Gaudreau's going to ask for $9M and point to Panarin, Benn, Stone and Tkachuk's QO. Unrealistic in my view, but I bet that's where he starts.
Gio also started at $9M per year, and settled below that for long term. I think a $7M x 7 years is realistic for both sides, which means it's not really a big bump from his $6.75M currently.
There is no more room for error from a management standpoint, this is it. This team has a weak asset base, so resources are low and you cannot be wrong anymore. No more Neals, no more Brouwers, no more Lazars and Raymonds and etc. Find the right guys who can actually drive play and who can take pressure off of the top line consistently. Ideally, the second line should be able to push the top line for more ice time. The 3rd and 4th lines have to be good too, no more black holes on the offensive side like a Joakim Nordstrom. Everyone skater needs to be able to contribute above the average. That’s how we get out of the middle.
This is where being bottom 10 in terms of number of draft picks over BT’s tenure hurts. If the team wants to retool it needs good prospects who have room to grow (the Robertsons, Kyrous, Necases) and push the top guys. Instead the team has blown all its assets on idiotic signings and trades. We’ve been ranked in the bottom 10 league wide for prospects for years, and that combined with a dinosaur development philosophy leaves FA as only choice the team has.
I’m not seeing scenario in the short or medium term where we can keep the first line intact and find the value that the team needs to compete for series wins. Even if we go with a prospect heavy approach I don’t see rookies next year making enough of a difference to get the team to the next level, and we all know how well the franchise has done at acquiring the right free agents.
I'm genuinely curious what BT could have said in his availability that would have satisfied some of you. It's like tuning in to a politician you've already decided you hate, and then being surprised when his remarks annoy you.
That said, [without having heard them in full context], the WAS comments is pretty dumb. WAS made it to game 7 or later in 14/15 seasons (the exception being the one year they missed po's). Their 2nd worst year is better than our 2nd best year.
I’ve been as critical on Treliving as it gets around here. But I did like that he could at least recognize where he screwed up. He admitted that there are holes in the lineup, that he failed to acquire the right players to fill those holes, that parts of the core need to be looked at, that scoring depth needs to be addressed and that changes must occur.
I heard a lot of good things from Brad. My biggest problem though is still about his player evaluation, which he admitted that he got it wrong in evaluating the talent on this team, so that was good to hear. But the question is, can we still trust Tre and his braintrust to find the right forwards.
They basically have to rebuild an entire scoring line and I’m just not sure he has the pro scouts to accomplish this feat. It’s probably the single toughest task he’s ever had to achieve. I’m extremely skeptical, but that’s another topic all together. But to answer your question, I’m quite satisfied with what he had to say.
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Gio also started at $9M per year, and settled below that for long term. I think a $7M x 7 years is realistic for both sides, which means it's not really a big bump from his $6.75M currently.
I don't disagree it's a fair amount, given what a bunch of wingers make. I'm concerned there is not enough time to get there and still have time to get Eichel.
I'd go $7.5, maybe even between there and $8. If he agrees to term.
Gio signed a fantastic contract considering what was going on in the league at the time. But it's something I bet the Flames are mindful of - the contract isn't a bargain any more.
I’ve been as critical on Treliving as it gets around here. But I did like that he could at least recognize where he screwed up. He admitted that there are holes in the lineup, that he failed to acquire the right players to fill those holes, that parts of the core need to be looked at, that scoring depth needs to be addressed and that changes must occur.
I heard a lot of good things from Brad. My biggest problem though is still about his player evaluation, which he admitted that he got it wrong in evaluating the talent on this team, so that was good to hear. But the question is, can we still trust Tre and his braintrust to find the right forwards.
They basically have to rebuild an entire scoring line and I’m just not sure he has the pro scouts to accomplish this feat. It’s probably the single toughest task he’s ever had to achieve. I’m extremely skeptical, but that’s another topic all together. But to answer your question, I’m quite satisfied with what he had to say.
That's his (and our inept pro scouting) problem...they're terrible at evaluating talent especially at the forward positions...
That's his (and our inept pro scouting) problem...they're terrible at evaluating talent especially at the forward positions...
