2016 NHL Draft

[Matty81]

The reason people are higher on Tkachuk now has nothing to do with where the flames are drafting and everything to do with how he and his line have played in the playoffs. Ending the season the consensus was increasingly the big 3 and Dubois but now it seems more and more like that has changed to a top 5 tiered as 3-2. Might not mirror every team's scouting but most of the online ratings seem to have moved that way with a few outliers.

And the mocks of people who don't know the oilers and stupidly think they won't take yet another forward tend to slip a defenceman in there too but we all know that won't happen. Goalz!

Would be great but very unlikely that the oilers trade down with their biggest rivals. And Columbus would be great but would cost a kings ransom... Likely more than most fans would be happy to see the flames pay.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Yet some of them will, it happens every draft. Not sure why you are rolling your eyes on that.

Because the odds are so stacked against that happening. You don't see "super-stars" come out of every draft. You don't see multiple franchise players come out of every draft. You don't see top 15 players come out of every draft. Especially a draft that was called thin just a short year ago, before the hype train really got rolling. All of this build up leads to what cognitive scientists call exaggerated expectation, which unfortunately happens a lot at draft time and leads to much disappointment.

I look at this draft to be very much like the 2013 draft. The hype built up around MacKinnon, Barkov and Drouin was getting crazy. Then there was a shelf with Monahan, Lindholm, and Nichushkin. And then there were three really hyped up defensive prospects in Jones, Nurse and Ristolainen. After that you got into some interesting support players. The talent coming out of this draft was going blow people's minds! Does that sound familiar?

While it is still maybe a little early to completely call, I'll say that draft was a bust, and it was all because of the hype. No super stars. No perennial all stars. No defensemen with multiple Norris trophies in their future. No top 15 talents. There are some pretty good players there, just like you expect each draft, but there is nothing remotely close to the levels being suggested. The same results that will likely come out of this draft and most drafts in general.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

I see it similar to 2013 as well. Barkov is a going to be a top tier #1 centre and Drouin is showing some serious star/superstar potential this year. Wouldn't surprise me if Ristolainen was a Norris nominee/winner at some point, he has massive ability and is one of the better young dmen in the game. Monahan looks like a star. Wouldn't surprise me if a guy like Lindholm turned out pretty star like as well. Nurse still has top pairing potential IMO. Jones looks like sure fire top pairing dman with star upside. Wouldn't rule him out of competing for a Norris later in his career. Domi is showing some star potential IMO.

2013 is a disappointment to you? weird. Some fantastic young players have come from that draft. Definitely a lot of future stars in there. Too early to say there was no top 15 players, can't judge most drafts properly until 5-7 years after. Barkov, MacKinnon, Drouin and Monahan could all be top 15 scorers at some point in their career. There's not many young dmen in the game I'd take over Ristolainen and Jones.

[868904]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

There are 9 names on that list and I'd be fine getting any of them. There isn't a huge separation in talent between any of the group really, except Brown and he's further up the rankings due to size.

I actually think Brown's size has hurt him in the eyes of fans. He put up a similar offensive season to Nylander while playing poorly n the first half. The scouting reports say he has great passing, great shot, great vision, and is a good skater. Sounds pretty skilled to me. Then you watch his highlights and see that said skill.

I think if Brown were only 6 feet tall and 180 pounds, he'd get more credit for his skill, but because he's also big, he gets painted as a big lumbering oak with limited skill. When I watch his highlights, I don't see a guy who gets his points becaus of his size, he barely uses it! He gets his points from his skill which means that when he learns to actually use his size, he will become an even better player.

[Matty81]

People can see that he is a good skater but I think you're right that his size has hurt him a bit, he has about 6 inches and at the start of the season (probably bigger now), like 40 lbs or more on most guys he's playing against so right or wrong people see that as an advantage and have higher expectations. The argument is, yeah, he scored 70 pts, but he's like twice the size of the other kids. (not saying I subscribe to that rationale) Also, he had a very good season, but the Thornton comparisons are ridiculous.... in the same season:

21-53-74
vs
41-81-122

I don't think comparisons matter, mostly something talking heads do, and the reality is the team is unfortunately picking 6th so any pick will have warts. The piece that concerns me about Brown as a potential pick (and admittedly haven't watched him play very much) is when I see a big guy with a size advantage not using it/playing assertively, it makes me think of guys like Greg Nemisz or Joe Colborne, aka unrealized potential and not fully using all the tools at their disposal.

