Calgary Public Transit - Discussion

[Torture]

Originally Posted by accord1999

At this point, when you factor in what the costs will be for the expansions the tunneled Green Line today has become simply too expensive and too limited. Just to get back to the original 40 km length, you're looking at probably $1.5B to cross the Bow, $3.5B to reach Panorama and $2B to reach Seton, and $400M if you want to add back the Centre Street station. Plus hundreds of millions for another maintenance yard because Highfield will be lucky to handle and store 20 trains.

Even if you could get funding for all of that in a reasonable time frame, is their political support to direct 100% of another generations worth of transit capital funding for one line?

The rest of the thing isn't going to be as expensive, they are doing the hard part including tunneling first. Hardest part that is left is getting over the river and then it's a lot simpler project.

[BlackArcher101]

A grand central station? Sounds 15min city'esque

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Torture

The rest of the thing isn't going to be as expensive, they are doing the hard part including tunneling first. Hardest part that is left is getting over the river and then it's a lot simpler project.

Even in 2019, the estimate for 16th to Panorama Hills was well over $2B and Shepard to Seton around $1B.





With Stage 1 cut down so much, none of the extensions are easy. And going North will probably never happen.

[powderjunkie]

I'm a bleeding heart leftie and transit zealot. I did not think this was a smart project in the Shephard to 16th configuration, but I could accept that it was a reasonable enough way to get started. Every scope reduction since then has been farcical.

This thing was ####ed from day 1. The leadership structure (or lack thereof) was a massive problem, coupled with councillors sticking their noses in with moronic directions. Setting up the Green Line Board was a step in the right direction (albeit a half decade too late), but their mandate was poor. They were tasked specifially with building Shephard to 16th, at the exclusion of any other possibilities of the broader plan (including North BRT that was part of the 2017 approved plan). Limiting their scope made some sense, but with every uncovered piece of bad news they remained boxed in to a nonsensical alignment.

In 2017, Shepard to 16th was just barely the least bad of several disappointing options (compared to the fantastical 2015 announcement), but it is increasingly clear that decision was made on some very poor assumptions/analysis. The OPEX on this was always going to suck.


A sensible solution has always been obvious (with the caveat of requiring buy-in from the province and feds....which the tunnel visioned SELRT just failed anyways): BRT to the SE; designed to be easily converted to LRT if/when it is actually justified. Focus on North LRT. It's much shorter, simpler*, and higher yield ridership. No tunnels necessary if you drop the requirement of connecting the lines (at least immediately).

But ultimately the UCPs rationale here is ####ing stupid. #### the UCP.

[You Need a Thneed]

Put more trains on 7th ave - yeah, good luck with that.

It was already way over capacity with no room to add more - that's part of why the whole system had to extended to 4 car platforms - a decision that was made well over a decade ago.

What a terrible, corrupt provincial government. Just blatantly misrepresenting facts on everything, meanwhile this project will just be MORE delayed, and cost more - and the province will put the money towards a privately owned airport train, which will have very little benefit to the city's public transportation network, and have FAR lower ridership than even the stub green line approved not so long ago by the city.

[frinkprof]

Originally Posted by frinkprof

4. There's potentially much more drama and disruption to come, likely at the hands of the provincial government. Without getting into just how incompetent, manipulative, vindictive and corrupt the provincial government has proven to be, I would fully expect more moving of the goalposts. This includes further delays to funding commitments, scrapping of funding commitments altogether, making changes to the composition of City Council (including number of councillor positions) ahead of the municipal election, and uploading the management and planning of major transit infrastructure projects to the provincial government (basically going back to the drawing board with the Green Line under the Province, putting Nose Creek alignment back on the board, at grade operation in the downtown or downtown scrapped altogether). For a case study, see the Ford government in Ontario in the handling of the City of Toronto and TTC projects.

From early 2020.

Not surprising in the least.

No one had a crystal ball on which circumstances would factor in at a macro-level (COVID, inflation, etc.), but make no mistake. Any UCP provincial government was going to move the goalposts and otherwise hold up this project until they could put a bullet in it and put forward a redesign and hail themselves as saviours.

Incompetent, manipulative, vindictive, corrupt. Only truer now.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by frinkprof

From early 2020.

Not surprising in the least.

No one had a crystal ball on which circumstances would factor in at a macro-level (COVID, inflation, etc.), but make no mistake. Any UCP provincial government was going to move the goalposts and otherwise hold up this project until they could put a bullet in it and put forward a redesign and hail themselves as saviours.

Incompetent, manipulative, vindictive, corrupt. Only truer now.

The only goalpost the UCP moved was demanding the City go from splitting Stage 1 into 3 parts, back to 2 parts.


The ultimate failure of the Green Line comes from its insistence on tunneling through DT no matter the cost and how much of the NC LRT it had to cut (all of it), and eventually even the SE LRT. And not firing everybody involved back in 2017 when more realistic costs became available.

[Looch City]

Thanks a lot Nenshi.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Torture

The rest of the thing isn't going to be as expensive, they are doing the hard part including tunneling first. Hardest part that is left is getting over the river and then it's a lot simpler project.

accord knows his #### on this.

The north is "simple", but it's not necessarily cheap, and there is some uncertainty on utility alignments for certain sections (I forget the exact details but I got learned up on this by someone smrt a while back).

IMO the biggest problem is the assumption that the "hard part" has to be done at all. Connecting N and SE is nice, but not a need. You do have to go over or under the heavy rail tracks for the SE (actually you don't for a BRT...)

