Training Camp Predictions & Discussion

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

Ok. Time for a bold prediction from watching the pre-season and training camp.

We will not be as bad as everyone thinks.

I know that everyone thinks that there is no way that the team will be competitive and is a shoe-in for a top-5 pick. But I find that laughable.

I know we've been told all summer that without Iggy, Kipper and Bouw we are screwed, but I have to lovingly disagree.

1) Kipper was BAD in his last season. I'm talking BAD.
http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2013/0...e-2013-season/

Any other goalie would have given us more wins than Kiprusoff last season. His save percentage at even strength was .873 last year. That's worse than replacement level NHL goaltending.

Let me be clear. Any other goalie is going to give us more wins. Even if Karri posts a .906 (which is probably a bottom end translation of his ~.920sv in the KHL.) it will be miles (and wins) ahead of Kiprusoff's year.

2) Jarome Iginla didn't drive the play North anymore.

Since 2010 Jarome slipped into being a passenger and not the driver despite playing 18~mins a night. By 2013 he was being regularly outchanced by his opposition.

Despite not having the same knack for the net as Iggy; Stemps, Mickis and Glencross are three players who come to mind who are much better than he at possessing the puck and driving play north. They will all have bigger roles this season (granted they may face tougher competition although even Iginla started to be buried in his final year to help him get favorable icetime)

Iginla was on the decline and the people he is being replaced by are either "apex" or "pre-apex". It will be nice to not have to watch Jarome as he "skates in to the offensive zone, holds up, curls to the boards, loses the puck" which he did to the point of laughter on some occasions.

Jarome Iginla will always be my favorite athlete but he was declining and I don't think losing him is going to be an issue as people are currently perceiving it.

3) JayBou will be replaced by committee.

You can't really complain about what Jay-BOU gave to the Flames while he was here. His contract ruined him expectations wise, but he is as steady a defender as you will find across the league. I do think, however, with the emergence of Brodie on the blueline and the offensive capabilities of Wideman, Bouw's icetime will be effectively spread out and those we may not have a player playing 27 every night, we will have his role effectively replaced.

---

I agree with quite a bit of this. Particularily 1 & 2... 2012-2013 Iginla is actually fairly replacable (he was only on pace for 20ish goals last year) just giving his minutes (PP & EV) to the next best guys should replace a lot and replacing his growing weakness defensively ought to make up the difference. Kipper was really really really bad last year even low-average performance will be an immense improvement. Jbouw... that's where I disagree. He's not replaceable by committee (not that committee anyways) His PP time can be eaten by Russell and a nice chunk of his EV time can be eaten by a full-season expanded role for Brodie but that leaves a huge chunk that will be manned by a lesser player. Losing him hurts.

I would more predict that the Flames finish pretty close to where they finished last year (Drafting 5-7).

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Saqe

It´s not that the roster looks awful when everyone is healthy but what happens when the injuries start kicking in? There is zero depth to replace first or second line guys.

We get to see what the youngins are made of. As said above, there is nothing to lose. This is how break outs tend to happen. Guy gets injured, call up comes in and surpasses expecations.

[thymebalm]

Thanks for all the thoughtful responses. Forming a follow-up post!

Quickly though, I agree with everyone who thinks Jay-Bou is the biggest loss of the three. And its true, I don't have any reason (yet) to have much faith in anyone beyond Gio/Brodie/Wideman as far the committee goes this year.

[Tinordi]

No depth at all means that if (when) they get injured it will be shart creek.

[stemit14]

I'm surprised how much criticism iginla gets... Boston seems to like what he's bringing right now and I think he'll put up 35+ goals this year.

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

No depth at all means that if (when) they get injured it will be shart creek.

This is fair, but last night we played without Hudler, Cammi and Baertschi. That's 3 injuries up front in the top-6 and the depth survived. (aware of sample size )

On the backend however, losing Giordano/Brodie for any amount of time is really going to put us in a scary position. I believe Wotherspoon will have the tools eventually, but I can't see him coming in this year at anything other than a #6 guy.