[Vinny01]

Haynes with an interesting article on trading up to the 3rd pick

3 scenarios
6+35+Jankowski/Porier/Klimchuk/McDonald+Jokkipakka/Colborne/Wotherspoon/Ferland
This looks like an easy yes from Calgary but u likely to be worth it for Columbus

6+35+Backlund
This is still probably a yes from Calgary but gets tougher. Backlund is a late bloomer but is really starting to come into his own and is a really valuable player. Backs might also price himself off the flames roster in 2 years and might also be too old for Columbus. They still get to take Brown with the 6th pick so could be a decent move for them

Monahan or Bennett
This scenario we give up a young core piece but the Flames end up with 3 and 6 so Calgary could theoretically draft Puljujarvi and Brown/Nylander but they are giving up a player that is already established on the roster. As for Columbus do they want a 21 year old that needs a big money deal? They did that trade last season with Saad and Monahan replaces Johanssen quite easily. Bennett is cheaper cap wise but less proven than Monny. From a Calgary perspective I hate it. No way would I want them to trade one of their stud Canadian centers for a Finnish winger that has never played in the NHL.


Haynes says the likelihood any of these deals happens is extremely low. With the Leafs and Jets being the only teams in the top 3 that basically said they have no interest in trading the pick the Jackets number 3 seems like the pick people are making fantasy offers for. Me personally I do the first deal all day and call Treliving a level infinite wizard if he pulled that off. The second deal is tougher to swallow but I also gladly make that move because we have 2 solid centers, with a couple decent kids on the farm and Puljujarvi fills a huge need. I say a big NO to the third deal though. I love Monahan and Bennett and want to see both in Flames silks for a long time.

[Erratik]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Haynes with an interesting article on trading up to the 3rd pick

3 scenarios
6+35+Jankowski/Porier/Klimchuk/McDonald+Jokkipakka/Colborne/Wotherspoon/Ferland
This looks like an easy yes from Calgary but u likely to be worth it for Columbus

6+35+Backlund
This is still probably a yes from Calgary but gets tougher. Backlund is a late bloomer but is really starting to come into his own and is a really valuable player. Backs might also price himself off the flames roster in 2 years and might also be too old for Columbus. They still get to take Brown with the 6th pick so could be a decent move for them

Monahan or Bennett
This scenario we give up a young core piece but the Flames end up with 3 and 6 so Calgary could theoretically draft Puljujarvi and Brown/Nylander but they are giving up a player that is already established on the roster. As for Columbus do they want a 21 year old that needs a big money deal? They did that trade last season with Saad and Monahan replaces Johanssen quite easily. Bennett is cheaper cap wise but less proven than Monny. From a Calgary perspective I hate it. No way would I want them to trade one of their stud Canadian centers for a Finnish winger that has never played in the NHL.


Haynes says the likelihood any of these deals happens is extremely low. With the Leafs and Jets being the only teams in the top 3 that basically said they have no interest in trading the pick the Jackets number 3 seems like the pick people are making fantasy offers for. Me personally I do the first deal all day and call Treliving a level infinite wizard if he pulled that off. The second deal is tougher to swallow but I also gladly make that move because we have 2 solid centers, with a couple decent kids on the farm and Puljujarvi fills a huge need. I say a big NO to the third deal though. I love Monahan and Bennett and want to see both in Flames silks for a long time.

The level to which people are overvaluing the #3 pick is shocking. There is no way in hell I would consider trading Monohan for that pick, and even Bennett is a clear non-starter. Centers are much more valuable than wingers, and Puljujarvi hasn't proven anything yet.