The hub and spoke design still makes sense, but transit has become waaaaay less downtown-centric in recent years. But if you're going to spend billions on tunnels, then 8th Ave would deliver way better value, and open up a bunch of possibilities for getting the SE line to the core (I'd skip Inglewood and link up with the red line around 42nd Ave, but there are other options, too).

But adding a fifth line to 7th ave is the dumbest idea in the history of dumb ideas and Dreeshen should commit seppuku for suggesting such a thing (but of course he has no honour to restore to begin with...)

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Put more trains on 7th ave - yeah, good luck with that.

It was already way over capacity with no room to add more - that's part of why the whole system had to extended to 4 car platforms - a decision that was made well over a decade ago.

The Red Line isn't running 4-car trains because of upgrades to Haysboro, despite record CTrain ridership (I assume that most ridership gains are off-peak and weekends and WFH has reduced rush hour):

https://www.calgarytransit.com/plans...Expansion.html

Given the low ridership estimate of the SE LRT (2-car trains with about 500 passenger spaces at 8 minute frequencies), there likely is enough capacity on 7th Avenue when 4-car trains are available. It won't be pretty, but the alternative is needing another $2B.

[bizaro86]

They should have just built downtown up centre.street to begin with. At every time in this project's history stopping what they were doing and switching to centre street North only instead was the right choice, up to and including now.

So naturally, the UCP stops what they're doing and makes some half-plan to build just the SE and use 7th Ave.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by accord1999

The Red Line isn't running 4-car trains because of upgrades to Haysboro, despite record CTrain ridership (I assume that most ridership gains are off-peak and weekends and WFH has reduced rush hour):

https://www.calgarytransit.com/plans...Expansion.html

Given the low ridership estimate of the SE LRT (2-car trains with about 500 passenger spaces at 8 minute frequencies), there likely is enough capacity on 7th Avenue when 4-car trains are available. It won't be pretty, but the alternative is needing another $2B.

Except for those pesky low-floor trains they've already ordered, but maybe we just dump those in the same river as that Turkish tylenol

[GGG]

Originally Posted by accord1999

The Red Line isn't running 4-car trains because of upgrades to Haysboro, despite record CTrain ridership (I assume that most ridership gains are off-peak and weekends and WFH has reduced rush hour):

https://www.calgarytransit.com/plans...Expansion.html

Given the low ridership estimate of the SE LRT (2-car trains with about 500 passenger spaces at 8 minute frequencies), there likely is enough capacity on 7th Avenue when 4-car trains are available. It won't be pretty, but the alternative is needing another $2B.

But why bother running down 7th. Just end the train and don’t cross 7th.

The original C-Train line was built on not being perfect and expanding the network. I think the focus on tunnelling downtown over playing track was a mistake.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by GGG

But why bother running down 7th. Just end the train and don’t cross 7th.

The original C-Train line was built on not being perfect and expanding the network. I think the focus on tunnelling downtown over playing track was a mistake.

You need space for the tails/switches at the terminus (my terminology might be wrong). Not sure how that was going to work at Eau Claire now that I think about it, but obviously it’s possible)

The problem is they need to go under Macleod Trails, and then deep under 8th because that will eventually have a tunnel extended from the portion never used)

[Locke]

When do they change the name to the Brown-Line?

[White Out 403]

https://globalnews.ca/news/10731665/...e-lrt-funding/

Alberta government ‘unable’ to fund revised Green Line LRT project: letter



Edit. Well. Late to the party my bad
But there was money for the rich owners of the Flames to have a brand new arena at taxpayer cost. Got it.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

https://globalnews.ca/news/10731665/...e-lrt-funding/

Alberta government ‘unable’ to fund revised Green Line LRT project: letter

But there was money for the rich owners of the Flames to have a brand new arena at taxpayer cost. Got it.

I think frink said it best, they want to terminate a plan that wasnt theirs so they can cobble together some half-assed plan that they can slap a UCP sticker on and have Danielle Smith ride the first train and proclaim victory.

Although she'd probably ride it on the roof wearing a cowboy hat and slinging a rope.

Because she's an idiot.

But yeah, I dont think this is about the money. Its about Political Credit.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by GGG

But why bother running down 7th. Just end the train and don’t cross 7th.

Their projections said that not getting into the heart of DT would result in significant ridership losses.



https://pub-calgary.escribemeetings....umentId=121013

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by accord1999

The Red Line isn't running 4-car trains because of upgrades to Haysboro, despite record CTrain ridership (I assume that most ridership gains are off-peak and weekends and WFH has reduced rush hour):

https://www.calgarytransit.com/plans...Expansion.html

Given the low ridership estimate of the SE LRT (2-car trains with about 500 passenger spaces at 8 minute frequencies), there likely is enough capacity on 7th Avenue when 4-car trains are available. It won't be pretty, but the alternative is needing another $2B.

I mean, I was on the train platforms at 10 this morning, theres a train on every block already. There's isn't room for more trains.

And we can't plan for opening day ridership, we have to plan for ridership at full buildout.

We HAVE to have a new ROW downtown, and not just to the edge of downtown. The whole point of getting all of this money was to build the expensive and hard part, to which adding extensions is fairly easy.

[Jimmy Stang]

The thing is, this isn't about whether or not 7th Avenue has the capacity (it doesn't), or whether a new ROW in the core is important for future growth (it is).

This is all about a) tying Nenshi's name to this "boondoggle" because he's the UCP's biggest threat (he made it into the letter - that's not a mistake), and b) ensuring that the UCP's goals are prioritized over what benefits the citizens of Calgary. We must atone for (mostly) not endorsing her and her loony agenda.

I'm not against a Banff and airport train by any means, but it can exist alongside the Green Line. There is a need for both in the future, and neither one is going to be cheap.