I'd say they did a good job with Lindholm (predicting he was about to pop) and Ryan. I'd say they did a decent job figuring Lucic > Neal. Versteeg was OK. Frolik was a good grab. Colborne was worth a 4th.
Does it outweigh Neal/Brouwer/Czarnik/Raymond/Setoguchi/Lazar? no.
I'd say they did a good job with Lindholm (predicting he was about to pop) and Ryan. I'd say they did a decent job figuring Lucic > Neal. Versteeg was OK. Frolik was a good grab. Colborne was worth a 4th.
Does it outweigh Neal/Brouwer/Czarnik/Raymond/Setoguchi/Lazar? no.
I hear ya but yea, it will never outweigh Neal/Brouwer/Lazar....I think my beef is with the bottom 6 guys, they always seem to let go of the ones with potential and replace with an even worse plug
This is where being bottom 10 in terms of number of draft picks over BT’s tenure hurts. If the team wants to retool it needs good prospects who have room to grow (the Robertsons, Kyrous, Necases) and push the top guys. Instead the team has blown all its assets on idiotic signings and trades. We’ve been ranked in the bottom 10 league wide for prospects for years, and that combined with a dinosaur development philosophy leaves FA as only choice the team has.
I’m not seeing scenario in the short or medium term where we can keep the first line intact and find the value that the team needs to compete for series wins. Even if we go with a prospect heavy approach I don’t see rookies next year making enough of a difference to get the team to the next level, and we all know how well the franchise has done at acquiring the right free agents.
Yeah exactly, as I just previously posted, I’m extremely skeptical that this can be pulled off especially because the asset base is so weak and the obvious track record of the regime. Jack Eichel is absolutely the type of player that should be targeted, but other teams can easily outbid the Flames, so what can the Flames do instead? They’ll likely have to build a new scoring line almost from scratch requiring 2 to 3 good quality pieces.
I don’t know if his team can pull it off, but I am fully willing to give credit where it’s due if he does manage to pull it off. I mean he did a great job of targeting Chris Tanev and I was one of the few people that actually liked and defended the signing. So maybe he can pull off the magic, maybe not. But I guess we’ll just have to see.
I largely agree with you, and far too often these things are put off.
From an ownership standpoint I get it. You think you're close so why give away potential playoff money and push the whole thing down the road?
I wish they'd see that if you do it right you can have 15 years of playoff experiences and potentially two or three that go deep, at least that should be the plan.
Having said all that this isn't a demolition to the studs type of operation. This isn't an aging team at all.
I'm good with brining Tkachuk, Lindholm and Gaudreau back as a top line given what I saw in the last month of the season; that is if Gaudreau agrees to a reasonable contract.
If he wants max dollars and/or term you have to move him.
I like Dube and Mangiapane up front.
I like Zary and Pelletier as depth pieces going forward.
Monahan is one I can't completely decide on.
I think you let Giordano go in the expansion draft and if they take someone else move him at the deadline.
The big key for me is not chase it with free agents. Get younger in the depth areas and take some lumps for a year or two, and maybe you avoid the five year mess you're describing.
I'd be much happier with a younger team with cap space learning to play Sutter's defense system and being plucky enough to be close to a playoff spot than a team maxed to the cap that isn't showing up often enough.
Great post, Bingo, and probably the closest one in this thread to my own view.
What makes this off-season most frustrating is what you’ve outlined here: it really isn’t a “blow it up” situation, but it’s also not a “few minor tweaks” situation either. It would be WAY easier if it fell clearly into one of those categories...
With respect to Gio, in an ideal world, they’d be able to trade him (to try and get an asset back—wish this had happened at the deadline this year) and then convince Seattle to take Lucic. At very least, they have to expose Gio and hope Seattle takes one of these two.
It’s no disrespect to either player, but it’s time this team took a page out of Hufnagel’s GM book and put team-business ahead of sentiment. Both those contracts off the books would be amazing, but they must shed at least one of them. (From another “sentimental” standpoint, I’m going to hate to see Derek Ryan leave, but from the “Hufnagel” angle, it’s probably better for the team if that they give that opportunity to a younger player.)