I would do 6, 35, and Wotherspoon at the very most. If Columbus wants more, I am fine staying at 6, we will get a vey good player there in all likelyhood.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Erratik

The level to which people are overvaluing the #3 pick is shocking. There is no way in hell I would consider trading Monohan for that pick, and even Bennett is a clear non-starter. Centers are much more valuable than wingers, and Puljujarvi hasn't proven anything yet.

I would do 6, 35, and Wotherspoon at the very most. If Columbus wants more, I am fine staying at 6, we will get a vey good player there in all likelyhood.

I would be willing to go more than 6+35+meh player. Puljujarvi fills such a big need for the flames so it is intriguing. Having said that I agree no way does Monahan or Bennett get included in the deal. Only non core players would be shopped in this deal.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by iloveicedhockey

Are Montreal surprised brown is there at 9 because they rate him much higher, or because they haven't seen any of the many draft rankings that had him ranked between 8 and 15?

I think Brown is top 8 for some teams and much lower for others. So the teams that have him high will be surprised if drops out of the top 8.

[Enoch Root]

Yeah, the 3rd proposal is an absolute non-starter.

Even the others are too much.

Let's say they want Jankowski and Ferland.

So you're giving up Tkachuk maybe, + the team's 2nd pick, + Jankowski, + Ferland for a winger.

If that winger is Gaudreau (totay's Gaudreau), then sure. But that's way too much to pay for Puljujarvi.

[Ashasx]

Matthews looks a lot better at the WC than Eichel did last year.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by 868904

I actually think Brown's size has hurt him in the eyes of fans. He put up a similar offensive season to Nylander while playing poorly n the first half. The scouting reports say he has great passing, great shot, great vision, and is a good skater. Sounds pretty skilled to me. Then you watch his highlights and see that said skill.

I think if Brown were only 6 feet tall and 180 pounds, he'd get more credit for his skill, but because he's also big, he gets painted as a big lumbering oak with limited skill. When I watch his highlights, I don't see a guy who gets his points becaus of his size, he barely uses it! He gets his points from his skill which means that when he learns to actually use his size, he will become an even better player.

He is good, but I don't think he's 1st line material on a good team. If you add a few goals and about 10-15 assists to Colborne this year, around a 50-60 point guy is what I think his upside is eventually. That's pretty good. The other forwards that I listed have more dynamic skill (Nylander/Jost/Keller) and would be more "dangerous" when they have the puck. The thing needed to be weighed mostly has to do with whether one thinks that Brown's slightly inferior raw offensive skill is buoyed by his massive size.

Honestly if the Flames took Brown at 6, I'd be fine with that because I can understand why they went in that direction. It's not a situation like the Canucks a couple years ago when they took Virtanen at 6 when they could have had Ehlers/Nylander/Ritchie, all of whom would have been better picks for their team moving forward. It would be like the Flames taking McLeod this year at 6.

The interesting thing having the best of the second tier picks after the top 5 is that it gives the Flames options. If they luck out and the Oilers/Canucks do something stupid, which is possible, then they will get one of the top tier guys. If not, then if they have 3-4 guys on their list that are more or less equal, why not trade down to 8 or 9 and pick up another pick (38/39) for your trouble. I could easily see any of the 5 D-men being ranked in any order, because they are all slightly different from one another and all have different skill sets. Personally, I'd rank them Sergachev, Chychrun/Bean, McAvoy, Juolevi, but I can understand any of the alternate perspectives on them. Having options is a good thing regardless.

[iloveicedhockey]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I think Brown is top 8 for some teams and much lower for others. So the teams that have him high will be surprised if drops out of the top 8.

I'd say they'd be pleased, not surprised based on the majority of rankings. I'd like to look back in 3 or 4 years and compare Brown to Keller as both players are being judged positively and negatively based on their height. I think it's more likely they both end up fulfilling potential than not.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by iloveicedhockey

I'd say they'd be pleased, not surprised based on the majority of rankings.

Well I don't think the teams put much stock into ISS, CSS, Redline, etc rankings. The only ranking that they trust and have faith in is their own. I think all the teams are going to realize that Brown is a wildcard that could go crazy high because of his size, skill, skating combo and the fact he plays that valuable centre position.

