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Old 03-13-2017, 01:47 PM   #4081
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:01 PM   #4082
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:04 PM   #4083
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Shame Cecil, Shame.
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:06 PM   #4084
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So long as the goaltender is not injured and is playing well, I don't see why a goalie can't play 70+ games and not suffer in play in that season.

From what I gather though, goalies who play a ton typically burn out/get injured the following season or have a shorter career. There are some outliers like Brodeur but it's not common. I don't care who you are and how bendy you are, but the mechanics of the butterfly is extremely hard on your body and will take its toll.

Basically, like many players going through the Oilers meat grinder, the overall development of the player isn't looked at and it will turn on them in regards to Talbot. I just don't think it'll be this year.

That being said, he's a goaltender who doesn't handle net crashing particularly well and has difficulty finding the puck 5 feet in with traffic. I don't find him to be a very good battler. Reminds me of poor man's in-his-prime-Luongo. Very good first save goaltender, but playoffs might be a struggle for him.
Oh its brutal, just talk to any retired goalie. They tear the hell out of their knees.
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:17 PM   #4085
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So long as the goaltender is not injured and is playing well, I don't see why a goalie can't play 70+ games and not suffer in play in that season.
This was true 15-years ago. It is no longer true today.

NHL goalies typically play only 60-65 games in a season for good reason, and Stanley Cup Championship teams more often than not have won on the back of a reasonably well rested goalie for the past decade.
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:20 PM   #4086
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Kiprusoff is a good example.

He came over mid-season to the Flames and played lights out.

Next year he played a billion games and was lights out but the numbers did decline (won the Vezina).

He was good the next year but again the numbers declined.

After those three years he had two really good years but was mainly average for the rest of his career.

Seems like 60-69 is the range you are ok to land in without impacting yourself (unless you are Brodeur)
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Old 03-13-2017, 03:45 PM   #4087
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Kiprusoff is a good example.

He came over mid-season to the Flames and played lights out.

Next year he played a billion games and was lights out but the numbers did decline (won the Vezina).

He was good the next year but again the numbers declined.

After those three years he had two really good years but was mainly average for the rest of his career.

Seems like 60-69 is the range you are ok to land in without impacting yourself (unless you are Brodeur)
He was the winningest goalie in over a decade and held that title till he retired. That doesn't just happen in 2 lights out seasons and 3 reasonably good seasons. He was much better than average.
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Old 03-13-2017, 03:55 PM   #4088
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He was the winningest goalie in over a decade and held that title till he retired. That doesn't just happen in 2 lights out seasons and 3 reasonably good seasons. He was much better than average.
I agree. But the point being made here should be that as good as Kiprusoff was, by the time the playoffs started he was clearly being stretched to his limits.

It doesn't matter how good a goalie is. Every one has a threshold of work past which point their play will deteriorate. For most goalies that seems to be around 80 games. For a handful that might extend to 90 games. For Martin Brodeur in his prime it approached 100.

The way the position is played today necessitates sufficient rest for a goalie to provide the best assurance that he will still be within his threshold by the time of the SCF. Unless Cam Talbot is the next Martin Brodeur, he will hit that threshold sometime in the first or second round.
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Old 03-13-2017, 03:55 PM   #4089
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Yeah but 29 teams don't win the Cup every season. If you look at things that way I think you can find faulty conclusions.
I chiefly looked at the teams' record in the first two rounds of the playoffs. As I said, in the first round they went 23-35 (0.396 series winning percentage), and those teams that advanced to the second round went 7-16 (0.304). By definition, since every playoff series has a winner and a loser, average is 0.500. Those numbers are bad. I can only conclude that overplaying your #1 goalie is significantly correlated with poor playoff performance.
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Old 03-13-2017, 05:11 PM   #4090
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The sweetness of the oilers missing the playoffs would be amplified by the potential effect on McDavid's future with Edmonton... he will be in every position to ask for a ton of money at the end of next season and he will be able to use offer sheets to dictate his salary + term.

Three consecutive seasons of futility with little to no help from his teammates or management to be a competitive team could go a long way in convincing him to seek max salary and shortest term to free agency. Pretty much any team in the league would be willing to offer him that too. The oilers will of course match but it will handcuff them for the remaining 4 years with a huge chunk of salary cap committed to one player. Then McDavid will leave in free agency.

Glorious.


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Old 03-13-2017, 06:31 PM   #4091
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They could probably really use a guy like Taylor Hall...
And about another half dozen Giordano's... 5 just isn't enough.
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Old 03-13-2017, 06:40 PM   #4092
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Oh its brutal, just talk to any retired goalie. They tear the hell out of their knees.
I talked to a guy at a event who had played goal professionally for a bunch of years in the lower minors and in Europe and he was only about 40, but he walked like an 80 year old man. He basically blamed the butterfly because its an un-natural thing to do 20 or 30 times a night.