[Savvy27]

Originally Posted by stemit14

I'm surprised how much criticism iginla gets... Boston seems to like what he's bringing right now and I think he'll put up 35+ goals this year.

It's pretty simple, Iginla is a complementary player on the Bruins, whereas he was required to be the engine of the Flames (in order for the Flames to be competitive). He couldn't provide what the Flames needed, but he can provide what the Bruins are looking for.

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by Savvy27

It's pretty simple, Iginla is a complementary player on the Bruins, whereas he was required to be the engine of the Flames (in order for the Flames to be competitive). He couldn't provide what the Flames needed, but he can provide what the Bruins are looking for.

Bingo.

He may very well look awesome in Boston, but don't be fooled, his role is quite different that it would have been here.

[MissTeeks]

Calgary Flames‏@NHLFlames2m
FYI: The next set of #Flames training camp cuts will come tomorrow & Thursday.

[BigFlameDog]

Originally Posted by stemit14

I'm surprised how much criticism iginla gets... Boston seems to like what he's bringing right now and I think he'll put up 35+ goals this year.

He just got too old to carry an entire team....he is now part of a great team and will probably do awesome.

If Calgary was able to build a good team as he got older the conversation would be different and the weaknesses less apparent.

IMO

[Enoch Root]

Flames goaltending: will almost certainly be bottom third in the league. I like Ramo and Berra and I am looking forward to them developing - and hopefully one of them can graduate into becoming an NHL starter -but anyone who thinks they are going to be top tier goalies THIS YEAR is flat out dreaming.

Flames defense: will almost certainly be bottom third in the NHL. I am a big Wotherspoon fan. I think the sky is the limit for Sieloff. I like what I have seen from Russell. I think Wideman is one of the most under-rated Flames. I might be Brodie's second biggest fan (we know who #1 is). Having said all that, anyone that think s our defense - THIS YEAR - is going to be anything other than bad is in for a long season of disappointment.

When you combine below average goaltending with below average defense, the result is not good. Period.

Flames forwards: can they surprise to the upside? Absolutely. Are there reasons for optimism? Absolutely.

I would also like to add that I love the way they are playing this year. They work hard and they stand up for each other.

A team is NOT the sum of its parts. I believe the Flames will be better on the ice than they are on paper.

But that will still be bottom 5 in the NHL.

And frankly I don't care because I think we'll see a solid effort all year. And we'll be able to watch the development of the kids. And that will be enough for me.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

Ok. Time for a bold prediction from watching the pre-season and training camp.

We will not be as bad as everyone thinks.

I know that everyone thinks that there is no way that the team will be competitive and is a shoe-in for a top-5 pick. But I find that laughable.

I know we've been told all summer that without Iggy, Kipper and Bouw we are screwed, but I have to lovingly disagree.

...

If a few things all occur, we could potentially finish around 10-12 last in the league. While some might pull their hair out and say that's the worst thing possible, because of how much we're relying on youth, it would mean that a number of players had excellent development years. Specifically, the following players would have to take significant forward steps in their development:

Brodie
Baertschi
Backlund
Horak (probably)

One of Knight or Monahan, or both, would also need to come in and make a positive impact. They don't need to be great but they need to be a net positive on the ice more games than not.

Ramo and/or Berra would have to be in the upper-half of goalies in terms of SVPCT and GAA.

Finally, the vets we're really counting on, like Glencross, Giordano, Wideman, Stajan, and Cammalleri all need to have "good" seasons. They don't need to play the lights out but they can't have an off year like Gio and Cammy did last year.

If ALL THIS happens, we will at least be in most games, and will win far more than others are expecting. Also, none of this, outside of Ramo/Berra outplaying expectations, is that much to expect.

[Prufrock]

Paintball team building during training camp. Looks fun. I like how Russell, Wideman and Glencross were all dressed up in their camo.