Sam Bennett as a center or winger?

[edslunch]

Depressing top 100 under 21 list in The Hockey News for Bennett - #85 with the comment

It's difficult to believe many scouts and pundits - including us - ranked Bennett higher than Ekblad and Leon Draisitl in their draft year. Bennett has developed slowly as a scorer and lacks major opportunity centering Calgary's third line. Learning from Jaromir Jagr will help.

Other Flames:
#89 Juuso Valimaki
#79 Adam Fox
#72 Tyler Parsons
#23 Matthew Tkachuk

[Tyler]

12gp 0g 0a -3

[locsofblu]

Originally Posted by Tyler

12gp 0g 0a -3

Yup. He has definitely been a big dissapointment to start the season but I'm not totally willing to right him off just yet.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Even if he only hits just 25, 30 points we still have another year with the guy. I’m not ready to write him off either, we’ll need to use him in the top 6 when one of Tkachuk/Gaudreau/Monahan/Backlund go down.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Tyler

12gp 0g 0a -3

The worst thing is that his ice time has been declining dramatically the last few games and his 12 shots on goal this year are absolutely inexcusable and more reflective of a 4th line plugger.

The only saving grace being that he has amassed 8 shots in his last 4 games as a winger despite the reduction in playing time. It feels like these next few games are going to be crucial in determining his path with the franchise. At this point you almost cannot justify playing him, but scratching him would basically kill what ever is left of his confidence.

[albertGQ]

Surprised to see Adam Fox and Tyler Parrsons rated higher than him. I know its just a THN magazine, but still.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Even if he only hits just 25, 30 points we still have another year with the guy. I’m not ready to write him off either, we’ll need to use him in the top 6 when one of Tkachuk/Gaudreau/Monahan/Backlund go down.

If Monahan goes down, those minutes go to Backs.

If Backs goes down, those minutes go to Janko.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Depressing top 100 under 21 list in The Hockey News for Bennett - #85 with the comment



Other Flames:
#89 Juuso Valimaki
#79 Adam Fox
#72 Tyler Parsons
#23 Matthew Tkachuk

It's pretty good that the Flames have 5 players in their "Top 100 under 21".
I mean the average team should only have 3.2 players on the list.
And the Flames aren't even rebuilding. Valimaki, Fox, and Parsons were all just great picks.

And at least Bennett is still barely 21.

[pepper24]

Bennett hasn’t been much better on wing. Zero points and 3rd line still struggling. You’d think 4th line or press box is next.

I’d go Versteeg-Jankowski-Jagr as 3rd line. Bennett has been only constant on 3rd line that is costing Flames games. Move him off.

Jankowski hasn’t been great either but by default only real 3rd line center option. Waive Glass or Hamilton.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[colbym72]

Anywhere to see the rest of the list?

[Kovaz]

So, last year, the narrative with Bennett was that he was dragged down by his linemates. I dug through his stats this year to see if that was the case. Originally I was trying to argue that Bennett-Jankowski-Lazar was an effective line, but what I found was that Bennett's been pretty effective with most of his linemates - the one exception being (surprise surprise) Troy Brouwer.

Bennett's stats, away from Brouwer (112.32 minutes):
xGF/60: 2.52
xGA/60: 1.60
xGF%: 61.1%

Bennett's stats, with Brouwer (18.11 minutes):
xGF/60: 0.76
xGA/60: 6.33
xGF%: 10.7%

In the game-and-a-half of ice time Bennett has spent with Brouwer this season, he's been the worst player in the NHL by a country mile. Offensively, nobody in the league is below Victor Antipin's 1.03 xGF/60. And defensively, nobody is above Boone Jenner's 4.03 xGA/60. The Bennett-Brouwer combo has generated a good 30% fewer chances offensively than anyone else in the league, while also conceding 50% more than anyone else. Small sample size, but those are horrific numbers. They'd be below-average numbers on the penalty-kill, yet they happened 5v5.

However, in the other 90% of his ice time, he's been well above average. His 2.52 xGF/60 would rank 5th on the team, while his 1.60 xGA/60 would be first. Those numbers would be impressive for the 3M line, let alone a draft bust who should be healthy scratched.

There are obvious caveats to all this. Brouwer has been a lot better since being put on the 4th line, and despite his solid possession stats Bennett is largely to blame for his inability to finish. But the point I'm trying to make is, even in the midst of the least productive stretch we've seen from him, there are still good things happening. Bennett's lines have generally had the puck more often than not, and they haven't allowed a ton of chances against. Unlike last year, where the 3rd line was a tire fire that bled goals against - this year they've at least been solid defensively. Keep the Bennett-Jankowski pair together, throw Jagr on their RW once he's healthy, and the results will come.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by pepper24

Bennett hasn’t been much better on wing. Zero points and 3rd line still struggling. You’d think 4th line or press box is next.

I’d go Versteeg-Jankowski-Jagr as 3rd line. Bennett has been only constant on 3rd line that is costing Flames games. Move him off.

