View Poll Results: Mayor Poll
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Burrows, Craig
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7 |
1.59% |
Connelly, Joseph Patrick
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3 |
0.68% |
Devine, Bonnie
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0 |
0% |
Erskine, Barry
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0 |
0% |
Fech, Oscar
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4 |
0.91% |
Hawkesworth, Robert Andrew
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1 |
0.23% |
Higgins, Barbara Joan
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51 |
11.59% |
Hunter, Sandra Joan
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0 |
0% |
Johnston, Gary Fredrick
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0 |
0% |
Knight, Daniel
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0 |
0% |
Liu, Amanda
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2 |
0.45% |
Lord, Jon
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5 |
1.14% |
McIver, Richard William
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64 |
14.55% |
Nenshi, Naheed
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299 |
67.95% |
Stewart, Wayne
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4 |
0.91% |
10-05-2010, 02:40 PM
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#381
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tromboner
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: where the lattes are
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
I wouldn't mind Nenshi winning, but I still have worries about his ability to fix the financial problems and fix the auditable issues.
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Well given that the financial problems can't be fixed without economically sustainable development, if Nenshi might not be able to do it, then McIver and Higgins certainly cannot.
Last edited by SebC; 10-05-2010 at 02:45 PM.
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10-05-2010, 02:44 PM
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#382
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tromboner
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: where the lattes are
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunk
Name recognition between the three will start to equalize as the coverage of the race intensifies. Considering Higgins and McIver both have enjoyed such a massive name recognition advantage, Nenshi will be the benificiary.
What Nenshi really needs is a televised debate between the three so that the average Calgarian can see how he stacks up.
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Not sure who's participating, but there's a televised debate on Wednesday (CBC).
Last edited by SebC; 10-05-2010 at 02:47 PM.
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10-05-2010, 02:45 PM
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#383
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Franchise Player
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Never truer words spoken:
jeremybarretto If your support peaks on day one, people know your name. If you support increases from day one, people like your ideas. #yycvote
__________________
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10-05-2010, 02:47 PM
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#384
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Calgary in Heart, Ottawa in Body
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
But is it enough, I would expect the big push by all candidates and point shifts will be harder to come by.
I wouldn't mind Nenshi winning, but I still have worries about his ability to fix the financial problems and fix the auditable issues.
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Well there are a lot of wildcards on the table still.
- The poll does have a Margin of Error of +/-4.4%.
- How do these numbers affect the supporters of Wayne Stewart, Craig Burrows, John Lord, etc.? Where do their voters go? Are they shifting towards Barb or will they go behind Nenshi? I don't think that their supporters are strongly aligned with McIver's policies.
- Barb for all her name recognition and heavy hitters team isn't going anywhere. It's been an incredibly stagnant campaign and I don't see a monsterous momentum jump.
- Nenshi's support has doubled and still has momentum building. That being said, for his camp it would have been better if he was in the 20% range, but it's still a strong indication of momentum.
- 17% are still undecided.
- Again there's no information on how the poll was determined, so we still need to see how information was gathered.
Either way it's going to be an interesting two weeks.
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10-05-2010, 02:47 PM
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#385
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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Pretty surprising Higgins remained the same. Seemed like she was trending downward.
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10-05-2010, 02:52 PM
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#386
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burn_this_city
Pretty surprising Higgins remained the same. Seemed like she was trending downward.
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Yep, never underestimate name recognition. That advantage will fade the closer it gets to election day though.
__________________
Trust the snake.
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10-05-2010, 02:53 PM
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#387
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Norm!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SebC
Well given that the financial problems can't be fixed without economically sustainable development, if Nenshi might not be able to do it, then McIver and Higgins certainly cannot.
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I don't disagree with you on that.
McIver certainly dosen't have my vote, not because of his Dr No theories, but because he's just as cupable as the rest of the City Council in how they mismanged this city and bascially allowed the weasels to run the hen house.
Higgin's hasn't shown me anything beyond a flashy splash to open her compain.
I can't stand Hawkesworth I think he's a arrogant blowhard who's out of touch.
So its probably going to be Nenshi, but I'm looking for a balance with the heavier side being a cleanup of the nonsense at the City and a need to open up the books to an outside auditor.
__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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10-05-2010, 02:55 PM
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#388
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Backup Goalie
Join Date: Aug 2004
Exp:  
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I still believe that Higgin's number is so high because of the non-voters combined with name recognition, just picking a name when asked. I am assuming Nenshi and McIver have more dedicated supporters. The game is still about getting supporters out to vote for you.
Chris
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10-05-2010, 02:56 PM
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#389
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Norm!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c.t.ner
Well there are a lot of wildcards on the table still.
- The poll does have a Margin of Error of +/-4.4%.
- How do these numbers affect the supporters of Wayne Stewart, Craig Burrows, John Lord, etc.? Where do their voters go? Are they shifting towards Barb or will they go behind Nenshi? I don't think that their supporters are strongly aligned with McIver's policies.
- Barb for all her name recognition and heavy hitters team isn't going anywhere. It's been an incredibly stagnant campaign and I don't see a monsterous momentum jump.
- Nenshi's support has doubled and still has momentum building. That being said, for his camp it would have been better if he was in the 20% range, but it's still a strong indication of momentum.
