciting.
The other thing is that even among primary voters, Trump is still only getting 35%. Turnout is high, but some of those voters are showing up to vote against him, not for him.
There is a reason the higher-ups in the GOP are not jumping on the Trump bandwagon. They (rightly) see this as a winnable election for them against a vulnerable candidate and (in my view also rightly) feel that nominating Trump turns that winnable election into a landslide of McGovern-type proportions that risks losing them the Senate, if not the House.
Are they right? Well, only time will tell-- but Karl Rove isn't working hard to mobilize the GOP against Trump because he doesn't like his spray tan. It's because he thinks Trump will be a disaster for the party.
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Well look at the GOP primary numbers. In Virginia alone it was 5 times larger this year than 2012. I think the GOP (probably driven by Trump, one way or another) base is way more excited this race, and even Bernie has proven to be a flop at bringing out the numbers for the Dems (where numbers are down across the board). You always got to like the party with the most enthusiastic supporters. And I will continue to maintain Trump has silent support at a very high level, even among Democrats, even if I can only use anecdotal evidence to prove it until November. I think a lot of "I'm not a racist but" types exist out there that will, well, be racists on election day.
I think the traditional political approach here has pretty much been consistently wrong in this race, even regarding Bernie too. I guess I'm choosing to believe this is a unique election. Maybe I'm wrong, but I've been wrong pretty much most of the race using the traditional approach, so I guess I've decide the traditional rules simply don't apply this time like they normally would.
Virginia had a weird republican primary last time where only 2 people got on the ballot.
The republican primary had about 1 million voters turnout. There are typically about 4 million who turnout for the general pres election. Trump got 35% of the vote, so that only translates to 8.75% in a general election that have proven they'll actually vote for him. So basically he won the primary while receiving 8.75% of the vote. Virginia has proven that tea partiers and other crazies can get in on primaries. Tea partiers are good at getting people out to vote and winning elections in primaries where turnout isn't that great. But when it comes to state wide real elections, those candidates don't usually have a chance.
The lack of turnout for democrat primaries is probably due to most people being okay with Hillary as their candidate, knowing she is going to win, liking what Bernie is doing, but not really wanting him to be the candidate. The anti-Trump passion is strong on any body who even leans slightly left, and I"m sure they'll turnout well in the general election. I'd suspect there are a fair number of Republicans who won't turnout if Hillary and Donald are the only choices. The only way Donald vs Hillary is close is if Hillary does something really stupid or some other large scandal comes up, or if she gets arrested I guess!
The other thing is that even among primary voters, Trump is still only getting 35%. Turnout is high, but some of those voters are showing up to vote against him, not for him.
There is a reason the higher-ups in the GOP are not jumping on the Trump bandwagon. They (rightly) see this as a winnable election for them against a vulnerable candidate and (in my view also rightly) feel that nominating Trump turns that winnable election into a landslide of McGovern-type proportions that risks losing them the Senate, if not the House.
Are they right? Well, only time will tell-- but Karl Rove isn't working hard to mobilize the GOP against Trump because he doesn't like his spray tan. It's because he thinks Trump will be a disaster for the party.
Yeah, but do you really think come October these people won't be foaming at the mouth the deny Hillary the White House? They can hate Trump all they want right now, they mostly hated Romney and McCain too. But their hatred for Hillary is somewhere in the top 3 things they hate the most. They might not like Trump, but they'll all rally to him in the end. I don't think his floor is any lower than it was with Romney or McCain, but his crossover potential makes him more of a threat to win. Even if he siphons 10% of the Blue Collar Dems, that could be enough to win.
But it honestly will be a wildly unpredictable race if it's Trump/Hillary. We could see states that would normally never be in play actually come into play. We could see an indictment, we could see Trump getting deposed in lawsuits, we might get even more awesome John Oliver takes. It doesn't appear we'll be getting boring and predictable though.
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- abolish obamacare
- challenge china on issues like currency manipulation and copyright
- veterans treatment reforms
- tax reform (flat corporate tax, no loopholes)
- more guns
- less illegal aliens
His tax plan is very good and fixes one of the major problems in the United States that has been ignored for the past several decades. Fixing what is the worst immigration system in the western world is also a pertinent need. The rest of his platform is largely irrelevant to me.
That's the thing...Trump is just BARELY on track to win a majority of delegates. His super Tuesday wasn't actually super enough to even come close to ending this. There is going to be a 2 week anti-Trump blitz before Ohio and Florida. Rubio is going to spend all his time in Florida. Kasich is already leading in Ohio. If Trump loses those states it's a whole new ball game.
I read an article yesterday (can't find it now) that had a poll of some sort of people voting on Super Tuesday. A very large majority of posters don't actually know about the things Trump has been saying the last 4-6 weeks (and even longer I'd imagine). In the next couple weeks and certainly in a general election it won't be 20% of the population that knows he said these things but well over 90%.
His tax plan is very good and fixes one of the major problems in the United States that has been ignored for the past several decades. Fixing what is the worst immigration system in the western world is also a pertinent need. The rest of his platform is largely irrelevant to me.
His tax plan has been panned by numerous groups on both sides of the ideological divide. Standard for any policy proposal but it certainly isn't met with praise and in fact will likely greatly add to the countries deficit and debt. As with most thing Drumpf, his details aren't really given. He talks about loopholes being closed but typically doesn't specify them. Those that make out the best under his plan are shockingly the ones who don't need the help. He and his family alone would personally benefit by billions of dollars. Most of the GOP candidates tax plans are just dressed up trickle down economics...give a little bit to satisfy the whining masses but most benefit goes to the wealthy the friends of the party. And at some point cutting taxes has to end.
The immigration system being broken is overblown and his solution and things he has said are quite frankly disgusting. Undocumented population is about 3% of the overall population and a great many of those undocumented would be welcomed with open arms so really this is a different sort of 1% "problem".
Quick name the fastest growing undocumented group? hint it's not mexicans or muslims. A wall and registry are not going to work as one moves forward. Unless that wall completely encircles the entire country.