Jankowski hasn’t been great either but by default only real 3rd line center option. Waive Glass or Hamilton.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well by your logic Bennett would be hurting Jankowski at this point and I'm inclined to agree with that notion.

I feel it's only a matter of time until Janko busts out and starts scoring - perhaps a new winger would expedite that process. Bennett would be hard pressed to be scoring in the AHL playing the way he is this year.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

So, last year, the narrative with Bennett was that he was dragged down by his linemates. I dug through his stats this year to see if that was the case. Originally I was trying to argue that Bennett-Jankowski-Lazar was an effective line, but what I found was that Bennett's been pretty effective with most of his linemates - the one exception being (surprise surprise) Troy Brouwer.

Bennett's stats, away from Brouwer (112.32 minutes):
xGF/60: 2.52
xGA/60: 1.60
xGF%: 61.1%

Bennett's stats, with Brouwer (18.11 minutes):
xGF/60: 0.76
xGA/60: 6.33
xGF%: 10.7%

In the game-and-a-half of ice time Bennett has spent with Brouwer this season, he's been the worst player in the NHL by a country mile. Offensively, nobody in the league is below Victor Antipin's 1.03 xGF/60. And defensively, nobody is above Boone Jenner's 4.03 xGA/60. The Bennett-Brouwer combo has generated a good 30% fewer chances offensively than anyone else in the league, while also conceding 50% more than anyone else. Small sample size, but those are horrific numbers. They'd be below-average numbers on the penalty-kill, yet they happened 5v5.

However, in the other 90% of his ice time, he's been well above average. His 2.52 xGF/60 would rank 5th on the team, while his 1.60 xGA/60 would be first. Those numbers would be impressive for the 3M line, let alone a draft bust who should be healthy scratched.

There are obvious caveats to all this. Brouwer has been a lot better since being put on the 4th line, and despite his solid possession stats Bennett is largely to blame for his inability to finish. But the point I'm trying to make is, even in the midst of the least productive stretch we've seen from him, there are still good things happening. Bennett's lines have generally had the puck more often than not, and they haven't allowed a ton of chances against. Unlike last year, where the 3rd line was a tire fire that bled goals against - this year they've at least been solid defensively. Keep the Bennett-Jankowski pair together, throw Jagr on their RW once he's healthy, and the results will come.

At some point Bennett needs to find a way to make something happen if he's not getting the match-ups as you suggest.

It is not good enough to just have the puck and not give up a ton of chances against anymore. At the very least you could live with it if he was firing shots off left, right and center. It's very obvious in watching good players that are on the verge and I have yet to see that with Sam. He is supposed to be a top prospect and was a lottery pick a few years ago - it's not good enough and the leash has been far too long already if you ask me.

[bubbsy]

Going into the season there were 2 arguments/defences to Bennett, 1) quality of linemates, 2) center VS wing.

I'm of the opinion that former is more critical than the latter. I'd like to see him on the wing with proven top 6 nhl talent. A rookie center and a 45 year old jagr are hardly that. I hope it works but I really want to see him on the wing with Monahan or on Backlund's line before forming a firm opinion on him.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

At some point Bennett needs to find a way to make something happen if he's not getting the match-ups as you suggest.

It is not good enough to just have the puck and not give up a ton of chances against anymore. At the very least you could live with it if he was firing shots off left, right and center. It's very obvious in watching good players that are on the verge and I have yet to see that with Sam. He is supposed to be a top prospect and was a lottery pick a few years ago - it's not good enough and the leash has been far too long already if you ask me.

The point I'm trying to make is there's a big difference between "Bennett's been disappointing for a blue chip prospect," which I agree with, and "Bennett should be healthy scratched / dumped for a pick," which I strongly disagree with.

He deserves criticism, but comments like:

Maybe press box if point slump continues

You’d think 4th line or press box is next.

Bennett has been only constant on 3rd line that is costing Flames games

the leash has been far too long already

are hyperbolic. Despite his struggles, Bennett has still been among the 9 best options for our top 9 forwards. Lazar and Jankowski have both put up similarly strong possession numbers and come away with no points while being much more heavily sheltered than Bennett. Brouwer's been a tire fire any time he's been near the top-9. Versteeg's been a turnover machine at 5 on 5. Bennett's potential replacements have all been at least as bad, and he's still at least got some potential to turn it around. He's not actively hurting the team, so what's the downside to giving him more time to figure it out?

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

So, last year, the narrative with Bennett was that he was dragged down by his linemates. I dug through his stats this year to see if that was the case. Originally I was trying to argue that Bennett-Jankowski-Lazar was an effective line, but what I found was that Bennett's been pretty effective with most of his linemates - the one exception being (surprise surprise) Troy Brouwer.

Bennett's stats, away from Brouwer (112.32 minutes):
xGF/60: 2.52
xGA/60: 1.60
xGF%: 61.1%

Bennett's stats, with Brouwer (18.11 minutes):
xGF/60: 0.76
xGA/60: 6.33
xGF%: 10.7%

In the game-and-a-half of ice time Bennett has spent with Brouwer this season, he's been the worst player in the NHL by a country mile. Offensively, nobody in the league is below Victor Antipin's 1.03 xGF/60. And defensively, nobody is above Boone Jenner's 4.03 xGA/60. The Bennett-Brouwer combo has generated a good 30% fewer chances offensively than anyone else in the league, while also conceding 50% more than anyone else. Small sample size, but those are horrific numbers. They'd be below-average numbers on the penalty-kill, yet they happened 5v5.