- 17% are still undecided.
- Again there's no information on how the poll was determined, so we still need to see how information was gathered.
Either way it's going to be an interesting two weeks.
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With voter undecideds being at 17% I always make the assumption that the 17% isn't sgoing to vote.
I agree with the momentum comment, but I've usually found that a lot of ground is made up at the beginning and middle part of the campaign but ground is made up grudgingly at the end because voters are lazy and usually won't change their minds late in the game.
A lot of the lesser candidates will scoop up the undecided votes because they'll be seen as protest votes for those who don't want to vote for the top three no matter what.
__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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10-05-2010, 03:07 PM
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#390
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toledo OH
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cscutch
I still believe that Higgin's number is so high because of the non-voters combined with name recognition, just picking a name when asked. I am assuming Nenshi and McIver have more dedicated supporters. The game is still about getting supporters out to vote for you.
Chris
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Identity politics. I know a bunch of women in Higgins camp simply because she's a woman and they want a female mayor. Her support is probably understated on this forum because we would most likely be 90% male on this board.
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10-05-2010, 03:08 PM
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#391
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Calgary
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Big drop off for Dr No
Not sure if 16 is enough for Nenshi but he's definitely trending in the right direction.
LoL @ Barb not moving a single point.
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10-05-2010, 03:14 PM
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#392
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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To me this poll shows it's anyone's race (among the top 3). McIvor and Higgins are now within the poll's margin of error of each other. Nenshi is clearly behind, but has momentum and a lot of McIvor/Higgins supporters that are just picking someone based on name recognition may not be motivated enough to actually vote. McIvor has got to be worried by those results.
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10-05-2010, 03:21 PM
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#393
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
So its probably going to be Nenshi, but I'm looking for a balance with the heavier side being a cleanup of the nonsense at the City and a need to open up the books to an outside auditor.
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New video from Nenshi on his proposal for the auditor:
http://www.nenshi.ca/new/2010/120
__________________
Trust the snake.
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10-05-2010, 03:22 PM
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#394
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tromboner
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: where the lattes are
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
With voter undecideds being at 17% I always make the assumption that the 17% isn't sgoing to vote.
I agree with the momentum comment, but I've usually found that a lot of ground is made up at the beginning and middle part of the campaign but ground is made up grudgingly at the end because voters are lazy and usually won't change their minds late in the game.
A lot of the lesser candidates will scoop up the undecided votes because they'll be seen as protest votes for those who don't want to vote for the top three no matter what.
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Last poll, that 17% was 44%, so assuming that the undecided voters won't become decided voters isn't a great assumption. I do agree though that last-minute changes are hard to earn. I also still think turnout won't pass 40%, which means a lot of "decided voters" won't show up. Right now I'd say it all depends on who the about half of the decided voters (or 40% of the population) who won't actually vote are supporting.
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10-05-2010, 04:16 PM
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#395
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Franchise Player
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so I get certain emails from Calgary sent to me and see this poll today...
A new telephone poll of 501 Calgarians conducted by Calgary pollster Return on Insight shows Rick McIver (31%) has a three per cent lead on Barb Higgins (28%) in the race for mayor.
Naheed Nenshi finished third with 16% support.
The margin of error is +/- 4.4% 19 times out of 20.
/edit
seems like this is old news on a back scan
Last edited by Cheese; 10-05-2010 at 04:20 PM.
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10-05-2010, 04:30 PM
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#396
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Backup Goalie
Join Date: Aug 2004
Exp:  
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From Twitter:
From the Calgary Sun
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@ Tisin Calgary Sun had planned a debate with t/ top 3 in a 2-hour livestream for next week. Only @ Nenshi accepted #yycvote #top3candebate
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10-05-2010, 04:59 PM
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#397
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Franchise Player
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So according to the poll details there were 16% undecided.
Amongst the decided the results were:
McIver 37%
Higgins 33%
Nenshi 19%
So Calgary Sun wanted to hold a 3 way debate, but Higgins and McIver declined. Cowards.
__________________
Trust the snake.
Last edited by Bunk; 10-05-2010 at 05:06 PM.
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10-05-2010, 05:14 PM
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#398
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Supporting Urban Sprawl
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunk
Cameron Mayor poll:
McIver 31%.
Higgins 28%
Nenshi 16%
everyone else 3% or less.
17% 'undecided'.
The results of the previous poll were:
McIver 43%
Higgins 28%
Nenshi 8%
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I would not have thought McIver would drop that much.
__________________
"Wake up, Luigi! The only time plumbers sleep on the job is when we're working by the hour."
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10-05-2010, 05:16 PM
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#399
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rathji
I would not have thought McIver would drop that much.
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Could be all the undecided who were firmly against him finally figuring out how they want to vote.
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10-05-2010, 05:20 PM
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#400
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Supporting Urban Sprawl
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cscutch
From Twitter:
From the Calgary Sun
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@ Tisin Calgary Sun had planned a debate with t/ top 3 in a 2-hour livestream for next week. Only @ Nenshi accepted #yycvote #top3candebate
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That is very telling.
I wonder if McIver and Higgins are both insecure enough to refuse any 3 way debate.
__________________
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