He basically said that he admired the goalies that played in the stand up generation.
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Old 03-13-2017, 06:44 PM   #4093
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A lot tougher on hips than knees.

The butterfly is so hard on the hips.

Especially if you have played that style since you were a young boy.
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Old 03-13-2017, 06:46 PM   #4094
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The sweetness of the oilers missing the playoffs would be amplified by the potential effect on McDavid's future with Edmonton... he will be in every position to ask for a ton of money at the end of next season and he will be able to use offer sheets to dictate his salary + term.

Three consecutive seasons of futility with little to no help from his teammates or management to be a competitive team could go a long way in convincing him to seek max salary and shortest term to free agency. Pretty much any team in the league would be willing to offer him that too. The oilers will of course match but it will handcuff them for the remaining 4 years with a huge chunk of salary cap committed to one player. Then McDavid will leave in free agency.

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I really think we as a fan base need to come to terms with the fact that McDavid will be an Oiler for a long time. He's not going anywhere any time soon. Wishful thinking is all that is.
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Old 03-13-2017, 06:54 PM   #4095
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I really think we as a fan base need to come to terms with the fact that McDavid will be an Oiler for a long time. He's not going anywhere any time soon. Wishful thinking is all that is.
Who cares. The Oilers also are not going anywhere without a complete organizational enema. They will & have proven they can squander &/or marginalize talent. If he wants to stay their, go for it.

Once McD gets paid & the freebies are over, a flat cap & their brutal asset management will handcuff them while Lucic will be the anchor that keeps them treading water at best.
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Old 03-13-2017, 06:54 PM   #4096
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I really think we as a fan base need to come to terms with the fact that McDavid will be an Oiler for a long time. He's not going anywhere any time soon. Wishful thinking is all that is.


If they don't make the playoffs this season or next season... I would think that would make him want to shorten his commitment to Edmonton. Plus getting to free agency earlier ensures the maximum amount of money he can make provided he stays healthy. Crosby, Kane, and toews all became free agents around 26/27 I believe. He could do the same. At which point... if the oilers still haven't become a contender... I would not be surprised if he wanted out.


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Old 03-13-2017, 07:00 PM   #4097
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If they don't make the playoffs this season or next season... I would think that would make him want to shorten his commitment to Edmonton. Plus getting to free agency earlier ensures the maximum amount of money he can make provided he stays healthy. Crosby, Kane, and toews all became free agents around 26/27 I believe. He could do the same. At which point... if the oilers still haven't become a contender... I would not be surprised if he wanted out.


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Most likely he will want out regardless. I will never forget that look of utter disappointment on draft day when he realized the Oilers had him.
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Old 03-13-2017, 07:15 PM   #4098
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I really think we as a fan base need to come to terms with the fact that McDavid will be an Oiler for a long time. He's not going anywhere any time soon. Wishful thinking is all that is.
Its dependant on McDavid's career desires too.

I don't think he's going to take a discount to stay in Edmonton long term, especially with the marketing around him and the money that Edmonton makes because of him.

Because of his contract unless you've got a very good GM, and your drafting and development is solid, you're going to end up with a fairly thin lineup.

If you are suddenly spending lets say 20 million of a 80 million dollar cap on two players its going to be tough to do anything but rotate talent through and then fill the rest with cheap players.

The luxury of signing 6 million dollar free agents will probably come to an end.

If you suddenly have another 6 million dollar person on the top line or a 25 million dollar top line. Then you have 10 million dollars or more on a top defensive pairing and 5 or 6 million bucks on a goalie you're sitting at 41 million with a need to get 14 other players.

Its not an easy balancing act.

Pittsburgh works because they fill their lineup with cheap veterans and younger guys but Sid isn't even the highest paid player on the team, Malkin is. And they don't have a lot of high priced talent on that team. They have Kessel at 6.8, Letang at 7.8 and Fleury at 5.75.

The Oilers aren't going to be able to have Draisaitl, Eberle, Lucic, Hopkins, at 6 or more each and then have McDavid at 12. Especially with a top 3 blueline averaging 4.2 million.

The other biggest problem with the Oilers is that their pipeline is thin. They'll be a nhl team that might be NHL and even very good NHL on their top line and top pairing and starting goaltending. But be a below average NHL team or worse in their bottom 3 lines bottom 2 pairs and backup goalie.
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Old 03-13-2017, 08:07 PM   #4099
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The butterfly is so hard on the hips.
Agreed. I was a goalie from 10-20 and my knees are pretty useless, but my hips are worse.
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Old 03-13-2017, 10:37 PM   #4100
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I talked to a guy at a event who had played goal professionally for a bunch of years in the lower minors and in Europe and he was only about 40, but he walked like an 80 year old man. He basically blamed the butterfly because its an un-natural thing to do 20 or 30 times a night.

He basically said that he admired the goalies that played in the stand up generation.
Thats nothing. What about morning skate, pre-game warmups, practice, etc.

I cant even imagine how often they do that.
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