However, in the other 90% of his ice time, he's been well above average. His 2.52 xGF/60 would rank 5th on the team, while his 1.60 xGA/60 would be first. Those numbers would be impressive for the 3M line, let alone a draft bust who should be healthy scratched.

There are obvious caveats to all this. Brouwer has been a lot better since being put on the 4th line, and despite his solid possession stats Bennett is largely to blame for his inability to finish. But the point I'm trying to make is, even in the midst of the least productive stretch we've seen from him, there are still good things happening. Bennett's lines have generally had the puck more often than not, and they haven't allowed a ton of chances against. Unlike last year, where the 3rd line was a tire fire that bled goals against - this year they've at least been solid defensively. Keep the Bennett-Jankowski pair together, throw Jagr on their RW once he's healthy, and the results will come.

So zero points in 12 games mostly playing without Brouwer? Pretty effective stats you have there.

Last year I can count maybe 5 games and 1 playoff game where I remembered he was a lottery pick and got excited. The rest of the time I feel that being a lottery pick is the only reason he's not in the AHL. He went long stretches without points and dumb penalties like the start to this season.

So far he's more Griffin Reinhart (also 4th overall pick) or if we go way back another Rico Fata or Daniel Tkachuk (6th overall picks) which buried the Flames for years. Good junior players who couldn't match that in the pros.

He's no Monahan or M. Tkachuk. Fortunately for the Flames 2 out of our 3 recent top picks are really good. Bennett is on a short leash as this has been going on more than just this season. You have to be patient but for how long?

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

The point I'm trying to make is there's a big difference between "Bennett's been disappointing for a blue chip prospect," which I agree with, and "Bennett should be healthy scratched / dumped for a pick," which I strongly disagree with.

He deserves criticism, but comments like:





are hyperbolic. Despite his struggles, Bennett has still been among the 9 best options for our top 9 forwards. Lazar and Jankowski have both put up similarly strong possession numbers and come away with no points while being much more heavily sheltered than Bennett. Brouwer's been a tire fire any time he's been near the top-9. Versteeg's been a turnover machine at 5 on 5. Bennett's potential replacements have all been at least as bad, and he's still at least got some potential to turn it around. He's not actively hurting the team, so what's the downside to giving him more time to figure it out?

The fact the bottom 6 is struggling so badly is most definitely due, in part, to Bennett not being able to generate anything remotely close to what you could call offense. A guy who spends tons of time in the box due to idiotic, lazy penalties and struggles to put up even 1 shot per game on average is surely doing more harm than good.

Simply not good enough. The Flames are counting on him to be a producer and leader this year, not a passenger. He's lucky Gulutzan is showing patience beyond what is reasonable at this point and has not stapled him to the press box until he is ready to change his ways.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by pepper24

So zero points in 12 games mostly playing without Brouwer? Pretty effective stats you have there.

Last year I can count maybe 5 games and 1 playoff game where I remembered he was a lottery pick and got excited. The rest of the time I feel that being a lottery pick is the only reason he's not in the AHL. He went long stretches without points and dumb penalties like the start to this season.

So far he's more Griffin Reinhart (also 4th overall pick) or if we go way back another Rico Fata or Daniel Tkachuk (6th overall picks) which buried the Flames for years. Good junior players who couldn't match that in the pros.

He's no Monahan or M. Tkachuk. Fortunately for the Flames 2 out of our 3 recent top picks are really good. Bennett is on a short leash as this has been going on more than just this season. You have to be patient but for how long?

My point is when he's on the ice, he's generating dangerous shots that aren't going on. So far his lines, based on the shots taken while he's on the ice, should have scored about 5 goals so far, but they've only scored 2. These things turn around over time. Goal-based analysis is notoriously inaccurate and prone to random fluctuations, while shot-based analysis tends to perform better and become valuable earlier in the season.

The difference between a good player in a slump and a bad player (or between a good player and a bad player on a hot streak) is rarely visible if you just go to NHL.com and sort by points. Dustin Brown and Jason Pominville aren't PPG players. Kucherov isn't gonna score 50 in 50. Vegas isn't gonna win the president's trophy. And Bennett will start scoring.

[Tinordi]

Kucherov isn't gonna score 50 in 50.

Not saying it's likely but this sticks out from your other comparables. Kucherov is capable of 50 in 50, no doubt about it.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Not saying it's likely but this sticks out from your other comparables. Kucherov is capable of 50 in 50, no doubt about it.

He's at more than double his career shooting percentage right now and only generating about 10% more shots. No denying he's a ridiculous shooter, but this is just another unsustainable hot streak. There's one every year. Last year Crosby had 14 in 14 to start the year, and he didn't even score 50 by the end of the year.