With respect to the forward group, I agree that Gaudreau is the catalyst. If they think he’ll re-sign for a decent amount, they need to get it done quickly so they can figure out the rest. I’m not necessarily against “chasing” in UFA, but it can’t happen if they don’t know what they’re supplementing. (For example, I used to be quite against pursuing Taylor Hall, but now I think he could be a useful addition for a team that can’t score, especially if they decided to build around a core of Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk, and where Hall doesn’t have to be the “main” guy...) Regardless, they can’t plan anything (in free-agency or potential trades of guys like Monahan) before clarifying Gaudreau’s future.
Ultimately, I’m hoping that they’ll make some of these difficult decisions, but I’m fearful that they’ll do what they usually do and put “heart over head”—especially with Gio. You can love the player (EGs: Gio, Lucic, Johnny, Monahan) but also recognize when it’s time to move on, for the good of the team.
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I hear ya but yea, it will never outweigh Neal/Brouwer/Lazar....I think my beef is with the bottom 6 guys, they always seem to let go of the ones with potential and replace with an even worse plug
Who did they let go with potential? Colborne? Jankowski? Lazar? It sure wasn't Lomberg.
Sure, Hathaway, but you can blame Neal for that. Hathaway (a) wanted out east and (b) needed more than the $1.5M he got from the Caps to persuade him to not go out east.
Sure we notice when a Lomber or a Byron scores. But do we all post when they don't? No.
That's his (and our inept pro scouting) problem...they're terrible at evaluating talent especially at the forward positions...
There’s no doubt about that. I’ve been railing on the pro scouting for years in their failure to acquire meaningful players up front. It’s probably the biggest reason why this team failed this season. Poor decisions lead to a poor cap situation which in turn lead to the decision to acquire league minimum scraps to fill important holes.
Would we all be screaming for heads had management signed Toffoli and he scored 20+ for us? Nope, because we’d probably be in the playoffs right now. It’s actually ridiculous to think that one player, one single UFA signing in Tyler freakin’ Toffoli could make such a huge difference in the standings this season.
He’s probably the one player that I can point out that not only got Montreal in, but took us completely out. He lead their team in goals by a mile and he scored some absolutely massive goals in our head to head meetings. This is the guy we needed to fill the right side this season.
Haven’t we speculated enough when it comes to the Gaudreau situation?
We have clue what he is thinking.
We have (a) his last negotiations and (b) how pretty much all NHL contracts are negotiated - though comparables.
What NHL player coming out of RFA doesn't ask for a raise? What NHL player doesn't use other recent signings as examples of what he should be paid? This isn't just random guesswork.
The Flames have comparables they can use as well that are lower.
For the forth line, I think maybe the Flames should sign washed-up veterans that are desperate for contracts. Like what they did with Versteeg.
Look at Tampa Bay's 4th Line:
Patrick Maroon - Tyler Johnson - Luke Schenn
Look at Calgary's 4th line:
Dominik Simon / Nordstrom - Derek Ryan - Brett Ritchie
Maroon: 18 points in 55 games
Johnson: 22 points in 55 games
Barclay Goodrow: 20 points in 55 games
Dominik Simon: 0 points in 11 games
Ryan: 13 points in 43 games
Ritchie: 8 points in 32 games (3 of them in the last game)
Nordstrom: 7 points in 44 games
So the Lightning's 4th line roughly triples the offensive production of the Flames 4th line.
By the way, Goodrow and Maroon both make 900k.
Look at the Toronto Maple Leaf's 4th line (Simmonds, Thornton, Spezza). Same thing. More production, still a low cap hit.
I think the best way to build a 4th line is to basically hand out contracts to UFAs that a former top 9 players.
Lee Stempniak could have been given a contract like this after the 2019 season. He probably would have produced much more than most 4th liners. He would rather have signed for league minimum on the Flames than nowhere. Same goes for guys like Glencross after the 2015 season.
If Soderberg, Cizikas, Martinook, Sutter, Cogliano and Perreault struggle to find homes this offseason, they are the ones who should be signed as 4th liners. Not only because they can actually contribute offensive, but they can play on the third line if necessary.
Don't guys like Ritchie, Rinaldo, Nordstrom, and Simon who have never really produced at any point anywhere.
In a league where parity is everyone, you can't afford to have your 4th line produced only a third of other teams' 4th lines.
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