So if you're a team that has Brown solidly in your top 6 and think he's a guy that should be real high on most teams lists then I think you'd be surprised if he's there at 9 or 10. Anyways that was my thought process when I made that comment.

I think we're going to hear the familiar phrase, "we were surprised he was there, we had him higher on our rankings" quite a bit this draft in the 4-20 range. Some teams in the 7-10 range are going to get guys they had top 5-6. Some teams in the teens are going to get guys they had top 10.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well I don't think the teams put much stock into ISS, CSS, Redline, etc rankings. The only ranking that they trust and have faith in is their own. I think all the teams are going to realize that Brown is a wildcard that could go crazy high because of his size, skill, skating combo and the fact he plays that valuable centre position.

So if you're a team that has Brown solidly in your top 6 and think he's a guy that should be real high on most teams lists then I think you'd be surprised if he's there at 9 or 10. Anyways that was my thought process when I made that comment.

I think we're going to hear the familiar phrase, "we were surprised he was there, we had him higher on our rankings" quite a bit this draft in the 4-20 range. Some teams in the 7-10 range are going to get guys they had top 5-6. Some teams in the teens are going to get guys they had top 10.

I agree. Everything past five, you can toss up the cards in the air at that point. All it takes is one team to value player X for them to jump from 15 to 6 or 7 etc. There is no clear delineation between any of them. Just depends largely on what you need and what style of player you're wanting to deploy.

[GranteedEV]

Handedness aside, if you guys could draft:

Jakub Voracek
Keith Yandle
Chris Kunitz (prime)
Tyler Johnson
Andrei Markov (prime)
Ryan Kesler
Marc-Eduoard Vlasic
Travis Hamonic
Ondrej Palat
Mike Richards (prime)
Alexander Edler
TJ Oshie

Who would be your preference and in what order?

I will PM you the results.

[Erratik]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Handedness aside, if you guys could draft:

Jakub Voracek
Keith Yandle
Chris Kunitz (prime)
Tyler Johnson
Andrei Markov (prime)
Ryan Kesler
Marc-Eduoard Vlasic
Travis Hamonic
Ondrej Palat
Mike Richards (prime)
Alexander Edler

Who would be your preference and in what order?

I won't do the whole list, but I would probably go Markov first. Living in Montreal, I have watched him his whole career and he was a legit #1 defenseman before the injuries. That is more valuable to me than even Voracek or Johnson.

[Caged Great]

Markov --> Voracek --> Vlasic --> Richards --> Johnson --> Yandle --> Kesler --> Palat --> Edler --> Kunitz --> Hamonic

[Ashasx]

80 point Mike Richards was a very unique player

[iloveicedhockey]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well I don't think the teams put much stock into ISS, CSS, Redline, etc rankings. The only ranking that they trust and have faith in is their own. I think all the teams are going to realize that Brown is a wildcard that could go crazy high because of his size, skill, skating combo and the fact he plays that valuable centre position.

So if you're a team that has Brown solidly in your top 6 and think he's a guy that should be real high on most teams lists then I think you'd be surprised if he's there at 9 or 10. Anyways that was my thought process when I made that comment.

I think we're going to hear the familiar phrase, "we were surprised he was there, we had him higher on our rankings" quite a bit this draft in the 4-20 range. Some teams in the 7-10 range are going to get guys they had top 5-6. Some teams in the teens are going to get guys they had top 10.

I don't really buy it. If Arizona at 7 picked, for example, Jost, they would've expected him to be available there and to say they put no stock into external rankings when it comes to how they think other teams will pick is incorrect. I agree that obviously teams have their own rankings completely independent from what anyone else thinks but they don't expect the other team's lists to match their own. Yes they may say they were surprised that the other teams didn't rank a player higher, and that would be true but they can't say they'd be surprised to get a player ranked by all and sundry at a point in the draft where they were expected to go.

Edit: I am coming round to the Brown pick, though. If he was using his size to get his points you could say what you see is what you get but as he hasn't been, his ceiling and room for improvement is high.